Morning Digest: Why Senate Republicans won't be sad to see Tommy Tuberville run for governor

The Alabama senator has cleared the field, but a heated race awaits for his seat in Congress

Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville of Alabama (credit: Tommy Tuberville campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

AL-Gov, AL-Sen

Sen. Tommy Tuberville just cleared the Republican primary ahead of next year's race for Alabama's open governorship—and he hasn't even launched a campaign yet.

The last potential impediment to Tuberville's career switch, Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth, announced on Wednesday that he would not run to replace termed-out Gov. Kay Ivey.

Ainsworth had spent the last several years looking like an all but certain candidate, so much so that conservative radio host Jeff Poor wrote in 2023 that he was "widely considered the prohibitive favorite." The lieutenant governor still enjoyed frontrunner status in January when he reported having over $1 million stockpiled as he prepared to enter what was shaping up to be a busy primary.

But everything began to change just two months later when Punchbowl News reported that Tuberville, whose previous career as Auburn University's football coach first made him a household name, was likely to run for Ivey's job rather than seek a second term in Congress. Most potential rivals soon said that they wouldn't oppose the senator, with only Ainsworth saying that he was willing to take on Tuberville.

But Ainsworth eventually joined the other would-be contenders and backed down on Wednesday. The lieutenant governor did not mention Tuberville in a statement announcing his decision, saying only that he and his wife had decided they'd prefer to spend their time "focusing on our children during their last years in high school."

Ainsworth's choice sets Tuberville on course for an easy win in this dark red state, though he could still face a familiar foe in the general election. Former Sen. Doug Jones, the Democrat who decisively lost reelection to Tuberville in 2020, has not ruled out running for governor. Jones, though, has also expressed openness to running for his old Senate seat.

Morning Digest: Doug Jones, famous for his historic upset, teases a comeback

Tuberville himself still has yet to confirm he'll run for Ivey's job, but Punchbowl says that his kickoff will take place next week. Many of Tuberville's fellow Republicans in the Senate will be eagerly awaiting this announcement, as it means they'll soon be done having to deal with him.

Tuberville earned national attention in February of 2023 when he used parliamentary rules to single-handedly prevent the Senate from confirming any military promotions. The Alabamian justified his blockade by citing a Defense Department policy paying for service members to travel so that they could receive abortion care, but even his ideological allies expressed disgust with his actions.

"No matter whether you believe it or not, Sen. Tuberville, this is doing great damage to our military," South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham bluntly told him on the Senate floor that November. Later that month, Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan delivered what Politico described as a "fiery 10-minute speech" behind closed doors telling Tuberville that he'd side with Democrats to move the promotions forward.

Tuberville, who told his caucus, "I got y'all into this mess. I'm gonna get you out," finally relented the next month and allowed the promotions to go forward after almost a year of delays.

Tuberville is also likely to be one of three sitting senators running to lead their respective states next year. Colorado Democrat Michael Bennet announced his campaign for governor last month, while Tennessee Republican Marsha Blackburn has also prepped a bid.

But while Bennet and Blackburn could remain in the Senate if they lose—Bennet won his most recent six-year term in 2022, while Blackburn secured reelection last year—Tuberville is up for reelection next year. As a consequence, if he does pursue his gubernatorial ambitions, it'll open up his Senate seat, which might prove attractive to some of the candidates he pushed out of the governor's race.

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The Downballot Podcast

How MA AG Andrea Campbell is fighting Trump

Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell has an extraordinary story to tell, and she's sharing it with us on this week's edition of The Downballot podcast. Despite an early life dominated by tragedy, including the death of her twin brother while incarcerated, Campbell rose to become the state's top law enforcement official. She explains how she's used her office both to fight for her constituents—on matters from housing affordability to gun violence—and fight against Donald Trump, with a special focus on his lawless executive order seeking to upend American elections.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's elections, including primaries in Pennsylvania's biggest cities and an extremely unusual special election in New York City. The Davids then dive into the unfolding GOP meltdown in Virginia and explain why the Republican approach to candidate diversity keeps blowing up in their faces. Finally, they preview next year's race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which will be another barn burner.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Senate

ME-Sen

Maine Gov. Janet Mills has been cagey about her interest in a Senate bid, but she's actively considering running against Republican Sen. Susan Collins, according to Rep. Chellie Pingree, a fellow Democrat.

"She's been saying to people, 'Yeah, I'm thinking about it," Pingree told Punchbowl's Ally Mutnick, though she also acknowledged, "It's a big mystery." The term-limited Mills is 77 and is not "eager" to run, Mutnick says, but her high-profile sparring with Trump over trans athletes this year—a fight in which Mills emerged the victor—has made her "more receptive to recruitment entreaties."

SC-Sen

Wealthy businessman Mark Lynch has launched what he says is his first broadcast TV ad in his campaign to defeat South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham in next year's Republican primary.

Lynch, who self-funded $5 million during the first three months of the year, said his opening salvo is "backed by significant dollars on air and online," though he did not reveal how much he's actually spending.

The challenger's commercial touts him as a conservative "family man" who will "eradicate violent illegal invaders and terrorists." The spot goes on to excoriate Graham as one of the "war-mongering, backstabbing traitors" who need to be "removed." The ad does not mention Donald Trump, who endorsed Graham in March.

Governors

FL-Gov

Matt Gaetz is still considering a bid for governor, reports NBC News, even though Donald Trump anointed Rep. Byron Donalds as his preferred candidate to succeed term-limited Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis months ago.

Gaetz has long enjoyed flirting for bids with higher office—even teasing at one point some years ago that he might run for Senate in Alabama—and he continues to keep his name in the papers by doing so today.

"It's very early," he told NBC. "Many tectonic plates can shift in Florida in the next year or so." Gaetz, whose nomination last year to serve as Trump's attorney general collapsed in just eight days, is very familiar with just how quickly seismic shifts can strike in politics.

IA-Gov

Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig said Tuesday that he'd seek reelection rather than enter the GOP primary for Iowa's open governorship. Republicans have held the post of agriculture secretary since the 2006 elections.

IL-Gov

Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker, who is eligible to seek a third term leading Illinois next year, tells ABC7 Chicago he'll make a decision by July. As the station notes, Democrats in populous Cook County (the home of Chicago) will issue endorsements that month, with meetings scheduled for July 17 and 18.

House

AR-03

Republican Rep. Steve Womack, who's something of a throwback as a self-described "institution guy" in today's MAGAfied GOP, announced Tuesday that he'd seek a ninth term next year representing Arkansas' 3rd District.

Last cycle, Womack flirted with retirement, saying that the likes of the Freedom Caucus had made serving in Congress "so unpleasant." Womack ultimately wound up running again, but far-right state Sen. Clint Penzo decided to challenge him for renomination.

The congressman ended up with just a 54-46 victory over Penzo, who had little money or outside support. It was also the first time that Womack struggled to win a primary since his first House campaign for this seat in the northwestern part of the state back in 2010.

Should Womack fall short in next year's primary, though, Democrats would still be hard-pressed to put the 3rd District, which Republicans have held since the 1966 election, in play. Indeed, none other than Bill Clinton came just shy of victory in 1974 when, as a 28-year-old first-time candidate, he ran for a previous incarnation of this seat. According to calculations from The Downballot, Donald Trump carried Womack's district by a 61-36 margin in 2024.

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AZ-07

Former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez has released his first ad ahead of the July 15 Democratic primary for the special election in Arizona's vacant 7th District, backed by what his campaign says is a six-figure buy on broadcast TV and digital TV.

"I come from a big, loud Mexican family," Hernandez says in the spot, which includes dialog in both English and Spanish. "So when I need to, I speak up"—specifically, he says, "against Donald Trump and his attacks on our health care and Social Security."

Hernandez faces former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva and progressive organizer Deja Foxx in the race to succeed Rep. Raul Grijalva, who died earlier this year. (Adelita Grijalva is the late congressman's daughter.)

IL-07

Democratic state Rep. La Shawn Ford, an ally of Rep. Danny Davis, has begun telling power-brokers in Illinois' 7th District that he's preparing a bid for Congress, Politico reported on Wednesday. Later that same day, Ford filed paperwork with the FEC to create a campaign committee.

The 83-year-old Davis had sounded like he'd run for a 16th term representing the deep blue 7th District when he told Politico last month that he was "going to be in the fight for a long time." In the clubby world of Chicago politics, though, it's unlikely that Ford would challenge the incumbent, especially given their close relationship.

ME-02

Former Republican Gov. Paul LePage leads Democratic Rep. Jared Golden 48-43 in Maine's 2nd District, according to a month-old poll conducted by Ragnar Research for the Congressional Leadership Fund obtained by NOTUS.

Golden, who announced this week that he'd seek reelection rather than run for statewide office, dismissed the findings with some vivid imagery.

"Yeah alright, what's the poll question, 'Who are you more likely to spot on a Florida beach in a Speedo, Paul LePage or Jared Golden?'" he jabbed. LePage has spent much of his time in the Sunshine State since leaving the governor's mansion six years ago, excluding his return to Maine for his unsuccessful bid for his old post in 2022.

MI-11

State Sen. Jeremy Moss publicized an endorsement Wednesday from Attorney General Dana Nessel, who is one of the most prominent Democrats in Michigan, for next year's Democratic primary in the 11th District. Moss is currently the only notable Democrat running to succeed Rep. Haley Stevens, who is giving up her safely blue seat to run for the Senate, though several potential candidates are also considering.

VA-11

Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly died Wednesday at the age of 75 after a battle with esophageal cancer. Connolly, who underwent treatment days after winning a ninth term last fall, announced last month that he would not seek reelection because his cancer had returned.

A special election will be scheduled to replace Connolly in Virginia's 11th District, which is based in Fairfax County. Calculations by The Downballot show that Kamala Harris carried this Northern Virginia constituency 66-31 last year, so the Democratic nominee will be favored in the general election.

It remains to be seen, though, just how that nominee will be selected because Virginia allows parties to choose their candidates through three different methods.

Democrats and Republicans could each opt for a traditional state-run primary; a party convention open only to delegates; or a so-called firehouse primary, which is a small-scale nominating contest run by the party rather than the state. That last option would open the contest to all voters but would see smaller turnout than a normal primary.

The last special election for a U.S. House seat in Virginia was held following the death of Democratic Rep. Donald McEachin, who died in November of 2022 weeks after he won reelection to the safely blue 4th District.

Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin scheduled the election for the following February, a tight timeframe that didn't leave the state enough time to organize a traditional primary. Democrats instead opted to hold a firehouse primary, which state Sen. Jennifer McClellan overwhelmingly won before easily prevailing in the general election.

The race to replace Connolly began with his retirement announcement last month, though at the time, everyone was preparing for a state-run primary next year. Two prominent Democrats announced they were running before the congressman died: Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw, a former Connolly chief of staff who had his old boss' endorsement, and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky.

Whoever ultimately replaces Connolly will succeed a man who spent decades as one of the most prominent politicians in Fairfax County. Connolly first won a seat on the Board of Supervisors in 1995 when the county was still a Republican stronghold. But as we detailed last month in our look at the congressman's long career on the occasion of his retirement, Connolly's political rise coincided with Fairfax County's transformation into the blue bastion it is today.

Secretaries of State

IA-SoS, MI-SoS

Two Democrats who recently filed paperwork to run for secretary of state in their respective states have now launched campaigns: Navy veteran Ryan Peterman in Iowa and Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum in Michigan.

Peterman, the first Democrat to run, will be seeking to flip a post that's been held by Republican Paul Pate since 2015. Byrum, meanwhile, is the second notable Democrat to enter the race to succeed term-limited incumbent Jocelyn Benson, following Deputy Secretary of State Aghogho Edevbie. In Michigan, the Democratic nomination will be decided by delegates at a party gathering next year rather than through a traditional primary.

Judges

WI Supreme Court

A day after announcing her bid for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, Judge Chris Taylor received endorsements from the four fellow liberals she's hoping to join: Justices Rebecca Dallet, Jill Karofsky, and Janet Protasiewicz, and Justice-elect Susan Crawford, who won an open seat last month but won't be sworn in until Aug. 1.

The collective show of support is a strong signal that Taylor won't face any meaningful opposition in the February primary as she seeks to unseat conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley. If no other challengers emerge, the state would dispense with the primary altogether and proceed directly to a general election between Bradley and Taylor in April. Should Taylor win, she'd expand the liberal majority on the court to 5-2.

Morning Digest: Another major Supreme Court showdown is already underway in Wisconsin

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

Donald Trump's Justice Department has reportedly launched a criminal investigation into former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, but as the New York Times' Nicholas Fandos explains, the biggest question at the moment is whether the news will help or hurt Cuomo with just over a month left before New York City's Democratic primary for mayor.

The situation was probably best summed up by Cuomo's top rival in the race, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.

"Andrew Cuomo's career has been defined by corruption and deceit and his lying to Congress about his COVID response is no exception," Mamdani said in a statement. "But Donald Trump cannot be trusted to pursue justice. While I believe New Yorkers should reject the disgraced ex-Governor at the ballot box, the Trump administration's actions are dangerous."

Seattle, WA Mayor

Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell received an endorsement Tuesday from the MLK Labor coalition, a prominent AFL-CIO affiliate that opposed him during his last campaign in 2021. Harrell, who, like most politicians in Seattle, identifies as a Democrat, faces seven opponents in the Aug. 5 nonpartisan primary.