except polls out today have KH leading in AZ and tied in NC (a gain of 6 pts from CNN previous poll in AZ)...polls from a week or 3 ago don't really matter...and the polls, if you believe them, that will be out this week will be the only polls that are even relevant...and, way too much emphasis is being put on NV...most likely this elect…
except polls out today have KH leading in AZ and tied in NC (a gain of 6 pts from CNN previous poll in AZ)...polls from a week or 3 ago don't really matter...and the polls, if you believe them, that will be out this week will be the only polls that are even relevant...and, way too much emphasis is being put on NV...most likely this election will be decided in the hours before we have any concrete idea as to how NV is voting. And there is this little tidbit re' AZ... https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/29/2280661/-CNN-Harris-leads-53-44-among-Arizonans-who-have-already-voted?utm_campaign=recent.... with more repubs having voted early than Dems and KH still with 9 pt lead
This is why I think looking at party ID on the early vote is not very instructive. We do not know how well Harris' pitch to GOP-leaning women is going to play out. We also know that there was little ground game in 2020 when Biden won. We know that Harris' ground game is perhaps the most comprehensive in history and at least as good as Obama '08 which should push our ED margins up from 2020.
Now, is it possible there is a red wave coming from low propensity whites, a realignment from Latinos (not likely after yesterday), or that the Musk/Kirk turnout operation is better than we think? Of course...but this panicking over each Ralston tweet and the PA firewall (which looks like it will be met soon) is getting tired.
I don't know much about the Colombian-American community, but the others are historically red to begin with.
The other thing about the Puerto Rico slam is that they are US citizens and their population is part of our military and has been for more than a century. This wasn't the typical immigrant bashing.
The Puerto Rico joke got the most traction, but he also made another offensive joke about how Latinos love "coming" here and making babies. Don't think it'll be as damaging, but it doesn't help with non-Puerto Rican Latinos either.
I hear you but relying on Republicans to push us over the top may work in this specific election but is not a viable strategy going forward. The Machine issues need to be addressed immediately.
Dropping back in after a long time, because Nevada's been weighing on my mind. In the interest of taking the good with the bad, the same poll supports at least some cause for concern in Nevada -- T+6 with the EV reg split is R+5 to R+6 implies that indies are breaking just about even (assuming equivalent crossover voting), whatever advantage from Harris gets from indies is being cancelled out by crossovers working _against_ her, or somewhere in between those two.
OTOH, the Arizona number with the current EV reg split of 35 D/42 R suggests some massive amount of crossover voting favoring Harris or a massive advantage among indies, since Harris is almost at D + indie share of current EVs combined. It's certainly plausible that AZ would have more Rs crossing over for Harris than NV, but I'd be surprised if the difference is of that significant a magnitude. Hard to say for sure, and my intuition says that, in terms of crossover voting and/or indie advantage, the truth is probably somewhere in between the levels that this poll implies for the two states.
except polls out today have KH leading in AZ and tied in NC (a gain of 6 pts from CNN previous poll in AZ)...polls from a week or 3 ago don't really matter...and the polls, if you believe them, that will be out this week will be the only polls that are even relevant...and, way too much emphasis is being put on NV...most likely this election will be decided in the hours before we have any concrete idea as to how NV is voting. And there is this little tidbit re' AZ... https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/29/2280661/-CNN-Harris-leads-53-44-among-Arizonans-who-have-already-voted?utm_campaign=recent.... with more repubs having voted early than Dems and KH still with 9 pt lead
This is why I think looking at party ID on the early vote is not very instructive. We do not know how well Harris' pitch to GOP-leaning women is going to play out. We also know that there was little ground game in 2020 when Biden won. We know that Harris' ground game is perhaps the most comprehensive in history and at least as good as Obama '08 which should push our ED margins up from 2020.
Now, is it possible there is a red wave coming from low propensity whites, a realignment from Latinos (not likely after yesterday), or that the Musk/Kirk turnout operation is better than we think? Of course...but this panicking over each Ralston tweet and the PA firewall (which looks like it will be met soon) is getting tired.
I don't know how much Cubans, Venezuelans or Colombians will be angry about slams of Puerto Rico.
I don't know much about the Colombian-American community, but the others are historically red to begin with.
The other thing about the Puerto Rico slam is that they are US citizens and their population is part of our military and has been for more than a century. This wasn't the typical immigrant bashing.
I'm quite aware of that and pointed it out yesterday.
The Puerto Rico joke got the most traction, but he also made another offensive joke about how Latinos love "coming" here and making babies. Don't think it'll be as damaging, but it doesn't help with non-Puerto Rican Latinos either.
True.
I hear you but relying on Republicans to push us over the top may work in this specific election but is not a viable strategy going forward. The Machine issues need to be addressed immediately.
There are no machine issues, except for inside your mind
Dropping back in after a long time, because Nevada's been weighing on my mind. In the interest of taking the good with the bad, the same poll supports at least some cause for concern in Nevada -- T+6 with the EV reg split is R+5 to R+6 implies that indies are breaking just about even (assuming equivalent crossover voting), whatever advantage from Harris gets from indies is being cancelled out by crossovers working _against_ her, or somewhere in between those two.
OTOH, the Arizona number with the current EV reg split of 35 D/42 R suggests some massive amount of crossover voting favoring Harris or a massive advantage among indies, since Harris is almost at D + indie share of current EVs combined. It's certainly plausible that AZ would have more Rs crossing over for Harris than NV, but I'd be surprised if the difference is of that significant a magnitude. Hard to say for sure, and my intuition says that, in terms of crossover voting and/or indie advantage, the truth is probably somewhere in between the levels that this poll implies for the two states.