Here's how I might put the potentially competitive races, in my order. I'm assuming that this will be a bad cycle for the GOP, probably similar to 2018. Of course many of these would change once we know the candidates.
Minnesota, New Hampshire: likely D and only because they're open. Those states are generically lean D.
Here's how I might put the potentially competitive races, in my order. I'm assuming that this will be a bad cycle for the GOP, probably similar to 2018. Of course many of these would change once we know the candidates.
Minnesota, New Hampshire: likely D and only because they're open. Those states are generically lean D.
Michigan: lean D. Generically, it's tilt D.
Georgia: lean D. It would have been a tossup with Kemp, but now it's Ossoff's race to win. If he plays his cards right he should beat anyone by at least a few points.
Maine: tilt D. Collins is unpopular, but people are still used to voting for her. This is still a Harris +7 state in what is shaping up as a terrible cycle for the GOP. Her 2020 margin would have been a lot closer if the second place votes had been counted, and I think her luck is likely to run out this year if Dems put up a strong candidate who runs a good race.
North Carolina: tossup to tilt D. Maybe tilt D if Cooper gets in. Tillis won't be an easy out, but I'd rather be us than them this cycle.
Ohio: tilt R. The GOP won by 3.6 (granted, against Brown) in 2024 and 6.1 in 2022, both of which were terrible cycles for Dems. Husted is an appointed incumbent. This will be in play.
Texas: lean R. Cornyn wouldn't be *that* safe, he won by just 9.6 in 2020. If he loses the primary, this one is definitely in play. Wide range of possibilities here depending on the extent to which Latinos snap back against Trump.
Iowa: lean R. Ernst is a pretty good fit for the state. She ran behind Trump in 2020, but her race was much more contested. The GOP has gotten buried in recent specials in Iowa. Ernst should win, but probably by less than in 2020. If for whatever reason she isn't the nominee, this could go either way.
Florida: lean R but only because it has an appointed incumbent. Dems nearly won with an incumbent in 2018, but the state has moved far to the right since then and demographic creep there is still very unfavorable.
Alaska: lean R to likely R. Unlike Ernst, Sullivan won easily in 2020. Peltola might give him a hard time if she gets in.
Here's how I might put the potentially competitive races, in my order. I'm assuming that this will be a bad cycle for the GOP, probably similar to 2018. Of course many of these would change once we know the candidates.
Minnesota, New Hampshire: likely D and only because they're open. Those states are generically lean D.
Michigan: lean D. Generically, it's tilt D.
Georgia: lean D. It would have been a tossup with Kemp, but now it's Ossoff's race to win. If he plays his cards right he should beat anyone by at least a few points.
Maine: tilt D. Collins is unpopular, but people are still used to voting for her. This is still a Harris +7 state in what is shaping up as a terrible cycle for the GOP. Her 2020 margin would have been a lot closer if the second place votes had been counted, and I think her luck is likely to run out this year if Dems put up a strong candidate who runs a good race.
North Carolina: tossup to tilt D. Maybe tilt D if Cooper gets in. Tillis won't be an easy out, but I'd rather be us than them this cycle.
Ohio: tilt R. The GOP won by 3.6 (granted, against Brown) in 2024 and 6.1 in 2022, both of which were terrible cycles for Dems. Husted is an appointed incumbent. This will be in play.
Texas: lean R. Cornyn wouldn't be *that* safe, he won by just 9.6 in 2020. If he loses the primary, this one is definitely in play. Wide range of possibilities here depending on the extent to which Latinos snap back against Trump.
Iowa: lean R. Ernst is a pretty good fit for the state. She ran behind Trump in 2020, but her race was much more contested. The GOP has gotten buried in recent specials in Iowa. Ernst should win, but probably by less than in 2020. If for whatever reason she isn't the nominee, this could go either way.
Florida: lean R but only because it has an appointed incumbent. Dems nearly won with an incumbent in 2018, but the state has moved far to the right since then and demographic creep there is still very unfavorable.
Alaska: lean R to likely R. Unlike Ernst, Sullivan won easily in 2020. Peltola might give him a hard time if she gets in.
These might be a touch optimistic (particularly FL and OH) but are pretty defensible...
Cornyn is losing the primary on all counts either to Hunt or Paxton, why are we still discussing him? He is deeply unpopular among Texan Republicans.
It's 2025, the primary is a long way off.