-Election day votes have the potential to increase depending on how many Democrats in the state turnout.
-The remarks by the racist comedian at TrumpтАЩs NYC rally could drive Hispanic and Latino voters away from the GOP, especially those who might have otherwise considered voting for Rick Scott.
-We have both Democrats and Independents voting on election day. FL has lots of Independents. They can either swing towards Democrats or Republicans at this point, less towards a third party candidate.
To be clear, IтАЩm not arguing a specific margin between Harris and Trump so much as IтАЩm arguing votes will likely start to tighten the race on Election Day. However, Democrats need Independents in order to win FL at the presidential level and in the Senate race.
I think your 2nd point is the key one. Otherwise, I don't know why we would assume the Election Day vote would be more Democratic than the early votes so far.
Knowing what happened in the 2022 midterms in FL, IтАЩm not assuming anything. There are going to be Democrats still voting in FL on Election Day. I suspect the turnout will improve from 2022 but how much I donтАЩt know. ItтАЩs more of an instinctive feeling I have at this point.
I would though keep my eyes peeled on what happens in Miami. There is serious fallout from the racist comedian at TrumpтАЩs rally. Kamala Harris as well as Debbie Mucarsel-Powell are both likely to benefit from crossover Hispanic and Latino voters. If Cubans end up voting strongly against Trump, then itтАЩs fair to say the GOP better hold on to their butts.
I believe the gaps by Democrats and Republicans are likely to narrow more on election day as opposed to now.
Why do you believe that?
Because of the following:
-Election day votes have the potential to increase depending on how many Democrats in the state turnout.
-The remarks by the racist comedian at TrumpтАЩs NYC rally could drive Hispanic and Latino voters away from the GOP, especially those who might have otherwise considered voting for Rick Scott.
-We have both Democrats and Independents voting on election day. FL has lots of Independents. They can either swing towards Democrats or Republicans at this point, less towards a third party candidate.
To be clear, IтАЩm not arguing a specific margin between Harris and Trump so much as IтАЩm arguing votes will likely start to tighten the race on Election Day. However, Democrats need Independents in order to win FL at the presidential level and in the Senate race.
I think your 2nd point is the key one. Otherwise, I don't know why we would assume the Election Day vote would be more Democratic than the early votes so far.
Knowing what happened in the 2022 midterms in FL, IтАЩm not assuming anything. There are going to be Democrats still voting in FL on Election Day. I suspect the turnout will improve from 2022 but how much I donтАЩt know. ItтАЩs more of an instinctive feeling I have at this point.
I would though keep my eyes peeled on what happens in Miami. There is serious fallout from the racist comedian at TrumpтАЩs rally. Kamala Harris as well as Debbie Mucarsel-Powell are both likely to benefit from crossover Hispanic and Latino voters. If Cubans end up voting strongly against Trump, then itтАЩs fair to say the GOP better hold on to their butts.