Morning Digest: Everyone is waiting on Alaska's best-known Democrat to pick a race

Former state Sen. Tom Begich wants to run for governor—but only if Mary Peltola doesn't

Former Rep. Mary Peltola, Alaska’s most prominent Democrat (credit: Mary Peltola Facebook)

Leading Off

AK-Gov, AK-Sen, AK-AL

Former state Sen. Tom Begich says he wants to run for governor of Alaska next year―but only if the Last Frontier's most prominent Democrat seeks a different office.

Begich tells the Northern Journal's Nathaniel Herz that he's waiting to see what former Rep. Mary Peltola, who is one of the most sought-after recruits in the nation, does before making his own decision.

"If she chooses to run for either U.S. House or U.S. Senate, I will absolutely run for governor," says Begich. "If she doesn't choose to do that, but chooses to run for governor, then I'll be supporting her."

Begich, who is the brother of former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich, is far from the only Democrat carefully eyeing Peltola's next move. The Cook Political Report said in February that Peltola was "likely" to run to succeed Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy, who is termed out next year, but that hasn't been the last word about her plans.

Both CNN and the New York Times reported in the spring that Democrats are instead trying to convince Peltola to challenge Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, who unseated Mark Begich in 2014.

There's also talk that Peltola could instead run to reclaim her old job as Alaska's lone House member by seeking a rematch against Rep. Nick Begich―a Republican who happens to be Mark and Tom's nephew. (Tom Begich wrote an op-ed slamming his younger relative earlier this year.)

Peltola herself has joked about how in-demand she is in a state where her party has a small bench. She said in December, "In 2026 I intend to run for governor, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House. All at the same time." But while a Peltola-Peltola-Peltola ticket might delight Democrats if it were possible, she has to choose just one of these three races―and she hasn't publicly hinted which one she's leaning toward.

A former Peltola campaign manager informs Herz that her old boss remains undecided about what to do, adding that the ex-congresswoman was "going to make that decision on her own time." That could be a while, as the state's candidate filing deadline isn't until June 1 of next year.

For now, though, the growing field to replace Dunleavy, who is set to become the first governor to be termed out of office since 2002, remains an all-Republican affair.

Podiatrist Matt Heilala, who is a member of the Alaska Medical Board, became the fourth notable GOP candidate on Friday. The Alaska Landmine says that Heilala is "wealthy and is rumored to be willing to put a lot of his own money into his campaign."

Heilala joins a trio of fellow Republicans: Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, former state Sen. Click Bishop, and operative Bernadette Wilson. Mat-Su Borough Mayor Edna DeVries, who just turned 84, has also filed paperwork to run but has yet to publicly commit to a campaign.

Heilala has not held office before, but he's been a generous donor to Republican candidates and conservative ballot measures. The Anchorage Daily News says that one of his causes is next year's campaign to do away with Alaska's unique top-four primaries and ranked-choice general elections.

Because a similar repeal effort fell just short of passage last year, though, this year's elections will still be conducted using the existing rules. All candidates will run on a single primary ballot, with the top four contenders, regardless of party, advancing to a ranked-choice general election.

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Zohran's pollster pulls back the curtain on how he won

Election Recaps

AZ-07

Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva easily won Tuesday's Democratic primary in Arizona's 7th Congressional District and will be the heavy favorite in the Sept. 23 special election to fill the seat previously held by her late father.

Grijalva, the daughter of former Rep. Raul Grijalva, held a wide lead over her nearest rivals: Deja Foxx, a 25-year-old political organizer with a large social media presence, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez, who, as a congressional intern in 2011, provided life-saving assistance to his boss, Rep. Gabby Giffords, after she was shot in the head in a mass shooting at a constituent event.

Grijalva was outpacing Foxx 62-21 as of Wednesday morning, with the Associated Press estimating that 77% of the ballots have been tabulated. The margins may shift as more votes are counted, but the result is not in doubt.

In the general election, Grijalva will face businessman Daniel Butierez, who ran for the GOP last year but lost 63-37. According to calculations by The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried the Tucson-based 7th District by a 60-38 margin, so Grijalva should have little trouble against her underfunded opponent.

GA Public Service Commission

Clean energy expert Peter Hubbard defeated former Atlanta City Council member Keisha Sean Waites 58-42 in Tuesday's Democratic primary runoff for the right to face Republican incumbent Fitz Johnson in the November statewide election for a spot on Georgia's Public Service Commission, which regulates utilities.

The contest between Hubbard and Johnson will take place on the same night that Republican Commissioner Tim Echols goes up against Alicia Johnson, a healthcare administrator who won the Democratic primary last month without opposition, in a second special election for the five-member board. Republicans currently hold all five seats.

While the GOP will maintain control of the panel no matter how this year's elections unfold, a sweep by Democrats would position them to change that soon. Commissioner Tricia Pridemore is up for reelection next year, while the final two incumbents, Jason Shaw and Lauren "Bubba" McDonald, will next be up in 2028.

Senate

IA-Sen

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, who's been the target of retirement speculation for the last month, is doing little to tamp down the chatter.

In a new radio interview on KNIA-KRLS flagged by American Bridge, Ernst dismissed concerns from fellow Republicans that she might bail as "blah blah blah" and "titter tatter." She said she would "have an announcement this fall" but did not directly say whether she'd run again.

Ernst's latest fundraising haul likewise did little to silence any rumors. The senator raised about $720,000 during the second quarter of the year and had $3.4 million in the bank, but during the same time period six years ago, she brought in $1.1 million.

IL-Sen

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has taken to the airwaves a full eight months ahead of Illinois' March 17 Democratic primary for Senate, and his team says he's spending $500,000 for his first week of commercials. The congressman finished June with $21 million in the bank, so audiences can expect to see much more of him before next year's nomination contest.

"Growing up with a name and a background like mine, I always felt like an underdog and I still do," Krishnamoorthi, who would be the first Indian American to represent Illinois in the upper chamber, says in his opening ad. "When I see other underdogs hurt by a rigged system, I fight back."

Krishnamoorthi faces fellow Rep. Robin Kelly and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton in the primary. The winner will be favored to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin in this blue state.

Governors

ME-Gov

Former health care executive Jonathan Bush said Monday that he was forming an exploratory committee ahead of a potential campaign for the Republican nomination for governor of Maine. A wide range of candidates across the political spectrum are already running to replace Democrat Janet Mills, who is termed out next year.

Bush, who is the nephew of the late President George H.W. Bush and a cousin of both George W. Bush and Jeb Bush, hails from what was once the most powerful family in national GOP politics. He's also the brother of TV host Billy Bush, who became nationally infamous in October of 2016 after Donald Trump's "Grab 'em by the pussy" interview surfaced.

Jonathan Bush said later that month that he was voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson over Trump and Hillary Clinton, snarking, "I've settled on the fact that if you can't stand the 'nut' on the left, and you can't stand the 'nut' on the right, go for the 'Johnson.'" Last year, he told the Bangor Daily News that Trump was "personally troubled."

Bush has kept his recent criticisms of Trump more low-key, however. He informed the paper in April, "When I'm in northern Maine, I try to point out a couple things to maybe consider about Trump's imperfection. When I'm in Southern Maine, I try to point out a couple of things that maybe people in their Trump derangement syndrome can't see."

NJ-Gov

A super PAC called Change NJ that's been running ads attacking Democrat Mikie Sherrill still finds her leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli in a new internal poll.

The survey, from KAConsulting, gives Sherrill a 47-42 edge in November's race for New Jersey's open governorship, though naturally it argues that Ciattarelli would fare better after respondents hear more information about both candidates. The toplines are similar to those from other GOP outfits, but the only independent poll since last month's primary, conducted by Rutgers University, found Sherrill with a huge 56-35 advantage.

WI-Gov

Businessman Bill Berrien has begun what the Associated Press' Scott Bauer reports is a $400,000 opening ad buy, more than a year ahead of next August's Republican primary for governor of Wisconsin.

Berrien uses his first paid communication with voters to tout himself as an ardent Donald Trump ally, though Bauer notes he's hardly been a MAGA loyalist in recent years. Berrien said in the summer of 2020 that he wasn't sure who he'd back in that year's presidential election, and he later contributed over $30,000 to aid Nikki Haley's effort to stop Trump in the 2024 GOP primary.

House

CO-05

Democrat Jessica Killin, an Army veteran and one-time chief of staff to former second gentleman Doug Emhoff, has launched a bid to flip Colorado's 5th District—a longtime conservative bastion that has been slowly moving to the left.

Killin is taking on first-term Republican Rep. Jeff Crank, who defeated a penniless opponent 55-41 last year on the same night that Donald Trump was carrying the 5th by a 53-44 margin, according to calculations by The Downballot.

As we noted last month when Killin's candidacy was first floated, though, Crank's showing was the weakest by a Republican since the district was first created more than half a century ago. This Colorado Springs-based constituency was also the rare congressional district to move to the left on the presidential level compared to 2020.

Killin's task remains a tall one, however, and she might find herself competing for anti-Crank votes with another candidate in the general election. Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin flags that another Army veteran, Matt Cavanaugh, is considering a bid as an independent. In a statement, Cavanaugh decried "the broken two-party system in Washington" but did not offer a timetable for making a decision.

Morning Digest: Democrats look to expand House playing field into conservative bastion

FL-27

Attorney Robin Peguero, who served as an investigative counsel for the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 attacks, announced Tuesday that he was entering the Democratic primary to oppose GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar.

Peguero, who became chief of staff for Maryland Rep. Glenn Ivey after Republicans disbanded the committee following their victory in the 2022 elections, launched his campaign to flip this heavily Latino South Florida constituency by highlighting the Trump administration's brutal anti-immigration policies.

"They didn't vote for mass deportations without due process," Peguero told NBC of voters in Florida's 27th District. "People are absolutely having regrets over their votes in the past, and the truth is we just got to move forward."

Former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey and businessman Richard Lamondin were already challenging Salazar in what remains a tough target for Democrats. While the Miami-based 27th District was swingy turf not that long ago, calculations from The Downballot show that Donald Trump carried the district by a 57-42 margin last year, a huge jump from his tiny 49.9 to 49.6 victory in 2020.

IA-04

Republican Kyle Larsen, a farmer and land appraiser, said Monday that he was joining the race for Iowa's safely red 4th District. Larsen, who touts himself as a third-generation farmer, does not appear to have run for office before.

Two candidates—state Rep. Matt Windschitl and Chris McGowan, who is the head of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce—were already competing for the GOP nomination in this western Iowa constituency. This seat is held by Rep. Randy Feenstra, who formed an exploratory committee in May for his widely anticipated campaign for governor.

KY-04

A super PAC run by Donald Trump's top aides has dropped an additional $800,000 on a new ad campaign targeting Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, Axios reports, which brings its total spending to $1.8 million ahead of the Republican primary—which is not until May. (No, you're not imagining it: There's a ton of ad spending aimed at next year's primaries in today's Digest.)

MAGA Inc.'s latest commercial accuses Massie of "voting with the radical Democrats" against Trump's agenda. The audience sees a clip of Trump declaring, "I don't think Thomas Massie understands government. I think he is a grandstander. I think he should be voted out of office."

But while Massie's iconoclasm has made him an outcast in Trumpworld, he still has one influential ally back home. Sen. Rand Paul, who shares the congressman's libertarian-leaning views, reiterated this week that he remains an ardent Massie ally.

Despite the ad barrage, the incumbent has yet to draw a serious intra-party challenge in the safely red 4th District in northern Kentucky, though state Sen. Aaron Reed is considering taking him on.

NE-02

Former Veterans Department official Kishla Askins has joined the Democratic primary for Nebraska's 2nd District, a swing seat where Republican Rep. Don Bacon is not seeking reelection.

Askins used her launch video to discuss her three decades in the Navy and her wife's service in the Marines. She tells the audience the couple "chose to serve our nation," and that her new mission "is to fight for you" in Congress.

Askins separately informed the Nebraska Examiner that she grew up in Ohio and was stationed wherever the military sent her, explaining that she moved to her wife's hometown of Omaha this year. The new candidate, who would be the state's first LGBTQ member of Congress, also acknowledged she was entering a busy primary, but said she "loves" that Democrats will have options.

State Sen. John Cavanaugh and political strategist Denise Powell are Askins' main intra-party opponents in next year's contest. Republicans have their own contested primary between Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding and former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom.

TN-07

State Rep. Vincent Dixie entered the special election for Tennessee's soon-to-be-vacant 7th Congressional District on Tuesday, making him the third notable Democrat seeking to flip this conservative constituency based in Nashville and its suburbs.

Dixie, who would be the state's first-ever Black member of Congress outside of the Memphis area, joins two colleagues in the primary, which has been tentatively scheduled for Oct. 7. Already running for the Democratic nod are state Reps. Aftyn Behn and Bo Mitchell.

Republicans have an even busier primary ahead of the Dec. 2 special election, but their field just shrank by one: Two weeks after jumping into the race, state Rep. Jay Reedy bowed out, a day after Rep. Mark Green endorsed former state cabinet member Matt Van Epps to succeed him.

TX-02

State Rep. Steve Toth announced Tuesday that he'd challenge Rep. Dan Crenshaw in next year's Republican primary for Texas' 2nd District in the northern Houston suburbs.

Toth, a hardliner who unsuccessfully opposed then-Rep. Kevin Brady in the 2016 primary for the old 8th District, launched his newest campaign by criticizing Crenshaw for voting to support Ukraine's defense against Russia's unprovoked invasion. He also faulted the incumbent for having "called MAGA conservatives 'terrorists.'"

Crenshaw, a Navy SEAL veteran who won his current job in 2018, has spent his four terms in office as an ardent Trump ally, but he hasn't been so fond of other members of the GOP coalition.

In early 2023, Crenshaw said that far-right House members who were threatening to keep Kevin McCarthy out of the speaker's chair "are enemies now" and that "we cannot let the terrorists win."

The congressman delivered a non-apology to "colleagues that were offended," though he didn't offer that much to Tucker Carlson when he was recorded telling a journalist earlier this year, "If I ever meet him, I'll fucking kill him." While those comments apparently weren't intended for public consumption, Crenshaw had previously tweeted that Carlson was a "cowardly, know-nothing elitist."

Crenshaw responded to Toth's challenge dismissively.

"I don't have much to say about Steve Toth—because there's not much to say," Crenshaw said in a statement. It turns out, though, that he did have a bit more to say: "While he was busy redrawing his home outside of TX-02, I was working hard for the people of TX-02."

Toth, the Texas Tribune reports, still lives within the boundaries of the 8th District, where Republican Morgan Luttrell was elected in 2022 to replace the retiring Brady. Toth and his colleagues in the legislature, though, are preparing to pass a new gerrymander that could reshape the 2nd District, which backed Trump 61-38 last year.

But while Republicans are hoping a new map will help them flip more seats—Trump told reporters Tuesday he wants to gain five—the local GOP could regret getting too aggressive.

Businessman Shaun Finnie, who is running as a Democrat, began raising money during the final week of June. The Washington Post's Patrick Svitek flags that he quickly raised $340,000 and self-funded another $680,000.

The well-funded Finnie, who ended the second quarter with just over $1 million in the bank, is unlikely to have much of an opening if the 2nd remains anywhere as red as it is now. But if Republicans make the constituency more competitive to weaken Democrats elsewhere in the Houston area, an ugly GOP primary could give Finnie or another Democrat an unexpected opening.

Judges

WI Supreme Court

Justice Rebecca Bradley, whose seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court is up for another 10-year term in April, reported raising zero dollars during the first six months of the year.

Due to her lack of fundraising, WisPolitics reports that "speculation has picked up in conservative legal circles that Bradley is having second thoughts about running" for a second term, following several blowouts for conservative Supreme Court candidates in recent years. Bradley told the site in April, though, that she intends to run again.

By contrast, the consensus liberal candidate, Chris Taylor, brought in a record $580,000 during her first six weeks in the race after announcing her campaign in late May.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel says that if Bradley declines to seek reelection, state Court of Appeals Judge Maria Lazar might run in her stead. Lazar considered a Supreme Court bid for the open-seat race earlier this year (ultimately won by liberal Susan Crawford) but declined.

Attorneys General

NV-AG

Nevada Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro announced Tuesday that she would seek the Democratic nomination for attorney general and entered the race with the backing of several unions, including the local branch of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

The new candidate joins state Treasurer Zach Conine in the primary to replace term-limited Democratic incumbent Aaron Ford, who is preparing to challenge Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. Douglas County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian, who may be the most prominent perennial candidate in the country, currently has the Republican side to himself.

Morning Digest, sponsored by Campaign Hub: A critical race for attorney general is underway in Nevada

Cannizzaro earned widespread attention in 2016 when she flipped a seat in suburban Las Vegas, a victory that helped Democrats take back the Senate after two years of GOP control. In 2019, she became the first woman to serve as majority leader before winning a tight reelection contest the next year. She later prevailed by a convincing 52-46 spread in 2024.

TX-AG

Texas state Sen. Nathan Johnson, who'd reportedly been preparing a bid for attorney general, entered the race on Tuesday in the hopes of becoming the first Democrat to win the post since the 1994 midterms.

Johnson first won elective office in 2018 by unseating Republican state Sen. Don Huffines in a GOP stronghold in North Dallas. He had previously worked as an attorney and also composed music for the popular Japanese anime show Dragon Ball Z. He's the first Democrat to join next year's open-seat contest, though former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski has expressed interest as well.

Republicans so far have a three-way battle in the race to replace incumbent Ken Paxton, who is running for the Senate, with a field that includes Department of Justice official Aaron Reitz and state Sens. Joan Huffman and Mayes Middleton.

Morning Digest: Democrats in two red states are eyeing bids for attorney general