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Laura Belin's avatar

I think Reynolds would have been strongly favored to be re-elected in 2026. The Republican voter registration advantage in Iowa is massive now, around 175,000. No-party turnout craters in midterm elections so even with strong D turnout and winning independents, very hard to get to a win number in a statewide election.

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MPC's avatar

If the D Senate candidate peels off a small percentage of Iowan Republican voters ticked off by DOGE and job losses, is it possible to flip it?

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Laura Belin's avatar

Very challenging. It would have to be a 1974 level wave.

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Voter1919's avatar

In 2018, 2020, and 2022, Iowa Republicans indeed turned respectable victories in statewide races, but I must say that across all three cycles -- it wasn't the North Korea-style margins that we often see in other red states. In fact, we have almost won a lot of these cycles, despite oftentimes running B/C tier candidates. Even when we didn't win, the base still blocked them from anything higher than the mid to upper 50s in terms of percentage. So I think under the right environment and with the right candidates (and the right resources and funding), Iowa Democrats can surprise us next year.

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Laura Belin's avatar

The voter registration numbers are much worse for Democrats now than in 2018 or 2020.

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Sam Carson's avatar

I'm not really seeing how Laura Belin's pundit tsk-tsking is helping anybody.

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