Dropping back in after a long time, because Nevada's been weighing on my mind. In the interest of taking the good with the bad, the same poll supports at least some cause for concern in Nevada -- T+6 with the EV reg split is R+5 to R+6 implies that indies are breaking just about even (assuming equivalent crossover voting), whatever advan…
Dropping back in after a long time, because Nevada's been weighing on my mind. In the interest of taking the good with the bad, the same poll supports at least some cause for concern in Nevada -- T+6 with the EV reg split is R+5 to R+6 implies that indies are breaking just about even (assuming equivalent crossover voting), whatever advantage from Harris gets from indies is being cancelled out by crossovers working _against_ her, or somewhere in between those two.
OTOH, the Arizona number with the current EV reg split of 35 D/42 R suggests some massive amount of crossover voting favoring Harris or a massive advantage among indies, since Harris is almost at D + indie share of current EVs combined. It's certainly plausible that AZ would have more Rs crossing over for Harris than NV, but I'd be surprised if the difference is of that significant a magnitude. Hard to say for sure, and my intuition says that, in terms of crossover voting and/or indie advantage, the truth is probably somewhere in between the levels that this poll implies for the two states.
Dropping back in after a long time, because Nevada's been weighing on my mind. In the interest of taking the good with the bad, the same poll supports at least some cause for concern in Nevada -- T+6 with the EV reg split is R+5 to R+6 implies that indies are breaking just about even (assuming equivalent crossover voting), whatever advantage from Harris gets from indies is being cancelled out by crossovers working _against_ her, or somewhere in between those two.
OTOH, the Arizona number with the current EV reg split of 35 D/42 R suggests some massive amount of crossover voting favoring Harris or a massive advantage among indies, since Harris is almost at D + indie share of current EVs combined. It's certainly plausible that AZ would have more Rs crossing over for Harris than NV, but I'd be surprised if the difference is of that significant a magnitude. Hard to say for sure, and my intuition says that, in terms of crossover voting and/or indie advantage, the truth is probably somewhere in between the levels that this poll implies for the two states.