Morning Digest: A senior House Democrat lands a primary challenger after health scares
Rep. John Larson says he's running again but won't announce until fall
Leading Off
CT-01
Connecticut Rep. John Larson learned just before the Fourth of July holiday that he'll face opposition in the Democratic primary if the 76-year-old incumbent goes ahead with his plan to seek a 15th term next year.
Ruth Fortune, a member of Hartford's Board of Education, told CT Mirror's Mark Pazniokas that she'll oppose Larson in the reliably blue 1st District. But Fortune, 37, argued that her decision to run had nothing to do with recent concerns about the congressman's health or any other issues with his job performance.
"My reasons for running are my reasons for running," she informed Pazniokas on Thursday. "I want to bring my voice, my lived experiences, my fierce advocacy, and really try to do as much as I can to support people as they try to aspire to whatever it is that their dream is and their goals are."
Fortune, who arrived in the United States in 2000 as an undocumented immigrant from Haiti, entered public office last year when she accepted an appointment from Hartford Mayor Arunan Arulampalam to the local school board. Arulampalam, however, said he'd only learned Fortune would run for Congress when "[s]omebody texted me about it."
Larson, for his part, has been secure since notching his first victory in 1998, but he's faced unwanted questions about his health in recent months.
The congressman, who turns 77 this month, attracted widespread attention in February when, during a speech on the House floor, he suddenly stopped speaking mid-sentence. After several seconds of silence, Larson resumed talking at a noticeably slower pace and was unable to complete his address within the allotted time.
Larson responded with a statement saying he'd experienced a "complex partial seizure" that was linked to the "heart valve replacement" he'd had 15 years earlier. Larson said the surgery was done to correct a lifelong issue and explained, "Sometimes, people with this condition can later develop symptoms such as the momentary change in speech or movement that was apparent yesterday."
The congressman earned far more positive coverage the following month with a speech denouncing Elon Musk—and congressional Republicans for not restraining him. MSNBC's Rachel Maddow approvingly said of Larson, "He has been eating his proverbial Wheaties. He appears to be very hydrated, very energized, and, may I suggest, you get out of his way."
Larson, however, had a second episode during an April press conference when he trailed off and stepped aside without completing his thoughts.
The congressman, who remained at the event as other speakers talked, later said his physicians told him he was on the "appropriate therapy." He added that "while I understand your concern, I assure you that I am fine and am continuing to follow medical advice."
Larson's team told Axios in May that he "does intend to run for reelection," and he informed Pazniokas that remains the case.
"In a democracy, anyone who desires to run is free to do so," he said in a statement in response to Fortune's decision to oppose him. "I fully intend to announce my candidacy after the municipal elections this year." (Connecticut will hold elections for local office in November.)
Until Larson makes such a declaration, though, there's sure to be speculation that he might reverse course and call it a career. It was only last week that Pennsylvania Rep. Dwight Evans, a 71-year-old Democrat who has experienced his own health challenges, announced his retirement—a decision that came shortly after his office said Evans was "still planning to run for reelection."
If Larson also retires, many Democrats would consider running to replace him in the 1st District, which includes the state capital of Hartford and other communities in the central part of the state. Kamala Harris, according to calculations by The Downballot, carried this constituency 61-38, so the Democratic nominee will be all but assured victory next year.
2Q Fundraising
IA-Sen: Nathan Sage (D): $705,000 raised
MI-Sen: Haley Stevens (D): $1.3 million raised, additional $1.2 million transferred from House account, $2 million cash on hand
GA-Gov: Chris Carr (R): $1.25 million raised
CA-25: Joe Males (R): $334,000 raised
CA-27: George Whitesides (D-inc): $860,000 raised, $1.4 million cash on hand
CO-03: Alex Kelloff (D): $429,000 raised (in two months), $357,000 cash on hand
GA-01: Jim Kingston (R): $800,000 raised (in three weeks)
IA-02: Ashley Hinson (R-inc): $800,000 raised, $2.8 million cash on hand
IL-02: Robert Peters (D): $415,000 raised (in seven weeks), $370,000 cash on hand
IL-08: Dan Tully (D): $200,000 raised (in three weeks)
IL-09: Daniel Biss (D): $700,000 raised (in seven weeks), $640,000 cash on hand
MN-01: Jake Johnson (D): $260,000 raised
NH-01: Maura Sullivan (D): $800,000 raised, $550,000 cash on hand; Stefany Shaheen (D): $525,000 raised (in five weeks); Carleigh Beriont (D): $160,000 raised (in one month)
NV-03: Marty O'Donnell (R): $13,000 raised, additional $3 million self-funded, $2.9 million cash on hand
Money matters to campaigns—and, not gonna lie, to us as well. We don’t need much, but we do need the resources to support our operations as a small independent news site.
If you’ve found value in The Downballot’s unique coverage of overlooked elections, we hope you’ll consider becoming a paid subscriber today. It’s just $7 a month or a steeply discounted $60 a year, and it comes with cool perks. Just hit the button below!
Senate
MI-Sen
A new survey of Michigan's open Senate race finds Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens leading former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers 47-45, while another Democrat, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, trails Rogers 48-44.
The poll, conducted by Normington Petts for a mystery super PAC called Yes Michigan and first reported by Politico, argues that Stevens' stronger showing is due to her higher name recognition. It contends that McMorrow performs better on an informed ballot test after respondents are given both positive and negative information about the field.
The pollster's memo concludes that both Democrats are "strong general election candidates who can best Mike Rogers" but says that McMorrow "has a higher upside" because she does not have a history of voting with Joe Biden.
The memo does not mention former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed or state Rep. Joe Tate, who are also seeking the Democratic nod.
NC-Sen, NC-01
A spokesperson for Democratic Rep. Don Davis says the congressman is "looking at all options and not ruling anything out" when it comes to a possible Senate bid next year, reports Politico.
Democrats across North Carolina and the country are all waiting on former Gov. Roy Cooper to decide whether he'll seek the seat following Republican Sen. Thom Tillis' recent retirement announcement. Many others could run, though, if Cooper stands down. However, a campaign by Davis would leave open his highly competitive 1st Congressional District, which Republicans are eager to flip.
Governors
IA-Gov
Rep. Randy Feenstra has received endorsements from Sen. Joni Ernst and fellow Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in next year's Republican primary for governor of Iowa. Feenstra formed an exploratory committee in May for a likely campaign to succeed Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is retiring.
KS-Gov
State Senate Minority Leader Dinah Sykes has expressed interest in running to succeed termed-out Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly, a fellow Democrat. State Sen. Cindy Holscher, a member of Sykes' caucus, is the only prominent Sunflower State Democrat who has entered the race so far.
MN-Gov, MN-02
Republican state Sen. Zach Duckworth announced on July 4 that he'd seek reelection to the Minnesota legislature rather than campaign for higher office next year. Duckworth showed some interest earlier this year in either running for governor or trying to flip the 2nd Congressional District.
SC-Gov
Republican Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette has a "very special announcement" set for July 14 as she eyes the busy primary to replace South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, who is term-limited next year. Evette's event is scheduled to take place two weeks before Rep. Ralph Norman is set to reveal his plans on July 27.
TX-Gov, TX-Sen
Two prominent Democrats from San Antonio are interested in challenging Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who has said he'll seek a fourth term next year.
Rep. Joaquin Castro informed the Houston Chronicle's Jeremy Wallace late last month that he was thinking about running for governor and would "make a decision soon." Castro, who has talked about running for statewide office many times in the past and has suggested he might be interested in a Senate bid, too, did not indicate which race he was leaning toward.
Former Mayor Ron Nirenberg, meanwhile, is also considering opposing Abbott, Andrea Drusch writes in the San Antonio Report.
Nirenberg, whose tenure came to an end last month, recently told Texas Public Radio he "could also be on the midterm ballot." The former mayor did not say which offices he was considering, but Drusch reports that he's informed fellow Democrats he's looking at the governorship.
State Rep. James Talarico, however, sounds more conflicted about what to do. Talarico, an Austin-area legislator who has flirted with running for Senate, told Wallace in late June he was also thinking about taking on Abbott.
Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke, though, appears to be only interested in the Senate. O'Rourke, who lost to Abbott in 2022, anticipates a decision "by the end of this summer if not sooner." (For those marking their calendars, the Farmers' Almanac says that autumn begins on Sept. 22 at 2:19 PM ET.)
Former Rep. Colin Allred and retired astronaut Terry Virts are currently competing in the Democratic primary for Senate. Rancher Bobby Cole, by contrast, is the only notable Democrat who has announced a campaign to take on Abbott.
WI-Gov
Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who had long promised a decision on whether he'd seek a third term after the completion of Wisconsin's biennial budget process, now tells the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that he'll make up his mind in a "couple weeks," following the passage of a new budget just before the Fourth of July holiday.
Meanwhile, state Senate President Mary Felzkowski, who just voted against that budget, was asked about seeking the Republican nod for governor and responded to reporters, "I have no idea." The only candidate currently running in the GOP primary is Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann, though several other names are in the mix.
House
AZ-07
All three Democrats running in next week's primary in Arizona's vacant 7th Congressional District have raised sizable sums, according to new disclosures, but the best-known contender is also the best-funded.
Reports covering almost the entire second quarter—from April 1 through June 26—were due at the FEC just before the Fourth of July for all candidates running in the special election to fill the seat held by the late Rep. Raul Grijalva.
Deja Foxx: $597,000 raised, $495,000 spent, $100,000 cash on hand
Adelita Grijalva: $824,000 raised, $697,000 spent, $128,000 cash on hand
Daniel Hernandez: $643,000 raised, $902,000 spent, $37,000 cash on hand
A recent internal poll for Foxx, a progressive organizer, found Grijalva, who is the daughter of the deceased congressman, with a relatively small 43-35 lead, while Hernandez was far back at 9%.
CA-22
Democrat Jasmeet Bains, a member of the California Assembly, plans to announce a campaign against Republican Rep. David Valadao this month, Punchbowl News reports.
Bains, a physician, recently starred in an ad campaign from the local branch of the SEIU that exhorted Valadao to oppose the GOP's plans for massive cuts to Medicaid. Valadao, however, joined almost every other member of his party in voting to slash the program, which over 60% of his constituents are enrolled in—one of the highest proportions in the nation.
One Democrat, local school board trustee Randy Villegas, is already running for California's 22nd District, which swung hard to the right last year. Donald Trump carried this constituency, which is located in the heavily agricultural Central Valley, 52-46 in 2024, four years after Joe Biden won it 55-42.
CA-41, CA-LG
Former OneRepublic bassist Tim Myers announced Monday that he was ending his campaign against Republican Rep. Ken Calvert and would run for lieutenant governor of California instead.
Myers said he decided he wants to replace Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, a fellow Democrat who is seeking the governorship, because he believes the post would give him a better platform for standing up to the Trump administration.
Myers was one of several Democrats competing in the top-two primary for the 41st District, a competitive seat based in the Coachella Valley, and it remains a busy race even without him in the race. The field includes school board member Abel Chavez, attorney Anuj Dixit, and businessman Brandon Riker.
FL-23
Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer isn't ruling out seeking the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, he tells the South Florida Sun Sentinel. Singer (no relation to The Downballot's Jeff Singer) will be forced to give up his current job in May of next year because of term limits.
Former state Rep. George Moraitis and perennial candidate Joe Kaufman are already running to flip Florida's 23rd District, a longtime Democratic bastion in South Florida that shifted hard to the right last year.
According to calculations from the Downballot, Kamala Harris carried Moskowitz's constituency by a slim 51-49 margin, four years after Joe Biden took it by a far wider 56-43 spread. Kaufman held Moskowitz to a surprisingly close 52-48 victory last year in a race that never looked competitive before the polls closed.
IL-02
Former Democratic Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., who resigned in disgrace in 2012 shortly before pleading guilty to federal corruption charges, is reportedly mulling a comeback bid for his old seat.
Politico says that the ex-congressman, who spent a year-and-a-half in prison after admitting to spending $750,000 in campaign contributions on personal purchases, is "quietly exploring" a bid for Illinois' 2nd District, which is now open because Rep. Robin Kelly is running for Senate. (Kelly succeeded Jackson in 2013 thanks to a stunning special election upset.)
Jackson has not yet commented himself, but a couple of local politicians have already begun heaping praise on him, with former Rep. Bobby Rush calling him "the most qualified and ready-made of all the candidates." Jackson's brother, Jonathan Jackson, represents Rush's old seat in the neighboring 1st District, while his father is the iconic civil rights leader Jesse Jackson Sr.
KY-06
State Sen. Amanda Mays Bledsoe said Monday that she would not run to replace Rep. Andy Barr, a fellow Kentucky Republican, in the open 6th District. She added, however, that "[a] great candidate for this seat will be announcing in the coming days, and I'm going to be all-in with him."
Ralph Alvarado, a former Kentucky state senator who is now the health commissioner in Tennessee, revealed minutes later that he was interested in returning to his home state to run and would "have an announcement to make soon."
The Lexington Herald-Leader's Austin Horn writes that, while there's no word whether Bledsoe was talking about Alvarado, "the timing of his statement on the heels of Bledsoe's announcement could be more than coincidence."
Alvarado, whose 2014 win made him the first Latino to win state office in Kentucky, attracted attention in 2019 when then-Gov. Matt Bevin made him his candidate for lieutenant governor.
Bevin's decision to unceremoniously drop Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton to make space for Alvarado did little to boost his terrible approval ratings, however, and their ticket narrowly lost to the Democratic team of Andy Beshear and Jacqueline Coleman.
Alvarado said in 2022 that he was interested in challenging Beshear the next year, but he soon removed himself from contention by accepting the post of health commissioner in neighboring Tennessee. Beshear went on to beat Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who is now one of Barr's opponents in the Senate primary.
State Rep. Ryan Dotson is currently the only prominent Republican running to succeed Barr in the 6th District, while former state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson and former Lexington Urban County Councilmember David Kloiber are competing for the Democratic nomination.
Calculations by The Downballot show that the 6th backed Donald Trump 57-42 last year. However, Beshear's landslide 60-40 victory here against Cameron has Democrats hoping for an upset.
NE-02
Former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom announced Monday that he was running to replace retiring Rep. Don Bacon, a fellow Nebraska Republican, in one of the swingiest House seats in the nation.
Lindstrom, as we wrote last week, lost the 2012 primary for the last version of the 2nd District and fell short when he sought the GOP nod for governor in 2022. He joins Omaha City Councilmember Brinker Harding in next year's primary.
One Republican who will not be running to succeed Bacon, though, is former Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert. Stothert, who badly lost reelection in May, ended whatever speculation there was about a comeback last week by endorsing Harding.
NY-17
Former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, whose upset loss in 2022 while chairing the DCCC marked a low point for New York Democrats, is thinking about a possible comeback bid, reports Axios.
In a contentious series of events following the most recent round of redistricting, Maloney wound up seeking reelection in the redrawn 17th District, which was mostly new to him. He was defeated in a stunner by Republican Assemblyman Mike Lawler, who clawed his way to a 50.3 to 49.7 victory against the high-profile incumbent on a night that saw the GOP flip four House seats in the Empire State.
Should Maloney enter the race, though, he'd be joining a Democratic primary that already features more than half a dozen notable candidates, several of whom have already raised large sums. Also looming over the contest is the question of whether or not Lawler seeks reelection.
PA-10
Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas, whose surprise win in 2023 gave Democrats control of the board for the first time in more than a century, said on Monday that he's considering a bid against Republican Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania's 10th District.
The only other Democrat eyeing the race is former TV anchor Janelle Stelson, who nearly ousted Perry last year and said in April that she anticipates launching a new campaign this month.
Douglas, a former pastor, became chair of the county commission earlier this year. He also produced a podcast called "Defund the Church" that described its mission as "help[ing] tear down the walls of racial injustice and division that have been sown for centuries in the church."
TN-06
Former Rep. Van Hilleary filed paperwork with the FEC last week for a potential campaign to succeed Rep. John Rose, who employs Hilleary as his chief of staff. Rose is giving up Tennessee's dark red 6th District to run for governor.
Hilleary was elected in 1994 to represent a prior iteration of the 4th District several maps ago, but he left the House eight years later after losing a tight race for governor to Democrat Phil Bredesen. Hilleary, who then took third place in the 2006 GOP primary for Senate, worked as a lobbyist before joining Rose's office as his top aide following the latter's election in 2018.
No prominent Republicans have announced campaigns for the 6th District, which includes part of Nashville and suburban and rural communities to the east, though a few state lawmakers have expressed interest. Donald Trump carried this constituency 67-32 last year.
TN-07
State Reps. Aftyn Behn and Bo Mitchell on Monday became the first prominent Tennessee Democrats to enter the upcoming special election to replace Republican Rep. Mark Green in a dark-red seat where Democrats spy an opening.
Donald Trump carried the 7th District 60-38 last year, while Green, whose resignation took effect on July 4, won his fourth and final term by an identical margin even after his estranged wife accused him of infidelity. But Democrats, as James Downs wrote last month in the National Journal, are encouraged by their big overperformances in recent special elections.
They're also hoping that the GOP's decision to gerrymander the neighboring 5th District in 2022, which involved cracking the loyally blue city of Nashville three ways and placing part of it in Green's district, will give them a large and motivated base of voters for what could be a low-turnout contest.
Both Behn and Mitchell, whose Nashville-based constituencies are partially located in the 7th District, are also hoping to capitalize on a backlash against the GOP's new budget bill.
"I got my start organizing to save Medicaid and rural hospitals in the 7th district, and I'm ready to take that fight to Congress because this moment demands fearless leadership," Behn told Axios' Nate Rau of what she characterized as the "Big, Bullshit bill."
Mitchell, for his part, framed himself as someone who will "work with anyone in either party when it helps our state." The legislator, though, also pledged to "continue to stand up to anyone who tries to hurt our state—like this new law will do."
Several other Democrats expressed interest last month in running to flip this now-vacant seat, though no one announced before Green's departure took effect.
Republicans, by contrast, already had a busy primary before the congressman officially left office, and the field continued to grow on Monday. State Rep. Jody Barrett announced that he was entering the race, while fellow state Rep. Lee Reeves filed paperwork with the FEC.
State law gives Gov. Bill Lee 10 days to schedule a special election for a vacant seat. Primaries must take place 50 to 55 days after the special is called, with the general election occurring another 50 to 55 days later. Tennessee, unlike many other Southern states, does not require primary runoffs if no one takes a majority of the vote.
VA-02
Navy Reserve veteran James Osyf is "gearing up" to run against Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia's swingy 2nd District, reports Punchbowl.
According to calculations by The Downballot, Donald Trump carried the Hampton Roads-area 2nd District by an extremely slender margin of 49.5 to 49.3. The region is also home to a large Navy presence, and candidates often have ties to the military: Kiggans is a former Navy helicopter pilot, while Osyf, in addition to being a reservist, works for Lockheed Martin.
If he jumps in, Osyf would be the first notable Democrat to launch a challenge to Kiggans, who won a second term last year by a 51-47 margin. In April, Politico reported that former Virginia first lady Pamela Northam was the target of Democratic recruitment efforts, but she hasn't said anything publicly since.
Another possibility is state Sen. Aaron Rouse, who flipped Kiggans' legislative seat in a 2023 special and narrowly lost the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor last month. Despite his loss, though, Rouse took 64% of the vote in the 2nd District, according to J. Miles Coleman at Sabato's Crystal Ball.
You know you’re hardcore when you’re reading this deep into the Morning Digest, and you’ve scrolled this far because you know this is where you’ll be the first to hear about some of the most fascinating, under-the-radar races in the country. If you value our commitment to leaving no page unturned, we hope you’ll upgrade to a paid subscription today!
Secretaries of State
GA-SoS
Republican state Rep. Tim Fleming, a former chief of staff to Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, has filed to run for secretary of state.
The state's current elections chief is Brad Raffensperger, a fellow Republican who has not yet revealed his plans for next year. Raffensperger, who held off a Donald Trump-backed primary foe in 2022, is eligible to seek a third term, though he's also talked about running for governor or Senate.
Fleming did not mention Raffensperger in a Facebook post publicizing his filing, though he teased that an "official announcement will be made at the appropriate time" regarding a campaign launch.
Fleming is likely to face a competitive primary no matter what the incumbent does. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Mark Niesse mentions a pair of possible GOP candidates: Gabriel Sterling, who is Raffensperger's top aide, and businessman Kelvin King. King, who badly lost the 2022 Senate primary, is married to Janelle King, a conservative hardliner who serves on the state's Election Board.
On the Democratic side, Niesse name-drops former state Rep. Bee Nguyen, who lost to Raffensperger 53-44 in 2022. He also lists state Sen. Nabilah Islam Parkes and state Rep. Saira Draper as prospective candidates.
Legislatures
Special Elections
Following an inconclusive first round of voting late last month, Republican Natasha Johnson and Democrat Chris Shoults will face off again on Aug. 26 in the special election for California's vacant 63rd Assembly District, a potentially competitive GOP-held seat.
In the initial results, Johnson, a member of the City Council in Lake Elsinore, edged out Shoults, a high school English teacher and union leader, by a 46-44 margin, with another Republican winning 8% of the vote and a Libertarian candidate taking 1%. Because no one won a majority of the vote, the top two vote-getters have advanced to the general election.
The 63rd District, based in Riverside County in the part of the state known as the Inland Empire, voted for Donald Trump 55-42 last year but gave Trump a smaller 52-46 edge in 2020. While very much a reach for Shoults (who, it's worth noting, has a great deal of support from organized labor), Democrats nationwide have been outperforming Trump's 2020 numbers by more than 15 points on average.
Mayors & County Leaders
King County, WA Executive
King County Assessor John Wilson was arrested just before the Fourth of July after his former domestic partner accused him of repeatedly violating a restraining order, including by appearing outside her home.
Wilson's former partner previously accused him of stalking and harassing her, prompting the King County Council to unanimously approve a no-confidence motion against him last month. Wilson has, however, continued to run in the Aug. 5 top-two primary for county executive.
Editor's note: In yesterday's Morning Digest, we incorrectly stated that Steny Hoyer was the oldest voting member of the House Democratic caucus. He is the second-oldest.
And it's official: Dan Osborn is back, running (as an independent again) against Sen. Pete Ricketts this time in Nebraska!
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/independent-dan-osborn-launches-another-nebraska-senate-run-rcna215998
I liked Osborn a lot last time, and I look forward to another run from him.
Davis should not run for senate. He has a far better chance of holding on to NC 1 than he does winning a general election for senate.