I have a metric that I haven't reported on yet: Long Outstanding Ballots. I subtract the # of requests of the past week from the total # of outstanding ballots. It's not perfect but it shows the MINIMUM # of old ballots outstanding.
I have a metric that I haven't reported on yet: Long Outstanding Ballots. I subtract the # of requests of the past week from the total # of outstanding ballots. It's not perfect but it shows the MINIMUM # of old ballots outstanding.
D - 229,877 (70.21% of party's outstanding)
R - 93,567 (43.13%)
O - 72,796 (62.87%)
This metric shows that Dems & Others have a vast majority of their ballots on the kitchen table or (hopefully) in transit back to the county. On the opposite end, the GOP has a majority of the outstanding ballots still in hand or still in transit TO the voter. In this sense, I'd rather be the Dems but that # still has me a little worried with a week left.
Thank you(the urgency this year is different; this board should know that); I contend that my daily local activism tells me that the Republicans are definitely cannibalizing their E-day vote; can I prove it? No, but after 40 years, I'm no neophyte; the 7 states that matter are razor thin, but I trust our proven GOTV experts as opposed to Elon Musk; let's run through the goal line folks
Tom Bonier has been pulling the data & as of yesterday's update, 40% of GOP ballots in PA were cast by voters who voted on Election Day while the same can be said for only 10% of Democrat ballots. Roughly 5% of each party's ballots were cast by people who DID NOT vote in 2020.
I have a metric that I haven't reported on yet: Long Outstanding Ballots. I subtract the # of requests of the past week from the total # of outstanding ballots. It's not perfect but it shows the MINIMUM # of old ballots outstanding.
D - 229,877 (70.21% of party's outstanding)
R - 93,567 (43.13%)
O - 72,796 (62.87%)
This metric shows that Dems & Others have a vast majority of their ballots on the kitchen table or (hopefully) in transit back to the county. On the opposite end, the GOP has a majority of the outstanding ballots still in hand or still in transit TO the voter. In this sense, I'd rather be the Dems but that # still has me a little worried with a week left.
Thank you(the urgency this year is different; this board should know that); I contend that my daily local activism tells me that the Republicans are definitely cannibalizing their E-day vote; can I prove it? No, but after 40 years, I'm no neophyte; the 7 states that matter are razor thin, but I trust our proven GOTV experts as opposed to Elon Musk; let's run through the goal line folks
Tom Bonier has been pulling the data & as of yesterday's update, 40% of GOP ballots in PA were cast by voters who voted on Election Day while the same can be said for only 10% of Democrat ballots. Roughly 5% of each party's ballots were cast by people who DID NOT vote in 2020.
Thanks for the raw data; appreciated