31 Comments
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MPC's avatar

It's like I said a few weeks ago, Reynolds having to defend DOGE and job losses in the farming industry to angry Iowans next year wouldn't be good for her.

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David Nir's avatar

Might not go too well for Ernst either...

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MPC's avatar

I am praying, crossing my fingers, manifesting and doing a lot of letter writing via Vote Forward to get things turned around next year.

Ernst losing her seat next year (as well as Tillis and Collins) would be richly deserved. And if any other shock R-to-D Senate flips happen next year, I welcome it.

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Burt Kloner's avatar

1980: deja vu all over again in the opposite direction.

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Laura Belin's avatar

It is really hard to see how Democrats can beat Ernst next year. The last sitting U.S. senator to lose a re-election bid in Iowa was Roger Jepsen, who lost to Tom Harkin in 1984. And the GOP voter registration advantage in Iowa is very large now.

But I'm glad to see credible Democratic candidates planning to run for Senate because if the bottom falls out for Ernst, who knows?

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Guy's avatar

And of course it’s bad news for Miller-Meeks and Nunn, and maybe even Hinson will have a race on her hands next year.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Ernst performed several percentage points lower in 2020 than Trump did when he beat Biden in the state. Her re-election margin of victory dropped by nearly 2% points from her Senate election back in the 2014 midterms.

2014

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2014/iowa-elections

2020

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/senate/

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PollJunkie's avatar

Not sure, you can't win Iowa without white working class voters and we have totally lost them since Obama.

Republicans won Iowa by healthy margins in both 2018 blue wave and 2020.

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David Nir's avatar

The 2018 Gov race was less than 3 pts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Iowa_gubernatorial_election

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PollJunkie's avatar

Even though Hubbell was the favorite before the election.

Republicans also found more success downballot with a similar turnout other than Rob. Another reason I am skeptical is because of the increased polarization and even lesser ticket splitting today. Republican cuts may turn off rural areas but we'll have to see.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Iowa_elections

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David Nir's avatar

Sure, the (limited number) of polls were mostly off, but you can't call 3 points a "healthy margin"!

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PollJunkie's avatar

Yes.

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Laura Belin's avatar

I think Reynolds would have been strongly favored to be re-elected in 2026. The Republican voter registration advantage in Iowa is massive now, around 175,000. No-party turnout craters in midterm elections so even with strong D turnout and winning independents, very hard to get to a win number in a statewide election.

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MPC's avatar

If the D Senate candidate peels off a small percentage of Iowan Republican voters ticked off by DOGE and job losses, is it possible to flip it?

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Laura Belin's avatar

Very challenging. It would have to be a 1974 level wave.

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Voter1919's avatar

In 2018, 2020, and 2022, Iowa Republicans indeed turned respectable victories in statewide races, but I must say that across all three cycles -- it wasn't the North Korea-style margins that we often see in other red states. In fact, we have almost won a lot of these cycles, despite oftentimes running B/C tier candidates. Even when we didn't win, the base still blocked them from anything higher than the mid to upper 50s in terms of percentage. So I think under the right environment and with the right candidates (and the right resources and funding), Iowa Democrats can surprise us next year.

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Laura Belin's avatar

The voter registration numbers are much worse for Democrats now than in 2018 or 2020.

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Sam Carson's avatar

I'm not really seeing how Laura Belin's pundit tsk-tsking is helping anybody.

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Alyssa's avatar

She wouldn’t survive plus her drinking habit has been bad for a long time

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ADjerz's avatar

Foreshadowing for 2026

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Laura Belin's avatar

Looking forward to seeing Angel Ramirez in the Iowa House chamber!

Worth noting that Republicans didn't spend anything on this special election, as far as I can tell from filings. Democrats didn't spend a lot but they did put $6,000 into digital ads, lit, and postcards.

https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2025/04/30/another-democratic-overperformance-as-angel-ramirez-wins-house-district-78/

Republicans spent a lot of money on the March special election in Iowa House district 100, a red district where Nannette Griffin overperformed but fell just short.

https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2025/03/12/watkins-wins-but-underperforms-in-iowa-house-district-100/

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Mary Cuellar's avatar

Wonderful !!!

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Rob Rains's avatar

Don’t get our hopes up!

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Rochelle Williams's avatar

Such incredibly good news!!! We have to show up everywhere, run Dems run in deep red districts where “they can’t possibly win” until they can. See Every State Blue, Blue Ohio, Blue Missouri and Blue CD2 New Mexico for strong, persistent, against-all-odds grassroots funding of Dems in downballot races, building the bench and building for the win.

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Rebecca Carr's avatar

Good riddance to Kim Reynolds. She’s a Lutheran and she couldn’t bring herself to denounce Mike Flynn and Elon Musk accusing Lutheran Family Services of being a money-laundering operation! Chuck Grassley retire next, please!

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Dodo B Bird's avatar

You report there is still Republican house majority....67 to 33.

I didn't see new representative campaign.....but democrats in Iowa have been boring conservatives running against even more conservative conservatives.......

Their usual campaign slogan...."we're exactly like the Republicans....only less so" has failed to inspire. .....

Iowa is a state that since 1980 feels every year more like how I imagine Alabama or Mississippi in the 1950s must have felt for people not white enough and wealthy enough to be considered what some government Employees in Davenport Iowa openly call "higher class citizens."

Dodobbird.pixels.com (art)

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Sandy's avatar

The tide is turning

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Trish Keene's avatar

Congratulations to all of them. Now stand up and make it clear you will not kowtow to the opposition’s shredding of the Constitution.

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Suzan Erem's avatar

A bright spot in a dull state. Thanks for highlighting it!

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Baker’s Heartbeat's avatar

Delighted to hear that some Democratic messaging getting through 😉

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William Voelz's avatar

You Iowans are gonna be soooorry. She ‘ll get free healthcare for every pregnant Latina in the state and your neighborhoods will be overrun with them…..wait, that’s what’s happening NOW.

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