5 Comments
User's avatar
тна Return to thread
PollJunkie's avatar

Not sure, you can't win Iowa without white working class voters and we have totally lost them since Obama.

Republicans won Iowa by healthy margins in both 2018 blue wave and 2020.

Expand full comment
David Nir's avatar

The 2018 Gov race was less than 3 pts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Iowa_gubernatorial_election

Expand full comment
PollJunkie's avatar

Even though Hubbell was the favorite before the election.

Republicans also found more success downballot with a similar turnout other than Rob. Another reason I am skeptical is because of the increased polarization and even lesser ticket splitting today. Republican cuts may turn off rural areas but we'll have to see.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Iowa_elections

Expand full comment
David Nir's avatar

Sure, the (limited number) of polls were mostly off, but you can't call 3 points a "healthy margin"!

Expand full comment
PollJunkie's avatar

Yes.

Expand full comment