Morning Digest: Democrats look to expand House playing field into conservative bastion

A well-connected operative could run in leftward-trending Colorado Springs

Colorado Democrat Jessica Killin (credit: Jessica Killin Facebook)

Leading Off

CO-05

As Democrats look to expand the House battleground, one well-connected aide is reportedly eyeing a race that could put a longtime conservative bastion in play.

Democrat Jessica Killin, a one-time chief of staff to former second gentleman Doug Emhoff, plans to challenge freshman Republican Rep. Jeff Crank in Colorado's 5th District, reports Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin and Punchbowl. Killin previously served the same role for several different House Democrats, including most recently Washington Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

The 5th, which has long been conservative turf, will be a challenging target for Democrats. Since its creation as a new district based around the city of Colorado Springs following the 1970 census, it's always elected a Republican, and it voted for Donald Trump by a 53-44 margin last year, according to calculations by The Downballot.

The area has, however, been trending toward Democrats for some time as fast-growing Colorado Springs has come to dominate the district, requiring the 5th to shed more rural areas.

In 2024, as the vast majority of the country moved to the right on the presidential level, the 5th District was one of just 19 in the nation that moved leftward compared to four years earlier. And two years before that, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis lost the district by just a 50-47 margin, according to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, en route to winning a second term in a 59-39 blowout.

That leftward shift has been especially notable in Colorado Springs itself, which now makes up about two-thirds of the district and has long been known as the headquarters of the evangelical group Focus on the Family.

In 2023, for the first time since the city began directly electing its mayors more than four decades earlier, a non-Republican won the office when independent Yemi Mobolade, a Nigerian immigrant, cruised to a 58-42 victory.

The region is also home to a large military presence, with multiple Air Force and Army bases ringing the city. Rubashkin notes that Killin is an Army veteran; Crank, like the last several Republicans who preceded him, did not serve.

Democrats have not taken a serious run at the 5th in a long time, though Crank's 55-41 win last year was the weakest-ever showing by a Republican in the district, and it came against a Democratic opponent who never reported raising any money. It'll still be a difficult seat for Killin—or any other Democrat—to flip, but with Colorado Republicans struggling to remain relevant in statewide politics, it's a race worth watching.

The definitive report on 2024

Election Recaps

San Antonio, TX Mayor

Texas Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones defeated Republican Rolando Pablos 54-46 in Saturday's officially nonpartisan election for mayor of San Antonio. Jones, who turned back a well-funded effort to elect San Antonio's first Republican mayor since 1995, will be the first gay person to lead America's seventh-largest city.

Senate

GA-Sen

Former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Friday that he's considering entering the Republican primary to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Reporter Greg Bluestein writes that Dooley will make up his mind "in the coming weeks."

Dooley is the son of the late Vince Dooley, who became a legend in Georgia as coach of the University of Georgia's football team from 1964 to 1988. (One of his most prominent players was Herschel Walker, who won the 1980 Heisman Trophy and lost the 2022 Senate race.)

The younger Dooley achieved national prominence in 2010 when he began coaching for the University of Tennessee, which has a long-standing rivalry with UGA. His tenure did not go well, though, leading the school to fire him just two years later. Dooley continued on as a member of the coaching staff for several college and NFL teams, but he has yet to land another position as head coach.

Dooley has never sought elected office before, but Bluestein writes that he has childhood ties to one of Georgia's most prominent Republicans: Gov. Brian Kemp vacationed with the family, and he later lived with Dooley's brother at UGA.

TX-Sen

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico tells the Houston Chronicle that he's interested in running for the Senate, a race where Democrats are still awaiting their first prominent candidate. Politico, however, writes that the lawmaker is "not expected to make an immediate decision anytime soon."

Talarico, who flipped a GOP-held seat north of Austin in 2018, has attracted attention far outside of Texas during his tenure. The Democrat, who is also a pastor, was the subject of a 2023 Politico profile titled, "He's Deeply Religious and a Democrat. He Might Be the Next Big Thing in Texas Politics."

Talarico has also gained a following on social media for his denunciations of Texas' GOP-led state government. In one particularly popular TikTok video with over 18 million views, the state representative warned right before January's speakership vote that Christian nationalist billionaires Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks were "trying to buy the Texas House" and "transform our beloved state into a theocracy."

Talarico and most of his Democratic colleagues went on to support Republican Dustin Burrows, who defeated a hardline opponent in the race for speaker. Talarico's deliberations come at a time when polls show Sen. John Cornyn badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary.

Morning Digest: John Cornyn explains why he's losing—and it's extremely unconvincing

Governors

CT-Gov

The day after Connecticut lawmakers wrapped up their legislative session, Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont told reporters that he's "a lot more inclined and interested in keeping going" but still hasn't made up his mind about seeking a third term. The governor added that he has no timetable for making an announcement.

As Democrats wait on Lamont, the Republican field is only slowly forming. Jen Tooker, the first selectwoman in the town of Westport, announced her campaign in March, but she doesn't appear to have gained much traction. The only noteworthy Republican who has expressed interest in joining her is New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart, who previously said she'd decide in the fall.

NY-Gov

Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres, who's been eyeing a bid for governor, tells podcaster Trudy Stern that he'll make up his mind after the conclusion of New York City's mayoral race, saying, "I see a Cuomo victory as a necessary condition for running." It's not clear whether Torres was referring to the possibility of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo winning the Democratic primary later this month or the general election in November.

Last week, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who briefly served alongside Torres in the House, launched a challenge to Gov. Kathy Hochul in the Democratic primary. Polls have shown Hochul with comfortable leads over both men.

House

AL Redistricting

A month after a federal court ruled that Alabama Republicans intentionally discriminated against Black voters when they passed a new congressional map in 2023, the state has now appealed to the Supreme Court.

Morning Digest: Alabama GOP purposely discriminated against Black voters, court rules in redistricting case

AZ-05

Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who previously hadn't ruled out a bid for Arizona's open 5th District, now indicates that he's much more interested after a firm called NextGenP released a pair of polls showing him with giant leads in a hypothetical GOP Primary.

In the pollster's newest survey, Lamb takes 55% of the vote against a variety of actual and potential candidates, with his nearest would-be rival, former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely, at just 8%. The results are similar to a March poll against a slightly different field that put Lamb at 49%.

Lamb ran for the Senate last year but lost the Republican nomination to Kari Lake by a 55-40 margin. The conservative 5th District, a slice of the Phoenix suburbs that went for Donald Trump by a 59-39 margin last year, is open because GOP Rep. Andy Biggs is running for governor.

IL-08

State Sen. Cristina Castro, who'd reportedly been considering a bid for Illinois' open 8th Congressional District, announced on Friday that she'd take a pass on the crowded Democratic primary and would seek reelection instead. Five notable Democrats have already joined the race to succeed Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who is running for Senate.

NJ-07

Former Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski tells Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin he has "no plans" to wage a comeback bid for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, a seat he held for two terms before narrowly losing reelection in 2022.

However, adds Rubashkin, there's speculation that Malinowski could run for the solidly blue 11th District instead, should Rep. Mikie Sherrill win the race for governor this fall. The ex-congressman is now the Democratic chair in Hunterdon County, which is located entirely in the 7th.

Attorneys General

VA-AG

Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor debuted her first negative ad targeting former Del. Jay Jones on Friday, a move that came just days after Jones' allies began airing commercials attacking her. Taylor and Jones are competing in the June 17 Democratic primary to take on Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares.

Taylor's narrator argues that Jones is "trying to hide the fact that he's never prosecuted a case." The ad goes on to feature law enforcement officials praising Taylor's record as a prosecutor and touting her as the best choice to stand up to Donald Trump. The spot does not mention Miyares, who has no intraparty opposition.

Morning Digest: Don't sleep on these two major races happening in Virginia this year

Ballot Measures

MT Ballot

Activists in Montana have launched a campaign to amend the state constitution to ensure that judicial elections will remain nonpartisan, following a barrage of unsuccessful attempts this year by Republican lawmakers seeking to transform such contests into partisan affairs.

Currently, candidates in judicial races, including those for the state Supreme Court, run without party labels. Changing that system would likely benefit conservative candidates, given Montana's Republican lean.

The absence of such labels has helped the Supreme Court remain an independent body that's regularly clamped down on Republican power grabs. But even the court's conservative chief justice, who was elected last year with GOP support, told legislators earlier this year that "the judiciary should remain nonpartisan despite the almost irresistible pull of partisan spending and messaging in these highly contested campaigns."

Republicans will still have the chance to push the court further to the right next year, though, when a seat held by a retiring moderate justice will be on the ballot.

Morning Digest, sponsored by Campaign Hub: Montana's Supreme Court will be a top battleground—again

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

Seven weeks after saying former Gov. Andrew Cuomo's "mental acuity is in decline," state Sen. Jessica Ramos endorsed Cuomo in the June 24 Democratic primary for mayor.

Ramos, who first won office in 2018 by unseating a member of the Cuomo-backed Independent Democratic Conference that helped Republicans maintain power in the state Senate, said she would remain in the race.

Ramos, who called on Cuomo to resign in 2021 following sexual misconduct allegations by multiple women, hugged the ex-governor at a campaign rally on Friday announcing her endorsement.

Ramos, who told Politico on Wednesday, "I wish I lived in a city where voters cared about women getting harassed," praised Cuomo at the event as the only candidate with "the experience and toughness and the knowledge to lead New York through what's about to come."

Cuomo, the frontrunner in every poll, did not return the endorsement, saying after the rally, "She is endorsing me. I am not endorsing her." (Primary voters can support up to five candidates under the city's ranked-choice system.)

Ramos, whose campaign has been mired in the single digits in the polls, immediately lost endorsements from a host of progressive organizations and politicians following her decision to side with Cuomo.

The reasons for Ramos' about-face are unknown, but Politico's Jeff Coltin reported that insiders "began speculating that Ramos' endorsement may have been motivated by a desire to tap into Cuomo's deep-pocketed donor base." Due to weak fundraising, Ramos failed to qualify for public matching funds, and Coltin reports her campaign is more than $250,000 in debt.

Meanwhile, a pro-Cuomo super PAC called Fix the City has gone up with its first TV ad attacking his top rival, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, claiming that he's "promising to defund and dismantle the police."