If you click on "interactive" you can also click on individual counties and see the demographics of the turnout for each one (race, gender, age group).
I'll be honest - Harris should have caved. Regardless of how busy she is, she's gonna get alot more play from going on the most popular podcast in the country than on hitting another arena speech in a swing state.
And Rogan isnt some hard hitting journalist. He might have pushed her more than the sex podcaster did, but its not gonna be like if she went on Tucker Carlson or something.
Then she would get hit with the "she's weak she bowed down to the demands of a podcast host imagine her against x leader" just leave the offer for a few more days to do an interview if he still demands that she fly to Texas to do it then that is on him.
I suppose if polls were showing more promise for the ticket in Texas, she wouldn't be hesitant to fly down, but maybe she doesn't really want to be interviewed by Rogan. And I'd defer to her judgment on that.
Nevada has always been a big question mark for me. A lot does depend on the idea of any tradition of machine voters (Reid Machine or otherwise) sticking to election day voting. Why do that when voting earlier is an option that's available? (I'm not in Nevada; our state has early voting beginning today ).
Because for many people regarding of affiliation or ideology, voting on "the day" is sacred and special. No other feeling like it. For them voting on another day is like celebrating Christmas not on 25 December or Independence Day not on 4 July.
I think this is true, but up to a point: I don't think it can't fully explain the current NV deficit we're seeing. We know that Nevada is a state where this tradition is less salient -- from shares of early voting not only in 2020 and 2022, but also elections before that. There isn't, to me, a ready explanation for why the NV electorate's views on voting day of vs. early would have shifted significantly since 2016 (or earlier), so presumably there's something else going on under hood that's driving the R+5-6 deficit we're seeing. That could very well be automatic registration/automatic mail ballots, but hard to say.
except polls out today have KH leading in AZ and tied in NC (a gain of 6 pts from CNN previous poll in AZ)...polls from a week or 3 ago don't really matter...and the polls, if you believe them, that will be out this week will be the only polls that are even relevant...and, way too much emphasis is being put on NV...most likely this election will be decided in the hours before we have any concrete idea as to how NV is voting. And there is this little tidbit re' AZ... https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/29/2280661/-CNN-Harris-leads-53-44-among-Arizonans-who-have-already-voted?utm_campaign=recent.... with more repubs having voted early than Dems and KH still with 9 pt lead
This is why I think looking at party ID on the early vote is not very instructive. We do not know how well Harris' pitch to GOP-leaning women is going to play out. We also know that there was little ground game in 2020 when Biden won. We know that Harris' ground game is perhaps the most comprehensive in history and at least as good as Obama '08 which should push our ED margins up from 2020.
Now, is it possible there is a red wave coming from low propensity whites, a realignment from Latinos (not likely after yesterday), or that the Musk/Kirk turnout operation is better than we think? Of course...but this panicking over each Ralston tweet and the PA firewall (which looks like it will be met soon) is getting tired.
I don't know much about the Colombian-American community, but the others are historically red to begin with.
The other thing about the Puerto Rico slam is that they are US citizens and their population is part of our military and has been for more than a century. This wasn't the typical immigrant bashing.
The Puerto Rico joke got the most traction, but he also made another offensive joke about how Latinos love "coming" here and making babies. Don't think it'll be as damaging, but it doesn't help with non-Puerto Rican Latinos either.
Dropping back in after a long time, because Nevada's been weighing on my mind. In the interest of taking the good with the bad, the same poll supports at least some cause for concern in Nevada -- T+6 with the EV reg split is R+5 to R+6 implies that indies are breaking just about even (assuming equivalent crossover voting), whatever advantage from Harris gets from indies is being cancelled out by crossovers working _against_ her, or somewhere in between those two.
OTOH, the Arizona number with the current EV reg split of 35 D/42 R suggests some massive amount of crossover voting favoring Harris or a massive advantage among indies, since Harris is almost at D + indie share of current EVs combined. It's certainly plausible that AZ would have more Rs crossing over for Harris than NV, but I'd be surprised if the difference is of that significant a magnitude. Hard to say for sure, and my intuition says that, in terms of crossover voting and/or indie advantage, the truth is probably somewhere in between the levels that this poll implies for the two states.
You make a lot of good points. I disagree with this minor one though: "I think AZ and Nevada we will know on election night and not be that close. We will also know PA and MI." PA early votes will be slow counted as they were in 2020. It will take days unless it is not close. And AZ? It took days last time and to me, it looks real close again. Why do you not think it will be close and who do you think will win it?
Thanks--good reminder. I recall that the state senate refused to allow counties to process ballots before election day. To me, that's crazy. You do not know how someone voted but you verify that the ballot is proper and should be counted. No reason to hold that up.
The Republican reason for refusing to allow that is simple: They wanted to increase the chances of a Red Mirage, giving greater credence to Trump’s claims of "stolen election" as the result turned Blue later in the night.
But that was because Fetterman was already up when the E-Day votes were counted, and most of the mail votes were Democratic. If it's close, PA could take a while.
I have to pinch my arm when I start becoming nostalgic about Milhous. Who ever thought America would elect a president that would make George W Bush look like a brilliant intellectual and make Nixon seem like a paragon of integrity?
PA was slow counted, but it was evident pretty early on which way the wind was blowing. It was just not evident enough that reputable news orgs felt confident calling it.
I suspect that the election result like everything except 2000, will be known by the time you wake up on Nov 6. It might not be formally called, but the writing will be on the wall one way or another.
With PA, what's going to happen is that Allegheny County (Pittsburgh & suburbs) will announce the tally of their mail-in ballots (currently 180k but could be 250k+) around 8:01pm, giving Harris & most (if not all) statewide Dems a 110k-ish lead before the rural counties start reporting. The lead will slowly be chipped away until all the rural counties come in, giving the GOP a small lead that will disappear once Philly & its suburbs finish their count.
If I remember correctly, Josh Shapiro was declared the winner at 10:15ish in the Governor's race blowout with 56% in. That will be the absolute earliest anything statewide will be called. Fetterman was declared the winner in the US Senate race around 12:45am Election Night with 89% reporting after never trailing due to the big lead Allegheny County mail gave him at 8pm poll close. The count should go quicker but it could be a late night in PA.
Are those analysts you're referring to aware about Clark County turnout? It's notorious for coming in later and more so on election day. Seems to be premature assessments to argue Democrats can't win in a nail biter when election day hasn't even happened yet.
Also, Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto did in fact win re-election in a nail biter in the Senate race back in 2022. Governor Steve Sisolak was also not popular heading to the midterms. Cortez-Masto's leverage in the race came much later as it took forever to count the Clark County votes.
Now many people have moved on from the pandemic since 2022.
I think the constant freakout over the EV in Nevada is silly we don't know how this year will shake out in terms of how people vote compared to other years and as always the best answer to this anxiety is to do something if you can rather than panic. That said HMP can leave Nevada's house districts because they are all 4-6 points to the left of the state this point was made and ignored a lot in 2022 when people were certain that the red wave would hit the house seats as well. I never understood why the Rs didn't fund the senate race other than lack of resources but the Rs seem to have made a last-minute push there which makes sense. Anything from +2 Trump to +2 Harris seems reasonable to me. We will know more after the election if the EV a week out was determinative and informative on the final outcome.
Those undecideds are unlikely to break evenly. That said, if Kamala cuts the margin to 10 or thereabouts that’s indicative of a decent night. Biden lost by 13
If they break 2:1 for Trump then its 54-46, which is close enough that given the trend, you have to start looking at Kansas as a possible swing state if its a good Dem year in 2028 or in 2032 regardless.
Apropos future elections, here is a choice sentence from humor coumnist Alexandra Petri’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, after Jeff Bezos blocked The Washington Post from endorsing her:
"I am endorsing Kamala Harris for president, because I like elections and want to keep having them."
The New York Times released a poll that showed Trump up by 14 in Nebraska (He won by 19 in 2020). However, Kamala Harris was up by 12 in the Omaha district and Trump was only up by 4 in the Lincoln based district. In 2020, Biden won the Omaha seat by 6 and lost the Lincoln seat by 15. I haven't been the biggest fan of the NYT polls this cycle, but this lends credibility to both the Kansas poll but to the narrative that there is something happening in the suburbs that the pollsters aren't picking up in national or statewide polls.
They also polled the Senate and found Osborne up one with Registered and down two with likely voters. Most of the other polls showing this to be close were from Osborne, this would seem to validate them.
In principle, they could be picking up on the suburban Dem upswing, but it is counterbalanced by a rural Dem downswing. But I like your explanation better.
Imho, the House Majority PAC ought to take the money it’s saving in Nevada by cancelling ads in those three House races and spend out ads encouraging people to VOTE! Democrats are dangerously behind in Clark and Washoe counties. Unless there is a trove of Mail Ballots that are just sitting somewhere, this could spell trouble.
Although it could well indicate that Democrats, to a much larger extent than previously, are waiting until Election Day... As ProudNewEnglander points out, there was a thorough debate about Nevada in yesterday’s DownBallot Digest.
Is there any feeling/vibe on the ground in NV that Dems are waiting for ED to vote, kinda like we are hearing in PA? Seems if people are voting EDay in PA, because they want their ballot counted faster, NV would have the same effect since they both took days.
Good question. Everything is so different in this election, including the drastic increase in Independent voters. Jon Ralston, who for years has been unfailing in his election analysis and predictions, has said all these factors make this 2024 election a "unicorn" – and that he may not be able to make a prediction.
I refer to the more thorough discussion on Nevada in yesterday’s DownBallot.
Yep. With each passing day, it gets harder to spin this as benign....and harder to believe the problem will be contained entirely within Nevada state lines.
I won't contradict you with the confidence some others have, but I also can't agree with your conclusion, with a week still to go. I've yet to seen it proven (and given the massive disruptions to historical vote method patterns, I don't think it can be for a number of years yet) that Republicans voting earlier + Democrats voting later = Democrats actually won't vote at the same share of the electorate in the end. That because more Republicans have voted currently, that we know more Republicans will still have voted by the time the last vote is counted. How could we know that? Democrats built up an insane 1 million vote "firewall" in Pennsylvania in 2020 that was ultimately meaningless, a million more Republicans simply voted on election day. How can we know that election day won't feature many more Democrats voting this time around, when the remaining electorate gets bluer and bluer the larger the GOP early vote lead becomes? How do we know anything about vote method in the first presidential election following the massive disruption of 2020?
In most states I'd agree with you but in Nevada, shouldn't the Reid Machine be more effective in mobilizing their soldiers to the polls at more optimal times so as not to let the narrative slip away? Maybe they're playing rope-a-dope and holding off for an election day stampede to keep Republicans overconfident, but that seems a little far-fetched. It seems more likely that the machine has taken on some rust.
I don't know why people are so dismissive of your concern here. It's definitely possible that Harris still wins Nevada, it's not looking looking apocalyptic for Dems or anything, but it's definitely worrisome.
What keeps me a little optimistic for Nevada is that both parties cut spending for the House races, but still the EV vote doesn't look great.
I think in the end people are going to vote when and how they want to vote, regardless of what the machine tells them. There's such an obvious reason why Democrats voted super early in 2020 (and it wasn't to build a positive narrative). That reason is now gone, and we've got plenty of evidence that 2020 e-day Republicans are finally warming up to voting early. Ralston keeps drawing comparisons to 2014 but also the voter pool simply had a bigger Dem edge back then. The declining of which (and the massive increase in unaffiliated) is its own topic. Let's just see how this one goes and maybe in 2028 we can try to draw some apples to apples comparisons in NV early vote.
I don't really understand why anyone is pushing back against you for your point that the Democrats want people to vote early and they're not doing so in expected numbers in Nevada so far. Yes, maybe that will be mitigated by x, y and z, but it's clear evidence and the x, y and z are conjecture.
No. I realize the math doesn't quite work but at this point I'll let it stand since I said it was my final prediction. Perhaps if my numbers are exactly right Harris would still win the popular vote by 1 point.
My feeling is that since we always consider Ralston the best expert on what's actually happening in Nevada, we need to take him just as seriously when he's downbeat on Democratic prospects as when he's upbeat. I realize interpretations of what he's getting at differ somewhat, but the bottom line is that we can't take people seriously only when they're saying things we want to hear. But as for whatever it is having to do with other states, I doubt that.
Absolutely, but Ralston hasn’t quite pointed out the doom and gloom that is reflected by some on here. While continuously pointing out that things are looking good for Republicans, he has also stated multiple times that the dynamics this year are so different that past analyses are not really comparable. Which is essentially him admitting his whole model may busted.
But at the same time, we really shouldn’t take people seriously when they’re selective in what things they listen to as well. The NV polls have been remarkably consistent showing a toss up. There has not been any last minute spending in the competitive House seats by either party that I’m aware of. We have multiple, pretty much daily now, polls showing that Harris is running significantly ahead of the party ID in already cast ballots. This may be bias, but if there is one party that looks like it is in panic mode to me, it sure ain’t the Democrats.
NV could be an outlier from other tossup states, though, and it's certainly conceivable that 3 House districts and a Senate campaign with a weak Republican candidate could diverge from presidential voting. No, I don't understand or relate to anyone who could vote for Trump and then vote against other Republican candidates whose election wouldn't result in any similar kind of extreme crisis for American democracy, but we know they exist.
"Doom-mongering" is needless hyperbole. This board is intended to be a discussion of the state of elections a week away. Attempting to bully alternative takes into silence or submission is really not a good look.
Apologies if that's how it comes across, I was just trying to give a pithy summary of the outlook being presented. I would be genuinely interested to know how people square the seemingly contradictory indicators, I'm by no means an expert on Nevada!
True, but I don't think you're doom-mongering. You call it like you see it, not like you want it, and that's admirable, but there are some other folks, here and outside of this site, who are doing something else.
I detected no element of bullying, nor any effort at silencing or submission, in what Andy wrote. Perhaps those labels may also be needlessly hyperbolic in this instance.
(UPDATE, 11:45am) More than 50 million people have already voted. Over 26.4 million Mail Ballots have been returned, while 23.7 million people have voted Early In-Person. This morning, Nevada and Texas surpassed 50% of their total 2020 turnout. North Carolina achieved the same a few days ago, while Georgia has passed an even more impressive 60% of this milestone.
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for seven swing states plus Florida and Texas:
Other key states, three included because of vital Senate races:
MT 46.5% 284,327<
VA 35.1% 1,586,707
OH 30.6% 1,825,120<
NE 25.6% 247,715<
Other states with strong Early Vote: TN 55.9%, SD 55.1%.
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State. When I update, I’ll change my time-stamp.)
Nope, that was my fault, not McDonald’s. I’ve fixed the posts and moved Texas up into the first one. Although, yes, the Election Project has Texas just shy of 6 million.
Varies by county. While some smaller counties just have the county elections office as a drop point, Philly has 23 drop boxes accessible 24/7 till 8pm on election day, plus 10 elections offices where they can be dropped during business hours. Meanwhile, Allegheny has 9 drop boxes and 4 offices, all only accessible during business hours.
Everybody has an elections office that's functionally a drop box, though that doesn't necessarily work for people working a 9-5, and that one office may be quite a hike for some people. But yes, 33/67 don't specifically have drop boxes, and another 20 only have one. Philly (10), Allegheny (4), Delaware (4), Bucks (3), and Centre (2) are the only counties with multiple elections offices.
Those with multiple drop boxes: Delaware, 37; Philly, 23; Montgomery, 18; Chester, 13; Bucks, 11; Allegheny, 9; Centre, 8; Dauphin, 7; Monroe, 7; Northampton, 7; Lackawanna, 6; Lehigh, 5; Berks, 3; Luzerne, 2. Biden won them collectively 2.51M to 1.60M. Those with one drop box, including Erie and Lebanon, Trump won 510k to 260k. Those without a drop box, including Lancaster, York, Westmoreland, Cumberland, Washington, Butler, Beaver, and Schuylkill, went for Trump 1.26M to 690k.
Edit: Looking through the list, at least 36 "drop boxes" are at elections offices, including all 20 of the counties that have just one drop box. So there are effectively 53 counties with just their elections office, and 14 counties with at least one drop box placed elsewhere, making the partisan divide even more favorable (1.87M Trump-950k Biden vs. 2.51M Biden-1.60M Trump).
I have a metric that I haven't reported on yet: Long Outstanding Ballots. I subtract the # of requests of the past week from the total # of outstanding ballots. It's not perfect but it shows the MINIMUM # of old ballots outstanding.
D - 229,877 (70.21% of party's outstanding)
R - 93,567 (43.13%)
O - 72,796 (62.87%)
This metric shows that Dems & Others have a vast majority of their ballots on the kitchen table or (hopefully) in transit back to the county. On the opposite end, the GOP has a majority of the outstanding ballots still in hand or still in transit TO the voter. In this sense, I'd rather be the Dems but that # still has me a little worried with a week left.
Thank you(the urgency this year is different; this board should know that); I contend that my daily local activism tells me that the Republicans are definitely cannibalizing their E-day vote; can I prove it? No, but after 40 years, I'm no neophyte; the 7 states that matter are razor thin, but I trust our proven GOTV experts as opposed to Elon Musk; let's run through the goal line folks
Tom Bonier has been pulling the data & as of yesterday's update, 40% of GOP ballots in PA were cast by voters who voted on Election Day while the same can be said for only 10% of Democrat ballots. Roughly 5% of each party's ballots were cast by people who DID NOT vote in 2020.
In many states, the voter only needs to receive it, fill it out, and either drop it in a Dropbox or have it postmarked by Election Day. The only time issue is receiving it.
Specifically, in PA, 5pm Eastern today is the deadline to request a ballot. Mail ballots MUST BE RECEIVED by county election officials by 8pm Eastern Election Day in order to be counted.
Agreed and the Harris campaign has teams of ballot chasers(not necessarily even physically in Pennsylvania) making direct voter contacts to these particular voters making sure that the votes are cast(I have personal friends in Florida doing this work)
Another good day for the GOP with their best net returns day. Request advantage for Dems under 500k for the first time since 9/23 with a 5pm deadline for requests. Return percentage advantage below 4% for the first time since 10/4. A light day from Allegheny & Philadelphia kept the returns at their lowest level since 10/17. It doesn't seem Saturday mail has arrived yet so tomorrow's update will (hopefully) be bigger.
Could be anything. Maybe Ds are returning to their previous pattern of voting later than older Rs. Maybe alot of Ds are actually registered as independents. Maybe Rs are just really enthusiastic and its gonna be a red wave.
The polls suggest its a 50/50 race at the presidential level and a relatively easy Dem win in teh House seats and Senate. That hasnt really changed even though people are voting now (and thus the polls should have some actual data).
As I have mentioned in a previous related discussion thread, Clark County turnout trickles in much later. We're likely going to be a substantial amount of election day voters from the county as opposed to early voters.
This was the case back in 2022 and is likely going to continue to be the case this time around.
The City of Milwaukee added 6,151 votes yesterday, including over 900 new registrations (which might be people who moved, or new voters). This was the highest day yet.
The City of Milwaukee is now at 32,237 in person early votes for this cycle. We’re trailing the statewide average, but by less than we did in 2020. Here’s hoping that continues.
Looking at this without any further context, I'd take it as evidence that my pessimism in Florida is merited and that the state is on track to become a republican vote sink.
Note, though, that I'm not predicting that Harris will win Florida, in contradiction to all the behavior of both campaigns. The question is whether Florida is now a "Republican vote sink," and I don't think we yet know the answer to that.
I didn't word it precisely enough but I expect it probably isn't quite there yet (which was what I hoped to convey with "on track"), but will be there very soon, with this year's results pointing towards that trend. Right now we have four consecutive cycles of disappointment out of Florida; I don't think this year is going to reset that trend, and early voting data like the above only reinforces that assumption.
Maybe putting my basic idea differently: in 2020, Florida was about four points to the right of the pivotal swing states. Regardless of the win/lose results, the above data would lead me to expect that Florida will be more than four points to the right of the pivotal swing states (conveniently, the same states as 2020). Hopefully not as bad as ten points, but would anyone be particularly shocked by six? Maybe eight?
By 2028 it could reasonably be expected to hit double digits without a realigning event. Which is entirely possible. But if it does hit there that's where I'd say it's at the point of being a vote sink.
It also depends on how many Republicans vote for Harris. She has been basing a lot of her campaign on making that happen. This may be a pleasant surprise when votes are counted and not only in Florida.
-Election day votes have the potential to increase depending on how many Democrats in the state turnout.
-The remarks by the racist comedian at Trump’s NYC rally could drive Hispanic and Latino voters away from the GOP, especially those who might have otherwise considered voting for Rick Scott.
-We have both Democrats and Independents voting on election day. FL has lots of Independents. They can either swing towards Democrats or Republicans at this point, less towards a third party candidate.
To be clear, I’m not arguing a specific margin between Harris and Trump so much as I’m arguing votes will likely start to tighten the race on Election Day. However, Democrats need Independents in order to win FL at the presidential level and in the Senate race.
I think your 2nd point is the key one. Otherwise, I don't know why we would assume the Election Day vote would be more Democratic than the early votes so far.
Knowing what happened in the 2022 midterms in FL, I’m not assuming anything. There are going to be Democrats still voting in FL on Election Day. I suspect the turnout will improve from 2022 but how much I don’t know. It’s more of an instinctive feeling I have at this point.
I would though keep my eyes peeled on what happens in Miami. There is serious fallout from the racist comedian at Trump’s rally. Kamala Harris as well as Debbie Mucarsel-Powell are both likely to benefit from crossover Hispanic and Latino voters. If Cubans end up voting strongly against Trump, then it’s fair to say the GOP better hold on to their butts.
Just turned in my ballot in CO. I voted for the expanded primary and to take bail away from those charged with first degree murder, but I voted against all the pro-marijuana propositions that would allow pot to be sold in Colorado Springs.
Looking at the Saskatchewan map from yesterday without zooming in, you'd think the NDP did a lot worse than a 26-35 split of seats. It's also pretty hard to see how they achieve a majority. They currently lead in 10 of the 15 seats decided by under 15%. It's easy enough to see them picking up the final two Saskatoon seats in the future (one might still flip this time around), and the Prince Albert seats, where they trail by 2% and 8%, aren't that big of reaches. But where that last seat for a majority would come from is a big question, and we're a decade out from another round of redistricting. Of the Saskatchewan Party's 31 other seats, they won 23 by at least 30%. The remaining 8: the Moose Jaw seats by 14% and 22%, the Yorkton seat by 19%, the east Regina burbs seat by 19%, the Battleford seat by 23%, the west Saskatoon burbs seat by 23%, and two rural seats by 22% and 26%.
Even though they will have fallen short, NDP did a lot better than last time. The 2020 Saskatchewan election saw them winning 13 seats and 31% of the vote. They're near 40% of the vote and ~26 seats now.
In their last polls before ED 2022, Emerson had Blake Masters and Kari Lake ahead in AZ, Oz ahead in PA, and Laxalt ahead of Cortez-Masto (by 5!!) in NV.
The CT result is strange unless one believes in the theory of a rightward swing in the localized NYC area but not so much elsewhere (Prez race is tied; was Biden +11).
The 2nd fits that label more cleanly; the 5th is a conglomeration of different communities. Diverse Waterbury, Danbury, Meriden, and New Britain comprise over 300k of its population, upscale Hartford burbs comprise another 100k, and moderate white NYC exurbs comprise another 200k. Even the white rural areas have another 20k that are a cultural and political extension of the Berkshires.
A federal judge tosses a GOP lawsuit challenging the votes of U.S. citizens living abroad, including military members, after a Michigan judge tossed a similar case & a North Carolina judge denied a request for some voters’ ballots to be set aside
GA has it here: https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout
If you click on "interactive" you can also click on individual counties and see the demographics of the turnout for each one (race, gender, age group).
GA has it here: https://www.georgiavotes.com At the top, click on "county." % of 2020 is on the left.
It doesn't count E-day votes in 2020. So % is % of 2020 early voting.
I'll be honest - Harris should have caved. Regardless of how busy she is, she's gonna get alot more play from going on the most popular podcast in the country than on hitting another arena speech in a swing state.
And Rogan isnt some hard hitting journalist. He might have pushed her more than the sex podcaster did, but its not gonna be like if she went on Tucker Carlson or something.
Then she would get hit with the "she's weak she bowed down to the demands of a podcast host imagine her against x leader" just leave the offer for a few more days to do an interview if he still demands that she fly to Texas to do it then that is on him.
No she wouldn't. No one is that in the weeds.
I suppose if polls were showing more promise for the ticket in Texas, she wouldn't be hesitant to fly down, but maybe she doesn't really want to be interviewed by Rogan. And I'd defer to her judgment on that.
Am I the only one here who has never listened to a Joe Rogan podcast?
I am honestly more familiar with the Negro League baseball legend and Hall of Famer by the same name.
Joe who?
I agree - I think she should have done it. I also have faith in her to handle whatever Rogan would throw at her.
Nevada has always been a big question mark for me. A lot does depend on the idea of any tradition of machine voters (Reid Machine or otherwise) sticking to election day voting. Why do that when voting earlier is an option that's available? (I'm not in Nevada; our state has early voting beginning today ).
Because for many people regarding of affiliation or ideology, voting on "the day" is sacred and special. No other feeling like it. For them voting on another day is like celebrating Christmas not on 25 December or Independence Day not on 4 July.
I think this is true, but up to a point: I don't think it can't fully explain the current NV deficit we're seeing. We know that Nevada is a state where this tradition is less salient -- from shares of early voting not only in 2020 and 2022, but also elections before that. There isn't, to me, a ready explanation for why the NV electorate's views on voting day of vs. early would have shifted significantly since 2016 (or earlier), so presumably there's something else going on under hood that's driving the R+5-6 deficit we're seeing. That could very well be automatic registration/automatic mail ballots, but hard to say.
But it seems that the NV House seats are pretty safe, judging by the outside group spending decisions. And the polling looks strong for Rosen as well.
Sorry, this was supposed to be a response to Gina Mann.
except polls out today have KH leading in AZ and tied in NC (a gain of 6 pts from CNN previous poll in AZ)...polls from a week or 3 ago don't really matter...and the polls, if you believe them, that will be out this week will be the only polls that are even relevant...and, way too much emphasis is being put on NV...most likely this election will be decided in the hours before we have any concrete idea as to how NV is voting. And there is this little tidbit re' AZ... https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/29/2280661/-CNN-Harris-leads-53-44-among-Arizonans-who-have-already-voted?utm_campaign=recent.... with more repubs having voted early than Dems and KH still with 9 pt lead
This is why I think looking at party ID on the early vote is not very instructive. We do not know how well Harris' pitch to GOP-leaning women is going to play out. We also know that there was little ground game in 2020 when Biden won. We know that Harris' ground game is perhaps the most comprehensive in history and at least as good as Obama '08 which should push our ED margins up from 2020.
Now, is it possible there is a red wave coming from low propensity whites, a realignment from Latinos (not likely after yesterday), or that the Musk/Kirk turnout operation is better than we think? Of course...but this panicking over each Ralston tweet and the PA firewall (which looks like it will be met soon) is getting tired.
There are no machine issues, except for inside your mind
I don't know how much Cubans, Venezuelans or Colombians will be angry about slams of Puerto Rico.
I don't know much about the Colombian-American community, but the others are historically red to begin with.
The other thing about the Puerto Rico slam is that they are US citizens and their population is part of our military and has been for more than a century. This wasn't the typical immigrant bashing.
I'm quite aware of that and pointed it out yesterday.
The Puerto Rico joke got the most traction, but he also made another offensive joke about how Latinos love "coming" here and making babies. Don't think it'll be as damaging, but it doesn't help with non-Puerto Rican Latinos either.
True.
Dropping back in after a long time, because Nevada's been weighing on my mind. In the interest of taking the good with the bad, the same poll supports at least some cause for concern in Nevada -- T+6 with the EV reg split is R+5 to R+6 implies that indies are breaking just about even (assuming equivalent crossover voting), whatever advantage from Harris gets from indies is being cancelled out by crossovers working _against_ her, or somewhere in between those two.
OTOH, the Arizona number with the current EV reg split of 35 D/42 R suggests some massive amount of crossover voting favoring Harris or a massive advantage among indies, since Harris is almost at D + indie share of current EVs combined. It's certainly plausible that AZ would have more Rs crossing over for Harris than NV, but I'd be surprised if the difference is of that significant a magnitude. Hard to say for sure, and my intuition says that, in terms of crossover voting and/or indie advantage, the truth is probably somewhere in between the levels that this poll implies for the two states.
You make a lot of good points. I disagree with this minor one though: "I think AZ and Nevada we will know on election night and not be that close. We will also know PA and MI." PA early votes will be slow counted as they were in 2020. It will take days unless it is not close. And AZ? It took days last time and to me, it looks real close again. Why do you not think it will be close and who do you think will win it?
Thanks--good reminder. I recall that the state senate refused to allow counties to process ballots before election day. To me, that's crazy. You do not know how someone voted but you verify that the ballot is proper and should be counted. No reason to hold that up.
The PA Senate is Republican and they love chaos.
The Republican reason for refusing to allow that is simple: They wanted to increase the chances of a Red Mirage, giving greater credence to Trump’s claims of "stolen election" as the result turned Blue later in the night.
But that was because Fetterman was already up when the E-Day votes were counted, and most of the mail votes were Democratic. If it's close, PA could take a while.
how about before they go to bed Tuesday night? :-)
It may well be called before you intrepid, insomniac election watchers go to bed at 7am. /s
My curfew is 2 am pst...which I started in 1960...JFK v. RMN
I have to pinch my arm when I start becoming nostalgic about Milhous. Who ever thought America would elect a president that would make George W Bush look like a brilliant intellectual and make Nixon seem like a paragon of integrity?
PA was slow counted, but it was evident pretty early on which way the wind was blowing. It was just not evident enough that reputable news orgs felt confident calling it.
I suspect that the election result like everything except 2000, will be known by the time you wake up on Nov 6. It might not be formally called, but the writing will be on the wall one way or another.
Written in ketchup on the wall in Mar-a-Lago.
With PA, what's going to happen is that Allegheny County (Pittsburgh & suburbs) will announce the tally of their mail-in ballots (currently 180k but could be 250k+) around 8:01pm, giving Harris & most (if not all) statewide Dems a 110k-ish lead before the rural counties start reporting. The lead will slowly be chipped away until all the rural counties come in, giving the GOP a small lead that will disappear once Philly & its suburbs finish their count.
If I remember correctly, Josh Shapiro was declared the winner at 10:15ish in the Governor's race blowout with 56% in. That will be the absolute earliest anything statewide will be called. Fetterman was declared the winner in the US Senate race around 12:45am Election Night with 89% reporting after never trailing due to the big lead Allegheny County mail gave him at 8pm poll close. The count should go quicker but it could be a late night in PA.
Are those analysts you're referring to aware about Clark County turnout? It's notorious for coming in later and more so on election day. Seems to be premature assessments to argue Democrats can't win in a nail biter when election day hasn't even happened yet.
Also, Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto did in fact win re-election in a nail biter in the Senate race back in 2022. Governor Steve Sisolak was also not popular heading to the midterms. Cortez-Masto's leverage in the race came much later as it took forever to count the Clark County votes.
Now many people have moved on from the pandemic since 2022.
I think the constant freakout over the EV in Nevada is silly we don't know how this year will shake out in terms of how people vote compared to other years and as always the best answer to this anxiety is to do something if you can rather than panic. That said HMP can leave Nevada's house districts because they are all 4-6 points to the left of the state this point was made and ignored a lot in 2022 when people were certain that the red wave would hit the house seats as well. I never understood why the Rs didn't fund the senate race other than lack of resources but the Rs seem to have made a last-minute push there which makes sense. Anything from +2 Trump to +2 Harris seems reasonable to me. We will know more after the election if the EV a week out was determinative and informative on the final outcome.
Those undecideds are unlikely to break evenly. That said, if Kamala cuts the margin to 10 or thereabouts that’s indicative of a decent night. Biden lost by 13
If they break 2:1 for Trump then its 54-46, which is close enough that given the trend, you have to start looking at Kansas as a possible swing state if its a good Dem year in 2028 or in 2032 regardless.
Of course trends dont last forever.
Totally. And a 2:1 break would be great!
Considering it’s still Kansas and I’m persuaded by the “2020 baseline” argument I think a 3:1 break is likelier, which still gets you to roughly 55-45
It's possible those some of those votes are uniquely anti-Trump in the way they wouldn't be for a Hawley/Vance/DeSantis/Haley.
In Kansas, that could especially be the case, considering how firm the line between moderate and conservative Rs once was
Apropos future elections, here is a choice sentence from humor coumnist Alexandra Petri’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, after Jeff Bezos blocked The Washington Post from endorsing her:
"I am endorsing Kamala Harris for president, because I like elections and want to keep having them."
– Alexandra Petri
The New York Times released a poll that showed Trump up by 14 in Nebraska (He won by 19 in 2020). However, Kamala Harris was up by 12 in the Omaha district and Trump was only up by 4 in the Lincoln based district. In 2020, Biden won the Omaha seat by 6 and lost the Lincoln seat by 15. I haven't been the biggest fan of the NYT polls this cycle, but this lends credibility to both the Kansas poll but to the narrative that there is something happening in the suburbs that the pollsters aren't picking up in national or statewide polls.
They also polled the Senate and found Osborne up one with Registered and down two with likely voters. Most of the other polls showing this to be close were from Osborne, this would seem to validate them.
In principle, they could be picking up on the suburban Dem upswing, but it is counterbalanced by a rural Dem downswing. But I like your explanation better.
*checks calendar*
Holy cow! One week until Election Day!
Imho, the House Majority PAC ought to take the money it’s saving in Nevada by cancelling ads in those three House races and spend out ads encouraging people to VOTE! Democrats are dangerously behind in Clark and Washoe counties. Unless there is a trove of Mail Ballots that are just sitting somewhere, this could spell trouble.
Although it could well indicate that Democrats, to a much larger extent than previously, are waiting until Election Day... As ProudNewEnglander points out, there was a thorough debate about Nevada in yesterday’s DownBallot Digest.
Jon Ralston just now:
Small batch of Clark mail came in while we slept. helped Dems cut into GOP statewide edge, but not by a lot.
– GOP +38,000, or 5.3 percent
Full blog update later today. (Tweet feed & link to Ralston’s Early Voting Blog below.)
https://nitter.poast.org/RalstonReports
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
Is there any feeling/vibe on the ground in NV that Dems are waiting for ED to vote, kinda like we are hearing in PA? Seems if people are voting EDay in PA, because they want their ballot counted faster, NV would have the same effect since they both took days.
Good question. Everything is so different in this election, including the drastic increase in Independent voters. Jon Ralston, who for years has been unfailing in his election analysis and predictions, has said all these factors make this 2024 election a "unicorn" – and that he may not be able to make a prediction.
I refer to the more thorough discussion on Nevada in yesterday’s DownBallot.
Yep. With each passing day, it gets harder to spin this as benign....and harder to believe the problem will be contained entirely within Nevada state lines.
The first line in your comment is needlessly hostile. Do not engage that way.
I am asking you to find a way to restrain yourself. Thank you.
There's a difference between ignoring things and disagreeing with them, isn't there?
What "all indications"?
You're talking about Nevada?
It really isn't.
I won't contradict you with the confidence some others have, but I also can't agree with your conclusion, with a week still to go. I've yet to seen it proven (and given the massive disruptions to historical vote method patterns, I don't think it can be for a number of years yet) that Republicans voting earlier + Democrats voting later = Democrats actually won't vote at the same share of the electorate in the end. That because more Republicans have voted currently, that we know more Republicans will still have voted by the time the last vote is counted. How could we know that? Democrats built up an insane 1 million vote "firewall" in Pennsylvania in 2020 that was ultimately meaningless, a million more Republicans simply voted on election day. How can we know that election day won't feature many more Democrats voting this time around, when the remaining electorate gets bluer and bluer the larger the GOP early vote lead becomes? How do we know anything about vote method in the first presidential election following the massive disruption of 2020?
In most states I'd agree with you but in Nevada, shouldn't the Reid Machine be more effective in mobilizing their soldiers to the polls at more optimal times so as not to let the narrative slip away? Maybe they're playing rope-a-dope and holding off for an election day stampede to keep Republicans overconfident, but that seems a little far-fetched. It seems more likely that the machine has taken on some rust.
They've given a crap about the narrative and banking early votes in the past but decided to take this year off?
I don't know why people are so dismissive of your concern here. It's definitely possible that Harris still wins Nevada, it's not looking looking apocalyptic for Dems or anything, but it's definitely worrisome.
What keeps me a little optimistic for Nevada is that both parties cut spending for the House races, but still the EV vote doesn't look great.
I think in the end people are going to vote when and how they want to vote, regardless of what the machine tells them. There's such an obvious reason why Democrats voted super early in 2020 (and it wasn't to build a positive narrative). That reason is now gone, and we've got plenty of evidence that 2020 e-day Republicans are finally warming up to voting early. Ralston keeps drawing comparisons to 2014 but also the voter pool simply had a bigger Dem edge back then. The declining of which (and the massive increase in unaffiliated) is its own topic. Let's just see how this one goes and maybe in 2028 we can try to draw some apples to apples comparisons in NV early vote.
I don't really understand why anyone is pushing back against you for your point that the Democrats want people to vote early and they're not doing so in expected numbers in Nevada so far. Yes, maybe that will be mitigated by x, y and z, but it's clear evidence and the x, y and z are conjecture.
Did you work out your new spread state by state yet?
No. I realize the math doesn't quite work but at this point I'll let it stand since I said it was my final prediction. Perhaps if my numbers are exactly right Harris would still win the popular vote by 1 point.
My feeling is that since we always consider Ralston the best expert on what's actually happening in Nevada, we need to take him just as seriously when he's downbeat on Democratic prospects as when he's upbeat. I realize interpretations of what he's getting at differ somewhat, but the bottom line is that we can't take people seriously only when they're saying things we want to hear. But as for whatever it is having to do with other states, I doubt that.
He's worth listening to 80% of the time. In the leadup to elections, he's a typically hyperbolic reporter looking to get/keep people engaged.
Absolutely, but Ralston hasn’t quite pointed out the doom and gloom that is reflected by some on here. While continuously pointing out that things are looking good for Republicans, he has also stated multiple times that the dynamics this year are so different that past analyses are not really comparable. Which is essentially him admitting his whole model may busted.
But at the same time, we really shouldn’t take people seriously when they’re selective in what things they listen to as well. The NV polls have been remarkably consistent showing a toss up. There has not been any last minute spending in the competitive House seats by either party that I’m aware of. We have multiple, pretty much daily now, polls showing that Harris is running significantly ahead of the party ID in already cast ballots. This may be bias, but if there is one party that looks like it is in panic mode to me, it sure ain’t the Democrats.
NV could be an outlier from other tossup states, though, and it's certainly conceivable that 3 House districts and a Senate campaign with a weak Republican candidate could diverge from presidential voting. No, I don't understand or relate to anyone who could vote for Trump and then vote against other Republican candidates whose election wouldn't result in any similar kind of extreme crisis for American democracy, but we know they exist.
Surely the apparent confidence of HMP in the Vegas defenses cuts rather sharply across the doom-mongering about Nevada's mail ballot numbers?
"Doom-mongering" is needless hyperbole. This board is intended to be a discussion of the state of elections a week away. Attempting to bully alternative takes into silence or submission is really not a good look.
Apologies if that's how it comes across, I was just trying to give a pithy summary of the outlook being presented. I would be genuinely interested to know how people square the seemingly contradictory indicators, I'm by no means an expert on Nevada!
Thanks for clarifying.
True, but I don't think you're doom-mongering. You call it like you see it, not like you want it, and that's admirable, but there are some other folks, here and outside of this site, who are doing something else.
I detected no element of bullying, nor any effort at silencing or submission, in what Andy wrote. Perhaps those labels may also be needlessly hyperbolic in this instance.
BREAKING: 50 million Americans have voted!
(UPDATE, 11:45am) More than 50 million people have already voted. Over 26.4 million Mail Ballots have been returned, while 23.7 million people have voted Early In-Person. This morning, Nevada and Texas surpassed 50% of their total 2020 turnout. North Carolina achieved the same a few days ago, while Georgia has passed an even more impressive 60% of this milestone.
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for seven swing states plus Florida and Texas:
GA 60.9% 3,058,097<
NC 55.9% 3,101,657*<
TX 52.7% 5,981,769<
NV 50.6% 712,783<
FL 46.1% 5,141,915*<
AZ 41% 1,400,797
MI 34% 1,896,105
WI 29.9% 989,678<
PA 20.8% 1,448,841<
*) States that report party registration.
<) States updated today.
Other key states, three included because of vital Senate races:
MT 46.5% 284,327<
VA 35.1% 1,586,707
OH 30.6% 1,825,120<
NE 25.6% 247,715<
Other states with strong Early Vote: TN 55.9%, SD 55.1%.
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State. When I update, I’ll change my time-stamp.)
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Nope, that was my fault, not McDonald’s. I’ve fixed the posts and moved Texas up into the first one. Although, yes, the Election Project has Texas just shy of 6 million.
Tuesday's PA Mail-In Ballot Update is in.
39,017 new requests, R+7,968. Overall request advantage now down to D+492,231
70,918 ballot returns, D+687. Overall ballot advantage now D+381,782. 8.2k short of the (once) popular firewall, 58.2k below my firewall
Total Requests:
D - 1,177,242 (55.17%)
R - 685,011 (32.10%)
O - 271,702 (12.73%)
Total - 2,133,955
Total Returns:
D - 849,849 (72.19% return rate)
R - 468,067 (68.33%)
O - 155,909 (57.38%)
Total - 1,473,825
Given the advent of drop boxes, the last part isn't necessarily part of the equation. Still risky.
How do drop boxes in PA work? I keep hearing this term “satellite voting” thrown around is it like the drop boxes in WA/OR?
Varies by county. While some smaller counties just have the county elections office as a drop point, Philly has 23 drop boxes accessible 24/7 till 8pm on election day, plus 10 elections offices where they can be dropped during business hours. Meanwhile, Allegheny has 9 drop boxes and 4 offices, all only accessible during business hours.
https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/vote/voter-support/mail-in-and-absentee-ballot/return-ballot.html
My county does not have a drop box. Most of the ones around me do not either.
Everybody has an elections office that's functionally a drop box, though that doesn't necessarily work for people working a 9-5, and that one office may be quite a hike for some people. But yes, 33/67 don't specifically have drop boxes, and another 20 only have one. Philly (10), Allegheny (4), Delaware (4), Bucks (3), and Centre (2) are the only counties with multiple elections offices.
Those with multiple drop boxes: Delaware, 37; Philly, 23; Montgomery, 18; Chester, 13; Bucks, 11; Allegheny, 9; Centre, 8; Dauphin, 7; Monroe, 7; Northampton, 7; Lackawanna, 6; Lehigh, 5; Berks, 3; Luzerne, 2. Biden won them collectively 2.51M to 1.60M. Those with one drop box, including Erie and Lebanon, Trump won 510k to 260k. Those without a drop box, including Lancaster, York, Westmoreland, Cumberland, Washington, Butler, Beaver, and Schuylkill, went for Trump 1.26M to 690k.
Edit: Looking through the list, at least 36 "drop boxes" are at elections offices, including all 20 of the counties that have just one drop box. So there are effectively 53 counties with just their elections office, and 14 counties with at least one drop box placed elsewhere, making the partisan divide even more favorable (1.87M Trump-950k Biden vs. 2.51M Biden-1.60M Trump).
I do not think this is true; perhaps you are mistaken
I have a metric that I haven't reported on yet: Long Outstanding Ballots. I subtract the # of requests of the past week from the total # of outstanding ballots. It's not perfect but it shows the MINIMUM # of old ballots outstanding.
D - 229,877 (70.21% of party's outstanding)
R - 93,567 (43.13%)
O - 72,796 (62.87%)
This metric shows that Dems & Others have a vast majority of their ballots on the kitchen table or (hopefully) in transit back to the county. On the opposite end, the GOP has a majority of the outstanding ballots still in hand or still in transit TO the voter. In this sense, I'd rather be the Dems but that # still has me a little worried with a week left.
Thank you(the urgency this year is different; this board should know that); I contend that my daily local activism tells me that the Republicans are definitely cannibalizing their E-day vote; can I prove it? No, but after 40 years, I'm no neophyte; the 7 states that matter are razor thin, but I trust our proven GOTV experts as opposed to Elon Musk; let's run through the goal line folks
Tom Bonier has been pulling the data & as of yesterday's update, 40% of GOP ballots in PA were cast by voters who voted on Election Day while the same can be said for only 10% of Democrat ballots. Roughly 5% of each party's ballots were cast by people who DID NOT vote in 2020.
Thanks for the raw data; appreciated
In many states, the voter only needs to receive it, fill it out, and either drop it in a Dropbox or have it postmarked by Election Day. The only time issue is receiving it.
Specifically, in PA, 5pm Eastern today is the deadline to request a ballot. Mail ballots MUST BE RECEIVED by county election officials by 8pm Eastern Election Day in order to be counted.
Agreed and the Harris campaign has teams of ballot chasers(not necessarily even physically in Pennsylvania) making direct voter contacts to these particular voters making sure that the votes are cast(I have personal friends in Florida doing this work)
Another good day for the GOP with their best net returns day. Request advantage for Dems under 500k for the first time since 9/23 with a 5pm deadline for requests. Return percentage advantage below 4% for the first time since 10/4. A light day from Allegheny & Philadelphia kept the returns at their lowest level since 10/17. It doesn't seem Saturday mail has arrived yet so tomorrow's update will (hopefully) be bigger.
That’s some sloooooow mail
I wonder honestly what is going on in NV. Did the Reid machine die with him?
What's going on are people are trying way too hard to read the entrails.
Could be anything. Maybe Ds are returning to their previous pattern of voting later than older Rs. Maybe alot of Ds are actually registered as independents. Maybe Rs are just really enthusiastic and its gonna be a red wave.
The polls suggest its a 50/50 race at the presidential level and a relatively easy Dem win in teh House seats and Senate. That hasnt really changed even though people are voting now (and thus the polls should have some actual data).
Clearly not. What in election results since his death supports such a claim?
As I have mentioned in a previous related discussion thread, Clark County turnout trickles in much later. We're likely going to be a substantial amount of election day voters from the county as opposed to early voters.
This was the case back in 2022 and is likely going to continue to be the case this time around.
Thanks.
The City of Milwaukee added 6,151 votes yesterday, including over 900 new registrations (which might be people who moved, or new voters). This was the highest day yet.
The City of Milwaukee is now at 32,237 in person early votes for this cycle. We’re trailing the statewide average, but by less than we did in 2020. Here’s hoping that continues.
I’ll take it!
Thanks.
FLORIDA Early Vote:
@FloridaGOP +600,602 over @FlaDems
– GOP: 2,341,366 (45.1%)
– DEM: 1,740,764 (33.5%)
– Other: 621,662 (21.4%)
Statewide turnout is R+11.5
https://nitter.poast.org/meyer0656/status/1851256972022333904#m
https://www.freshtake.vote/2024G/
How does that compare to prior cycles?
Looking at this without any further context, I'd take it as evidence that my pessimism in Florida is merited and that the state is on track to become a republican vote sink.
That depends a lot on how the "other" vote breaks.
It does, but even a 75-25 break in our favor from Other would give Rs the win, if this was representative of the total vote.
And assuming equal votes by Republicans and Democrats for the other party's candidate.
Note, though, that I'm not predicting that Harris will win Florida, in contradiction to all the behavior of both campaigns. The question is whether Florida is now a "Republican vote sink," and I don't think we yet know the answer to that.
Yeah, that's fair.
I didn't word it precisely enough but I expect it probably isn't quite there yet (which was what I hoped to convey with "on track"), but will be there very soon, with this year's results pointing towards that trend. Right now we have four consecutive cycles of disappointment out of Florida; I don't think this year is going to reset that trend, and early voting data like the above only reinforces that assumption.
Maybe putting my basic idea differently: in 2020, Florida was about four points to the right of the pivotal swing states. Regardless of the win/lose results, the above data would lead me to expect that Florida will be more than four points to the right of the pivotal swing states (conveniently, the same states as 2020). Hopefully not as bad as ten points, but would anyone be particularly shocked by six? Maybe eight?
By 2028 it could reasonably be expected to hit double digits without a realigning event. Which is entirely possible. But if it does hit there that's where I'd say it's at the point of being a vote sink.
It also depends on how many Republicans vote for Harris. She has been basing a lot of her campaign on making that happen. This may be a pleasant surprise when votes are counted and not only in Florida.
I believe the gaps by Democrats and Republicans are likely to narrow more on election day as opposed to now.
Why do you believe that?
Because of the following:
-Election day votes have the potential to increase depending on how many Democrats in the state turnout.
-The remarks by the racist comedian at Trump’s NYC rally could drive Hispanic and Latino voters away from the GOP, especially those who might have otherwise considered voting for Rick Scott.
-We have both Democrats and Independents voting on election day. FL has lots of Independents. They can either swing towards Democrats or Republicans at this point, less towards a third party candidate.
To be clear, I’m not arguing a specific margin between Harris and Trump so much as I’m arguing votes will likely start to tighten the race on Election Day. However, Democrats need Independents in order to win FL at the presidential level and in the Senate race.
I think your 2nd point is the key one. Otherwise, I don't know why we would assume the Election Day vote would be more Democratic than the early votes so far.
Knowing what happened in the 2022 midterms in FL, I’m not assuming anything. There are going to be Democrats still voting in FL on Election Day. I suspect the turnout will improve from 2022 but how much I don’t know. It’s more of an instinctive feeling I have at this point.
I would though keep my eyes peeled on what happens in Miami. There is serious fallout from the racist comedian at Trump’s rally. Kamala Harris as well as Debbie Mucarsel-Powell are both likely to benefit from crossover Hispanic and Latino voters. If Cubans end up voting strongly against Trump, then it’s fair to say the GOP better hold on to their butts.
Just turned in my ballot in CO. I voted for the expanded primary and to take bail away from those charged with first degree murder, but I voted against all the pro-marijuana propositions that would allow pot to be sold in Colorado Springs.
Can I ask for your reasoning behind the no vote on cannabis? Just curious, given COs position and track record
I have a friend who’s addicted to it and it’s wreaked havoc in his life.
understandable. It is a drug like any other.
Looking at the Saskatchewan map from yesterday without zooming in, you'd think the NDP did a lot worse than a 26-35 split of seats. It's also pretty hard to see how they achieve a majority. They currently lead in 10 of the 15 seats decided by under 15%. It's easy enough to see them picking up the final two Saskatoon seats in the future (one might still flip this time around), and the Prince Albert seats, where they trail by 2% and 8%, aren't that big of reaches. But where that last seat for a majority would come from is a big question, and we're a decade out from another round of redistricting. Of the Saskatchewan Party's 31 other seats, they won 23 by at least 30%. The remaining 8: the Moose Jaw seats by 14% and 22%, the Yorkton seat by 19%, the east Regina burbs seat by 19%, the Battleford seat by 23%, the west Saskatoon burbs seat by 23%, and two rural seats by 22% and 26%.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/saskatchewan/2024/results/#/
Even though they will have fallen short, NDP did a lot better than last time. The 2020 Saskatchewan election saw them winning 13 seats and 31% of the vote. They're near 40% of the vote and ~26 seats now.
Doubling your seat count is a great result
NC Elon University: Tied at 47.
https://www.witn.com/2024/10/29/latest-elon-university-poll-says-presidential-race-nc-is-dead-heat/
Same as the new tied poll in the new WRAL/SUSA for NC
https://www.wral.com/story/trump-harris-in-dead-heat-for-nc-with-a-week-left-to-election-day-wral-news-poll-finds/21694936/
downballot looks good in this poll as well
Governor: D+21
LG: D+5
AG: D+5
SoS: D+5
School: D+8
but still lots of undecideds
https://eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net/eu3/sites/819/2024/10/ElonPoll_Report_102924.pdf
Incredible numbers. Almost too good to be true. Did poll include the SC race?
they did not include the SC race
Emerson:
Michigan Trump 49-48. Slotkin 48-46
CA 22: Salas 47-45
CT 5: Hayes 49-45
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/blog/
susquehanna Poll of Michigan. Harris at 52% and +5.
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1851267833658744975
I feel confident Emerson's lean is at least R+2. Probably more.
Of all the swings, MI will have the largest margin, save for the blue dot.
FWIW, over at TargetEarly, I see that GA has now inched ahead of 2020 in terms of modeled party at ED -8 days.
Now, WI, MI, and GA are ahead of their 2020 spread at this time. NE-02 as well from Simon's comments.
NC, AZ, PA, and NV are behind.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=GA&view_type=state
With the expected overall shift towards the GOP this time, I will take it.
In their last polls before ED 2022, Emerson had Blake Masters and Kari Lake ahead in AZ, Oz ahead in PA, and Laxalt ahead of Cortez-Masto (by 5!!) in NV.
So yeah.
Thank you for the sanity checking here...I need it!
The CT result is strange unless one believes in the theory of a rightward swing in the localized NYC area but not so much elsewhere (Prez race is tied; was Biden +11).
CT05 she is facing the same opponent as she did in 2022 when she won by 1% and is a PVI d+3 district
But that's with a sample that has a margin 11 points worse than 2020 and 4 points worse than 2016, in a district that, if anything, is Dem-trending.
Is CT-5 not the most rural, WWC part of CT?
The 2nd fits that label more cleanly; the 5th is a conglomeration of different communities. Diverse Waterbury, Danbury, Meriden, and New Britain comprise over 300k of its population, upscale Hartford burbs comprise another 100k, and moderate white NYC exurbs comprise another 200k. Even the white rural areas have another 20k that are a cultural and political extension of the Berkshires.
A federal judge tosses a GOP lawsuit challenging the votes of U.S. citizens living abroad, including military members, after a Michigan judge tossed a similar case & a North Carolina judge denied a request for some voters’ ballots to be set aside
https://x.com/hansilowang/status/1851293369365856503