In their last polls before ED 2022, Emerson had Blake Masters and Kari Lake ahead in AZ, Oz ahead in PA, and Laxalt ahead of Cortez-Masto (by 5!!) in NV.
The CT result is strange unless one believes in the theory of a rightward swing in the localized NYC area but not so much elsewhere (Prez race is tied; was Biden +11).
The 2nd fits that label more cleanly; the 5th is a conglomeration of different communities. Diverse Waterbury, Danbury, Meriden, and New Britain comprise over 300k of its population, upscale Hartford burbs comprise another 100k, and moderate white NYC exurbs comprise another 200k. Even the white rural areas have another 20k that are a cultural and political extension of the Berkshires.
Emerson:
Michigan Trump 49-48. Slotkin 48-46
CA 22: Salas 47-45
CT 5: Hayes 49-45
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/blog/
susquehanna Poll of Michigan. Harris at 52% and +5.
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1851267833658744975
I feel confident Emerson's lean is at least R+2. Probably more.
Of all the swings, MI will have the largest margin, save for the blue dot.
FWIW, over at TargetEarly, I see that GA has now inched ahead of 2020 in terms of modeled party at ED -8 days.
Now, WI, MI, and GA are ahead of their 2020 spread at this time. NE-02 as well from Simon's comments.
NC, AZ, PA, and NV are behind.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=GA&view_type=state
With the expected overall shift towards the GOP this time, I will take it.
In their last polls before ED 2022, Emerson had Blake Masters and Kari Lake ahead in AZ, Oz ahead in PA, and Laxalt ahead of Cortez-Masto (by 5!!) in NV.
So yeah.
Thank you for the sanity checking here...I need it!
The CT result is strange unless one believes in the theory of a rightward swing in the localized NYC area but not so much elsewhere (Prez race is tied; was Biden +11).
CT05 she is facing the same opponent as she did in 2022 when she won by 1% and is a PVI d+3 district
But that's with a sample that has a margin 11 points worse than 2020 and 4 points worse than 2016, in a district that, if anything, is Dem-trending.
Is CT-5 not the most rural, WWC part of CT?
The 2nd fits that label more cleanly; the 5th is a conglomeration of different communities. Diverse Waterbury, Danbury, Meriden, and New Britain comprise over 300k of its population, upscale Hartford burbs comprise another 100k, and moderate white NYC exurbs comprise another 200k. Even the white rural areas have another 20k that are a cultural and political extension of the Berkshires.