Morning Digest: Why Democrats worry they might lose Texas' second-biggest city

San Antonio leans blue, but the GOP is eager for Saturday's election

Gina Ortiz Jones, Democratic candidate for mayor of San Antonio, TX (credit: Gina Ortiz Jones campaign)

Leading Off

San Antonio, TX Mayor

San Antonio is normally a blue-leaning town, but Texas Democrats fear that their candidate could lose Saturday's officially nonpartisan election to serve as the city's next mayor.

That battle pits Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, a former Biden administration official, against Republican Rolando Pablos, who once served as Texas' secretary of state.

Jones, who lost two competitive races for the 23rd Congressional District in 2018 and 2020, appeared to be the frontrunner to lead America's seventh-largest city following the first round of voting last month.

In that contest, Jones outpaced Pablos 27-17 in the 27-person field, with much of the balance going to Democratic-aligned candidates. All told, candidates aligned with the Democratic Party took 69% of the vote while those "vetted" by the Bexar County Republican Party combined for just 28% (the remaining 3% went to minor candidates with no discernible affiliation).

Many prominent local Democrats, however, have been reluctant to embrace their standard-bearer. While Jones has the support of figures like former Mayor Julian Castro and Rep. Greg Casar, termed-out Mayor Ron Nirenberg has declined to take sides. Most of the defeated candidates from the first round have also remained conspicuously neutral in the showdown between Jones and Pablos.

The lone public poll of the runoff, released on Thursday by the Democratic firm Chism Strategies, simultaneously offered hope and flashed warning signs for Jones. The survey found Jones ahead 50-41, but among those who said they'd already voted, Jones was up just 49-47. Early voters, says the pollster, "were significantly more Republican" in the second round compared to the first, making it harder for Jones to make up ground on Election Day, when the electorate tends to lean to the right.

What accounts for Jones' weakness? Andrea Drusch writes in the San Antonio Report that many local power players believe that the Democrat, who is relatively new to city politics, would represent an unwelcome change. These skeptics have a better relationship with Pablos, a longtime businessman who is much more of a known quantity.

Jones' allies at the Stonewall Democrats have responded by highlighting that Jones would be the city's first LGBTQ mayor in an open letter asking whether Nirenberg and other Democratic politicians are "truly comfortable sitting out this race while a candidate with MAGA-aligned values moves forward unchecked."

The missive, though, did not have its desired effect. City Councilman John Courage, who took 6% last month, responded by saying that Jones "has zero personality to get elected." Jones herself acknowledged to the San Antonio Express-News that Pablos has sought to portray her as aloof and hostile as she joked about her "resting bitch face."

Pablos has also attacked Jones, who is of Filipino ancestry, for using her middle name, a tactic that Republicans used against her during her congressional campaigns.

The Republican has run ads telling Jones to "drop it—you're not Latina," accusing her of adding "Ortiz to your name ... to make us think you're one of us." Pablos, who was born in Mexico, called for San Antonians to "vote for the real thing." (Almost two-thirds of city residents identify as Hispanic or Latino.)

Jones' campaign responded with text messages asking, "Has Rolando Pablos been sending you racist texts? Yeah, me too." When asked by the Express-News to explain why Pablos' message was racist, Jones declined to elaborate, saying, "Do you not think it's racist?"

Jones has hit back by connecting Pablos both to Donald Trump, who earned just 41% of the vote in San Antonio last year, and to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who appointed Pablos secretary of state in 2017. (The job is not an elected office in Texas.) But while the Republican spent the first round of the race trying to downplay his partisan ties, he's been all too happy to highlight those connections during the general election.

"She's trying to tie Greg Abbott around my neck, saying how I'm Greg Abbott's puppet," Pablos told a friendly crowd. "All of these things are just helping my base."

Pablos has also emphasized that Republicans could elect one of their own as mayor for the first time since 1995, calling on them to "take this city back" and "combat the virus that is at City Hall."

GOP donors and outside groups are also doing their part to score a win. Drusch reported over the weekend that Pablos had outraised and outspent Jones going into the general election. The Republican has also benefited from heavy spending from both a super PAC linked to Abbott and the San Antonio Police Officers Association, while pro-Jones groups have deployed considerably less.

Whoever wins will take over an office that has relatively little power but plenty of visibility. Castro, notably, became a star among both state and national Democrats following his 2009 victory in the city's last open-seat mayoral contest. He later resigned in 2014 to become secretary of Housing and Urban Development under Barack Obama, and he remains influential years after his unsuccessful 2020 presidential bid.

A victory for Jones could likewise make her one of the most prominent Democrats in a red state where the party is always in need of fresh talent. A win for Pablos, meanwhile, would make him one of the most high-profile Latino officeholders in Texas and set him up to become an in-demand national GOP surrogate.

The definitive report on 2024

Governors

FL-Gov

Former Rep. David Jolly, a Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat, announced Thursday that he'd seek the Democratic nomination for governor of Florida. Jolly, who officially registered as a Democrat in April, is his new party's first—and potentially last—notable candidate.

Jolly has moved left as this longtime swing state has swung hard to the right, but the former Republican argued that voters would be receptive to his message.

"Right now, in Florida, the affordability crisis is a lived experience; the crisis in education is a lived experience, " he told News4JAX. "I disagree with the culture wars of the last six years."

Jolly, who served as an aide to longtime GOP Rep. Bill Young before working as a lobbyist, attracted widespread attention in 2014 when he was the Republican nominee in the special election that followed Young's death. But while Republicans celebrated Jolly's tight victory in the St. Petersburg-based 13th District, party leaders were far from happy with how he'd conducted himself.

A Politico piece published shortly before Election Day detailed how Republicans believed Jolly was running "a Keystone Cops operation, marked by inept fundraising." Republicans would soon make a habit of preemptively trashing their own House candidates ahead of special elections, though they were rarely as vicious as they were to Jolly.

The new congressman's prospects of staying in office took a big hit the next cycle when the Florida Supreme Court ordered changes to the House map that made the 13th District considerably more Democratic. Jolly, however, stuck around to defend his seat against former Gov. Charlie Crist, who had already completed his own transformation from Republican to independent to Democrat.

But while Jolly gave Republicans at least an outside shot to defend the 13th, he'd already alienated the few friends he still had in the GOP. The congressman infuriated the National Republican Congressional Committee when he starred in a "60 Minutes" piece on campaign fundraising, including details about how representatives were directed to make calls from what Jolly called "a cult-like boiler room on Capitol Hill."

The NRCC accused Jolly of lying and spent nothing to defend him as Crist and Democratic outside groups massively outspent the abandoned congressman. Despite all these advantages, Crist won by just a 52-48 margin, but national Republicans didn't seem to care that they'd sacrificed what turned out to be a potentially winnable seat.

Jolly soon became an MSNBC contributor and ardent Donald Trump critic and announced in 2018 that he was leaving the GOP to become an independent. But while the former congressman would flirt with running for governor without a party affiliation in 2022, he's now decided to seek that office as a Democrat.

Jolly launched his campaign a few weeks after state Sen. Jason Pizzo made the opposite move and left the Democratic Party to run for governor as an independent. Republican Rep. Byron Donalds, meanwhile, has the GOP primary to himself as he runs to replace Gov. Ron DeSantis, who cannot seek a third term.

OK-Gov

A Republican pollster once again finds Attorney General Gentner Drummond with a wide lead in next year's Republican primary in the race for Oklahoma's open governorship.

Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates, which regularly releases data on its home state, shows Drummond with a 39-12 advantage over state Superintendent Ryan Walters, with Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell at 10%. Former state House Speaker Charles McCall takes 5%, while former state cabinet official Chip Keating and former state Sen. Mike Mazzei trail still further.

The poll, which was conducted in early May but released this week, is the first survey we've seen since February, when the same firm also showed Drummond far ahead of Walters. The attorney general, however, remains below the majority of the vote needed to avert a runoff.

Drummond, McCall, and Mazzei are currently the only Republicans who have announced that they're running to replace GOP Gov. Kevin Stitt, who cannot seek a third term. Walters has pledged to make a decision sometime in the summer, while Pinnell and Keating don't appear to have said anything publicly about their plans.

State House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson has the Democratic side to herself as she campaigns to lead this dark red state.

Morning Digest, sponsored by 314 Action: Oklahoma Republican who fought state funding for religious school launches bid for governor

House

CO-08

Amie Baca-Oehler, who stepped down last year as head of Colorado's largest teachers union, joined the crowded Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Gabe Evans in the 8th District on Thursday.

The Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul also reports that Marine veteran Evan Munsing is "expected" to seek the Democratic nomination as well. Four notable Democrats are already running, while several others remain in the mix.

NE-02

Former Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, who came up just short against Republican Rep. Don Bacon twice in a row, has endorsed political strategist Denise Powell in next year's Democratic primary for Nebraska's 2nd District.

Powell had been the most prominent Democrat seeking to take on Bacon until just this week, when a one-time Vargas colleague, state Sen. John Cavanaugh, joined the race for this blue-tilting seat.

Morning Digest: Well-known Nebraska Democrat joins race to take on Don Bacon

NH-01

Democratic state Rep. Alice Wade, who would be the second trans member of Congress, says she's exploring a bid for New Hampshire's open 1st Congressional District, which is open because Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is running for Senate.

If Wade, 23, were to take over for Pappas, who is gay, it would be just the second time one LGBTQ candidate succeeded another in representing a U.S. House seat. The first occasion came in 2012 in Wisconsin, when Mark Pocan, who is gay, replaced Tammy Baldwin, a lesbian, in the 2nd District.

Also joining the Democratic primary is Carleigh Beriont, a member of the town council in Hampton, who said upon entering the race, "I'm running for Congress because why not? Regular people deserve a seat at the table, too."

NY-17

Tech company CEO Peter Chatzky, a former mayor of the small village of Briarcliff Manor, jumped into the extremely busy Democratic primary for New York's 17th District on Thursday.

Half a dozen other candidates are also vying for the right to take on Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who has said he'll decide on whether to run for governor sometime this month. One notable name, though, is sitting out the race: Former New York Police Department officer Brandon Del Pozo, who now researches public safety as a professor at Brown, says he won't run.

PA-08

Former Rep. Matt Cartwright confirmed Thursday that he won't seek a rematch against Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, an announcement that came two days after Punchbowl News reported that Cartwright wouldn't run to reclaim the 8th District.

His decision means that Democrats will need to keep looking for a candidate to take on Bresnahan in a northeastern Pennsylvania constituency that, according to calculations by The Downballot, favored Donald Trump 54-45 last year. Several local elected officials, however, have already shown some interest despite the district's lean.

Pittston Mayor Michael Lombardo was the most public with his deliberations, telling WVIA he'd use the next week for "some additional discussions, including discussions with others who potentially could be running for this seat."

The Times-Tribune separately reported that both state Rep. Bridget Kosierowski and state Sen. Marty Flynn are considering. Kosierowski didn't reject the idea, saying in a statement that she would "keep listening and considering where I can make the greatest impact." Flynn, however, has yet to publicly say anything about his plans.

Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, for her part, didn't directly rule out the idea, saying, "I'm running for mayor of Scranton." Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin suggested earlier this week that Democrats could try to recruit Cognetti, who is up for reelection this November.

Lackawanna County Commissioner Bill Gaughan, however, said he would not run for Congress.

TX-18

Democratic state Rep. Jolanda Jones announced Thursday that she would compete in the Nov. 4 all-party special election to succeed the late Rep. Sylvester Turner in the 18th District, a safely blue seat based in Houston.

Jones, a track and field champion who competed on "Survivor," made history in 2022 when she became the first openly gay Black person to serve in the Texas legislature.

The next year, however, all three of her staffers resigned and accused her of fostering an "abusive and hostile" environment. The trio claimed in a leaked resignation letter that, among other things, Jones had pressured them to remain quiet about an "inappropriate relationship" between her son and an intern.

The matter didn't prevent Jones, who said she was unable to address personnel matters publicly, from winning renomination without opposition ahead of an easy general election. The Houston Chronicle said this week that there's no word whether the House ever investigated the allegations.

VA-01

Chesterfield Circuit Court Clerk Amanda Pohl said Thursday that she would challenge Republican Rep. Rob Wittman in Virginia's 1st District. Pohl, who is the first Democrat in the race, began her campaign days after the Virginia Scope reported she was getting ready to run.

This constituency, as we wrote earlier this week, backed Donald Trump 52-47 after favoring him by a slightly wider spread in 2020, which makes it the only one of Virginia's 11 congressional districts that saw Trump's performance dip between his last two elections.

VA-11

Local Democratic leaders in Virginia's 11th District voted Tuesday to hold a party-run "firehouse primary" on June 28 to select their nominee for the Sept. 9 special election.

A proposal to conduct the primary via ranked-choice voting was defeated, with political consultant Ben Tribbett saying that supporters of Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw lined up against the plan. As a result, whoever wins a plurality of the vote will be favored to prevail in the general election to replace the late Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly.

The large Democratic field also expanded again Thursday when national security expert and former CIA officer Amy Papanu announced her campaign. Papanu joins Walkinshaw and seven other candidates in competing in this small-scale nominating contest, which features fewer polling sites and shorter voting hours than a traditional state-run primary.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani earned one of the most coveted endorsements in New York City politics on Thursday when Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez encouraged voters to rank him first in the June 24 Democratic primary.

The congresswoman also said she'd vote for City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, City Comptroller Brad Lander, former City Comptroller Scott Stringer, and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie, in that order. (Primary voters can rank up to five candidates, with a winner chosen through an instant runoff.)

Adams also scored an endorsement from Rep. Yvette Clarke, who chairs the Congressional Black Caucus and represents a large swath of Brooklyn. Clarke said she'd rank Adams first but did not indicate any further preferences.