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Stephen A Mikalik's avatar

With PA, what's going to happen is that Allegheny County (Pittsburgh & suburbs) will announce the tally of their mail-in ballots (currently 180k but could be 250k+) around 8:01pm, giving Harris & most (if not all) statewide Dems a 110k-ish lead before the rural counties start reporting. The lead will slowly be chipped away until all the rural counties come in, giving the GOP a small lead that will disappear once Philly & its suburbs finish their count.

If I remember correctly, Josh Shapiro was declared the winner at 10:15ish in the Governor's race blowout with 56% in. That will be the absolute earliest anything statewide will be called. Fetterman was declared the winner in the US Senate race around 12:45am Election Night with 89% reporting after never trailing due to the big lead Allegheny County mail gave him at 8pm poll close. The count should go quicker but it could be a late night in PA.

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