I'm not fully in touch with the hold that Collins allegedly has over Maine voters but I think her air of infallibility is likely overstated. If the partisan tide is strong enough, she's not gonna be able to withstand it. I don't see her being a forever outlier to the laws of political gravity any more than Collin Peterson, Jon Tester, or…
I'm not fully in touch with the hold that Collins allegedly has over Maine voters but I think her air of infallibility is likely overstated. If the partisan tide is strong enough, she's not gonna be able to withstand it. I don't see her being a forever outlier to the laws of political gravity any more than Collin Peterson, Jon Tester, or Sherrod Brown were. Nor do I think it'll take a rock star Democratic challenger to take her down.
Bottom line: any scenario where the Democrats win back or tie the Senate in 2026 will include picking up the seat in Maine. There's no scenario where they pick up Iowa, Alaska, or Texas and don't get Maine. Either the tide is strong enough to wash away Collins or the tide falls far short.
It's important to remember that Collins won her last race with just 51% of the vote. The Democrat got 42%, and the remainder was split across two independents. Since Collins cracked 50%, the instant-runoff calculation was never completed, so we don't actually know how close it truly would have been from a D vs. R standpoint if she'd gotten slightly fewer votes. This comes after winning her three prior elections with 58-68% of the vote. I'm not getting my hopes up, but her luck may have finally run out, especially as the alleged moderates are asked to further enable an extremist authoritarian government with every vote.
We must remember that Maine as a state is not a Blue juggernaut. The Maine House of Reps sits 76 D - 73 R. The Maine Senate is 20 D - 15 R. This is no Massachusetts.
Not really. Take New Hampshire for example. NH votes Democrat solidly at the Presidential level and yet is dominated by the GOP at the state level. They essentially hold ALL levers of government and the Supreme Court at the state level. They are one federal race away from being a threat to Democrats -- Chris Sununu running for the Senate would've made that seat automatically a toss up, if not lean R. So no, a state voting Blue for President by a less than double digit margin doesn't guarantee that it's Senators are gonna be Democrats. Especially when it has no issues electing GOPers to important offices while also voting for said Democratic presidential nominee.
New Hampshire is unique and different than Maine, it's more rural and has a very libertarian and liberal-conservative culture.
Parsing the old, white, educated, libertarian, anti-tax, pro-choice politics of New Hampshire. https://archive.ph/NdYIt
"It is an older, mostly white state that’s very rural, but you have all these college-educated voters who are irreligious, and [these factors] are in conflict with themselves".
Maine in contrast has voted for Democrats since Bill Clinton at the federal level and has had a Democratic trifectas a lot of times.
Remember, if Gore won New Hampshire he wouldn't have needed Florida.
I'm not fully in touch with the hold that Collins allegedly has over Maine voters but I think her air of infallibility is likely overstated. If the partisan tide is strong enough, she's not gonna be able to withstand it. I don't see her being a forever outlier to the laws of political gravity any more than Collin Peterson, Jon Tester, or Sherrod Brown were. Nor do I think it'll take a rock star Democratic challenger to take her down.
Bottom line: any scenario where the Democrats win back or tie the Senate in 2026 will include picking up the seat in Maine. There's no scenario where they pick up Iowa, Alaska, or Texas and don't get Maine. Either the tide is strong enough to wash away Collins or the tide falls far short.
It's important to remember that Collins won her last race with just 51% of the vote. The Democrat got 42%, and the remainder was split across two independents. Since Collins cracked 50%, the instant-runoff calculation was never completed, so we don't actually know how close it truly would have been from a D vs. R standpoint if she'd gotten slightly fewer votes. This comes after winning her three prior elections with 58-68% of the vote. I'm not getting my hopes up, but her luck may have finally run out, especially as the alleged moderates are asked to further enable an extremist authoritarian government with every vote.
Agree with this analysis. She's a force but is definitely beatable, particularly in a D wave year.
We must remember that Maine as a state is not a Blue juggernaut. The Maine House of Reps sits 76 D - 73 R. The Maine Senate is 20 D - 15 R. This is no Massachusetts.
+9D in 2020 sounds like a solid Blue state. State legislature elections don't have national dynamics and state RPs in New England are not MAGA.
Not really. Take New Hampshire for example. NH votes Democrat solidly at the Presidential level and yet is dominated by the GOP at the state level. They essentially hold ALL levers of government and the Supreme Court at the state level. They are one federal race away from being a threat to Democrats -- Chris Sununu running for the Senate would've made that seat automatically a toss up, if not lean R. So no, a state voting Blue for President by a less than double digit margin doesn't guarantee that it's Senators are gonna be Democrats. Especially when it has no issues electing GOPers to important offices while also voting for said Democratic presidential nominee.
New Hampshire is unique and different than Maine, it's more rural and has a very libertarian and liberal-conservative culture.
Parsing the old, white, educated, libertarian, anti-tax, pro-choice politics of New Hampshire. https://archive.ph/NdYIt
"It is an older, mostly white state that’s very rural, but you have all these college-educated voters who are irreligious, and [these factors] are in conflict with themselves".
Maine in contrast has voted for Democrats since Bill Clinton at the federal level and has had a Democratic trifectas a lot of times.
Remember, if Gore won New Hampshire he wouldn't have needed Florida.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Maine
I had thought Maine was more rural. Are you using Federal figures on percentage of rural vs. urban and suburban?