Morning Digest: Swingy Georgia is holding two statewide special elections this fall

And they may offer clues about major battles next year for Senate and governor

Fitz Johnson is one of two Georgia Republicans defending their statewide seats this fall (credit: Fitz Johnson campaign site)

Leading Off

GA Public Service Commission

Georgia will host two special statewide elections this fall, and both parties will be watching these unusual odd-year races for clues about the political climate in this swing state. The twin contests are for seats on the five-member Public Service Commission, which regulates the electricity giant Georgia Power and other utilities.

The PSC—which has been an all-Republican body since Democrat David Burgess lost reelection in 2006—is supposed to hold staggered elections every two even years. But none of the commissioners have been on the ballot since January of 2021, and three of them are still serving even though their six-year terms were supposed to have expired.

Elections in both 2022 and 2024 were canceled due to a lengthy court battle in which voting rights advocates sought to institute district-based elections in place of the existing system. Under that system, all candidates are elected at-large on a statewide basis, which had made it largely impossible for Black voters to elect their preferred candidates.

But while a federal court initially ruled against the at-large approach—under which Burgess remains the sole Black candidate ever elected—that decision was overturned on appeal. The matter was finally resolved last summer when the Supreme Court refused to hear the case, though the GOP-dominated state legislature had already revamped the state's election calendar to hold special elections this fall.

As a result, the two commissioners who were supposed to have been on the ballot in 2022, Tim Echols and Fitz Johnson, will finally be up for election this year. It will also be the first time that Johnson, whom Gov. Brian Kemp appointed in 2021, has ever faced voters. The winners will serve an abbreviated five-year term.

Commissioner Tricia Pridemore's election, likewise, was pushed back from 2024 to next year. The final two incumbents, Jason Shaw and Lauren "Bubba" McDonald, will next be up in 2028 rather than in 2026. Unlike Echols and Johnson, the other three members will be up for a full term.

The filing deadline for this year's contests is April 3, but not just any Georgian can run. Even though they're elected statewide, each commissioner officially represents one-fifth of the state, and they must reside in their district.

Echols' 2nd District includes the southern Atlanta area and communities to the east like Athens, Augusta, and Savanna. Johnson—whose 2021 appointment made him the first Black Republican on the commission—represents Atlanta and many neighboring suburbs in the 3rd District.

Thanks to Georgia's love of runoffs, whoever runs could appear on the ballot as many as four times this year. Party primaries will take place on June 17, but candidates need to win a majority to avoid a July 15 runoff. The general election is set for Nov. 4, which is the same day that Atlanta and several other communities will hold their municipal elections. Again, though, contenders must exceed 50% to avert a Dec. 2 runoff.

A victory in either race would give Democrats their first foothold in state government in well over a decade. While Joe Biden's 2020 victory over Donald Trump represented the party's first victory in a statewide contest since 2006, Republicans have remained the dominant party in Peach State politics.

Two months later, McDonald won a runoff by a narrow 50.4-49.6 margin even as voters favored Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff for Senate. Warnock's reelection in 2022 was his party's only statewide win that cycle.

Democrats, though, are hoping for a breakthrough ahead of 2026's titanic elections for governor and Senate. A Democratic sweep this year would also make the race for Pridemore's seat next year a pivotal contest that would determine control of the entire commission.

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Dems who don't stand up to Trump could face an insurgency

Senate

MI-Sen

Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, who has said she's considering a bid for Michigan's open Senate seat, now tells Axios' Andrew Solender that she'll "have an announcement in about six weeks" but stresses that she's "still exploring" the idea.

MN-Sen

Democrat Dave Wellstone, the son of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone, tells MPR's Dana Ferguson that he's considering a bid for the now-open seat his father once held until his death in an airplane crash just before the 2002 elections. Wellstone, who runs a company that aids people recovering from substance abuse, has not previously run for office.

One person who won't be campaigning in the primary, though, is freshman Democratic Rep. Kelly Morrison, who has confirmed earlier reports that she won't run. Morrison told Politico she won't seek a promotion by saying, "No, I just got here."

RI-Sen

Longtime Democratic Sen. Jack Reed, who previously said he was "planning" to seek a sixth term, tells Punchbowl's Max Cohen that he will indeed run again next year. Reed, 75, has served in elective office continuously since 1985 after winning a seat in Rhode Island's state Senate. He later won elections to the U.S. House in 1990 and the Senate in 1996.

Governors

IL-Gov

DuPage County Sheriff James Mendrick announced a bid for governor on Thursday, making him the first notable Illinois Republican to jump into the race. He may not be the last, though, as the Chicago Tribune's Rick Pearson writes that former state Rep. Jeanne Ives, a hardliner who came shockingly close to upsetting then-Gov. Bruce Rauner in the 2018 primary, has talked about running.

While Mendrick has won two terms to become the top lawman in Illinois' second-largest county, Pearson describes him as "little-known outside law enforcement circles and county Republican politics." Mendrick has also remained an ardent conservative even though DuPage, which is one of Chicago's five collar counties, is no longer a Republican stronghold.

The longtime GOP bastion has trended sharply to the left in recent years, and in 2018, J.B. Pritzker's narrow victory here made him the first Democratic candidate for governor to carry it since 1932. Pritzker, who took DuPage by a far larger margin in 2022, has yet to say whether he'll seek a third term.

VA-Gov

Former state Sen. Amanda Chase announced a bid for governor on Wednesday night, making her the second Virginia Republican to take aim at the GOP's once-presumptive nominee, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

Earlier this week, former Del. Dave LaRock kicked off his own campaign, sniping that Earle-Sears "offers platitudes and backtracks on conservative values." Chase offered a similar message, claiming that "[m]any in Southwest Virginia" say Earle-Sears "doesn't support Trump" and "will stay home if she's on the ballot."

Both LaRock and Chase hail from the party's far-right wing, and both have earned the ire of fellow Republicans.

Chase was booted from the Chesterfield County GOP in 2019 after she refused to apologize for berating a Virginia Capitol Police officer who instructed her not to park her car in a secure area. LaRock, meanwhile, was blasted by the top Republican in the state Senate for running a write-in campaign after losing the GOP primary for an open Senate seat.

Whether either can seriously threaten the better-known Earle-Sears, who until this week had the primary to herself, remains an open question. But to even have a shot, they'll first have to make the ballot, which is no small task in Virginia. Candidates for governor have just over a month left to collect 10,000 valid voter signatures, including 400 from each of the state's 11 congressional districts.

House

PA-07

Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure announced Thursday that he'd challenge freshman Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, a declaration that makes him the first prominent Democrat to enter the race for Pennsylvania's swingy 7th District.

Mackenzie, however, may not have the primary to himself. Former Rep. Susan Wild reaffirmed on the day of his announcement that she has not ruled out running to reclaim the Lehigh Valley seat she narrowly lost last year. Wild, though, also informed the Morning Call that, in reporter Lindsay Weber's words, she is "unlikely to make an announcement in the immediate future."

According to calculations by the Downballot, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris 51-48 in the 7th District after Joe Biden carried it by less than one percentage point. Trump's improved showing helped propel Mackenzie to a 50.5-49.5 victory over Wild following an expensive fight.

McClure, who runs one of the most competitive counties in the entire nation, will be a familiar name to many voters. He was elected in 2017 as leader of Northampton County, which forms 40% of the 7th District, and won again in 2021. McClure is not seeking a third term this year, however, and a competitive race is underway to replace him.

Attorneys General

CO-AG, CO-Gov

Former state House Speaker Crisanta Duran, who had come up as a possible candidate for both governor and attorney general, announced on Thursday that she'd choose door number two.

After leaving the legislature early in 2019, Duran considered a bid for Senate but decided instead to challenge Rep. Diana Degette in the Democratic primary. However, she ended her bid against the longtime incumbent later that year after struggling to raise money.

Duran joins Boulder County District Attorney Michael Dougherty in the race for the Democratic nod, though Secretary of State Jena Griswold and others could also run.

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Mayors & County Leaders

Boston, MA Mayor

Emerson College finds Boston Mayor Michelle Wu leading nonprofit head Josh Kraft 43-29 in the first poll we've seen of this fall's contest. Another 24% of respondents are undecided, while the balance goes to a pair of minor candidates. Both Wu and Kraft are Democrats.

New Orleans, LA Mayor

Former Judge Arthur Hunter announced Thursday that he would enter this year's contest to succeed New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell, who cannot seek a third term. Hunter, like Cantrell and every other notable politician in the Big Easy, is a Democrat.

Hunter stepped down from the bench in 2020 shortly before launching a campaign for district attorney, and he came close to winning a berth in the general election. City Councilman Jason Williams, though, edged out Hunter 29-28 for the crucial second-place spot and went on to win the ensuing runoff.

Prior to this week, City Councilwoman Helena Moreno was the only prominent candidate in the race for mayor. According to recent fundraising reports, she finished 2024 with $970,000 in the bank. Hunter, by contrast, had less than $1,000 left in his old campaign account.

The field, though, may soon grow again, as NOLA.com's James Finn writes that City Councilman Oliver Thomas is "expected" to run in the October all-party primary. Thomas, who had just over $200,000 stockpiled at the end of last year, says he'll make a decision by Tuesday. The councilman, though, presumably will not be making any political announcements on the day the city celebrates Mardi Gras.

New York, NY Mayor

City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams has both confirmed her interest in making a late entry into New York City's race for mayor and created a fundraising committee, but she tells the New York Times that she hasn't made a final decision. Adams—who is not related to incumbent Eric Adams—says she'll make up her mind after she delivers her State of the City address on Tuesday.

The Democratic roster may grow before then, though, as the paper says that former Gov. Andrew Cuomo could finally announce his long-anticipated campaign as "soon as this weekend." The field will finally solidify soon one way or another, as petitioning has now begun ahead of the April 3 filing deadline.