Morning Digest: Well-known Nebraska Democrat joins race to take on Don Bacon

The GOP incumbent sits in the bluest House seat held by a Republican

Nebraska state Sen. John Cavanaugh, Democratic candidate for Congress (credit: John Cavanaugh campaign)

Leading Off

NE-02

Democratic state Sen. John Cavanaugh announced on Wednesday that he would challenge Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon in the Omaha-based 2nd District, the bluest House seat in the nation held by a Republican.

Cavanaugh hails from a prominent local political family: His father and namesake represented the 2nd District from 1977 to 1981, while his sister, Machaela Cavanaugh, serves with him in the state's unique unicameral legislature.

Cavanaugh kicked off his campaign a month after businesswoman Denise Powell, the founder of an organization aimed at helping women candidates, became the first notable Democrat to join the race. Ophthalmologist Mark Johnston also entered the fray in May, though his announcement didn't generate much attention.

Bacon, however, has yet to say if he'll seek a sixth term. The congressman told NOTUS in April that he would make up his mind "in late summer." The publication reported at the time that Bacon had "been seriously thinking about retiring," and there's been no new information about his deliberations.

Democrats would be thrilled if Bacon, a retired Air Force brigadier general who has a history of winning competitive races, decides he's done with Congress. The incumbent held on 51-49 last year as Kamala Harris was carrying his constituency 52-47.

Bacon's tight victory also made him one of just three House Republicans to prevail in a district that voted for Harris, according to calculations by The Downballot. The other two are New York's Mike Lawler and Pennsylvania's Brian Fitzpatrick.

Democrats, though, are sure to target this constituency again, no matter what Bacon decides to do. And they have reason to feel good about their chances: Democrats scored a major victory last month when John Ewing decisively unseated Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert, a Republican who had led Nebraska's largest city since 2013, in a 57-43 landslide.

Democrats just flipped Nebraska's biggest city

Cavanaugh highlighted Ewing's win, as well as the 2nd District's recent history of giving its electoral vote to Democratic presidential nominees, in announcing his bid. (Maine is the only other state that doesn't award all of its electoral votes to the statewide winner.) He told the Omaha World-Herald, "There's a lot of energy and excitement about getting a congressional representative who represents the 'blue dot.'"

Despite that nickname, though, House Democrats have had a challenging time winning the 2nd District. The GOP flipped a previous incarnation of this constituency during the 1994 Republican wave, and they've only lost it once over the ensuing three decades. (Republican-turned-Democrat Brad Ashford unseated GOP Rep. Lee Terry in 2014, but Bacon defeated him two years later.)

Cavanaugh, however, is arguing that Bacon, who almost always votes with Donald Trump even when he makes a show of criticizing him, can't evade his party's leader anymore.

"The people in are looking for a change in their leadership," Cavanaugh said Wednesday. "They don't support President Trump, and they would like to be represented by someone in Congress who actually votes their values."

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Governors

IA-Gov

Republican state Rep. Eddie Andrews announced Wednesday that he would run for Iowa's open governorship.

Andrews would be the state's first Black chief executive if he wins the race to succeed Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is not seeking reelection. But Andrews, who argued his new campaign will show that candidates don't need massive amounts of money to win, first needs to get past better-known opponents who do have plenty of cash at their disposal.

RI-Gov

A spokesperson for former CVS executive Helena Foulkes finally dismissed talk that she might run for governor as an independent, a statement that came almost five months after the would-be candidate declined to rule out the idea.

Foulkes has yet to formally join the race, but her team told Rhode Island's NPR affiliate that "Helena is gearing up towards a final decision," adding, "Anything she announces will be as a Democrat."

Gov. Dan McKee, who narrowly defeated Foulkes in the 2022 primary, is also getting ready for their long-awaited rematch despite lingering speculation he could step aside. The governor once again said he was running for reelection this week as he announced the hiring of a new campaign manager and finance director.

McKee rolled out those hires days after the University of New Hampshire found him with a terrible 19-71 approval rating. On Tuesday, the governor told reporters that the survey was merely "an outlying poll," though he did not provide contradictory numbers.

SC-Gov

Republican Rep. Ralph Norman told Punchbowl News on Wednesday that he'll reveal in the next two to three weeks whether he'll run for governor of South Carolina. No major candidates have entered the race to succeed Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, who is termed out, though several other big names are eyeing the contest.

House

CO-08

State Treasurer Dave Young on Wednesday entered the busy Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Gabe Evans in Colorado's swingy 8th District.

Young, 72, kicked off his campaign at a time when many Democrats have grown increasingly concerned about the party's elderly House caucus. Young would be one of the oldest freshmen to ever serve in the House and would be 76 at the end of his first term.

But Young, the only statewide elected official in the race, argued that his electoral experience makes him the strongest option for Democrats. The treasurer also highlighted the fact that he's the only Democratic candidate who lives in conservative Weld County to make his case that he's the one "best positioned to win this seat back."

KY-06

Democrat David Kloiber, a former member of Lexington's governing body, announced Wednesday that he would run to flip Kentucky's open 6th District. This conservative constituency in the central part of the state is held by Republican Rep. Andy Barr, who is leaving to run for the Senate.

Kloiber made a similar decision in 2022 when he gave up his office to challenge Lexington Mayor Linda Gorton, a Republican who has played down her party affiliation in this Democratic-leaning city. But even though Kloiber, who hails from a wealthy family, self-funded more than $600,000, Gorton won their officially nonpartisan bout in a 71-29 landslide.

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Kloiber, who now runs a nonprofit, joins former state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson in the Democratic primary. State Rep. Ryan Dotson is currently the only notable Republican in the race, though several local politicians are considering whether to run.

Calculations by The Downballot show that the 6th District backed Donald Trump 57-42 last year, though Gov. Andy Beshear carried it by an even wider 60-40 margin during his successful reelection campaign in 2023.

VA-11

Democratic Del. Dan Helmer said Wednesday that he would not run to succeed the late Rep. Gerry Connolly in the special election for Virginia's 11th Congressional District. At least eight notable Democrats are already running.

Attorneys General

VA-AG

The well-funded environmental group Clean Virginia has debuted the first negative TV ad in the June 17 Democratic primary for attorney general, and it goes after Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor for accepting contributions from the utility giant Dominion Energy.

"They pollute our air and water, hurting our health and climate, while Shannon Taylor cashes their checks," says the narrator. "Virginia families need an attorney general who’ll stand up to corporate polluters."

The voice-over does not, however, mention former Del. Jay Jones, who has Clean Virginia's endorsement in the primary and authorized the commercial. The group says this ad is "part of a six-figure ad buy," though it did not provide more details about how much it's spending.

Taylor and Jones are competing for the right to face Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares, who has no intraparty opposition.

Morning Digest: Don't sleep on these two major races happening in Virginia this year

Mayors & County Leaders

Buffalo, NY Mayor

Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz, who is one of the most prominent elected officials in the Buffalo area, has endorsed state Sen. Sean Ryan ahead of the June 24 Democratic primary for mayor. Ryan has emerged as acting Mayor Christopher Scanlon's main intraparty opponent in a contest that could continue well past the primary.

Scanlon recently submitted paperwork to form a new party so that he can appear on the November ballot, whether or not he wins later this month. Ryan previously earned the support of the progressive Working Families Party, which also assures him of a spot in the general election.

Asked at a press conference about his plans should he fall short against Scanlon, Ryan said, "I don't have any intentions of continuing the election if I lose the primary," which wasn't a definitive no.