Democrats just turned in the biggest overperformance in a special election this year

And the top three have all come in Iowa, where the Republican governor just unexpectedly announced her retirement

Iowa Democrat Angel Ramirez (credit: Linn County Democrats Facebook)

Nonprofit founder Angel Ramirez turned in the biggest overperformance by a Democrat in a special election this year with her victory on Tuesday night, winning Iowa's vacant 78th House District in a 79-21 landslide.

Last year, Kamala Harris carried the district, based in the Cedar Rapids area, by an already considerable 66-33 margin, according to calculations from The Downballot. That means Ramirez's showing represents a 26-point improvement on last year's presidential results.

The previous high-water mark was also set by an Iowa Democrat, educator Mike Zimmer, who beat the 2024 numbers by 25 points when he flipped a deep red seat in the state Senate in a massive upset in January. The year's third-best overperformance also came in Hawkeye State, when Democrat Nannette Griffin exceeded Harris' margins by 24 points in another ruby-red seat in the House.

All three races have taken place in eastern Iowa, though as each district's lean indicates, the earlier contests were fought on very different turf than Tuesday's. Taken together, they suggest a particularly difficult environment for Iowa Republicans and offer a possible hint as to why GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds unexpectedly announced her retirement last month.

Ramirez's win will make her the first Latina to ever serve in the state legislature. Iowa Democrats, however, remain in a deep hole, with Republicans still holding a 67-33 supermajority in the House following Ramirez's election and a similar 34-16 edge in the Senate.

Elsewhere on Tuesday, in neighboring Minnesota, Republican Keri Heitzeman defeated Democrat Denise Slipy to hold the vacant 6th Senate District, winning by a 60-40 margin. That showing also represented a Democratic overperformance, however, since Donald Trump won the district by a 63-37 spread in 2024.

Altogether, in 19 special elections, Democrats are running ahead of the presidential margins by an average of 11.6 points. Ahead of Trump's first midterm, Democrats outperformed during the 2017-18 election cycle by 10.6 points in aggregate, according to historical data compiled by The Downballot.