In light of the GA Senate news, I wanted to go through and look at the state of affairs in the Senate for 2026. While it will be tightly contested, Democratic control of the Senate is emerging as more and more of an actual possibility. With Kemp out, GA is looking more and more like a hold, especially if MTG is the nominee. If she is the…
In light of the GA Senate news, I wanted to go through and look at the state of affairs in the Senate for 2026. While it will be tightly contested, Democratic control of the Senate is emerging as more and more of an actual possibility. With Kemp out, GA is looking more and more like a hold, especially if MTG is the nominee. If she is the nominee, I don't think it's Lean D, I think it's an easy D hold.
Heading over to TX, it seems very likely that John Cornyn, who is a Senate institution, is not gonna be the nominee. The base is done with him regardless of whether they go with Paxton, Jackson, or Hunt. In the unlikely chance he is the nominee, he will be an extremely damaged one. Now more than ever, I really see TX as a Dem pick up. Not due to Democratic strength per se, but due to the context of the race on the GOP side of things. A win is a win, though. (+1)
NC will be close, but Thillis reminds me of Cornyn in many ways. While he is not in as much danger of losing his nomination, he is still bruised with the GOP base, and I can easily see many skipping his race and holding back their votes over his impeachment vote. With how close NC races are, any part of your base withholding their votes puts you in danger. I consider his seat a lean pickup, but it becomes a likely/safe pick up imo if Gov. Cooper is the nominee. (+2)
The next race that I think goes to the Dem is Ohio. Sen. Brown only lost by 3.6%. With the types of Democratic over-performances we are seeing, we are due for another 2018 blue wave that will more than make up for that margin. Husted's heart is not in the Senate either (this was a consolation prize for him), so from a psychological standpoint, he is not gonna mount the same type of intense campaign that a Senate giant like Brown will. Trump's not on the ballot either this time around, so there won't be that down-ballot coattail advantage to help Husted like it helped now Senator Moreno. (+3)
Maine, Maine, Maine. This one is a must for Democratic control of the Senate, and yet to me, it is the most uncertain. Susan Collins is likely running for reelection. If she does, she will be the nominee, and unless we match her with a high-quality, battle-tested Democratic nominee, she will keep the seat. I am no fan of her, but she has clearly built a brand that people buy into. The way to break that is to put up someone with an equally strong brand. A state house speaker, local state legislator, mayor, etc -- are not gonna work. That's the hard truth. We need someone with a very strong personality, image, and brand that can at least match Collins. For me, that is either Governor Mills or Rep. Jared Golden. Because of the age factor, I'd rather it be Golden. If he is the nominee, I think this race finally goes Dem. (+4)
I wanted to give an honorable mention and urge everyone to take a look at Iowa. Special election after special election, Iowa is giving Democrats the largest swings of the entire nation. This is happening everywhere from the state's reddest districts to the bluest ones. While a federal election is different than a low affairs legislative special election, the trends at the least show that there is a willingness within the electorate to support Democrats. If Democrats can get a good nominee that can generate some excitement for the base, I think this is one where a wave can easily carry that nominee across the finish line, even against a good GOP nominee. Same goes for Iowa's gubernatorial race.
Some of you are probably beginning to wonder about Florida. I am unfortunately not seeing the right context materialize there for a flip. Moody is beatable, but I don't see the urgency, resources, and recruitment happening there that I see in these other states. It is disappointing to be honest, but understandable given how far the state has skewed to the right. The good thing is that Florida is not needed, but it would've been nice icing on the cake.
I'm in NC and there is WAY more resistance and calling out Tillis on his cowardly BS now than there was back in 2020. I pray Gov Cooper decides to run against him; it will be a relatively easy D pickup if that's the case.
As for Maine, Gov Mills is more battle tested than Jared Golden (I don't see him running against his former boss Collins) -- and I think she could beat Susan. Especially in a D-favorable midterm cycle.
Mills is the preference for me from an ideological standpoint too; however, I don't see her running due to the age factor. She'd be a freshman Senator at 77/78 -- that is way too old even by Senate standards. But regardless, I hope that either she or Golden go for it, because otherwise, I think the seat is unfortunately a very likely GOP hold.
Worth noting: Former governor Paul LePage has just announced that he’s challenging Jared Golden for ME-02. LePage has proudly described himself as "Trump before Trump"; it’s clear he was itching for an appointment in the former Trump Administration. Paul LePage is 76 years old (but seems far older from the neck up).
Imho, Janet Mills could and should run against Collins despite her age. Mills is the only potential candidate I see with a good chance to unseat the "chronically concerned" Susan Collin. It’s imperative that we retake the Senate – not least to stop further judicial appointments by Trump. Janet Mills can serve one term and then leave an open seat for a younger successor.
Collins keeps surprising us, in election after election, there is no denying that.
Ok, I’ll make an effort to say one thing positive about her: Susan Collins is a hard-working senator. She rarely – if ever – misses a Senate vote. Imho, Democrats should try to replicate that, the latest example being Senator Whitehouse missing a key vote that enabled Republicans to table the bill.
No, I think Sheldon Whitehouse is a good man. Check out his series of lectures on how dark money, through the Federalist Society, Judicial watch and other right-wing organization, captured the Supreme Court and much of the rest of our judiciary.
Imho, Senator Whitehouse would have been far better than Durbin as chairman / ranking member on the Senate Judiciary. I hope he soon replaces Durbin in that role.
Yep, he was a marvelous Senator in the former country known as the United States of America. We have so little room for error nowadays, as we try to salvage a democracy, and missing out on opportunities is painful.
My impression is that, because of comity, much of the Senate voting schedule is by agreement between the Majority and Minority Leaders. Surely Chuck Schumer knew when Whitehouse would be traveling.
I'm not fully in touch with the hold that Collins allegedly has over Maine voters but I think her air of infallibility is likely overstated. If the partisan tide is strong enough, she's not gonna be able to withstand it. I don't see her being a forever outlier to the laws of political gravity any more than Collin Peterson, Jon Tester, or Sherrod Brown were. Nor do I think it'll take a rock star Democratic challenger to take her down.
Bottom line: any scenario where the Democrats win back or tie the Senate in 2026 will include picking up the seat in Maine. There's no scenario where they pick up Iowa, Alaska, or Texas and don't get Maine. Either the tide is strong enough to wash away Collins or the tide falls far short.
It's important to remember that Collins won her last race with just 51% of the vote. The Democrat got 42%, and the remainder was split across two independents. Since Collins cracked 50%, the instant-runoff calculation was never completed, so we don't actually know how close it truly would have been from a D vs. R standpoint if she'd gotten slightly fewer votes. This comes after winning her three prior elections with 58-68% of the vote. I'm not getting my hopes up, but her luck may have finally run out, especially as the alleged moderates are asked to further enable an extremist authoritarian government with every vote.
We must remember that Maine as a state is not a Blue juggernaut. The Maine House of Reps sits 76 D - 73 R. The Maine Senate is 20 D - 15 R. This is no Massachusetts.
Not really. Take New Hampshire for example. NH votes Democrat solidly at the Presidential level and yet is dominated by the GOP at the state level. They essentially hold ALL levers of government and the Supreme Court at the state level. They are one federal race away from being a threat to Democrats -- Chris Sununu running for the Senate would've made that seat automatically a toss up, if not lean R. So no, a state voting Blue for President by a less than double digit margin doesn't guarantee that it's Senators are gonna be Democrats. Especially when it has no issues electing GOPers to important offices while also voting for said Democratic presidential nominee.
New Hampshire is unique and different than Maine, it's more rural and has a very libertarian and liberal-conservative culture.
Parsing the old, white, educated, libertarian, anti-tax, pro-choice politics of New Hampshire. https://archive.ph/NdYIt
"It is an older, mostly white state that’s very rural, but you have all these college-educated voters who are irreligious, and [these factors] are in conflict with themselves".
Maine in contrast has voted for Democrats since Bill Clinton at the federal level and has had a Democratic trifectas a lot of times.
Remember, if Gore won New Hampshire he wouldn't have needed Florida.
I think an outsider could win but I hope those two decide quickly so said person can start putting together a campaign that is not frozen by them. Collins limped across the line in 20 with 51% of the vote she is not some unbeatable juggernaut.
The polling at this point in the 20 cycle actually mostly had Collins ahead by a comfortable amount. I can see her winning again by bringing home enough Rs and keeping enough moderates to get another low fifties win but the commentary here makes it seem like 71% of voters right of the bat think she deserves to be reelected.
Agreed. An outsider could win. Either the laws of political gravity catch up to Collins in a toxic electoral environment or else the electoral environment simply wasn't toxic enough.
It's not a very likely GOP hold, polls show that only a very small fraction of Harris voters support her. She has a bad approval rating too. She will be the next Jon Tester imo. Maine is a blue state which will vote in a potential blue wave, let's act like it.
Given you're in NC, what are your thoughts on Cooper vs. Nickel? Or what are the dynamics there? Would Wiley Nickel be a strong nominee if Cooper passes on the race?
Nickel has said that if Cooper were to enter the race, he would throw his support behind him.
Cooper, were he to run against Tillis, would garner support from partisan Dems, independents, and some squishy R voters. He's never lost a statewide race since winning AG and then governor's seat.
Nickel would benefit from a D-favorable midterm but he has not run a statewide election before. Nickel v. Tillis would be much narrower.
He was never SoS. He served four terms as AG. It should be noted that he barely won the 2016 governor race (by 0.2%) against the controversial incumbent McCrory.
An NC senate race will never be an easy pickup. Sure, with Cooper Dems might have a slight edge but it would almost certainly be a close and hard fought fight.
Anderson Clayton has done an amazing job revitalizing the state Democratic Party since she was elected in 2023. I think if Cooper entered the race, he would win by roughly the same margin Jeff Jackson did for AG last year.
People forget that Tillis won by the skin of his teeth in both R-favorable years (2014 midterms and 2020 presidential). In a D-favorable midterm with a candidate like Cooper, he's toast. With Wiley Nickel, it's a bit iffier.
That's a meaty post, but I think you're way too optimistic. Let's at least wait to see who the candidates are in TX and look at a few polls (however problematic polling is) before concluding that's a likely D pickup.
The optimistic case: Trump is underwater in Texas in a statewide poll and even in another. Nationally, he is polling horribly among Independents, Latinos and young voters incl Gen Z. Colin Allred is leading Paxton by more than 15 points in one recent poll by a Republican firm and a generic Democratic was even with him in an older one. Cornyn is done and trailing bigly in the primary polls.
Colin Allred also has a positive statewide approval rating, performed 5 points better than Kamala and Texas' cities and minorities have only grown since 2018. There are a lot of other Dems currently looking to duke it out in the Senate primary, another good sign.
James Talarico, a progressive firebrand whose rhetoric reminds me of Beshear might run against Abbott for Governor. Abbott's aggressive school voucher program is totally underwater is polls and Talarico has been highlighting the out of state and in state evangelical Oligarchs funding him.
Texas has shifted left every election except 2024 which was arguably a gut punch for us but trends take atleast two elections to solidify. It was the second closest loss in 2020.
Texas becoming a swing state would change our politics for a generation, just say it: Republicans agree to abolish the electoral college; PR, DC get statehood and much more.
I don't think we can assume Democrats would pass our dream list the next time they have a trifecta. Look at what they didn't do the last couple of times. Good analysis of Texas, though.
Brown is not running for Senate -- it's Governor or nothing (he'd have to run again in 2 years for the full term and 3 campaigns in a right-leaning state in 4 years just won't happen). If Tim Ryan hadn't run already I'd say he would've been our best bet. I think the one's off the table just because our bench is non-existent. Maybe if Greg Landsman changes his mind because his seat gets nuked in redistricting.
Yes -- ME is the main frustruation point. You can't beat somebody with nobodoy, and I hope the lack of strong challenger doesn't deter Collins from retiring when a strong challenger otherwise might. Word of caution: I feel like Jared Golden would be Sinema and Manchin rolled into one annoying body as a Senator. But.. you take what you can get.
Given King has been a reliable vote for and has caucused with Democrats in the Senate ever since he was originally elected, there’s no energy to unseat him.
All of King’s Democratic challengers have barely been able to mount a credible campaign.
Keep in mind that it was for a long time Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins in the Senate. Both first took office in the mid 90’s and served together for 15 years.
When Snowe retired in 2012, Angus King running for the Senate made it more difficult for Democrats as he was a popular Governor prior to that. If Democrats have to challenge an incumbent GOP Senator or a popular politician like King running as an Independent, the task of winning a Senate seat is made much harder.
Yes, an open Senate seat makes it much easier for Democrats to win.
If Angus King didn’t run for the Senate back in 2012, the Senate race for Democrats would have likely been much easier for them. 2012 was a high turnout election as opposed to 2010 and 2014.
To nuke Landsman’s seat in redistricting you’d need to make it much more ridiculous looking than it already is. It would make an even bigger mockery of the “independent” redistricting commission that “banned gerrymandering” that Republicans defended last year.
It’s not like Kaptur’s seat where Republicans can just attach blood red counties to the West to Lucas county.
I'm more inclined to believe Golden would be Kirsten Gillibrand if elected to the Senate, giving up the pretense of being a conservadem when no longer have to split hairs to win in a tough rural district.
How are we going to win over socially conservative rural white voters and WWC voters in Iowa and Kansas? Urbanised states with diverse populations should be our target with the kind of polling Trump currently has with all minority groups. The largest shifts in Trump's approval have been seen in non white voters.
Gubernatorial elections are much more localised compared to Senatorial ones.
Dan Osborn though is a formidable candidate in Nebraska who fell short by just 6.5 points last year.
Texas and Florida were the closest states that we lost in both 2018 and 2020. Florida would be tougher now as the state party there is in shambles without a deep bench. Texas' Senate election in contrast has seen a lot of interest from many Democratic candidates.
Tariff loving "Progressive Conservative" ex-Collins staffer Golden will be a horrible candidate who's 100 percent going to be a Sinema. We need a unabashed Liberal against Collins to turnout the base and be a consistent vote representing a blue state in the Senate.
Probably worth considering primarying Golden if he runs for reelection instead. If the seat flips-nothing changes, Golden is already essentially a Republican.
Golden is a pain in the ass but he's undeniably better than any republican in congress this century. He's generally there when we really need his vote. The difficulty with him is damaging our messaging more than anything.
I'll continue to be annoyed with him but I'd rather have him than a republican any day of the week. Even while annoying I'm glad we have him.
If the only thing he ever does for us is provide a vote for a dem speaker, he will be better than a republican.
Disagree-Golden already is a Republican (just not in Party ID), and if he's not, he's no better than one-I'd rather lose the seat than have him in the house.
He voted for the IRA, which zero republicans in the house and senate did. He supports abortion rights. He's in favor of gun control now, even if he wasn't earlier. He voted for Jeffries to be speaker.
I'm not going to pretend this is some high bar to clear. It isn't. He's the biggest pain in the ass in our congressional caucus and he routinely finds ways to piss us off. He makes tons of bad votes.
But he is clearly and unambiguously to the left of every elected republican in congress right now. He is not a republican. In a country with more than two functioning political parties he wouldn't be a democrat either, and would likely align with a center-right or centrist party. That isn't what the US has though and he is easily better than every republican in congress.
Put another way: What republican member of the house do you think is no worse than him? If he is a de facto republican then there should be a republican with a similar voting record out there. What republican voted for the IRA and to make Jeffries speaker?
I agree with this comment and any Democrats is useful in a Republicans seat than an actual Republican but here's his phony populism on rejecting Build Back Better:
Also, he co-sponsored statehood for DC, opposes efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and has a good pro-union record (sponsored a bill strengthening union organizing).
Far from being a Republican but I get your sentiment.
I would primary Josh Gottheimer, not Jared Golden.
It’s not an improbable thing that Gottheimer will stick around if he loses the gubernatorial primary. He represents a waspy, extremely wealthy part of NJ and he’ll still want to be relevant in a district which he’s had no problem holding and winning re-election in.
I’m still amazed that Gottheimer pulled off one of the few upset House wins in 2016 by unseating Scott Garrett, who was always notoriously difficult for Democrats to beat in previous elections.
This is not a good analysis. Dems are higher propensity voters and are going to be fired up to vote next year no matter who the nominee is. Golden would have a great chance to beat Collins, but I doubt he'd run against her, so it's a moot point most likely.
Even if he wins, we simply don't need a Manchinema 2.0 when you could run any other normal Democrat. Politicians like him make sense representing a R leaning district in the House but not even a swing state in the Senate. Republicans hate any guy to the left of Reagan, why do we need someone to the right of Sinema? We have had enough of such Liebermans and Manchins already.
Oh, I agree. I think we can beat her with a standard Dem if this year turns out the way we think it's going to. I was just pointing out that saying he's not a good statewide candidate is wrong.
I don't think so. Remember that Maine as a state is not a Blue juggernaut. The Maine House of Reps sits 76 D - 73 R. The Maine Senate is 20 D - 15 R. It had a Republican Governor for almost the entirety of Obama's Presidency. This is no Massachusetts.
+9D in 2020 is definitely a Blue state. By this train of thought, even Minnesota which has a deadlocked house is not a Blue state. State legislative elections have different dynamics to national ones.
Here's how I might put the potentially competitive races, in my order. I'm assuming that this will be a bad cycle for the GOP, probably similar to 2018. Of course many of these would change once we know the candidates.
Minnesota, New Hampshire: likely D and only because they're open. Those states are generically lean D.
Michigan: lean D. Generically, it's tilt D.
Georgia: lean D. It would have been a tossup with Kemp, but now it's Ossoff's race to win. If he plays his cards right he should beat anyone by at least a few points.
Maine: tilt D. Collins is unpopular, but people are still used to voting for her. This is still a Harris +7 state in what is shaping up as a terrible cycle for the GOP. Her 2020 margin would have been a lot closer if the second place votes had been counted, and I think her luck is likely to run out this year if Dems put up a strong candidate who runs a good race.
North Carolina: tossup to tilt D. Maybe tilt D if Cooper gets in. Tillis won't be an easy out, but I'd rather be us than them this cycle.
Ohio: tilt R. The GOP won by 3.6 (granted, against Brown) in 2024 and 6.1 in 2022, both of which were terrible cycles for Dems. Husted is an appointed incumbent. This will be in play.
Texas: lean R. Cornyn wouldn't be *that* safe, he won by just 9.6 in 2020. If he loses the primary, this one is definitely in play. Wide range of possibilities here depending on the extent to which Latinos snap back against Trump.
Iowa: lean R. Ernst is a pretty good fit for the state. She ran behind Trump in 2020, but her race was much more contested. The GOP has gotten buried in recent specials in Iowa. Ernst should win, but probably by less than in 2020. If for whatever reason she isn't the nominee, this could go either way.
Florida: lean R but only because it has an appointed incumbent. Dems nearly won with an incumbent in 2018, but the state has moved far to the right since then and demographic creep there is still very unfavorable.
Alaska: lean R to likely R. Unlike Ernst, Sullivan won easily in 2020. Peltola might give him a hard time if she gets in.
No way NC is likely D no matter who the nominees are. Cooper might make that race a tossup. TX is lean R for now, I suppose it could edge into tossup territory but it's hard to see that. These are waaaaay too optimistic, even for what I think will likely be a Dem wave year.
In light of the GA Senate news, I wanted to go through and look at the state of affairs in the Senate for 2026. While it will be tightly contested, Democratic control of the Senate is emerging as more and more of an actual possibility. With Kemp out, GA is looking more and more like a hold, especially if MTG is the nominee. If she is the nominee, I don't think it's Lean D, I think it's an easy D hold.
Heading over to TX, it seems very likely that John Cornyn, who is a Senate institution, is not gonna be the nominee. The base is done with him regardless of whether they go with Paxton, Jackson, or Hunt. In the unlikely chance he is the nominee, he will be an extremely damaged one. Now more than ever, I really see TX as a Dem pick up. Not due to Democratic strength per se, but due to the context of the race on the GOP side of things. A win is a win, though. (+1)
NC will be close, but Thillis reminds me of Cornyn in many ways. While he is not in as much danger of losing his nomination, he is still bruised with the GOP base, and I can easily see many skipping his race and holding back their votes over his impeachment vote. With how close NC races are, any part of your base withholding their votes puts you in danger. I consider his seat a lean pickup, but it becomes a likely/safe pick up imo if Gov. Cooper is the nominee. (+2)
The next race that I think goes to the Dem is Ohio. Sen. Brown only lost by 3.6%. With the types of Democratic over-performances we are seeing, we are due for another 2018 blue wave that will more than make up for that margin. Husted's heart is not in the Senate either (this was a consolation prize for him), so from a psychological standpoint, he is not gonna mount the same type of intense campaign that a Senate giant like Brown will. Trump's not on the ballot either this time around, so there won't be that down-ballot coattail advantage to help Husted like it helped now Senator Moreno. (+3)
Maine, Maine, Maine. This one is a must for Democratic control of the Senate, and yet to me, it is the most uncertain. Susan Collins is likely running for reelection. If she does, she will be the nominee, and unless we match her with a high-quality, battle-tested Democratic nominee, she will keep the seat. I am no fan of her, but she has clearly built a brand that people buy into. The way to break that is to put up someone with an equally strong brand. A state house speaker, local state legislator, mayor, etc -- are not gonna work. That's the hard truth. We need someone with a very strong personality, image, and brand that can at least match Collins. For me, that is either Governor Mills or Rep. Jared Golden. Because of the age factor, I'd rather it be Golden. If he is the nominee, I think this race finally goes Dem. (+4)
I wanted to give an honorable mention and urge everyone to take a look at Iowa. Special election after special election, Iowa is giving Democrats the largest swings of the entire nation. This is happening everywhere from the state's reddest districts to the bluest ones. While a federal election is different than a low affairs legislative special election, the trends at the least show that there is a willingness within the electorate to support Democrats. If Democrats can get a good nominee that can generate some excitement for the base, I think this is one where a wave can easily carry that nominee across the finish line, even against a good GOP nominee. Same goes for Iowa's gubernatorial race.
Some of you are probably beginning to wonder about Florida. I am unfortunately not seeing the right context materialize there for a flip. Moody is beatable, but I don't see the urgency, resources, and recruitment happening there that I see in these other states. It is disappointing to be honest, but understandable given how far the state has skewed to the right. The good thing is that Florida is not needed, but it would've been nice icing on the cake.
I'm in NC and there is WAY more resistance and calling out Tillis on his cowardly BS now than there was back in 2020. I pray Gov Cooper decides to run against him; it will be a relatively easy D pickup if that's the case.
As for Maine, Gov Mills is more battle tested than Jared Golden (I don't see him running against his former boss Collins) -- and I think she could beat Susan. Especially in a D-favorable midterm cycle.
Mills is the preference for me from an ideological standpoint too; however, I don't see her running due to the age factor. She'd be a freshman Senator at 77/78 -- that is way too old even by Senate standards. But regardless, I hope that either she or Golden go for it, because otherwise, I think the seat is unfortunately a very likely GOP hold.
Worth noting: Former governor Paul LePage has just announced that he’s challenging Jared Golden for ME-02. LePage has proudly described himself as "Trump before Trump"; it’s clear he was itching for an appointment in the former Trump Administration. Paul LePage is 76 years old (but seems far older from the neck up).
Imho, Janet Mills could and should run against Collins despite her age. Mills is the only potential candidate I see with a good chance to unseat the "chronically concerned" Susan Collin. It’s imperative that we retake the Senate – not least to stop further judicial appointments by Trump. Janet Mills can serve one term and then leave an open seat for a younger successor.
I would bet on Collins winning reelection until she dies or retires, regardless of opinion polling. We shall see.
Collins keeps surprising us, in election after election, there is no denying that.
Ok, I’ll make an effort to say one thing positive about her: Susan Collins is a hard-working senator. She rarely – if ever – misses a Senate vote. Imho, Democrats should try to replicate that, the latest example being Senator Whitehouse missing a key vote that enabled Republicans to table the bill.
Why did he miss that vote?
He was traveling, returning from a visit to South Korea. I blame Schumer for not doing more to delay this vote.
Sheldon certainly doesn't seem like he's taking any responsibility. This comes after he voted to confirm numerous Trump nominees. Bye Sheldon.
No, I think Sheldon Whitehouse is a good man. Check out his series of lectures on how dark money, through the Federalist Society, Judicial watch and other right-wing organization, captured the Supreme Court and much of the rest of our judiciary.
Imho, Senator Whitehouse would have been far better than Durbin as chairman / ranking member on the Senate Judiciary. I hope he soon replaces Durbin in that role.
Yep, he was a marvelous Senator in the former country known as the United States of America. We have so little room for error nowadays, as we try to salvage a democracy, and missing out on opportunities is painful.
What kinds of dilatory moves could he have pulled?
My impression is that, because of comity, much of the Senate voting schedule is by agreement between the Majority and Minority Leaders. Surely Chuck Schumer knew when Whitehouse would be traveling.
That said, I’m not an expert on Senate rules,
Unfortunately I fear you may be right. Everyone assumed she was gone in 2020 but ended up winning even as Biden won Maine by near double digits.
I'm not fully in touch with the hold that Collins allegedly has over Maine voters but I think her air of infallibility is likely overstated. If the partisan tide is strong enough, she's not gonna be able to withstand it. I don't see her being a forever outlier to the laws of political gravity any more than Collin Peterson, Jon Tester, or Sherrod Brown were. Nor do I think it'll take a rock star Democratic challenger to take her down.
Bottom line: any scenario where the Democrats win back or tie the Senate in 2026 will include picking up the seat in Maine. There's no scenario where they pick up Iowa, Alaska, or Texas and don't get Maine. Either the tide is strong enough to wash away Collins or the tide falls far short.
It's important to remember that Collins won her last race with just 51% of the vote. The Democrat got 42%, and the remainder was split across two independents. Since Collins cracked 50%, the instant-runoff calculation was never completed, so we don't actually know how close it truly would have been from a D vs. R standpoint if she'd gotten slightly fewer votes. This comes after winning her three prior elections with 58-68% of the vote. I'm not getting my hopes up, but her luck may have finally run out, especially as the alleged moderates are asked to further enable an extremist authoritarian government with every vote.
Agree with this analysis. She's a force but is definitely beatable, particularly in a D wave year.
We must remember that Maine as a state is not a Blue juggernaut. The Maine House of Reps sits 76 D - 73 R. The Maine Senate is 20 D - 15 R. This is no Massachusetts.
+9D in 2020 sounds like a solid Blue state. State legislature elections don't have national dynamics and state RPs in New England are not MAGA.
Not really. Take New Hampshire for example. NH votes Democrat solidly at the Presidential level and yet is dominated by the GOP at the state level. They essentially hold ALL levers of government and the Supreme Court at the state level. They are one federal race away from being a threat to Democrats -- Chris Sununu running for the Senate would've made that seat automatically a toss up, if not lean R. So no, a state voting Blue for President by a less than double digit margin doesn't guarantee that it's Senators are gonna be Democrats. Especially when it has no issues electing GOPers to important offices while also voting for said Democratic presidential nominee.
New Hampshire is unique and different than Maine, it's more rural and has a very libertarian and liberal-conservative culture.
Parsing the old, white, educated, libertarian, anti-tax, pro-choice politics of New Hampshire. https://archive.ph/NdYIt
"It is an older, mostly white state that’s very rural, but you have all these college-educated voters who are irreligious, and [these factors] are in conflict with themselves".
Maine in contrast has voted for Democrats since Bill Clinton at the federal level and has had a Democratic trifectas a lot of times.
Remember, if Gore won New Hampshire he wouldn't have needed Florida.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Maine
I had thought Maine was more rural. Are you using Federal figures on percentage of rural vs. urban and suburban?
I would bet on her being "concerned" with what to do for the rest of her time after losing reelection in 2026.
“I was Trump before Trump.”
Not going to help him win the race. Only one person can be Trump and that’s Trump himself.
I think an outsider could win but I hope those two decide quickly so said person can start putting together a campaign that is not frozen by them. Collins limped across the line in 20 with 51% of the vote she is not some unbeatable juggernaut.
"Frustration from both sides is clearly reflected in the poll results released Thursday.
Overall, 21% of Maine residents believe Collins deserves to be reelected, while 71% believe she does not, according to the survey.
Among Democrats, 84% believe she does not deserve another term, while 67% of independents and 57% of Republicans agree."
https://www.pressherald.com/2025/04/24/most-mainers-dont-think-susan-collins-deserves-another-term-survey-says/?uuid=ea30f625-7e77-4a7c-8b4c-b41e82f5ab80&lid=60747
I'm skeptical they're getting the polling right, though, after last time.
The polling at this point in the 20 cycle actually mostly had Collins ahead by a comfortable amount. I can see her winning again by bringing home enough Rs and keeping enough moderates to get another low fifties win but the commentary here makes it seem like 71% of voters right of the bat think she deserves to be reelected.
I'm not claiming that. I'm stating that we should never bet against her being reelected as long as she runs.
Agreed. An outsider could win. Either the laws of political gravity catch up to Collins in a toxic electoral environment or else the electoral environment simply wasn't toxic enough.
It's not a very likely GOP hold, polls show that only a very small fraction of Harris voters support her. She has a bad approval rating too. She will be the next Jon Tester imo. Maine is a blue state which will vote in a potential blue wave, let's act like it.
https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-chances-defeating-susan-collins-maine-according-polls-2064775
But polls seemed to show that last time.
Given you're in NC, what are your thoughts on Cooper vs. Nickel? Or what are the dynamics there? Would Wiley Nickel be a strong nominee if Cooper passes on the race?
Nickel has said that if Cooper were to enter the race, he would throw his support behind him.
Cooper, were he to run against Tillis, would garner support from partisan Dems, independents, and some squishy R voters. He's never lost a statewide race since winning AG and then governor's seat.
Nickel would benefit from a D-favorable midterm but he has not run a statewide election before. Nickel v. Tillis would be much narrower.
When did Cooper run for SOS? It has been held by Marshall for almost 30 years.
:)
Whoops, I totally forgot about Elaine Marshall being SOS. Edited my earlier post.
He was never SoS. He served four terms as AG. It should be noted that he barely won the 2016 governor race (by 0.2%) against the controversial incumbent McCrory.
To be fair, in 2016 Cooper had to deal with Trump winning at the top of the ticket by four points.
If he can beat Tillis even by that .2% margin in 2026, I’ll take it.
An NC senate race will never be an easy pickup. Sure, with Cooper Dems might have a slight edge but it would almost certainly be a close and hard fought fight.
Anderson Clayton has done an amazing job revitalizing the state Democratic Party since she was elected in 2023. I think if Cooper entered the race, he would win by roughly the same margin Jeff Jackson did for AG last year.
People forget that Tillis won by the skin of his teeth in both R-favorable years (2014 midterms and 2020 presidential). In a D-favorable midterm with a candidate like Cooper, he's toast. With Wiley Nickel, it's a bit iffier.
The killing of the EXTREMELY VITAL biotech industry (especially in the Triangle) needs to be wrapped firmly around Tillis' neck.
From a cutoff in Federal funding?
That's a meaty post, but I think you're way too optimistic. Let's at least wait to see who the candidates are in TX and look at a few polls (however problematic polling is) before concluding that's a likely D pickup.
The optimistic case: Trump is underwater in Texas in a statewide poll and even in another. Nationally, he is polling horribly among Independents, Latinos and young voters incl Gen Z. Colin Allred is leading Paxton by more than 15 points in one recent poll by a Republican firm and a generic Democratic was even with him in an older one. Cornyn is done and trailing bigly in the primary polls.
Colin Allred also has a positive statewide approval rating, performed 5 points better than Kamala and Texas' cities and minorities have only grown since 2018. There are a lot of other Dems currently looking to duke it out in the Senate primary, another good sign.
James Talarico, a progressive firebrand whose rhetoric reminds me of Beshear might run against Abbott for Governor. Abbott's aggressive school voucher program is totally underwater is polls and Talarico has been highlighting the out of state and in state evangelical Oligarchs funding him.
https://www.270towin.com/states/texas
Texas has shifted left every election except 2024 which was arguably a gut punch for us but trends take atleast two elections to solidify. It was the second closest loss in 2020.
Texas becoming a swing state would change our politics for a generation, just say it: Republicans agree to abolish the electoral college; PR, DC get statehood and much more.
Allred was a strong candidate. I definitely hope it's him again next year.
I don't think we can assume Democrats would pass our dream list the next time they have a trifecta. Look at what they didn't do the last couple of times. Good analysis of Texas, though.
Brown is not running for Senate -- it's Governor or nothing (he'd have to run again in 2 years for the full term and 3 campaigns in a right-leaning state in 4 years just won't happen). If Tim Ryan hadn't run already I'd say he would've been our best bet. I think the one's off the table just because our bench is non-existent. Maybe if Greg Landsman changes his mind because his seat gets nuked in redistricting.
Yes -- ME is the main frustruation point. You can't beat somebody with nobodoy, and I hope the lack of strong challenger doesn't deter Collins from retiring when a strong challenger otherwise might. Word of caution: I feel like Jared Golden would be Sinema and Manchin rolled into one annoying body as a Senator. But.. you take what you can get.
Maine hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1988. Damn right I'll take what we can get.
Angus King is basically a liberal Democrat except on some economic issues. He has very high rating from Liberal orgs.
That's not the point, he never won an election as a Democrat.
Have Democrats run any credible candidate against him? He's basically a moderate Bernie Sanders.
Given King has been a reliable vote for and has caucused with Democrats in the Senate ever since he was originally elected, there’s no energy to unseat him.
All of King’s Democratic challengers have barely been able to mount a credible campaign.
But he's not a Democrat. Democrats in Maine are not all that successful statewide.
I'll take Golden over Collins and I don't know that some liberal Democrat would have a better chance.
Keep in mind that it was for a long time Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins in the Senate. Both first took office in the mid 90’s and served together for 15 years.
When Snowe retired in 2012, Angus King running for the Senate made it more difficult for Democrats as he was a popular Governor prior to that. If Democrats have to challenge an incumbent GOP Senator or a popular politician like King running as an Independent, the task of winning a Senate seat is made much harder.
You mean if they don't have an open seat, don't you?
Yes, an open Senate seat makes it much easier for Democrats to win.
If Angus King didn’t run for the Senate back in 2012, the Senate race for Democrats would have likely been much easier for them. 2012 was a high turnout election as opposed to 2010 and 2014.
You said it was much harder for Democrats to win if they don't have an incumbent GOP senator.
I think it's quite intuitive that Golden would have the best chance, and yes, it's so difficult to beat Collins that any potential edge is worth it.
To nuke Landsman’s seat in redistricting you’d need to make it much more ridiculous looking than it already is. It would make an even bigger mockery of the “independent” redistricting commission that “banned gerrymandering” that Republicans defended last year.
It’s not like Kaptur’s seat where Republicans can just attach blood red counties to the West to Lucas county.
I'm more inclined to believe Golden would be Kirsten Gillibrand if elected to the Senate, giving up the pretense of being a conservadem when no longer have to split hairs to win in a tough rural district.
I'm not sure why anyone would believe that. He *worked* for Collins. And Maine is nowhere near as Democratic as NY to warrant such a change.
Exactly, you're optimistic but Democrats need to BELIEVE in Blexas, Bluerida and Blaska first for any of them to HAPPEN!
It is really hard to believe in Bluerida though, even Blansas, Bliowa, and Blubraska seem like more plausible targets.
How are we going to win over socially conservative rural white voters and WWC voters in Iowa and Kansas? Urbanised states with diverse populations should be our target with the kind of polling Trump currently has with all minority groups. The largest shifts in Trump's approval have been seen in non white voters.
Gubernatorial elections are much more localised compared to Senatorial ones.
Is there a way to win statewide elections in those states without conservative votes?
https://www.notus.org/2026-election/independent-dan-osborn-succeed-this-time
Dan Osborn though is a formidable candidate in Nebraska who fell short by just 6.5 points last year.
Texas and Florida were the closest states that we lost in both 2018 and 2020. Florida would be tougher now as the state party there is in shambles without a deep bench. Texas' Senate election in contrast has seen a lot of interest from many Democratic candidates.
Edit : 6.5 not 3
3 points? He lost by 6.5 points.
Tariff loving "Progressive Conservative" ex-Collins staffer Golden will be a horrible candidate who's 100 percent going to be a Sinema. We need a unabashed Liberal against Collins to turnout the base and be a consistent vote representing a blue state in the Senate.
Probably worth considering primarying Golden if he runs for reelection instead. If the seat flips-nothing changes, Golden is already essentially a Republican.
Golden is a pain in the ass but he's undeniably better than any republican in congress this century. He's generally there when we really need his vote. The difficulty with him is damaging our messaging more than anything.
I'll continue to be annoyed with him but I'd rather have him than a republican any day of the week. Even while annoying I'm glad we have him.
If the only thing he ever does for us is provide a vote for a dem speaker, he will be better than a republican.
Disagree-Golden already is a Republican (just not in Party ID), and if he's not, he's no better than one-I'd rather lose the seat than have him in the house.
No Republican has ever voted 90% of the time for Biden’s policies or for a Democratic House Speaker. Just saying.
He voted for the IRA, which zero republicans in the house and senate did. He supports abortion rights. He's in favor of gun control now, even if he wasn't earlier. He voted for Jeffries to be speaker.
I'm not going to pretend this is some high bar to clear. It isn't. He's the biggest pain in the ass in our congressional caucus and he routinely finds ways to piss us off. He makes tons of bad votes.
But he is clearly and unambiguously to the left of every elected republican in congress right now. He is not a republican. In a country with more than two functioning political parties he wouldn't be a democrat either, and would likely align with a center-right or centrist party. That isn't what the US has though and he is easily better than every republican in congress.
Put another way: What republican member of the house do you think is no worse than him? If he is a de facto republican then there should be a republican with a similar voting record out there. What republican voted for the IRA and to make Jeffries speaker?
He wouldn't have done any of those things if Republicans needed his vote
Well, just because you say so, it must be true.
I agree with this comment and any Democrats is useful in a Republicans seat than an actual Republican but here's his phony populism on rejecting Build Back Better:
https://golden.house.gov/media/press-releases/golden-opposes-tax-breaks-millionaires-commits-working-senate-improve-build
This is nonsense. You'd rather lose the seat? Why on earth would you want to take a vote away from a potential D speakership. C'mon man...
Either way it's a vote for a Republican Speaker
The vote for Speaker of the House changes, that's the most important thing.
If Golden's vote was needed to elect a Republican Speaker, he would vote for the Republican
I highly, highly doubt that.
Based on what? Seriously man, you are just trolling at this point...
He's good enough for the House but definitely not for the Senate.
Worth noting Golden is pro-choice.
Also, he co-sponsored statehood for DC, opposes efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and has a good pro-union record (sponsored a bill strengthening union organizing).
Far from being a Republican but I get your sentiment.
I would primary Josh Gottheimer, not Jared Golden.
https://www.ontheissues.org/House/Jared_Golden.htm
I wonder if Gottheimer sticks around if he loses the Gubernatorial primary next month.
It’s not an improbable thing that Gottheimer will stick around if he loses the gubernatorial primary. He represents a waspy, extremely wealthy part of NJ and he’ll still want to be relevant in a district which he’s had no problem holding and winning re-election in.
I’m still amazed that Gottheimer pulled off one of the few upset House wins in 2016 by unseating Scott Garrett, who was always notoriously difficult for Democrats to beat in previous elections.
Excuse me, WASPy? He represents the 5th District:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey%27s_5th_congressional_district
Ethnicity
59.2% White
16.2% Hispanic
15.9% Asian
5.2% Black
2.8% Two or more races
0.7% other
I believe there are a lot of Jews and Catholics (particularly Italians) there, too. It's Northern New Jersey. So what are you saying?
This is not a good analysis. Dems are higher propensity voters and are going to be fired up to vote next year no matter who the nominee is. Golden would have a great chance to beat Collins, but I doubt he'd run against her, so it's a moot point most likely.
Even if he wins, we simply don't need a Manchinema 2.0 when you could run any other normal Democrat. Politicians like him make sense representing a R leaning district in the House but not even a swing state in the Senate. Republicans hate any guy to the left of Reagan, why do we need someone to the right of Sinema? We have had enough of such Liebermans and Manchins already.
Oh, I agree. I think we can beat her with a standard Dem if this year turns out the way we think it's going to. I was just pointing out that saying he's not a good statewide candidate is wrong.
Trouble is, any other Democrat isn't running (yet)
I don't think so. Remember that Maine as a state is not a Blue juggernaut. The Maine House of Reps sits 76 D - 73 R. The Maine Senate is 20 D - 15 R. It had a Republican Governor for almost the entirety of Obama's Presidency. This is no Massachusetts.
+9D in 2020 is definitely a Blue state. By this train of thought, even Minnesota which has a deadlocked house is not a Blue state. State legislative elections have different dynamics to national ones.
Presidential toplines are not the be all and end all. Especially outdated ones. It regressed to +7D last year.
Here's how I might put the potentially competitive races, in my order. I'm assuming that this will be a bad cycle for the GOP, probably similar to 2018. Of course many of these would change once we know the candidates.
Minnesota, New Hampshire: likely D and only because they're open. Those states are generically lean D.
Michigan: lean D. Generically, it's tilt D.
Georgia: lean D. It would have been a tossup with Kemp, but now it's Ossoff's race to win. If he plays his cards right he should beat anyone by at least a few points.
Maine: tilt D. Collins is unpopular, but people are still used to voting for her. This is still a Harris +7 state in what is shaping up as a terrible cycle for the GOP. Her 2020 margin would have been a lot closer if the second place votes had been counted, and I think her luck is likely to run out this year if Dems put up a strong candidate who runs a good race.
North Carolina: tossup to tilt D. Maybe tilt D if Cooper gets in. Tillis won't be an easy out, but I'd rather be us than them this cycle.
Ohio: tilt R. The GOP won by 3.6 (granted, against Brown) in 2024 and 6.1 in 2022, both of which were terrible cycles for Dems. Husted is an appointed incumbent. This will be in play.
Texas: lean R. Cornyn wouldn't be *that* safe, he won by just 9.6 in 2020. If he loses the primary, this one is definitely in play. Wide range of possibilities here depending on the extent to which Latinos snap back against Trump.
Iowa: lean R. Ernst is a pretty good fit for the state. She ran behind Trump in 2020, but her race was much more contested. The GOP has gotten buried in recent specials in Iowa. Ernst should win, but probably by less than in 2020. If for whatever reason she isn't the nominee, this could go either way.
Florida: lean R but only because it has an appointed incumbent. Dems nearly won with an incumbent in 2018, but the state has moved far to the right since then and demographic creep there is still very unfavorable.
Alaska: lean R to likely R. Unlike Ernst, Sullivan won easily in 2020. Peltola might give him a hard time if she gets in.
These might be a touch optimistic (particularly FL and OH) but are pretty defensible...
Cornyn is losing the primary on all counts either to Hunt or Paxton, why are we still discussing him? He is deeply unpopular among Texan Republicans.
It's 2025, the primary is a long way off.
No way NC is likely D no matter who the nominees are. Cooper might make that race a tossup. TX is lean R for now, I suppose it could edge into tossup territory but it's hard to see that. These are waaaaay too optimistic, even for what I think will likely be a Dem wave year.
Just wanted to say wowza -- this is one of my first big comments on this site and the amount of engagement is crazy. Thank you guys! :)