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Tom A's avatar

If they break 2:1 for Trump then its 54-46, which is close enough that given the trend, you have to start looking at Kansas as a possible swing state if its a good Dem year in 2028 or in 2032 regardless.

Of course trends dont last forever.

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Henrik's avatar

Totally. And a 2:1 break would be great!

Considering it’s still Kansas and I’m persuaded by the “2020 baseline” argument I think a 3:1 break is likelier, which still gets you to roughly 55-45

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Tigercourse's avatar

It's possible those some of those votes are uniquely anti-Trump in the way they wouldn't be for a Hawley/Vance/DeSantis/Haley.

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Henrik's avatar

In Kansas, that could especially be the case, considering how firm the line between moderate and conservative Rs once was

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ArcticStones's avatar

Apropos future elections, here is a choice sentence from humor coumnist Alexandra Petri’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, after Jeff Bezos blocked The Washington Post from endorsing her:

"I am endorsing Kamala Harris for president, because I like elections and want to keep having them."

– Alexandra Petri

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