Morning Digest: John Cornyn explains why he's losing—and it's extremely unconvincing

If there are any polls that have him ahead, he's not sharing

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (back left) (credit: John Cornyn Facebook)

Leading Off

TX-Sen

As yet another poll shows Texas Sen. John Cornyn trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton in next year's Republican primary, the incumbent is acknowledging that he is indeed behind—but his diagnosis of the problem may be a bit lacking.

Cornyn's latest dose of bad news comes from a survey conducted by the GOP firm UpOne Insights, which finds Paxton decisively defeating Cornyn 50-28.

The group that sponsored the poll, a pro-"school choice" outfit called the Educational Freedom Institute, hasn't expressly taken sides in the contest, though its head, Corey DeAngelis, described the result as a "blowout" in a social media post. Last year, DeAngelis was placed on leave by a different conservative organization after gay pornographic videos of him surfaced.

Whatever the motivations behind the release of this survey, which was first shared by Punchbowl News, it's just the latest in a string of polls placing Paxton far ahead of Cornyn. No one has released any data giving the senator any kind of advantage, and in a new interview, Cornyn all but acknowledged that no such polls exist.

The senator, however, insisted to WFAA's Jason Whitely that he could still turn things around. When Whitely asked Cornyn why he believed polls showed him losing to Paxton "by almost 10 points," the incumbent responded, "I think it's primarily name identification." He continued, "Most people don't wake up in the morning thinking about who their United States senator is."

But UpOne's poll, which was released just two days after that interview, found that most Lone Star Republicans are fully aware who their senior senator is—they just don't like him all that much.

Cornyn, who was first elected in 2002, posts an underwhelming 48-37 favorable rating, compared to 65-22 for Paxton. Punchbowl also notes that just 7% of respondents didn't have an opinion of Cornyn, a proportion little different from the 5% who are undecided about Paxton.

The incumbent nonetheless indicated he believes that he can survive the primary by focusing on Paxton and the many scandals that have followed him throughout his decade-long tenure as attorney general.

"I think character still matters to Texans," Cornyn told Whitely. "And the attorney general is betting that character does not matter. He acts like this is yesterday's news, he's sweeping it under the rug. But I think most Texans, including most primary voters, don't know all the facts, and we intend to make sure they do."

UpOne did not test a three-way primary matchup involving Rep. Wesley Hunt, who continues to keep everyone guessing about his plans. Texas requires candidates to win a majority of the vote to avert a runoff, so Hunt's presence on the ballot would make a second round of voting more likely.

We always delve deep into the weeds to understand the true motivations of political actors, which is why we were skeptical when other outlets described the poll above as “independent.” Turns out, there’s a lot more to the story—including a shocking turn that no one else who wrote about the poll saw fit to mention. If you value our turn-every-page approach to elections coverage, please consider supporting The Downballot as a paid subscriber today:

The GOP war on direct democracy

Election Recaps

Democrat Keishan Scott, a 24-year-old minister and local elected official, won Tuesday's special election for the South Carolina House in a 71-29 landslide, turning in one of the largest overperformances of the year.

We blasted out a breaking news alert on Tuesday night recapping all the key details of this giant win for Democrats.

Senate

IL-Sen

Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias tells political reporter Rich Miller that he'll seek reelection next year rather than enter the Democratic primary for Illinois' open Senate seat, though he didn't dismiss talk he could run for mayor of Chicago in 2027.

Governors

GA-Gov

State Rep. Derrick Jackson says that he'll enter next year's race for Georgia's open governorship, making him the third notable Democrat in the contest.

In an interview with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Jackson touted his service in the Navy and his work with General Electric in addition to his time in elected office, arguing, "[W]e don’t have both Democratic and Republican [candidates] with that kind of resume."

Jackson, who was first elected to the state House in 2016, ran for lieutenant governor in 2022 but took sixth place in the primary. He reclaimed his old seat the next year after narrowly beating a fellow Democrat in the special election to replace Tish Naghise, who died just a few months after she was sworn in to succeed Jackson.

Jackson joins state Sen. Jason Esteves and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in the primary for the office held by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who by law cannot seek a third term next year. Former DeKalb County Chief Executive Michael Thurmond is also considering seeking the Democratic nomination, while former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams hasn't ruled out a third campaign for governor.

IA-Gov

Julie Stauch, a longtime operative in Iowa Democratic politics, announced Tuesday that she'd run for governor. Stauch, who has not run for office before, faces a difficult primary against state Auditor Rob Sand, the only Iowa Democrat to hold a position elected statewide.

NM-Gov

Former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti, who was the GOP's nominee for governor of New Mexico in 2022, recently said on his podcast that he wasn't saying no to another bid.

In that prior race, Ronchetti failed to unseat Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham 52-46. Two years earlier, he lost an open Senate contest to then-Rep. Ben Ray Lujan by that same margin.

Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull is currently the only notable Republican running to succeed Lujan Grisham, who is termed out, but not everyone is convinced he'll appear on the ballot.

Hull was set to hold a campaign kickoff on Monday, but instead, he announced that day that he was postponing the event. His campaign said it would "hold off on the official launch so we can keep the focus on building strong support, organizing, and fundraising for the road ahead," but it did not schedule a new date.

While Hull's people insisted they were "not slowing down—we’re doubling down," longtime political observer Joe Monahan isn't so sure. Monahan writes that the mayor, who doesn't have strong statewide name recognition, could still seek reelection to his current post next year, but only if he backtracks in time.

WI-Gov

Wealthy businessman Eric Hovde is "in talks" about a potential job in the Trump administration, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports, but he apparently hasn't ruled out a bid for office in Wisconsin.

Rather, an unnamed source tells reporter Lawrence Andrea that Hovde, despite his reported interest in working for the White House, has also "suggested he’s still weighing a run" against Democratic Gov. Tony Evers.

Hovde, who narrowly failed to unseat Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin last year, has yet to publicly discuss his future. Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann is the only notable Republican who has announced a campaign for governor, though several others are publicly or privately looking at running.

Evers, for his part, has repeatedly said that he won't reveal if he'll seek a third term until the state's biennial budget is finalized. The governor and both chambers of the GOP-led legislature are continuing to negotiate, but no one knows if the process will wrap up by the time the new fiscal year starts on July 1.

House

IL-08

Businessman Junaid Ahmed announced Tuesday that he was joining the busy primary to replace Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, a fellow Illinois Democrat who is running for the Senate.

Ahmed challenged Krishnamoorthi for renomination in 2022, portraying himself as a progressive alternative to the congressman. Even though Ahmed raised over $1 million for his previous campaign, his haul was still dwarfed by Krishnamoorthi's massive financial advantage, and he went down to a 70-30 defeat.

State Rep. Anna Moeller, meanwhile, says she'll remain in the legislature rather than enter the Democratic primary for the reliably blue 8th Congressional District.

PA-08

Former Rep. Matt Cartwright will announce on Thursday that he's decided not to seek a rematch against Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, Punchbowl News reports. Last year, Cartwright narrowly lost reelection to Bresnahan 51-49 as Donald Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot, carried Pennsylvania's 8th District by a wide 54-45 margin.

Democrats, though, are still hoping to field a strong candidate in this northeastern Pennsylvania constituency. Following Punchbowl's report, Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin said that attention would now turn to Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, who leads the largest city in the district (which is also the setting for "The Office").

Last month, Cognetti won the Democratic primary for mayor in a 76-22 landslide, and she's favored to win the general election this fall. She does not appear to have publicly expressed interest in running for Congress.

VA-11

Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin has scheduled the special election to replace Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly, who died last month, for Sept. 9. Candidates have until July 11 to file to run for the reliably blue 11th District, which is based in Fairfax County.

Two more Democrats also announced Tuesday that they would join the special election. Del. Irene Shin, who is 37, kicked off her campaign by emphasizing "generational change." (Connolly was 75 at his death.) Dan Lee, an executive at a healthcare technology company, is likewise pitching himself as an outsider.

Shin and Lee are both the children of Korean immigrants, and either would be the first Korean American to represent Virginia in Congress. Six fellow Democrats were already running before Youngkin issued his proclamation, and the field could expand further still.

How Democrats will winnow that large field, however, remains to be seen, though FFX Now reported last month that Fairfax County Democrats were preparing to hold a so-called firehouse primary.

Under this approach, which is seldom used outside of Virginia, political parties—rather than the state—organized a small-scale nominating contest. Compared to traditional primaries, firehouse primaries feature fewer polling sites and shorter voting hours, which invariably leads to lower turnout and can therefore favor well-connected insiders. They can, however, be conducted more quickly than a standard primary.

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WA-09

Former Seattle City Councilmember Kshama Sawant, who was one of the most prominent self-identified socialists in elected office anywhere in the country for a decade, announced Monday that she would oppose Democratic Rep. Adam Smith in next year's top-two primary.

Sawant, who backed the Green Party in last year's presidential election, identified herself as an independent in paperwork filed with the Federal Election Commission. Washington's 9th District, which includes many of Seattle's suburbs and a portion of the city, favored Kamala Harris 69-28.

Sawant made national headlines when she first won an at-large seat on the City Council in 2013, then twice won reelection and narrowly survived a recall attempt in 2021. In 2023, she said she would not run again.

Smith, who was first elected in 1996, has faced left-wing Democratic opponents in the past, including occasionally in the general election. Such a matchup occurred last year when the congressman outpaced a fellow Democrat 65-32

Attorneys General

GA-AG

Republican state Sen. Brian Strickland announced Tuesday that he'd run for attorney general of Georgia, a declaration that came two months after he started raising money for his planned effort.

Strickland joins fellow state Sen. Bill Cowsert in the primary to replace Attorney General Chris Carr, a Republican who is giving up this office to run for governor. Democrats are awaiting their first candidate for an office the GOP has held since winning the 2010 elections.

Mayors & County Leaders

Detroit, MI Mayor

Detroit City Council President Mary Sheffield is poised to easily advance out of the Aug. 5 nonpartisan primary for mayor as several candidates compete for the other spot in the Nov. 4 general election, according to a new poll.

Sheffield takes first with 38%, according to the Glengariff Group survey for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV. Pastor Solomon Kinloch is in second with 14%, with former police Chief James Craig and former City Council President Saunteel Jenkins not far behind with 9% and 8%, respectively. Attorney Todd Perkins takes 4%, while four other contenders are at 2% or less. Other polling has painted a similar picture.

New Orleans, LA Mayor

A new poll shows City Councilwoman Helena Moreno taking 52% in the Oct. 11 contest for mayor of New Orleans, which is just above the majority of the vote she'd need to avert a second round of voting on Nov. 15.

City Councilman Oliver Thomas is in second with 23%, while former Judge Arthur Hunter takes 11%. This post is held by termed-out Mayor LaToya Cantrell, who, like all three of her would-be successors, is a Democrat.

The poll, which is the first we've seen since the field took shape, was conducted by the Republican firm JMC Analytics. The pollster says that, while it has polled in the past for a pro-Moreno group, its new survey was prepared for "a PAC not affiliated with a candidate."

In our last Digest, we incorrectly identified the school attended by South Carolina state Rep. Jermaine Johnson. It was the College of Charleston, not the University of Charleston.