Morning Digest: This Democrat who nearly flipped a tough seat in 2024 is seeking a rematch

And the GOP incumbent keeps underperforming despite his district's conservative lean

Wisconsin Democrat Rebecca Cooke (credit: Rebecca Cooke campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

WI-03

Democrat Rebecca Cooke, who came close to unseating Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden last year despite heavy headwinds, announced on Tuesday that she'd seek a rematch.

Cooke's new campaign marks her third run for Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District, a heavily rural district that includes Eau Claire and La Crosse in the state's southwestern corner but also Stevens Point at its center. In 2022, Cooke, a small businesswoman and nonprofit head, lost the Democratic primary by a 39-31 margin to state Sen. Brad Pfaff, who in turn lost what was then an open seat to Van Orden 52-48.

That close result in the general election came as a surprise to major Democratic spenders, who had largely turned their backs on Pfaff, figuring the race to be a lost cause. With Democrats determined not to make the same mistake again, Cooke launched a second bid and this time secured the party's nomination with a 50-42 win over state Rep. Katrina Shankland.

Cooke raised much more money than Pfaff did, and this time, outside groups spent heavily on her behalf. But the pressure from the top of the ticket proved too great: En route to flipping Wisconsin, Donald Trump carried the 3rd District 53-46, according to calculations by The Downballot, improving on his 52-47 showing four years earlier.

Cooke came much closer, losing to Van Orden just 51-49—an outcome that has Democrats believing the seat is still flippable. Van Orden has also made himself a target thanks to a history of appalling conduct.

After falling just short against Democratic Rep. Ron Kind in 2020—also by a 51-49 margin—Van Orden traveled to Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6 and, as the Daily Beast reported, went inside a restricted area at the Capitol as rioters attacked the building at Trump's behest. Pfaff highlighted the incident in campaign ads, but Van Orden nonetheless prevailed on his second try.

The following year, Van Orden screamed at teenage Senate pages in the Capitol rotunda after an event in his office where alcohol was served.

"Wake the fuck up, you little shits," he reportedly yelled at the pages, who were laying on the floor to take pictures of the rotunda's dome. "What the fuck are you all doing? Get the fuck out of here. You are defiling the place." (Taking such photos is apparently a page tradition.)

Van Orden refused to apologize, even after getting upbraided by Senate leaders from both parties. He's also continued his obnoxious behavior: Earlier this month, he berated a disabled veteran named Tony Ruiz, who had messaged him on LinkedIn asking that he intervene to stop the mass firing of federal workers. (Van Orden, a former Navy SEAL, serves on the Committee on Veterans' Affairs.)

"I will be referring you to DOGE as it seems that at 13:46 on a Monday you should have been working for veterans, not posting trash about your boss, President Trump," Van Orden wrote, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "There needs to be accountability. Now. Have a great day."

As the paper reported, Ruiz had already been laid off by the VA the previous month.

Given Van Orden's vulnerability, Cooke could have company in the Democratic primary. Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge told UpNorthNews this week that she's considering entering the race, and unnamed sources say she plans to decide sometime after the April 1 contest for the state Supreme Court.

Pfaff, for his part, reportedly had ruled out a second bid but "has since received encouragement to mount a new campaign," per the Journal Sentinel. The paper reports, however, that Shankland, who recently took a new job running a progressive organization, is a no.

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Election Recaps

Special Elections

Democrats once again dramatically outperformed the top of the ticket in a legislative special election in Iowa, while their counterparts in Minnesota successfully defended a vacant seat to restore the state House to a 67-67 tie and ensure equal representation on committees.

In eastern Iowa's 100th District, Republican Blaine Watkins managed a 52-48 victory over Democrat Nannette Griffin, a result far tighter than normal. While Democrats won the predecessor version of this seat as recently as 2018, it's since shifted sharply to the right, so much so that Donald Trump carried it by a 62-36 margin last year, according to calculations by The Downballot.

The win preserves the GOP's 67-33 supermajority in the state House but portends trouble for Republicans in Iowa and elsewhere. In January, Democrat Mike Zimmer won a shock upset to flip a very similar Senate district in the same part of the state, and in a dozen special elections so far this year, Democrats are outperforming the 2024 presidential numbers by about 10 points.

In Minnesota, meanwhile, Democrats held District 40B in the St. Paul suburbs, as David Gottfriend defeated Republican Paul Wikstrom 70-30. Kamala Harris prevailed here 68-30 last fall.

While the district was vacant, the GOP had sought to use its temporary one-seat advantage to take unilateral control of the chamber. However, it was rebuffed by the state Supreme Court, which said it needed a majority of 68 votes to act under the state constitution.

As a result, the parties worked out a power-sharing agreement under which Republican Lisa Demuth would become speaker but committees would be equally divided, with one co-chair from each party. That agreement was contingent on Democrats regaining their 67th seat, which they did on Tuesday night.

Senate

MN-Sen, MN-01

Republican Rep. Brad Finstad dispelled any talk he could run for the Senate on Monday when he told KTTC he'd seek reelection to the House. Minnesota's 1st District, which is based in the southern part of the state, favored Donald Trump 55-43 last year.

Governors

CA-Gov

Former Rep. Katie Porter launched a bid for California's open governorship on Tuesday, forging ahead with a campaign even as Kamala Harris' looming decision has largely frozen the Democratic field.

Porter joins a primary already filled to the brim with heavyweight candidates, many of whom have been in the race (and raising money) for quite some time. Waiting for Harris to decide—Politico recently reported her timetable as "the end of summer"—would have put Porter even further behind the pack.

Should Harris ultimately join the contest, just about every contender has signaled that they'd bow out, including Porter herself. In comments at a panel in December, Porter said she was "certain" that a Harris bid "would have a near field-clearing effect on the Democratic side."

Morning Digest: California's next race for governor is huge—and getting huger

If Harris stays out, Porter will have a shot at redemption after her previous campaign for statewide office ended in disappointment. Last year, she finished a distant third in the top-two primary for the state's open Senate seat, taking 15% of the vote as fellow Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and Republican Steve Garvey advanced to the general election with 32% apiece.

Porter had demonstrated fundraising prowess in flipping a GOP-held seat in Orange County (then numbered the 45th District) in 2018, and she developed a national following among progressives as many of her interrogations of corporate executives during congressional hearings—armed with a whiteboard—went viral.

But Porter could not compete with the greater celebrity of Schiff, who'd become a hero to many liberals for leading Donald Trump's first impeachment and raised even more massive sums as a result. Schiff also used his giant war chest to elevate Garvey, rightly concluding he'd be easier to beat in the general election, prompting Porter to do the same with a different Republican candidate. In the end, though, the primary wasn't close.

As she gears up to try again, Porter will have some fences to mend as well: The day after her loss, she blamed her defeat on "an onslaught of billionaires spending millions to rig this election," infuriating Democrats by using language reminiscent of Trump's. Porter later said she regretted her choice of words.

FL-Gov

The radical anti-tax Club for Growth has endorsed Republican Rep. Byron Donalds' bid to serve as Florida's next governor. The deep-pocketed group spent $2.5 million on Donalds' behalf in 2020 when he sought the open 19th District and won the GOP primary by fewer than 800 votes. Donalds, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, has so far drawn no opposition from fellow Republicans, but Casey DeSantis, the wife of term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis, could run.

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KS-Gov

Former Johnson County Commissioner Charlotte O'Hara, a hardliner who lost reelection last year, has entered the Republican primary in the race to succeed term-limited Democrat Laura Kelly as Kansas' next governor. She's the second Republican to launch a bid after Secretary of State Scott Schwab, but others are still considering.

O'Hara kicked off her campaign by saying she would not "stand silent" and "watch our children drown in the sewer of WOKEism in our schools"—a message that might play well in a GOP primary but likely helped lead to her defeat in November.

Johnson County, the state's largest, was once reliably conservative turf, but like so many other suburban areas, it's moved sharply away from Republicans ever since Donald Trump came on the scene. While that trend slowed in 2024, O'Hara nonetheless lost her bid for reelection to Democrat Julie Brewer by a 53-47 margin.

House

GA-06

More names are surfacing as potential candidates to succeed Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath, who is preparing to run for governor of Georgia, in the safely blue 6th District.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s list now includes state Rep. Kimberly Alexander and a pair of former state representatives: William Boddie, who was the party's unsuccessful 2022 nominee for state labor commissioner, and Alisha Thomas Searcy, who lost the general election for school superintendent that year. None of these Democrats appear to have said anything publicly about their interest.

KY-04

Donald Trump has once again demanded that Republican Rep. Thomas Massie be primaried, kvetching on social media that the congressman is an "automatic 'NO' vote on just about everything" and likening him to Liz Cheney. But while Trump managed to oust the Wyoming congresswoman, previous outbursts directed at Massie got him nowhere.

Massie, a libertarian in the Ron Paul mold who represents Kentucky's conservative 4th District, responded by insisting he would "run again because we need at least one person in Congress who won't cave" (though he's also teased a Senate bid). That same attitude propelled him to an easy victory in 2020, even after Trump issued a call to "throw Massie out of Republican Party" for holding up a COVID relief bill at the start of the pandemic.

That prompted some Republicans—including, ironically, Cheney—to rally around Massie's primary opponent, attorney Todd McMurtry. But Massie raised a ton of money following Trump's tirade, and McMurtry was exposed for a history of bigoted tweets (though they'd probably fit in just fine in today's GOP). He went on to a landslide 81-19 victory and won both of his subsequent primaries with 75% of the vote.

MN-04

Democratic Rep. Betty McCollum says she hasn't decided whether to seek a 14th term, though the 70-year-old incumbent sounds like she intends to run again. McCollum, who represents a safely blue seat around St. Paul, told Minnesota Public Radio last week, "I enjoy doing the job. I have enough seniority that I know how to pull some of the levers."

NY-04

Former Republican Rep. Anthony D'Esposito is "expected" to seek a rematch against Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, according to two unnamed sources "familiar with the plans" who spoke with Semafor's Kadia Goba.

In January, Nassau County GOP chair Joe Cairo floated D'Esposito's name for a possible comeback bid, but the ex-congressman has yet to say anything publicly. D'Esposito flipped New York's open 4th District in 2022 by defeating Gillen 52-48, but two years later, Gillen ran again and won 51-49.

Mayors & County Leaders

Boston, MA Mayor

Prominent developer Thomas O'Brien is considering challenging Boston Mayor Michelle Wu this fall, the Boston Globe's Shirley Leung reports. While O'Brien's name had not previously surfaced, Leung writes that he's "been quietly weighing for months" whether to enter the September nonpartisan primary. She adds that O'Brien "would be expected to run as a Democrat" in this dark blue city.

Wu, one of the most prominent Democrats in New England, already faces intraparty opposition from former nonprofit head Josh Kraft. Leung says that O'Brien may be watching to see how Kraft's campaign develops before proceeding. Both O'Brien and Kraft have comparable backgrounds, and not only because of their business connections: O'Brien's brother, Bill O'Brien, coaches Boston College's football team, while Kraft's father is New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft.