In 2018, 2020, and 2022, Iowa Republicans indeed turned respectable victories in statewide races, but I must say that across all three cycles -- it wasn't the North Korea-style margins that we often see in other red states. In fact, we have almost won a lot of these cycles, despite oftentimes running B/C tier candidates. Even when we did…
In 2018, 2020, and 2022, Iowa Republicans indeed turned respectable victories in statewide races, but I must say that across all three cycles -- it wasn't the North Korea-style margins that we often see in other red states. In fact, we have almost won a lot of these cycles, despite oftentimes running B/C tier candidates. Even when we didn't win, the base still blocked them from anything higher than the mid to upper 50s in terms of percentage. So I think under the right environment and with the right candidates (and the right resources and funding), Iowa Democrats can surprise us next year.
In 2018, 2020, and 2022, Iowa Republicans indeed turned respectable victories in statewide races, but I must say that across all three cycles -- it wasn't the North Korea-style margins that we often see in other red states. In fact, we have almost won a lot of these cycles, despite oftentimes running B/C tier candidates. Even when we didn't win, the base still blocked them from anything higher than the mid to upper 50s in terms of percentage. So I think under the right environment and with the right candidates (and the right resources and funding), Iowa Democrats can surprise us next year.
The voter registration numbers are much worse for Democrats now than in 2018 or 2020.