I think Reynolds would have been strongly favored to be re-elected in 2026. The Republican voter registration advantage in Iowa is massive now, around 175,000. No-party turnout craters in midterm elections so even with strong D turnout and winning independents, very hard to get to a win number in a statewide election.
I think Reynolds would have been strongly favored to be re-elected in 2026. The Republican voter registration advantage in Iowa is massive now, around 175,000. No-party turnout craters in midterm elections so even with strong D turnout and winning independents, very hard to get to a win number in a statewide election.
In 2018, 2020, and 2022, Iowa Republicans indeed turned respectable victories in statewide races, but I must say that across all three cycles -- it wasn't the North Korea-style margins that we often see in other red states. In fact, we have almost won a lot of these cycles, despite oftentimes running B/C tier candidates. Even when we didn't win, the base still blocked them from anything higher than the mid to upper 50s in terms of percentage. So I think under the right environment and with the right candidates (and the right resources and funding), Iowa Democrats can surprise us next year.
I think Reynolds would have been strongly favored to be re-elected in 2026. The Republican voter registration advantage in Iowa is massive now, around 175,000. No-party turnout craters in midterm elections so even with strong D turnout and winning independents, very hard to get to a win number in a statewide election.
If the D Senate candidate peels off a small percentage of Iowan Republican voters ticked off by DOGE and job losses, is it possible to flip it?
Very challenging. It would have to be a 1974 level wave.
In 2018, 2020, and 2022, Iowa Republicans indeed turned respectable victories in statewide races, but I must say that across all three cycles -- it wasn't the North Korea-style margins that we often see in other red states. In fact, we have almost won a lot of these cycles, despite oftentimes running B/C tier candidates. Even when we didn't win, the base still blocked them from anything higher than the mid to upper 50s in terms of percentage. So I think under the right environment and with the right candidates (and the right resources and funding), Iowa Democrats can surprise us next year.
The voter registration numbers are much worse for Democrats now than in 2018 or 2020.
I'm not really seeing how Laura Belin's pundit tsk-tsking is helping anybody.