I'm in NC and there is WAY more resistance and calling out Tillis on his cowardly BS now than there was back in 2020. I pray Gov Cooper decides to run against him; it will be a relatively easy D pickup if that's the case.
As for Maine, Gov Mills is more battle tested than Jared Golden (I don't see him running against his former boss Colli…
I'm in NC and there is WAY more resistance and calling out Tillis on his cowardly BS now than there was back in 2020. I pray Gov Cooper decides to run against him; it will be a relatively easy D pickup if that's the case.
As for Maine, Gov Mills is more battle tested than Jared Golden (I don't see him running against his former boss Collins) -- and I think she could beat Susan. Especially in a D-favorable midterm cycle.
Mills is the preference for me from an ideological standpoint too; however, I don't see her running due to the age factor. She'd be a freshman Senator at 77/78 -- that is way too old even by Senate standards. But regardless, I hope that either she or Golden go for it, because otherwise, I think the seat is unfortunately a very likely GOP hold.
Worth noting: Former governor Paul LePage has just announced that he’s challenging Jared Golden for ME-02. LePage has proudly described himself as "Trump before Trump"; it’s clear he was itching for an appointment in the former Trump Administration. Paul LePage is 76 years old (but seems far older from the neck up).
Imho, Janet Mills could and should run against Collins despite her age. Mills is the only potential candidate I see with a good chance to unseat the "chronically concerned" Susan Collin. It’s imperative that we retake the Senate – not least to stop further judicial appointments by Trump. Janet Mills can serve one term and then leave an open seat for a younger successor.
Collins keeps surprising us, in election after election, there is no denying that.
Ok, I’ll make an effort to say one thing positive about her: Susan Collins is a hard-working senator. She rarely – if ever – misses a Senate vote. Imho, Democrats should try to replicate that, the latest example being Senator Whitehouse missing a key vote that enabled Republicans to table the bill.
No, I think Sheldon Whitehouse is a good man. Check out his series of lectures on how dark money, through the Federalist Society, Judicial watch and other right-wing organization, captured the Supreme Court and much of the rest of our judiciary.
Imho, Senator Whitehouse would have been far better than Durbin as chairman / ranking member on the Senate Judiciary. I hope he soon replaces Durbin in that role.
Yep, he was a marvelous Senator in the former country known as the United States of America. We have so little room for error nowadays, as we try to salvage a democracy, and missing out on opportunities is painful.
My impression is that, because of comity, much of the Senate voting schedule is by agreement between the Majority and Minority Leaders. Surely Chuck Schumer knew when Whitehouse would be traveling.
I'm not fully in touch with the hold that Collins allegedly has over Maine voters but I think her air of infallibility is likely overstated. If the partisan tide is strong enough, she's not gonna be able to withstand it. I don't see her being a forever outlier to the laws of political gravity any more than Collin Peterson, Jon Tester, or Sherrod Brown were. Nor do I think it'll take a rock star Democratic challenger to take her down.
Bottom line: any scenario where the Democrats win back or tie the Senate in 2026 will include picking up the seat in Maine. There's no scenario where they pick up Iowa, Alaska, or Texas and don't get Maine. Either the tide is strong enough to wash away Collins or the tide falls far short.
It's important to remember that Collins won her last race with just 51% of the vote. The Democrat got 42%, and the remainder was split across two independents. Since Collins cracked 50%, the instant-runoff calculation was never completed, so we don't actually know how close it truly would have been from a D vs. R standpoint if she'd gotten slightly fewer votes. This comes after winning her three prior elections with 58-68% of the vote. I'm not getting my hopes up, but her luck may have finally run out, especially as the alleged moderates are asked to further enable an extremist authoritarian government with every vote.
We must remember that Maine as a state is not a Blue juggernaut. The Maine House of Reps sits 76 D - 73 R. The Maine Senate is 20 D - 15 R. This is no Massachusetts.
Not really. Take New Hampshire for example. NH votes Democrat solidly at the Presidential level and yet is dominated by the GOP at the state level. They essentially hold ALL levers of government and the Supreme Court at the state level. They are one federal race away from being a threat to Democrats -- Chris Sununu running for the Senate would've made that seat automatically a toss up, if not lean R. So no, a state voting Blue for President by a less than double digit margin doesn't guarantee that it's Senators are gonna be Democrats. Especially when it has no issues electing GOPers to important offices while also voting for said Democratic presidential nominee.
New Hampshire is unique and different than Maine, it's more rural and has a very libertarian and liberal-conservative culture.
Parsing the old, white, educated, libertarian, anti-tax, pro-choice politics of New Hampshire. https://archive.ph/NdYIt
"It is an older, mostly white state that’s very rural, but you have all these college-educated voters who are irreligious, and [these factors] are in conflict with themselves".
Maine in contrast has voted for Democrats since Bill Clinton at the federal level and has had a Democratic trifectas a lot of times.
Remember, if Gore won New Hampshire he wouldn't have needed Florida.
I think an outsider could win but I hope those two decide quickly so said person can start putting together a campaign that is not frozen by them. Collins limped across the line in 20 with 51% of the vote she is not some unbeatable juggernaut.
The polling at this point in the 20 cycle actually mostly had Collins ahead by a comfortable amount. I can see her winning again by bringing home enough Rs and keeping enough moderates to get another low fifties win but the commentary here makes it seem like 71% of voters right of the bat think she deserves to be reelected.
Agreed. An outsider could win. Either the laws of political gravity catch up to Collins in a toxic electoral environment or else the electoral environment simply wasn't toxic enough.
It's not a very likely GOP hold, polls show that only a very small fraction of Harris voters support her. She has a bad approval rating too. She will be the next Jon Tester imo. Maine is a blue state which will vote in a potential blue wave, let's act like it.
Given you're in NC, what are your thoughts on Cooper vs. Nickel? Or what are the dynamics there? Would Wiley Nickel be a strong nominee if Cooper passes on the race?
Nickel has said that if Cooper were to enter the race, he would throw his support behind him.
Cooper, were he to run against Tillis, would garner support from partisan Dems, independents, and some squishy R voters. He's never lost a statewide race since winning AG and then governor's seat.
Nickel would benefit from a D-favorable midterm but he has not run a statewide election before. Nickel v. Tillis would be much narrower.
He was never SoS. He served four terms as AG. It should be noted that he barely won the 2016 governor race (by 0.2%) against the controversial incumbent McCrory.
An NC senate race will never be an easy pickup. Sure, with Cooper Dems might have a slight edge but it would almost certainly be a close and hard fought fight.
Anderson Clayton has done an amazing job revitalizing the state Democratic Party since she was elected in 2023. I think if Cooper entered the race, he would win by roughly the same margin Jeff Jackson did for AG last year.
People forget that Tillis won by the skin of his teeth in both R-favorable years (2014 midterms and 2020 presidential). In a D-favorable midterm with a candidate like Cooper, he's toast. With Wiley Nickel, it's a bit iffier.
I'm in NC and there is WAY more resistance and calling out Tillis on his cowardly BS now than there was back in 2020. I pray Gov Cooper decides to run against him; it will be a relatively easy D pickup if that's the case.
As for Maine, Gov Mills is more battle tested than Jared Golden (I don't see him running against his former boss Collins) -- and I think she could beat Susan. Especially in a D-favorable midterm cycle.
Mills is the preference for me from an ideological standpoint too; however, I don't see her running due to the age factor. She'd be a freshman Senator at 77/78 -- that is way too old even by Senate standards. But regardless, I hope that either she or Golden go for it, because otherwise, I think the seat is unfortunately a very likely GOP hold.
Worth noting: Former governor Paul LePage has just announced that he’s challenging Jared Golden for ME-02. LePage has proudly described himself as "Trump before Trump"; it’s clear he was itching for an appointment in the former Trump Administration. Paul LePage is 76 years old (but seems far older from the neck up).
Imho, Janet Mills could and should run against Collins despite her age. Mills is the only potential candidate I see with a good chance to unseat the "chronically concerned" Susan Collin. It’s imperative that we retake the Senate – not least to stop further judicial appointments by Trump. Janet Mills can serve one term and then leave an open seat for a younger successor.
I would bet on Collins winning reelection until she dies or retires, regardless of opinion polling. We shall see.
Collins keeps surprising us, in election after election, there is no denying that.
Ok, I’ll make an effort to say one thing positive about her: Susan Collins is a hard-working senator. She rarely – if ever – misses a Senate vote. Imho, Democrats should try to replicate that, the latest example being Senator Whitehouse missing a key vote that enabled Republicans to table the bill.
Why did he miss that vote?
He was traveling, returning from a visit to South Korea. I blame Schumer for not doing more to delay this vote.
Sheldon certainly doesn't seem like he's taking any responsibility. This comes after he voted to confirm numerous Trump nominees. Bye Sheldon.
No, I think Sheldon Whitehouse is a good man. Check out his series of lectures on how dark money, through the Federalist Society, Judicial watch and other right-wing organization, captured the Supreme Court and much of the rest of our judiciary.
Imho, Senator Whitehouse would have been far better than Durbin as chairman / ranking member on the Senate Judiciary. I hope he soon replaces Durbin in that role.
Yep, he was a marvelous Senator in the former country known as the United States of America. We have so little room for error nowadays, as we try to salvage a democracy, and missing out on opportunities is painful.
What kinds of dilatory moves could he have pulled?
My impression is that, because of comity, much of the Senate voting schedule is by agreement between the Majority and Minority Leaders. Surely Chuck Schumer knew when Whitehouse would be traveling.
That said, I’m not an expert on Senate rules,
Unfortunately I fear you may be right. Everyone assumed she was gone in 2020 but ended up winning even as Biden won Maine by near double digits.
I'm not fully in touch with the hold that Collins allegedly has over Maine voters but I think her air of infallibility is likely overstated. If the partisan tide is strong enough, she's not gonna be able to withstand it. I don't see her being a forever outlier to the laws of political gravity any more than Collin Peterson, Jon Tester, or Sherrod Brown were. Nor do I think it'll take a rock star Democratic challenger to take her down.
Bottom line: any scenario where the Democrats win back or tie the Senate in 2026 will include picking up the seat in Maine. There's no scenario where they pick up Iowa, Alaska, or Texas and don't get Maine. Either the tide is strong enough to wash away Collins or the tide falls far short.
It's important to remember that Collins won her last race with just 51% of the vote. The Democrat got 42%, and the remainder was split across two independents. Since Collins cracked 50%, the instant-runoff calculation was never completed, so we don't actually know how close it truly would have been from a D vs. R standpoint if she'd gotten slightly fewer votes. This comes after winning her three prior elections with 58-68% of the vote. I'm not getting my hopes up, but her luck may have finally run out, especially as the alleged moderates are asked to further enable an extremist authoritarian government with every vote.
Agree with this analysis. She's a force but is definitely beatable, particularly in a D wave year.
We must remember that Maine as a state is not a Blue juggernaut. The Maine House of Reps sits 76 D - 73 R. The Maine Senate is 20 D - 15 R. This is no Massachusetts.
+9D in 2020 sounds like a solid Blue state. State legislature elections don't have national dynamics and state RPs in New England are not MAGA.
Not really. Take New Hampshire for example. NH votes Democrat solidly at the Presidential level and yet is dominated by the GOP at the state level. They essentially hold ALL levers of government and the Supreme Court at the state level. They are one federal race away from being a threat to Democrats -- Chris Sununu running for the Senate would've made that seat automatically a toss up, if not lean R. So no, a state voting Blue for President by a less than double digit margin doesn't guarantee that it's Senators are gonna be Democrats. Especially when it has no issues electing GOPers to important offices while also voting for said Democratic presidential nominee.
New Hampshire is unique and different than Maine, it's more rural and has a very libertarian and liberal-conservative culture.
Parsing the old, white, educated, libertarian, anti-tax, pro-choice politics of New Hampshire. https://archive.ph/NdYIt
"It is an older, mostly white state that’s very rural, but you have all these college-educated voters who are irreligious, and [these factors] are in conflict with themselves".
Maine in contrast has voted for Democrats since Bill Clinton at the federal level and has had a Democratic trifectas a lot of times.
Remember, if Gore won New Hampshire he wouldn't have needed Florida.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Maine
I had thought Maine was more rural. Are you using Federal figures on percentage of rural vs. urban and suburban?
I would bet on her being "concerned" with what to do for the rest of her time after losing reelection in 2026.
“I was Trump before Trump.”
Not going to help him win the race. Only one person can be Trump and that’s Trump himself.
I think an outsider could win but I hope those two decide quickly so said person can start putting together a campaign that is not frozen by them. Collins limped across the line in 20 with 51% of the vote she is not some unbeatable juggernaut.
"Frustration from both sides is clearly reflected in the poll results released Thursday.
Overall, 21% of Maine residents believe Collins deserves to be reelected, while 71% believe she does not, according to the survey.
Among Democrats, 84% believe she does not deserve another term, while 67% of independents and 57% of Republicans agree."
https://www.pressherald.com/2025/04/24/most-mainers-dont-think-susan-collins-deserves-another-term-survey-says/?uuid=ea30f625-7e77-4a7c-8b4c-b41e82f5ab80&lid=60747
I'm skeptical they're getting the polling right, though, after last time.
The polling at this point in the 20 cycle actually mostly had Collins ahead by a comfortable amount. I can see her winning again by bringing home enough Rs and keeping enough moderates to get another low fifties win but the commentary here makes it seem like 71% of voters right of the bat think she deserves to be reelected.
I'm not claiming that. I'm stating that we should never bet against her being reelected as long as she runs.
Agreed. An outsider could win. Either the laws of political gravity catch up to Collins in a toxic electoral environment or else the electoral environment simply wasn't toxic enough.
It's not a very likely GOP hold, polls show that only a very small fraction of Harris voters support her. She has a bad approval rating too. She will be the next Jon Tester imo. Maine is a blue state which will vote in a potential blue wave, let's act like it.
https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-chances-defeating-susan-collins-maine-according-polls-2064775
But polls seemed to show that last time.
Given you're in NC, what are your thoughts on Cooper vs. Nickel? Or what are the dynamics there? Would Wiley Nickel be a strong nominee if Cooper passes on the race?
Nickel has said that if Cooper were to enter the race, he would throw his support behind him.
Cooper, were he to run against Tillis, would garner support from partisan Dems, independents, and some squishy R voters. He's never lost a statewide race since winning AG and then governor's seat.
Nickel would benefit from a D-favorable midterm but he has not run a statewide election before. Nickel v. Tillis would be much narrower.
When did Cooper run for SOS? It has been held by Marshall for almost 30 years.
:)
Whoops, I totally forgot about Elaine Marshall being SOS. Edited my earlier post.
He was never SoS. He served four terms as AG. It should be noted that he barely won the 2016 governor race (by 0.2%) against the controversial incumbent McCrory.
To be fair, in 2016 Cooper had to deal with Trump winning at the top of the ticket by four points.
If he can beat Tillis even by that .2% margin in 2026, I’ll take it.
An NC senate race will never be an easy pickup. Sure, with Cooper Dems might have a slight edge but it would almost certainly be a close and hard fought fight.
Anderson Clayton has done an amazing job revitalizing the state Democratic Party since she was elected in 2023. I think if Cooper entered the race, he would win by roughly the same margin Jeff Jackson did for AG last year.
People forget that Tillis won by the skin of his teeth in both R-favorable years (2014 midterms and 2020 presidential). In a D-favorable midterm with a candidate like Cooper, he's toast. With Wiley Nickel, it's a bit iffier.
The killing of the EXTREMELY VITAL biotech industry (especially in the Triangle) needs to be wrapped firmly around Tillis' neck.
From a cutoff in Federal funding?