I feel confident Emerson's lean is at least R+2. Probably more.
Of all the swings, MI will have the largest margin, save for the blue dot.
FWIW, over at TargetEarly, I see that GA has now inched ahead of 2020 in terms of modeled party at ED -8 days.
Now, WI, MI, and GA are ahead of their 2020 spread at this time. NE-02 as well from Simon's comments.
NC, AZ, PA, and NV are behind.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=GA&view_type=state
With the expected overall shift towards the GOP this time, I will take it.
In their last polls before ED 2022, Emerson had Blake Masters and Kari Lake ahead in AZ, Oz ahead in PA, and Laxalt ahead of Cortez-Masto (by 5!!) in NV.
So yeah.
Thank you for the sanity checking here...I need it!
I feel confident Emerson's lean is at least R+2. Probably more.
Of all the swings, MI will have the largest margin, save for the blue dot.
FWIW, over at TargetEarly, I see that GA has now inched ahead of 2020 in terms of modeled party at ED -8 days.
Now, WI, MI, and GA are ahead of their 2020 spread at this time. NE-02 as well from Simon's comments.
NC, AZ, PA, and NV are behind.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=GA&view_type=state
With the expected overall shift towards the GOP this time, I will take it.
In their last polls before ED 2022, Emerson had Blake Masters and Kari Lake ahead in AZ, Oz ahead in PA, and Laxalt ahead of Cortez-Masto (by 5!!) in NV.
So yeah.
Thank you for the sanity checking here...I need it!