It's like I said a few weeks ago, Reynolds having to defend DOGE and job losses in the farming industry to angry Iowans next year wouldn't be good for her.
I am praying, crossing my fingers, manifesting and doing a lot of letter writing via Vote Forward to get things turned around next year.
Ernst losing her seat next year (as well as Tillis and Collins) would be richly deserved. And if any other shock R-to-D Senate flips happen next year, I welcome it.
It is really hard to see how Democrats can beat Ernst next year. The last sitting U.S. senator to lose a re-election bid in Iowa was Roger Jepsen, who lost to Tom Harkin in 1984. And the GOP voter registration advantage in Iowa is very large now.
But I'm glad to see credible Democratic candidates planning to run for Senate because if the bottom falls out for Ernst, who knows?
Ernst performed several percentage points lower in 2020 than Trump did when he beat Biden in the state. Her re-election margin of victory dropped by nearly 2% points from her Senate election back in the 2014 midterms.
Even though Hubbell was the favorite before the election.
Republicans also found more success downballot with a similar turnout other than Rob. Another reason I am skeptical is because of the increased polarization and even lesser ticket splitting today. Republican cuts may turn off rural areas but we'll have to see.
I think Reynolds would have been strongly favored to be re-elected in 2026. The Republican voter registration advantage in Iowa is massive now, around 175,000. No-party turnout craters in midterm elections so even with strong D turnout and winning independents, very hard to get to a win number in a statewide election.
It's going to be much, MUCH bigger than 1974. We haven't had events like this in the US since the 1870s or 1860s. The anti-fascist wave looks like it's going to be very, very big.
In 2018, 2020, and 2022, Iowa Republicans indeed turned respectable victories in statewide races, but I must say that across all three cycles -- it wasn't the North Korea-style margins that we often see in other red states. In fact, we have almost won a lot of these cycles, despite oftentimes running B/C tier candidates. Even when we didn't win, the base still blocked them from anything higher than the mid to upper 50s in terms of percentage. So I think under the right environment and with the right candidates (and the right resources and funding), Iowa Democrats can surprise us next year.
Looking forward to seeing Angel Ramirez in the Iowa House chamber!
Worth noting that Republicans didn't spend anything on this special election, as far as I can tell from filings. Democrats didn't spend a lot but they did put $6,000 into digital ads, lit, and postcards.
Republicans spent a lot of money on the March special election in Iowa House district 100, a red district where Nannette Griffin overperformed but fell just short.
Such incredibly good news!!! We have to show up everywhere, run Dems run in deep red districts where “they can’t possibly win” until they can. See Every State Blue, Blue Ohio, Blue Missouri and Blue CD2 New Mexico for strong, persistent, against-all-odds grassroots funding of Dems in downballot races, building the bench and building for the win.
Good riddance to Kim Reynolds. She’s a Lutheran and she couldn’t bring herself to denounce Mike Flynn and Elon Musk accusing Lutheran Family Services of being a money-laundering operation! Chuck Grassley retire next, please!
You report there is still Republican house majority....67 to 33.
I didn't see new representative campaign.....but democrats in Iowa have been boring conservatives running against even more conservative conservatives.......
Their usual campaign slogan...."we're exactly like the Republicans....only less so" has failed to inspire. .....
Iowa is a state that since 1980 feels every year more like how I imagine Alabama or Mississippi in the 1950s must have felt for people not white enough and wealthy enough to be considered what some government Employees in Davenport Iowa openly call "higher class citizens."
You Iowans are gonna be soooorry. She ‘ll get free healthcare for every pregnant Latina in the state and your neighborhoods will be overrun with them…..wait, that’s what’s happening NOW.
It's like I said a few weeks ago, Reynolds having to defend DOGE and job losses in the farming industry to angry Iowans next year wouldn't be good for her.
Might not go too well for Ernst either...
I am praying, crossing my fingers, manifesting and doing a lot of letter writing via Vote Forward to get things turned around next year.
Ernst losing her seat next year (as well as Tillis and Collins) would be richly deserved. And if any other shock R-to-D Senate flips happen next year, I welcome it.
1980: deja vu all over again in the opposite direction.
It is really hard to see how Democrats can beat Ernst next year. The last sitting U.S. senator to lose a re-election bid in Iowa was Roger Jepsen, who lost to Tom Harkin in 1984. And the GOP voter registration advantage in Iowa is very large now.
But I'm glad to see credible Democratic candidates planning to run for Senate because if the bottom falls out for Ernst, who knows?
And of course it’s bad news for Miller-Meeks and Nunn, and maybe even Hinson will have a race on her hands next year.
Ernst performed several percentage points lower in 2020 than Trump did when he beat Biden in the state. Her re-election margin of victory dropped by nearly 2% points from her Senate election back in the 2014 midterms.
2014
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2014/iowa-elections
2020
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/senate/
Not sure, you can't win Iowa without white working class voters and we have totally lost them since Obama.
Republicans won Iowa by healthy margins in both 2018 blue wave and 2020.
The 2018 Gov race was less than 3 pts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Iowa_gubernatorial_election
Even though Hubbell was the favorite before the election.
Republicans also found more success downballot with a similar turnout other than Rob. Another reason I am skeptical is because of the increased polarization and even lesser ticket splitting today. Republican cuts may turn off rural areas but we'll have to see.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Iowa_elections
Sure, the (limited number) of polls were mostly off, but you can't call 3 points a "healthy margin"!
Yes.
I think Reynolds would have been strongly favored to be re-elected in 2026. The Republican voter registration advantage in Iowa is massive now, around 175,000. No-party turnout craters in midterm elections so even with strong D turnout and winning independents, very hard to get to a win number in a statewide election.
If the D Senate candidate peels off a small percentage of Iowan Republican voters ticked off by DOGE and job losses, is it possible to flip it?
Very challenging. It would have to be a 1974 level wave.
It's going to be much, MUCH bigger than 1974. We haven't had events like this in the US since the 1870s or 1860s. The anti-fascist wave looks like it's going to be very, very big.
In 2018, 2020, and 2022, Iowa Republicans indeed turned respectable victories in statewide races, but I must say that across all three cycles -- it wasn't the North Korea-style margins that we often see in other red states. In fact, we have almost won a lot of these cycles, despite oftentimes running B/C tier candidates. Even when we didn't win, the base still blocked them from anything higher than the mid to upper 50s in terms of percentage. So I think under the right environment and with the right candidates (and the right resources and funding), Iowa Democrats can surprise us next year.
The voter registration numbers are much worse for Democrats now than in 2018 or 2020.
Independents vote Democratic. It's an "I'm disgusted with the DNC leadership but I'm not a fascist" registration choice
I'm not really seeing how Laura Belin's pundit tsk-tsking is helping anybody.
She wouldn’t survive plus her drinking habit has been bad for a long time
Foreshadowing for 2026
Looking forward to seeing Angel Ramirez in the Iowa House chamber!
Worth noting that Republicans didn't spend anything on this special election, as far as I can tell from filings. Democrats didn't spend a lot but they did put $6,000 into digital ads, lit, and postcards.
https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2025/04/30/another-democratic-overperformance-as-angel-ramirez-wins-house-district-78/
Republicans spent a lot of money on the March special election in Iowa House district 100, a red district where Nannette Griffin overperformed but fell just short.
https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2025/03/12/watkins-wins-but-underperforms-in-iowa-house-district-100/
Wonderful !!!
Don’t get our hopes up!
Such incredibly good news!!! We have to show up everywhere, run Dems run in deep red districts where “they can’t possibly win” until they can. See Every State Blue, Blue Ohio, Blue Missouri and Blue CD2 New Mexico for strong, persistent, against-all-odds grassroots funding of Dems in downballot races, building the bench and building for the win.
Good riddance to Kim Reynolds. She’s a Lutheran and she couldn’t bring herself to denounce Mike Flynn and Elon Musk accusing Lutheran Family Services of being a money-laundering operation! Chuck Grassley retire next, please!
You report there is still Republican house majority....67 to 33.
I didn't see new representative campaign.....but democrats in Iowa have been boring conservatives running against even more conservative conservatives.......
Their usual campaign slogan...."we're exactly like the Republicans....only less so" has failed to inspire. .....
Iowa is a state that since 1980 feels every year more like how I imagine Alabama or Mississippi in the 1950s must have felt for people not white enough and wealthy enough to be considered what some government Employees in Davenport Iowa openly call "higher class citizens."
Dodobbird.pixels.com (art)
The tide is turning
Congratulations to all of them. Now stand up and make it clear you will not kowtow to the opposition’s shredding of the Constitution.
A bright spot in a dull state. Thanks for highlighting it!
Delighted to hear that some Democratic messaging getting through 😉
You Iowans are gonna be soooorry. She ‘ll get free healthcare for every pregnant Latina in the state and your neighborhoods will be overrun with them…..wait, that’s what’s happening NOW.