Morning Digest: Another major Supreme Court showdown is already underway in Wisconsin

Liberals could expand their majority—and block conservatives from control until the next decade

Wisconsin Appeals Court Judge Chris Taylor, liberal candidate for the state Supreme Court (credit: Chris Taylor campaign)

WI Supreme Court

Liberals in Wisconsin just landed their first—and possibly only—candidate to take on conservative Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley, who also learned she may have to defend her seat next April without the help of the world's richest man.

State Appeals Court Judge Chris Taylor launched her campaign less than two months after conservatives suffered a devastating defeat in their bid to flip the court. Judge Susan Crawford, the Democratic-backed candidate, overcame more than $20 million in spending from Elon Musk's network and decisively won the officially nonpartisan race for a 10-year term.

As a result, liberals will retain their 4-3 majority at least until 2028, barring any early departures.

A loss for Bradley, though, would expand the progressive majority to 5-2 in a swing state where right-wing justices controlled the court from 2008 through 2023. Such an outcome would also push the earliest date conservatives could retake the court until 2030.

Despite his major setback last month, Musk doesn't want to open his massive wallet to help Bradley—or any other conservatives, for that matter.

"I'm going to do a lot less in the future," he told Bloomberg News on Tuesday. "I think I've done enough."

Musk denied his change of heart had anything to do with any "blowback" his alliance with Donald Trump has brought to his businesses.

"If I see a reason to do political spending in the future, I will do it," he said, but added, "I don't currently see a reason."

Bradley, though, may actually be relieved to see less of Musk, whose efforts to aid conservative Brad Schimel in April may have backfired.

Crawford and her allies at the Wisconsin Democratic Party ran ads portraying Schimel as a Musk lackey, and the world's richest man was only too happy to help advance the narrative by holding a rally for Schimel during which he paid $1 million to a pair of voters.

Taylor did not focus on Musk in her kickoff, but she did highlight Bradley's long history of far-right extremism. The new challenger told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, "​​I would say my writing very much contrasts to the writing of Justice Rebecca Bradley, who is very political and has a right-wing agenda in her writing that can be discerned."

Indeed, as Quinn Yeargain detailed in 2023, the justice has been anything but subtle in airing her ideological and personal grievances.

Bradley, as Taylor highlighted Tuesday, was on the losing side in 2020 when the court refused to take up Trump's lawsuit to overturn his 2020 defeat in the state. In a dissent, she bolstered Trump's conspiracy theories, writing, "[T]he integrity of every election will be tarnished by the public's mistrust until the Wisconsin Supreme Court accepts its responsibility to declare what the election laws say."

Bradley was even more bitter in 2023 when Janet Protasiewicz won a crucial election that gave liberals their first majority on Wisconsin's highest court in 15 years. Bradley, who had suggested Protasiewicz should be impeached before she'd even been elected, castigated her progressive colleagues as "political hacks" and "politicians wearing robes," not "jurists."

She also didn't hide her scorn for Justice Brian Hagedorn, a fellow conservative who had sided with the liberals in that 2020 election suit. Bradley responded to Hagedorn's vote with his liberal colleagues on an unrelated case in 2023 by writing he should "revisit the judicial oath and resign if unwilling to fulfill it."

Bradley hoped conservatives would find themselves back in power this year, but Crawford's victory last month ended those dreams. Bradley characteristically responded to Crawford's win by telling reporters, "I think the way Judge Crawford ran her race was disgusting. … I'm not looking forward to working with her."

Taylor would be just fine if Bradley doesn't get to work for Crawford for long. The appeals court judge is currently the incumbent's only opponent, and there's reason to think no other major candidates will run.

Earlier this month, when Clark County Judge Lyndsey Boon Brunette announced she wouldn't join the race, an unnamed source told WisPolitics she'd demurred because she was worried that a contested February primary could undermine liberals in their quest to unseat Bradley.

Taylor, for her part, has a somewhat different background than the last few victorious liberal candidates. Prior to serving as a judge, she was a former Democratic member of the state Assembly, and Republicans quickly signaled that they'd focus on her voting record while in office.

But Taylor, whom Democratic Gov. Tony Evers appointed to the bench in 2020, argued she was anything but the partisan Bradley is. She told the Associated Press she was running "to make sure that people get a fair shake, that the judiciary remains independent and impartial and that people have confidence in the judiciary."

Election Recaps

NY State Senate

Democrat Sam Sutton resoundingly won a special election for a vacant state Senate seat in southern Brooklyn on Tuesday night, defeating Republican Nachman Caller by a 67-32 margin.

Donald Trump carried the 22nd District, which is home to a large Orthodox Jewish community, in a 77-22 landslide last year, so on the surface, Sutton's win might look like a massive repudiation of Trump.

But politics among strictly Orthodox Jews, known as Haredim, often don't map neatly onto the traditional left-right spectrum. Endorsements from esteemed religious leaders matter a great deal, and adherents usually vote with their leaders.

Frequently, these endorsements are communicated through posters in Yiddish, known as pashkevilim, like this one urging support for Sutton. (This unrelated article demonstrates what these broadsides look like when posted in public.)

While personally conservative, Haredi leaders are typically pragmatic and understand the value of having representatives who are part of the governing majority. In New York, that will usually mean supporting Democrats on the local level, even if, at the same time, these leaders back a Republican candidate for president.

Last year's elections offered a vivid illustration in the Hudson Valley village of Kiryas Joel, which is home almost exclusively to Hasidic Jews (a subset of Haredim). According to an analysis from the Haredi news site Shtetl, Trump won 8,187 votes to just 128 for Kamala Harris in Kiryas Joel, while at the same time, Democratic state Sen. James Skoufis won 7,313 votes on his way to reelection.

Other factors were also at play. As we noted in our preview, Sutton is a Sephardic Jew—meaning he traces his ancestry to Spain and Portugal—and a longtime leader of the Sephardic Community Federation. While the vast majority of American Jews are Ashkenazi, meaning they're of Eastern or Central European lineage, Sutton got a boost from the large Sephardic community in the area.

Sutton's victory also continues a tradition of conservative Democrats representing the area: He was elected to replace Simcha Felder, who often supported Republicans in the Senate and even caucused with them for a while, despite winning office on the Democratic line.

Felder, however, came back into the fold in 2019, after Democrats retook the chamber, and there's little chance that Sutton—who was also endorsed by a broad array of top Democrats—will follow in his caucus-hopping footsteps.

As a result of Sutton's victory, Democrats will retain their 41-22 advantage in the Senate, one seat short of a supermajority. Sutton's win also single-handedly boosted the average overperformance of Democrats in special elections this year by more than 3 points, according to our tracker.

Even though the result is not indicative of broader trends, we don't cherry-pick which elections to include. Instead, we rely on aggregation to diminish the impact of outliers like this one. (Since 2017, there have been an average of about 80 qualifying special elections per cycle; so far this year, just 22 have been held.)

P.S. The next-largest overperformance since Trump first won office came in February 2018, when Kentucky Democrat Linda Belcher flipped a state House seat she'd previously held and beat the top of the ticket by 86 points. However, she lost reelection that fall by a 59-41 margin.

Erie County, PA Executive (D)

Businesswoman Christina Vogel beat Perry Wood, who runs the local Gaming Revenue Authority, 52-48 in the Democratic primary ahead of what will be a competitive general election to lead Erie County. Vogel will go up against Republican County Executive Brenton Davis in a northwestern Pennsylvania county that voted for Donald Trump by a tight 50-49 margin last year after supporting Joe Biden by that same spread in 2020.

Lehigh County, PA Executive (R)

Former Allentown City Council President Roger MacLean outpaced former Allentown School Board Director Mike Welsh 52-48 in a Republican primary where neither candidate spent much money. MacLean will face state Rep. Josh Siegel, who had the Democratic side to himself and has stockpiled a large war chest for the general election.

The winner will replace Democratic Executive Phil Armstrong, a Democrat who is termed out. Kamala Harris carried Lehigh County 51-48, a decline from Biden's 53-45 win.

Northampton County, PA Executive (D)

County Controller Tara Zrinski defeated former election official Amy Cozze 57-43 to win the Democratic nomination for executive of Northampton County, which is located next to Lehigh. County Council member Tom Giovanni had the Republican primary to himself.

This post is open because Democratic incumbent Lamont McClure decided to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie rather than seek reelection this year, and both parties will work hard to win the race to replace him. Northampton County supported Trump 50-48 four years after voting for Biden 50-49.

Pittsburgh, PA Mayor (D)

Allegheny County Controller Corey O'Connor defeated Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey 53-47 in the Democratic primary. O'Connor, whose father was elected mayor in 2005 but died the following year, is now on a glide path to win the general election in a city that last elected a Republican leader in 1929.

Gainey's 2021 election marked the start of a strong streak for progressives in local elections, while O'Connor enjoyed closer ties to the local party establishment. The challenger, though, downplayed any ideological differences and argued that Gainey failed to manage the city's finances and police force effectively.

O'Connor, who received financial support from major Republican donors, enjoyed a huge cash advantage throughout the race. Gainey sought to portray O'Connor as an ally of conservatives and special interests, but it wasn't enough.

Philadelphia, PA District Attorney (D)

Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner fended off former Judge Patrick Dugan 64-36 to win renomination for a third term. The Associated Press estimates that 83% of the vote is tabulated as of Wednesday morning, so this margin may shift even though the outcome is not in doubt.

Krasner, who is one of the most prominent criminal justice reformers in the country, should have no trouble in the general election in this heavily Democratic city.

Governors

FL-Gov

Prosecutors in Leon County said Tuesday they were investigating alleged criminal activities involving Hope Florida, the high-profile charity founded by first lady Casey DeSantis. DeSantis is a potential Republican candidate to succeed her husband, termed-out Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The public learned last month that the DeSantis administration had directed $10 million from a Medicaid settlement to the group, but the money was not used to fulfill Hope Florida's aim of helping people get off government assistance. The funds instead quickly went to political organizations that sought to defeat last year's unsuccessful ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana.

State Attorney Jack Campbell, whose jurisdiction includes the state capital of Tallahassee, said last month that he wasn't currently investigating the matter, but things have since changed. A Campbell staffer responded to a document request from the Miami Herald and Tampa Bay Times by saying the information couldn't be shared because it was "part of an open, on-going investigation."

GA-Gov

Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms announced Tuesday that she would seek the Democratic nomination in next year's race for Georgia's open governorship. Bottoms would be the first woman or African American elected to lead the Peach State, as well as its first Democratic governor in more than two decades.

Bottoms rose to prominence in 2017 when she won a tight race to become mayor of Atlanta, the state's capital and largest city. Three years later, she earned national attention during the protests that swept the nation following George Floyd's murder. Bottoms responded to the destruction of property by saying, "We are all angry. … But what are you changing by tearing up a city?"

The mayor's status as one of the most high-profile Democrats in an emerging swing state only intensified chatter about her future that year, and Joe Biden reportedly even considered selecting her as his running mate. Bottoms' team said after Biden's election that he'd offered her an unnamed cabinet post, but that she'd declined it to focus on her job.

The mayor, however, stunned just about everyone in 2021 when she announced that she wouldn't seek a second term. Bottoms said that there was no single reason behind her decision but noted the many challenges she dealt with in office, including the city's rising homicide rate, the COVID pandemic, protests for racial justice, and a 2018 cyberattack on city government.

Bottoms went on to become a CNN commentator before joining the Biden administration as a senior advisor. The former mayor launched her campaign by telling the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "Am I proud of my service in the White House? I certainly am. But I'm going to run on my record and how I can deliver for the people of Georgia."

Bottoms joins state Sen. Jason Esteves, who launched his campaign last month, in a Democratic primary that could include several other contenders. On the Republican side, Attorney General Chris Carr is the only candidate so far in the race to replace termed-out Gov. Brian Kemp, though political observers expect Lt. Gov. Burt Jones to join him.

ME-Gov

Businessman David Jones, who owns what the Bangor Daily News describes as a "prominent real estate firm," announced Tuesday that he was entering the Republican primary for governor of Maine.

Jones previously sought the same office as an independent in 2006, but he dropped out well before the general election. He went on to found a pro-Trump group in 2016 and has raised money for GOP candidates.

The only other notable Republican in the race is Bobby Charles, an attorney and frequent Fox News guest. Several other conservatives are also eyeing the race to replace Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat who cannot seek a third term.

NJ-Gov, NJ-10

The Department of Justice said it was dropping trespassing charges against Newark Mayor Ras Baraka on Monday evening, but it charged another New Jersey Democrat, Rep. LaMonica McIver, with assault following a confrontation earlier this month at an immigration detention center in Newark.

McIver, who represents the safely blue 10th District, blasted the Justice Department's actions in a statement, saying, "The charges against me are purely political—they mischaracterize and distort my actions, and are meant to criminalize and deter legislative oversight."

Baraka, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for governor in next month's primaries, also released a statement, saying, "I stand with LaMonica, and I fully expect her to be vindicated."

House

AZ-01

Businessman Rick McCartney, who runs a publishing company based in Phoenix called InMedia, joined the busy Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. David Schweikert on Tuesday.

McCartney has not run for office before, but the Arizona Republic's Laura Gersony describes him as active in local civic causes and says he "has relationships with well-connected political donors and philanthropists." She also adds that McCartney was "hesitant to spell out a political vision of his own" in discussing his launch and "declined to describe where he falls within the Democratic Party."

Already running for Arizona's swingy 1st Congressional District are former state Rep. Amish Shah, former TV anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, and businessman Jonathan Treble. According to calculations from The Downballot, Donald Trump carried the district 51-48.

CA-22

Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains has yet to publicly say whether she's considering a bid for California's 22nd District, but she's now the star of a union-supported ad exhorting Republican Rep. David Valadao to oppose the GOP's plans for massive cuts to Medicaid.

The ad campaign, which is chiefly funded by the local branch of the SEIU and is backed by a reported six-figure buy, prompted one local political consultant to conclude of Bains, "She's running for Congress." A spokesperson for Bains, who is also a physician, did not directly answer a question from Politico about her intentions.

One Democrat, local school board trustee Randy Villegas, is already in the race, but the DCCC is reportedly trying to recruit Bains to run. Donald Trump carried this district, which is located in California's heavily agricultural Central Valley, by a 52-46 margin last year.

CO-08

Two notable candidates eyeing bids for Colorado's 8th Congressional District, state Treasurer Dave Young and former teachers union president Amia Baca-Oehlert, are "expected to join the Democratic primary in the upcoming weeks," reports the Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul. Marine veteran Evan Munsing is also "rumored to be mulling a bid," adds Paul.

Three current or former elected officials are already seeking the right to take on first-term Republican Rep. Gabe Evans in this suburban Denver district that went for Donald Trump 50-48 last year.

ME-02, ME-Sen, ME-Gov

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden announced Tuesday that he'd seek reelection to Maine's 2nd Congressional District rather than run for Senate or governor—a decision that could have a significant impact on all three contests.

Golden's move is unwelcome news for Republicans looking to flip his northern Maine constituency, which, according to calculations by The Downballot, is the most conservative seat held by a House Democrat. Donald Trump's 54-44 victory here, though, still gives the GOP reason to target the 2nd District.

Former Gov. Paul LePage announced earlier this month that he'd run against Golden, and so far, he's deterred any major intra-party competition. Former state Rep. Austin Theriault, who narrowly lost to Golden last year, said Monday evening that he was endorsing LePage rather than pursuing a rematch.

Golden, however, could have his own primary to worry about. State Auditor Matt Dunlap said last week he was interested in running and wouldn't let the incumbent's plans impact his.

Dunlap, who previously served as Maine's secretary of state, told the Bangor Daily News he was unhappy with Golden for supporting a Republican bill to require voters to prove their citizenship before casting a ballot. Dunlap said that Golden "kept doubling down" in defense of his position in a text conversation between the two men.

"I sort of thought this is why people are mad at him," Dunlap told the paper. "He doesn't explain. He lectures. That's not a great place to be as a public servant."

While some Democrats had been watching to see whether Golden might take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins, the congressman never seemed likely to run against the incumbent, whom he once worked for.

Golden's decision leaves former congressional staffer Jordan Wood as the only notable Democrat currently running for the Senate. Several others, however, are in the mix, including term-limited Gov. Janet Mills, who hasn't ruled out the idea.

Golden had appeared likely to run to succeed Mills, though he never took any obvious steps toward preparing a campaign. Unlike in the Senate contest, though, several Democrats have already joined the primary in the race for governor.

WI-01

Iron worker Randy Bryce, who lost a bid for Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District in 2018, has kicked off a bid for a rematch with the man who beat him in that race, Republican Rep. Bryan Steil.

Bryce launched his first campaign in 2017, when House Speaker Paul Ryan still represented the 1st District, based in the southeastern corner of the state. Thanks to Ryan's deep unpopularity with progressives due to his efforts to repeal Obamacare, Bryce—a blue-collar figure nicknamed "Iron Stache"—quickly raised huge sums.

Less than a year later, though, the contest was upended when, with the GOP's grip on the House looking shaky, Ryan unexpectedly announced he would not seek reelection. Steil, a politically connected attorney, won the primary to succeed the speaker but was massively outraised by Bryce, $8.6 million to $2.3 million.

However, lacking Ryan's baggage, Steil won by a comfortable 55-42 margin even as Republicans lost control of the chamber that same night.

This time around, Bryce is edging away from some of the more left-leaning stances he took during his previous run, notes the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Laurence Andrea, including his support for Medicare for All and his calls to abolish ICE. Unlike in 2018, though, Bryce notes that Steil now has a voting record to defend.

While Bryce is the first major Democrat to enter the race, he might not be the last, particularly because two pending legal challenges to Wisconsin's congressional map could result in the 1st District becoming bluer in a potential redraw. Under the current lines, which largely reflect a GOP gerrymander, Donald Trump won the district 52-47.

Other Races

TX-LG

State Rep. Vikki Goodwin, who'd been mulling a bid for Texas' powerful lieutenant governorship for years, became the first Democrat to enter the race when she launched her campaign on Tuesday. She'll be aiming to take on Republican incumbent Dan Patrick, who announced he'd seek reelection to a fourth term last month and has a war chest of $33 million.

In our last Digest, we incorrectly stated that former Sen. Simcha Felder remained a member of the Republican caucus in the New York State Senate after the 2018 election. Felder did not caucus with either party following the election but was later readmitted to the Democratic caucus.