The New York Times released a poll that showed Trump up by 14 in Nebraska (He won by 19 in 2020). However, Kamala Harris was up by 12 in the Omaha district and Trump was only up by 4 in the Lincoln based district. In 2020, Biden won the Omaha seat by 6 and lost the Lincoln seat by 15. I haven't been the biggest fan of the NYT polls this …
The New York Times released a poll that showed Trump up by 14 in Nebraska (He won by 19 in 2020). However, Kamala Harris was up by 12 in the Omaha district and Trump was only up by 4 in the Lincoln based district. In 2020, Biden won the Omaha seat by 6 and lost the Lincoln seat by 15. I haven't been the biggest fan of the NYT polls this cycle, but this lends credibility to both the Kansas poll but to the narrative that there is something happening in the suburbs that the pollsters aren't picking up in national or statewide polls.
They also polled the Senate and found Osborne up one with Registered and down two with likely voters. Most of the other polls showing this to be close were from Osborne, this would seem to validate them.
In principle, they could be picking up on the suburban Dem upswing, but it is counterbalanced by a rural Dem downswing. But I like your explanation better.
The New York Times released a poll that showed Trump up by 14 in Nebraska (He won by 19 in 2020). However, Kamala Harris was up by 12 in the Omaha district and Trump was only up by 4 in the Lincoln based district. In 2020, Biden won the Omaha seat by 6 and lost the Lincoln seat by 15. I haven't been the biggest fan of the NYT polls this cycle, but this lends credibility to both the Kansas poll but to the narrative that there is something happening in the suburbs that the pollsters aren't picking up in national or statewide polls.
They also polled the Senate and found Osborne up one with Registered and down two with likely voters. Most of the other polls showing this to be close were from Osborne, this would seem to validate them.
In principle, they could be picking up on the suburban Dem upswing, but it is counterbalanced by a rural Dem downswing. But I like your explanation better.