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ArcticStones's avatar

FLORIDA Early Vote:

@FloridaGOP +600,602 over @FlaDems

– GOP: 2,341,366 (45.1%)

– DEM: 1,740,764 (33.5%)

– Other: 621,662 (21.4%)

Statewide turnout is R+11.5

https://nitter.poast.org/meyer0656/status/1851256972022333904#m

https://www.freshtake.vote/2024G/

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JanusIanitos's avatar

How does that compare to prior cycles?

Looking at this without any further context, I'd take it as evidence that my pessimism in Florida is merited and that the state is on track to become a republican vote sink.

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michaelflutist's avatar

That depends a lot on how the "other" vote breaks.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

It does, but even a 75-25 break in our favor from Other would give Rs the win, if this was representative of the total vote.

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michaelflutist's avatar

And assuming equal votes by Republicans and Democrats for the other party's candidate.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Note, though, that I'm not predicting that Harris will win Florida, in contradiction to all the behavior of both campaigns. The question is whether Florida is now a "Republican vote sink," and I don't think we yet know the answer to that.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Yeah, that's fair.

I didn't word it precisely enough but I expect it probably isn't quite there yet (which was what I hoped to convey with "on track"), but will be there very soon, with this year's results pointing towards that trend. Right now we have four consecutive cycles of disappointment out of Florida; I don't think this year is going to reset that trend, and early voting data like the above only reinforces that assumption.

Maybe putting my basic idea differently: in 2020, Florida was about four points to the right of the pivotal swing states. Regardless of the win/lose results, the above data would lead me to expect that Florida will be more than four points to the right of the pivotal swing states (conveniently, the same states as 2020). Hopefully not as bad as ten points, but would anyone be particularly shocked by six? Maybe eight?

By 2028 it could reasonably be expected to hit double digits without a realigning event. Which is entirely possible. But if it does hit there that's where I'd say it's at the point of being a vote sink.

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Steven Gould Axelrod's avatar

It also depends on how many Republicans vote for Harris. She has been basing a lot of her campaign on making that happen. This may be a pleasant surprise when votes are counted and not only in Florida.

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Zero Cool's avatar

I believe the gaps by Democrats and Republicans are likely to narrow more on election day as opposed to now.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Why do you believe that?

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Zero Cool's avatar

Because of the following:

-Election day votes have the potential to increase depending on how many Democrats in the state turnout.

-The remarks by the racist comedian at Trump’s NYC rally could drive Hispanic and Latino voters away from the GOP, especially those who might have otherwise considered voting for Rick Scott.

-We have both Democrats and Independents voting on election day. FL has lots of Independents. They can either swing towards Democrats or Republicans at this point, less towards a third party candidate.

To be clear, I’m not arguing a specific margin between Harris and Trump so much as I’m arguing votes will likely start to tighten the race on Election Day. However, Democrats need Independents in order to win FL at the presidential level and in the Senate race.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I think your 2nd point is the key one. Otherwise, I don't know why we would assume the Election Day vote would be more Democratic than the early votes so far.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Knowing what happened in the 2022 midterms in FL, I’m not assuming anything. There are going to be Democrats still voting in FL on Election Day. I suspect the turnout will improve from 2022 but how much I don’t know. It’s more of an instinctive feeling I have at this point.

I would though keep my eyes peeled on what happens in Miami. There is serious fallout from the racist comedian at Trump’s rally. Kamala Harris as well as Debbie Mucarsel-Powell are both likely to benefit from crossover Hispanic and Latino voters. If Cubans end up voting strongly against Trump, then it’s fair to say the GOP better hold on to their butts.

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