Looking at this without any further context, I'd take it as evidence that my pessimism in Florida is merited and that the state is on track to become a republican vote sink.
Looking at this without any further context, I'd take it as evidence that my pessimism in Florida is merited and that the state is on track to become a republican vote sink.
Note, though, that I'm not predicting that Harris will win Florida, in contradiction to all the behavior of both campaigns. The question is whether Florida is now a "Republican vote sink," and I don't think we yet know the answer to that.
I didn't word it precisely enough but I expect it probably isn't quite there yet (which was what I hoped to convey with "on track"), but will be there very soon, with this year's results pointing towards that trend. Right now we have four consecutive cycles of disappointment out of Florida; I don't think this year is going to reset that trend, and early voting data like the above only reinforces that assumption.
Maybe putting my basic idea differently: in 2020, Florida was about four points to the right of the pivotal swing states. Regardless of the win/lose results, the above data would lead me to expect that Florida will be more than four points to the right of the pivotal swing states (conveniently, the same states as 2020). Hopefully not as bad as ten points, but would anyone be particularly shocked by six? Maybe eight?
By 2028 it could reasonably be expected to hit double digits without a realigning event. Which is entirely possible. But if it does hit there that's where I'd say it's at the point of being a vote sink.
It also depends on how many Republicans vote for Harris. She has been basing a lot of her campaign on making that happen. This may be a pleasant surprise when votes are counted and not only in Florida.
How does that compare to prior cycles?
Looking at this without any further context, I'd take it as evidence that my pessimism in Florida is merited and that the state is on track to become a republican vote sink.
That depends a lot on how the "other" vote breaks.
It does, but even a 75-25 break in our favor from Other would give Rs the win, if this was representative of the total vote.
And assuming equal votes by Republicans and Democrats for the other party's candidate.
Note, though, that I'm not predicting that Harris will win Florida, in contradiction to all the behavior of both campaigns. The question is whether Florida is now a "Republican vote sink," and I don't think we yet know the answer to that.
Yeah, that's fair.
I didn't word it precisely enough but I expect it probably isn't quite there yet (which was what I hoped to convey with "on track"), but will be there very soon, with this year's results pointing towards that trend. Right now we have four consecutive cycles of disappointment out of Florida; I don't think this year is going to reset that trend, and early voting data like the above only reinforces that assumption.
Maybe putting my basic idea differently: in 2020, Florida was about four points to the right of the pivotal swing states. Regardless of the win/lose results, the above data would lead me to expect that Florida will be more than four points to the right of the pivotal swing states (conveniently, the same states as 2020). Hopefully not as bad as ten points, but would anyone be particularly shocked by six? Maybe eight?
By 2028 it could reasonably be expected to hit double digits without a realigning event. Which is entirely possible. But if it does hit there that's where I'd say it's at the point of being a vote sink.
It also depends on how many Republicans vote for Harris. She has been basing a lot of her campaign on making that happen. This may be a pleasant surprise when votes are counted and not only in Florida.