Iowa state Auditor Rob Sand (left), Democratic candidate for governor (credit: Rob Sand campaign Facebook)
Leading Off
IA-Gov
State Auditor Rob Sand announced on Monday that he would seek the Democratic nomination for governor of Iowa, a long-anticipated development that gives his party a major candidate in what's become a conservative state.
Sand launched his campaign to flip this post just hours before CBS reported that Rep. Randy Feenstra had also decided to run to succeed retiring Gov. Kim Reynolds, a fellow Republican, and plans to announce "as soon as this week." Feenstra, who represents by far the most Republican of Iowa's four congressional districts, filed paperwork with the state later on Monday for a potential gubernatorial campaign.
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While Feenstra had seemed content to remain in the House before Reynolds stunned the state last month when she announced she wouldn't run again, Democrats have speculated about Sand's next move for some time.
Sand, who worked for the state attorney general's office prosecuting public corruption, rose to prominence in 2018 when he unseated Republican Auditor Mary Mosiman 51-46. That victory came on the same night that Reynolds, who was elevated from lieutenant governor to the top job the previous year, narrowly won her first full term.
Sand, though, faced a far tougher political climate in 2022. With Reynolds on track to win reelection in a landslide, the GOP was determined to unseat every vulnerable Democrat who still held office in this former swing state.
Republicans wound up getting almost everything they wanted, catching the red wave that so many of their fellow travelers elsewhere had waited for in vain. Two 10-term Democratic incumbents, Attorney General Tom Miller and Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, fell to challengers, while Zach Nunn's victory over Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne left Republicans holding every seat in the state's congressional delegation.
Sand, though, managed to emerge from the devastation with a razor-tight 50.1-49.9 win. The GOP supermajority in the legislature, unhappy with its near-total domination of the state, soon began passing laws to weaken the auditor's powers.
Despite Iowa's shift to the right, Democrats believe they have a shot at flipping the governor's office due to the worsening political environment for the GOP. Most notably, in a trio of special elections for the Iowa legislature this year, Democrats have turned in the three biggest overperformances anywhere in the country.
Sand used his kickoff video on Monday to tout his record in office before continuing, "Politicians in Des Moines responded to us finding all that waste, fraud, and abuse by making it harder for us to find it in the future." He told his audience, "You got higher costs [and] an economy that the Trump administration says is 49th in the country. They serve special interests and insiders."
Sand, who finished last year with $7.5 million in the bank thanks mostly to donations from wealthy family members, will likely be able to conserve his resources for the general election in a state that Donald Trump easily carried three times. The only notable Democrat who has expressed interest in taking him on is Julie Stauch, a longtime political operative who does not appear to have run for office before.
Feenstra, though, is set to enter a far more unpredictable GOP primary. Former state Rep. Brad Sherman began running in February before Reynolds delivered her bombshell retirement announcement, while state Sen. Mike Bousselot formed an exploratory committee late last month.
Several other prominent Republicans are also thinking about getting in, and political observers are waiting to see if one of them will earn Trump's backing.
Republican Mayor Jean Stothert and Democrat John Ewing are facing off on Tuesday night in the officially nonpartisan election to lead Omaha, a city that's backed Democrats for president even as it's remained friendly to the GOP further down the ballot.
Stothert, who first won office in 2013 by overwhelmingly unseating Democratic incumbent Jim Suttle, is trying to claim a historic fourth term. Ewing, who serves as Douglas County treasurer, would be Omaha's first Black mayor. No one has released any polls of the race.
Stothert led Ewing by a small 36-33 margin in the first round of voting on April 1, with another 20% going to Democrat-turned-Republican Mike McDonnell. McDonnell, who leads the influential Omaha Federation of Labor, went on to endorse Ewing earlier this month. Stothert, though, has maintained a wide financial advantage.
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Oklahoma Republicans tonight are defending a vacant seat in the state Senate, while Massachusetts Democrats are likewise seeking to hold a seat in the state House.
Oklahoma's 8th Senate District is vacant because Republican Roger Thompson submitted his resignation in June, several weeks after Senate President Pro Tempore Greg Treat removed him as chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations and Budget Committee. This constituency south of Tulsa favored Donald Trump 75-24, according to calculations by The Downballot.
Three contenders are running here. The GOP is fielding Bryan Logan, who is both a pastor and a general contractor. The Democratic nominee, meanwhile, is businessman Nathan Brewer, whose daughter was one of several people murdered in a 2023 incident that made national news.
"What got me into the race was my daughter's death May 1 of '23 by a sex offender," Brewer told NonDoc's Bennett Brinkman, adding that the current state laws are "not protecting the children."
Independent Steve Sanford, a truck driver and restaurant owner who is also a member of the Henryetta City Council, is also on the ballot. Sanford informed Brinkman, "I'm middle of the road," and pledged to "just stay independent and work with everybody."
Republicans currently enjoy a 39-8 supermajority in the 48-seat chamber, but the bitterly divided GOP caucus could be upended further still if Logan wins.
State Sen. Lonnie Paxton, who is part of the party's leadership, last year turned back a more conservative colleague by just one vote in the internal leadership race to succeed the retiring Treat as president pro tempore. (The person who was supposed to get that job, Senate Majority Leader Greg McCortney, lost renomination last year.)
Logan has avoided talking about where he falls when it comes to this divide, though he acknowledged, "Right now, Lonnie Paxton is the pro temp, and that's my plans."
There's considerably less drama up in the race to replace Massachusetts Democrat Jerry Parisella, who gave up his constituency north of Boston after Gov. Maura Healey appointed him to a local judgeship. Essex's 6th District—legislative seats in the Bay State are named for the counties they're located in—backed Kamala Harris 66-32.
The Democratic nominee is Hannah Bowen, a member of the Beverly City Council. Her GOP opponent is Medley Long, who is the former head of the city's Chamber of Commerce. Democrats hold a massive 132-25 edge in a 150-member chamber that includes one independent and one other vacant seat that was last held by a Democrat.
Senate
GA-Sen
John King—Georgia's insurance commissioner, not the CNN guy—said Monday that he would seek the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff next year. King, a former police officer and retired major general in the U.S. Army National Guard, entered the race just days after Rep. Buddy Carter kicked off his own effort.
King, who is originally from Mexico, became the first Latino to hold statewide office in 2019 when Gov. Brian Kemp appointed him to fill a vacancy. The commissioner decisively won renomination three years later over an opponent backed by Donald Trump, though the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says that the party's master may have only gone after King because of his ties to Kemp.
King, who went on to earn a full term 54-46, launched his Senate campaign with videos in both English and Spanish. The candidate, who appears to have filmed his message on a phone, touts his allegiance to Donald Trump and tells the audience, "I’ve led troops in combat, been blown up by an IED in Iraq, and been shot and stabbed in the line of duty as a cop."
Not everyone, though, was impressed by King's kickoff. A GOP operative aligned with Rep. Mike Collins responded by tweeting out a picture of Ossoff campaigning with fellow Sen. Raphael Warnock with the caption, "You're not defeating this with a cell phone hostage video."
Several other Georgia Republicans are also eyeing what could be a busy primary. The AJC writes that state Senate President Pro Tem John F. Kennedy—yes, he goes by that name—"is mentioned often." But Kennedy, whose middle initial stands for "Flanders," has also been talked about as a potential candidate for lieutenant governor.
The AJC also says that Rep. Brian Jack, U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs Doug Collins, and Small Business Administration head Kelly Loeffler all seem "keenly focused on their jobs." None of this trio, however, appears to have publicly ruled out running for higher office.
IL-Sen
Former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, the self-described "Trumpocrat" whom Donald Trump pardoned in February, tells the New York Times' Reid Epstein that he's interested in running for the Senate. Blagojevich, who was the state's Democratic governor in 2008 when he tried to sell Illinois' other Senate seat, said he wasn't sure what party banner he'd run under.
When it comes to the, shall we say, more viable potential Democratic candidates, Epstein relays that a recent poll included Rep. Sean Casten and Chicago Alderman Gilbert Villegas. A spokesperson for Casten said in response that the congressman "does not intend to run right now," which isn't quite a no.
Villegas, for his part, acknowledged, "Unless there is a $50 million check that comes with this, it’s going to be a tough run."
Meanwhile, Rep. Robin Kelly publicized endorsements on Monday from 18 of her colleagues in the Congressional Black Caucus, including fellow Illinois Rep. Jonathan Jackson.
LA-Sen
Gov. Jeff Landry is trying to convince Rep. Julia Letlow to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy in the Republican primary, the Associated Press reports. Last month, Letlow did not rule anything out when NOLA.com asked if she was thinking about opposing Cassidy, who voted to convict Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
ME-Sen
Maine Sen. Susan Collins told CNN this week that she was "preparing to" seek a sixth term, though the 72-year-old Republican held off on confirming her plans.
"I’ve obviously not made a formal announcement because it’s too early for that," Collins said, which is similar to the answer she supplied in November.
Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, meanwhile, would not say whether he was leaning toward running for Senate, governor, or reelection to the House. CNN's story, though, notes that Democrats generally remain skeptical that Golden might take on Collins, whom he once worked for.
MI-Sen
State Rep. Joe Tate announced Sunday that he was entering what's already a busy Democratic primary for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat.
The lawmaker, who served as House speaker for two years after his party unexpectedly flipped the chamber after the 2022 elections, was the first Black person in the state to hold that role, and he would again make history as Michigan's first African American senator.
Tate, who was an offensive lineman at Michigan State University before serving with the Marines in Afghanistan, was first elected in 2018 to represent part of Detroit in the state House.
He later became one of the most powerful politicians in the state after the 2022 elections left Democrats in control of the governorship and legislature for the first time in almost 40 years. Tate and his counterparts in the state Senate made use of their narrow majorities to pass an ambitious agenda that included repealing anti-union "right to work" laws, reversing a 1931 abortion ban, and protecting the rights of LGBTQ people.
But after the GOP retook control of the chamber last year, many Democrats blamed Tate for an unproductive lame-duck session that ended early after Republicans boycotted and the outgoing majority failed to reach an agreement on key issues. Tate's actions have also been at the center of an ongoing legal battle concerning nine bills that passed both chambers but weren't officially sent to Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer while he was still in charge.
Following the 2024 elections, Tate decided not to stay on as minority leader and instead began preparing to enter this year's race for mayor of Detroit. However, while Tate had scheduled a campaign launch for February, he abruptly announced just days earlier the event that he wouldn't run. A few weeks later, Tate began publicly talking about running to succeed Sen. Gary Peters, a fellow Democrat who is not seeking reelection.
Tate joins a busy primary field consisting of state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, and Rep. Haley Stevens. Attorney General Dana Nessel and a few other Democrats had publicly or privately expressed interest in running in the weeks after Peters unexpectedly announced his retirement in January, but none of them appear to have said anything about their plans more recently.
NC-Sen
Former Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump "hasn't ruled out a run" against GOP Sen. Thom Tillis in her native state of North Carolina, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports. But Trump, the daughter-in-law of Donald Trump, has yet to discuss the idea publicly and still identifies herself as a Florida resident on her X profile.
There was intense chatter last year that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis could appoint her to the Senate seat that Marco Rubio was vacating to become secretary of state. Trump, however, announced in December that she would "remove my name from consideration for the United States Senate."
Governors
FL-Gov
State Sen. Jason Pizzo said Friday that he would run for governor as an independent, an announcement that comes not long after Pizzo said he was leaving the Democratic Party. Pizzo, who inherited large sums from his father, also told CBS he was ready to self-fund $25 million.
The Downballot will always provide fearless, accurate coverage of overlooked elections. If you rely on the work we do to stay informed, please consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work today. Thank you!
Venture capitalist Brian Shortsleeve announced Monday that he would seek the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic Gov. Maura Healey. Shortsleeve previously worked for then-GOP Gov. Charlie Baker, who is Healey's immediate predecessor, including as interim general manager of the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority.
Shortsleeve entered the race to lead this blue state one month after Mike Kennealy, who also served in the Baker administration, launched his own campaign. Kennealy showed no interest in averting a nasty GOP primary, though, and attacked his former colleague for having "mismanaged the MBTA and left it in just as big a mess as he found it."
A third Republican, state Sen. Peter Durant, said this week that he won't run.
NJ-Gov
Former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli received Donald Trump's "Complete and Total Endorsement" on Monday for the June 10 Republican primary for governor of New Jersey.
Trump made his proclamation a few days days after the New Jersey Globe obtained a new internal poll from Ciattarelli's campaign that showed him continuing to hold a wide lead over conservative radio host Bill Spadea in the nomination contest. The survey, from National Research, gives Ciattarelli, the GOP's nominee in 2021, a 54-23 advantage against Spadea. That's little changed from his 50-22 edge last month.
OK-Gov
State Superintendent Ryan Walters, who has feuded bitterly with term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt, has for the first time publicly acknowledged his interest in running to succeed Stitt next year.
"This summer, we've got to make a decision," Walters told KOCO 5, suggesting he wants to wait until after the school year is over to make an announcement. (That appears to be May 21.)
Walters, who has called the separation of church and state a "myth," has also clashed with the most prominent candidate in the GOP primary, state Attorney General Gentner Drummond. Meanwhile, Drummond has beefed with Stitt for years. Oh, and the other notable contender seeking the Republican nod, former state House Speaker Charles McCall, has butted heads with Walters, too (though he does at least seem to like Stitt).
On the Democratic side, there's no family feud: State House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson has the race to herself.
SD-Gov
Wealthy businessman Toby Doeden, one of several Republicans considering a bid for South Dakota's governorship, is hosting an event on May 28, reports Hub City Radio, which looks like a campaign kickoff.
House
CO-08
Amie Baca-Oehlert, who stepped down last year as head of the Colorado Education Association, told attendees at a recent political gathering that she's considering a bid for the state's 8th Congressional District against first-term Republican Rep. Gabe Evans.
Baca-Oehlert, whose former organization is the largest teachers' union in Colorado, also told Axios she might make a decision about whether to join the Democratic primary this week. State Rep. Manny Rutinel and former Rep. Yadira Caraveo are already seeking the party's nod, while several other candidates are in the mix.
IA-03
State Rep. Austin Baeth, who'd been considering a bid for Iowa's competitive 3rd Congressional District, tells Bleeding Heartland's Laura Belin that he'll seek reelection instead. Two other Democratic lawmakers are seeking to challenge Republican Rep. Zach Nunn: state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott and state Rep. Jennifer Konfrst, who stepped down as minority leader to run. No other names have surfaced as potential candidates.
IL-09
State Sen. Mike Simmons tells the Chicago Tribune that he's considering a bid for Illinois' open 9th District following Rep. Jan Schakowsky's retirement announcement last week. Simmons is one of several Democrats weighing the race for this reliably blue seat in the Chicago area that voted 68-31 for Kamala Harris.
KY-06
Former state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson on Tuesday became the first prominent Democrat to announce a campaign for Kentucky's 6th District, a conservative constituency that Republican Rep. Andy Barr is giving up to run for the Senate.
Stevenson flipped a state House district around Lexington in a tight open-seat race in 2018, and she won competitive contests to keep it during the next two election cycles. But the Democrat, who rose to become the party's caucus chair, lost reelection last year in a 50.4-49.6 squeaker.
Stevenson told the Lexington Herald Leader soon after her defeat, "I think when you have a national movement combined with a gerrymandered map, at some point it's going to catch up with you." She added that, while her party had just gone through a rough election, "Democrats do not need to give up hope; that pendulum is going to swing. … We have to call out the BS and fight for the good."
Several other Democrats could also run in the 6th. The Cook Political Report's Matthew Klein says that Gov. Andy Beshear is trying to entice two members of his administration: either Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman or former state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins, who is now a senior advisor to the governor.
Coleman said she wouldn't run back in February, and she hasn't publicly entertained the possibility she might change her mind. Adkins, meanwhile, has said he's been encouraged to campaign for Mitch McConnell's open Senate seat, though he did not say anything about running for the House.
Calculations by The Downballot show that the 6th District backed Donald Trump 57-42 last year, though Beshear carried it by double digits in both 2019 and 2023.
MI-13
Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who has long feuded with Detroit's other U.S. House member, Shri Thanedar, has endorsed state Rep. Donavan McKinney in next year's Democratic primary. Both Donavan and former state Sen. Adam Hollier are seeking to deny renomination to Thanedar in Michigan's 13th District, but it takes only a plurality of the vote to win the primary.
The Downballot will always provide fearless, accurate coverage of overlooked elections. If you rely on the work we do to stay informed, please consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work today. Thank you!
Tarrytown Trustee Effie Phillips-Staley has joined the very busy Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, making her the sixth notable candidate to enter the race.
In her launch video, Phillips-Staley slammed Lawler and Donald Trump for "targeting the VA, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid while their chaos tanks our economy." In comments to Politico, she said she intends to take "the progressive lane in this election."
New York City's Campaign Finance Board said Monday that it would award former Gov. Andrew Cuomo just $1.5 million of the $2.1 million he'd have otherwise qualified for, while the remaining $600,000 would be withheld over allegations he'd improperly coordinated with a super PAC.
A spokesperson for Cuomo, who did not qualify for any public financing during the previous round of disbursements last month after he failed to provide necessary information about his donors, argued he'd followed the city's rules. Cuomo's team added, "We look forward to making that clear when we respond to the Board’s preliminary ruling and receiving the full matching funds to which the campaign is entitled."
Cuomo also earned an endorsement from Rep. Adriano Espaillat, who represents northern Manhattan and the western Bronx, for the June 24 Democratic primary. Espaillat was one of countless Democrats who called for Cuomo's resignation in 2021 after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment.
Justice Allison Riggs was FINALLY sworn in today for her full term on the NC Supreme Court around 10 this morning, by her fellow judge Anita Earls. WNC streamed the ceremony on their YouTube channel.
Now the fight to keep Justice Earls on the court next year begins.
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is showcasing a new internal poll that went into the field following his arrest outside an immigration detention facility that puts him within four percentage points of the leading candidate in the race for Democratic gubernatorial nomination, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair).
The brushfire poll shows Sherrill leading Baraka, 20.7% to 16.5%, with Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop in the third with 12.9%.
They’re followed by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) with 7.3%, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller with 7.1%, and former Senate President Steve Sweeney with 5.1%.
Justice Allison Riggs was FINALLY sworn in today for her full term on the NC Supreme Court around 10 this morning, by her fellow judge Anita Earls. WNC streamed the ceremony on their YouTube channel.
Now the fight to keep Justice Earls on the court next year begins.
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is showcasing a new internal poll that went into the field following his arrest outside an immigration detention facility that puts him within four percentage points of the leading candidate in the race for Democratic gubernatorial nomination, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair).
The brushfire poll shows Sherrill leading Baraka, 20.7% to 16.5%, with Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop in the third with 12.9%.
They’re followed by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) with 7.3%, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller with 7.1%, and former Senate President Steve Sweeney with 5.1%.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/baraka-internal-poll-puts-him-4-points-behind-sherrill/
This is actually a bigger lead for Sherrill than she had in Baraka's March internal. Both have improved their numbers.