You make a lot of good points. I disagree with this minor one though: "I think AZ and Nevada we will know on election night and not be that close. We will also know PA and MI." PA early votes will be slow counted as they were in 2020. It will take days unless it is not close. And AZ? It took days last time and to me, it looks real close …
You make a lot of good points. I disagree with this minor one though: "I think AZ and Nevada we will know on election night and not be that close. We will also know PA and MI." PA early votes will be slow counted as they were in 2020. It will take days unless it is not close. And AZ? It took days last time and to me, it looks real close again. Why do you not think it will be close and who do you think will win it?
Pennsylvania counts faster now. Don't forget that PA-Sen 2022 was called for Fetterman around 12 or 1 AM. I suspect that by the time most people get up Wednesday morning, it will be clear that Harris has won Pennsylvania.
Thanks--good reminder. I recall that the state senate refused to allow counties to process ballots before election day. To me, that's crazy. You do not know how someone voted but you verify that the ballot is proper and should be counted. No reason to hold that up.
The Republican reason for refusing to allow that is simple: They wanted to increase the chances of a Red Mirage, giving greater credence to Trump’s claims of "stolen election" as the result turned Blue later in the night.
But that was because Fetterman was already up when the E-Day votes were counted, and most of the mail votes were Democratic. If it's close, PA could take a while.
I have to pinch my arm when I start becoming nostalgic about Milhous. Who ever thought America would elect a president that would make George W Bush look like a brilliant intellectual and make Nixon seem like a paragon of integrity?
PA was slow counted, but it was evident pretty early on which way the wind was blowing. It was just not evident enough that reputable news orgs felt confident calling it.
I suspect that the election result like everything except 2000, will be known by the time you wake up on Nov 6. It might not be formally called, but the writing will be on the wall one way or another.
With PA, what's going to happen is that Allegheny County (Pittsburgh & suburbs) will announce the tally of their mail-in ballots (currently 180k but could be 250k+) around 8:01pm, giving Harris & most (if not all) statewide Dems a 110k-ish lead before the rural counties start reporting. The lead will slowly be chipped away until all the rural counties come in, giving the GOP a small lead that will disappear once Philly & its suburbs finish their count.
If I remember correctly, Josh Shapiro was declared the winner at 10:15ish in the Governor's race blowout with 56% in. That will be the absolute earliest anything statewide will be called. Fetterman was declared the winner in the US Senate race around 12:45am Election Night with 89% reporting after never trailing due to the big lead Allegheny County mail gave him at 8pm poll close. The count should go quicker but it could be a late night in PA.
You make a lot of good points. I disagree with this minor one though: "I think AZ and Nevada we will know on election night and not be that close. We will also know PA and MI." PA early votes will be slow counted as they were in 2020. It will take days unless it is not close. And AZ? It took days last time and to me, it looks real close again. Why do you not think it will be close and who do you think will win it?
Pennsylvania counts faster now. Don't forget that PA-Sen 2022 was called for Fetterman around 12 or 1 AM. I suspect that by the time most people get up Wednesday morning, it will be clear that Harris has won Pennsylvania.
Thanks--good reminder. I recall that the state senate refused to allow counties to process ballots before election day. To me, that's crazy. You do not know how someone voted but you verify that the ballot is proper and should be counted. No reason to hold that up.
The PA Senate is Republican and they love chaos.
The Republican reason for refusing to allow that is simple: They wanted to increase the chances of a Red Mirage, giving greater credence to Trump’s claims of "stolen election" as the result turned Blue later in the night.
But that was because Fetterman was already up when the E-Day votes were counted, and most of the mail votes were Democratic. If it's close, PA could take a while.
how about before they go to bed Tuesday night? :-)
It may well be called before you intrepid, insomniac election watchers go to bed at 7am. /s
My curfew is 2 am pst...which I started in 1960...JFK v. RMN
I have to pinch my arm when I start becoming nostalgic about Milhous. Who ever thought America would elect a president that would make George W Bush look like a brilliant intellectual and make Nixon seem like a paragon of integrity?
PA was slow counted, but it was evident pretty early on which way the wind was blowing. It was just not evident enough that reputable news orgs felt confident calling it.
I suspect that the election result like everything except 2000, will be known by the time you wake up on Nov 6. It might not be formally called, but the writing will be on the wall one way or another.
Written in ketchup on the wall in Mar-a-Lago.
With PA, what's going to happen is that Allegheny County (Pittsburgh & suburbs) will announce the tally of their mail-in ballots (currently 180k but could be 250k+) around 8:01pm, giving Harris & most (if not all) statewide Dems a 110k-ish lead before the rural counties start reporting. The lead will slowly be chipped away until all the rural counties come in, giving the GOP a small lead that will disappear once Philly & its suburbs finish their count.
If I remember correctly, Josh Shapiro was declared the winner at 10:15ish in the Governor's race blowout with 56% in. That will be the absolute earliest anything statewide will be called. Fetterman was declared the winner in the US Senate race around 12:45am Election Night with 89% reporting after never trailing due to the big lead Allegheny County mail gave him at 8pm poll close. The count should go quicker but it could be a late night in PA.