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David Nir's avatar

Might not go too well for Ernst either...

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MPC's avatar

I am praying, crossing my fingers, manifesting and doing a lot of letter writing via Vote Forward to get things turned around next year.

Ernst losing her seat next year (as well as Tillis and Collins) would be richly deserved. And if any other shock R-to-D Senate flips happen next year, I welcome it.

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Burt Kloner's avatar

1980: deja vu all over again in the opposite direction.

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Laura Belin's avatar

It is really hard to see how Democrats can beat Ernst next year. The last sitting U.S. senator to lose a re-election bid in Iowa was Roger Jepsen, who lost to Tom Harkin in 1984. And the GOP voter registration advantage in Iowa is very large now.

But I'm glad to see credible Democratic candidates planning to run for Senate because if the bottom falls out for Ernst, who knows?

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Guy's avatar

And of course itтАЩs bad news for Miller-Meeks and Nunn, and maybe even Hinson will have a race on her hands next year.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Ernst performed several percentage points lower in 2020 than Trump did when he beat Biden in the state. Her re-election margin of victory dropped by nearly 2% points from her Senate election back in the 2014 midterms.

2014

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2014/iowa-elections

2020

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/senate/

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PollJunkie's avatar

Not sure, you can't win Iowa without white working class voters and we have totally lost them since Obama.

Republicans won Iowa by healthy margins in both 2018 blue wave and 2020.

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David Nir's avatar

The 2018 Gov race was less than 3 pts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Iowa_gubernatorial_election

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PollJunkie's avatar

Even though Hubbell was the favorite before the election.

Republicans also found more success downballot with a similar turnout other than Rob. Another reason I am skeptical is because of the increased polarization and even lesser ticket splitting today. Republican cuts may turn off rural areas but we'll have to see.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Iowa_elections

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David Nir's avatar

Sure, the (limited number) of polls were mostly off, but you can't call 3 points a "healthy margin"!

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PollJunkie's avatar

Yes.

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