Those undecideds are unlikely to break evenly. That said, if Kamala cuts the margin to 10 or thereabouts that’s indicative of a decent night. Biden lost by 13
If they break 2:1 for Trump then its 54-46, which is close enough that given the trend, you have to start looking at Kansas as a possible swing state if its a good Dem year in 2028 or in 2032 regardless.
Apropos future elections, here is a choice sentence from humor coumnist Alexandra Petri’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, after Jeff Bezos blocked The Washington Post from endorsing her:
"I am endorsing Kamala Harris for president, because I like elections and want to keep having them."
The New York Times released a poll that showed Trump up by 14 in Nebraska (He won by 19 in 2020). However, Kamala Harris was up by 12 in the Omaha district and Trump was only up by 4 in the Lincoln based district. In 2020, Biden won the Omaha seat by 6 and lost the Lincoln seat by 15. I haven't been the biggest fan of the NYT polls this cycle, but this lends credibility to both the Kansas poll but to the narrative that there is something happening in the suburbs that the pollsters aren't picking up in national or statewide polls.
They also polled the Senate and found Osborne up one with Registered and down two with likely voters. Most of the other polls showing this to be close were from Osborne, this would seem to validate them.
In principle, they could be picking up on the suburban Dem upswing, but it is counterbalanced by a rural Dem downswing. But I like your explanation better.
Those undecideds are unlikely to break evenly. That said, if Kamala cuts the margin to 10 or thereabouts that’s indicative of a decent night. Biden lost by 13
If they break 2:1 for Trump then its 54-46, which is close enough that given the trend, you have to start looking at Kansas as a possible swing state if its a good Dem year in 2028 or in 2032 regardless.
Of course trends dont last forever.
Totally. And a 2:1 break would be great!
Considering it’s still Kansas and I’m persuaded by the “2020 baseline” argument I think a 3:1 break is likelier, which still gets you to roughly 55-45
It's possible those some of those votes are uniquely anti-Trump in the way they wouldn't be for a Hawley/Vance/DeSantis/Haley.
In Kansas, that could especially be the case, considering how firm the line between moderate and conservative Rs once was
Apropos future elections, here is a choice sentence from humor coumnist Alexandra Petri’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, after Jeff Bezos blocked The Washington Post from endorsing her:
"I am endorsing Kamala Harris for president, because I like elections and want to keep having them."
– Alexandra Petri
The New York Times released a poll that showed Trump up by 14 in Nebraska (He won by 19 in 2020). However, Kamala Harris was up by 12 in the Omaha district and Trump was only up by 4 in the Lincoln based district. In 2020, Biden won the Omaha seat by 6 and lost the Lincoln seat by 15. I haven't been the biggest fan of the NYT polls this cycle, but this lends credibility to both the Kansas poll but to the narrative that there is something happening in the suburbs that the pollsters aren't picking up in national or statewide polls.
They also polled the Senate and found Osborne up one with Registered and down two with likely voters. Most of the other polls showing this to be close were from Osborne, this would seem to validate them.
In principle, they could be picking up on the suburban Dem upswing, but it is counterbalanced by a rural Dem downswing. But I like your explanation better.