Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is showcasing a new internal poll that went into the field following his arrest outside an immigration detention facility that puts him within four percentage points of the leading candidate in the race for Democratic gubernatorial nomination, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair).
The brushfire poll shows Sherrill leading Baraka, 20.7% to 16.5%, with Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop in the third with 12.9%.
They’re followed by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) with 7.3%, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller with 7.1%, and former Senate President Steve Sweeney with 5.1%.
Mikie Sherrill is the most electable Democrat running in the primary, stellar candidate in the mold of Abigail Spanberger in nearby Virginia.
Trump today endorsed 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli for another try.
Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli would be somewhere between Lean D & Likely D and her and Spanberger jointly winning in November would be a hell of an Election Night sweep, devastating Republicans in this political environment!! 💙🇺🇲
Sherrill is good, but Baraka might have caught the break he needed to break out of a crowded primary. This will be a good test if Democratic voters regardless of ideology want a fighter.
And Sherrill hasn’t begun running ads yet from what I’ve read. He got his news bump and then it’ll be overwhelmed eventually unless this bump translates to fundraising.
Sherrill may still have a good GOTV machine. She doesn’t need ads to run a sophisticated ground game but they certainly can help drive the enthusiasm and fundraising.
I can see how fundraising could increase for Baraka but there’s also 3 1/2 weeks until the primary election is held. Better than if the election were held the following week but hard to know at this point.
Given how close 2021 was, I'm praying Mikie Sherrill is the nominee. Ras Baraka is way too risky given New Jersey's voting trends in the past few years and I can really see Ciattarelli unfortunately pulling a Christie against Baraka instead of Sherrill.
Way too much at stake, as Ciattarelli has promised a state-level DOGE in Trenton, and that's the last thing they would want or need.
New Jersey is not California, and electability matters, so playing it safe should be a no-brainer!! 💙🇺🇲
NJ, along with TX and NY, is a state I'm waiting for more elections to see if the recent shifts there are a new normal or an aberration.
I'm not particularly worried about a repeat of 2021. That year was the peak of our electoral vulnerability during the Biden years. It was before the Dobbs decision, after Covid didn't disappear simply because we elected Biden, after supply chain pressures started causing inflation on a global scale.
It's difficult to imagine this year's elections going as poorly as 2021's elections did.
EDIT: I got my timeline wrong, Russia's invasion was early 2022, not 2021.
Why did those shifts happen? It was primarily due to a huge swing in naturalized immigrants, non-white voting groups, young voters and Independents towards Republicans due to the inflation and immigration mess. Democrats have historically done well with these three groups. The precinct data is quite interesting too. Some states had a red shift similar to 2024 in 2022 while Dobbs held the line in others. New England, Texas, Florida and California are the most diverse places and you had the biggest shifts there. It was more muted in Nevada and Arizona seemingly due to huge electoral investments in ads and outreach.
Trump approval seems to have crashed among the same groups and they favor Democrats on the generic ballot again but there is a gap between his approval and the generic ballot due to trust deficit among these groups according to one comparison I saw. The change in th generic ballot is primarily due to their swing. I think there should be another huge swing in 2026 if Democrats get their act together due to this as well as Democrats turnout advantage. I expect worse perfomance in NY than 2020 due to Hochul's unpopularity though. I also expect that Democrats will lose in Florida but nevertheless there'll be huge swing considering their own insurance crisis, cost of living crisis, exodus, ICE deportation issues now since immigration and inflation can't be blamed on Democrats anymore.
"I expect worse perfomance in NY than 2020 due to Hobbs' unpopularity though." You mean Hochul. Is anyone actually primarying her? It's ridiculous if no-one is.
I actually don't expect worse performances from Democrats in NY (or most places) than in 2022, if only because of Trump's unpopularity and he serving as a motivator for Dems to turn out. Especially so if the NY GOP nominates someone like Stefanik who is probably too conservative to win statewide even in a red year. And that would probably mislead Hochul and many others in the state party leadership into thinking all is well again.
Honestly, if Republican primary voters had been disciplined enough to nominate a bland public-administrator type instead of election denier Lee Zeldin, they could have defeated Hochul.
I don't see them voting with discipline next year either.
I disagree with both portions of your statement. First, I don't think there are too many stronger statewide Republican NY candidates than Zeldin. If he couldn't do it, no one can. Second, NY is still too blue to elect a Republican governor. No way Hochul was losing that race and I reject the idea that she's vulnerable this year either.
I know that governor's races (especially the off-off-year ones) can be sui generis, but it's hard to see NJ-Gov falling into Republican hands in 2025 when they couldn't pull it off (despite considerably overperforming) in 2021.
If you’ve been following the Canadian election results and its lingering judicial recounts, you may have seen that the result for Terrebonne riding [district] in Quebec was changed. Liberals won it by one vote – a single vote!
But wait! The saga is not over. Here is why, and the story is amazing:
Elections Canada says it is investigating after a voter in a Quebec riding came forward with an envelope that had been returned to sender. Inside was a vote for the Bloc Québécois…
(If this vote is counted, e.g. by court order, Terebonne will have a tied election!)
As it stands, incoming Liberal MP Tatiana Auguste was declared the winner by one vote after several recounts. Elections Canada said the return address printed on this elector's return envelope was incorrect — specifically, part of the postal code.
Terrebonne resident Emmanuelle Bossé sent in her vote on time for the April 28 federal election.
"I wasn't the one who got Elections Canada's address wrong on the envelope. Elections Canada glued this label on the envelope. I had nothing to fill. I just had to put my vote in there."
I appreciate the Villegas quote about a "$50 million check". Successful politicians spend an incredible amount of time fundraising, to the detriment of their actual work. I sincerely believe that this, as much as rising polarization, is why Congress no longer reauthorizes programs or passes a budget and just floats along on continuing resolutions. They literally do not have the time for all the needed committee work, since their schedules are full up with fundraising.
Rather like academics (especially scientists), non-profit sector, and even some for profit R&D outfits that rely on continued investment (public or private) to keep going. Chasing money to support the enterprise becomes the enterprise itself.
It would be great if Iowa's statewide elections next year reflected just half of that special election percentage swing. The IA GOP is going to fight hard and spend big to keep Sand out of the governor's mansion, keep their legislative supermajority and keep Joni Ernst in the Senate.
Would be nice if Iowans got tired of single party rule.
I don't know why exactly but Iowa (-3 Trump atm) has been to the left of Ohio in this Trump real time approval poll by Civiqs since long. I would guess due to the presence of a big clean energy wind industry, less racially polarized voting and not being a part of the Rust Belt so they are not too enamored by tariffs? In any case, I would expect the gubernatorial election to be a tough climb but if anyone can do it, it's Rob Sand.
The Civiqs poll doesn't seem to have a bad accuracy since its Texas figures are roughly similar to that given by other polls.
The Selzer poll has become a right wing meme now but she did the right thing by not hiding it.
I wasn't personally sold by it though. I downloaded the pdf and when I saw the breakup, all the Democratic gain seemed to be coming from a huge swing in Gen X and Boomer women.
Not sure whose vote Pizzo is targeting since he has been pissing off most Democrats and has voted to basically end citizen-led amendments in Florida now. Seems like he is solely there as a spoiler or conservative Ralph Nader to exact revenge or does he really think Democrats won't run any candidate (Jolly or Levine Cava) even after he flipped off the party while leaving it?
I would love it if he draws more conservative voters just like Mike Duggan of Detroit in polls.
Justice Allison Riggs was FINALLY sworn in today for her full term on the NC Supreme Court around 10 this morning, by her fellow judge Anita Earls. WNC streamed the ceremony on their YouTube channel.
Now the fight to keep Justice Earls on the court next year begins.
as a volunteer for Justice Earls back in law school, she is the real deal. Hopefully she benefits from a split republican field like she did in 2018. NC Governor appoints and fills all vacancies so this could flip to a majority well before the 2028 number that is thrown about a lot. Up until 2020 the Court was 6-1 democratic, but in 2017 it was 4-3 democratic just several years after a horrific conservative majority. Things are fluid in the old north state.
I don't think Justice Earls will have that split Republican field like she did in 2018 -- but with the 2026 midterms, she won't need it. I think she'll get reelected by a bigger number than Riggs did last year. Her 2026 GOP challenger Sarah Stevens is pretty despicable.
And in the waning days of their supermajority last year, NC Republicans overrode Gov Cooper on a law requiring any appointees to appellate and state courts be of the same party as the outgoing justice (the governor could only pick one candidate out of three put forward by the party). Meaning that if Paul Newby or Tamara Barringer died or resigned before their terms were up, Gov Stein could only appoint a Republican out of three chosen by NC GOP.
Anderson Clayton has been working her butt off to turn things around since she became state party Democratic chair in 2023. She not only managed to get Josh Stein in the governor's mansion, but Jeff Jackson, Mo Green, Rachel Hunt and now Allison Riggs won their seats. Under previous leadership, we'd have lost more statewide races last year.
2028 is going to be a BIG year for the state. Dave Boliek, the yes-man for Phil Berger who now controls the NC State Board of Elections, will be a top target. Lots of Rs will be up for re-election and with Trump termed out, there will be Dems and independents looking to punish the GOP.
I'm hoping we can oust Ted Budd and flip at least two of the state Supreme Court seats in 2028. That would be a boon for NC.
Ms. Clayton is the best. I was most impressed by the Mo Green and Rachel Hunt victories. If previous leadership had actually gone after Dan Forrest and Mark Robinson maybe Roy Cooper would have felt more comfortable accepting a place on VP Harris's ticket. No disagreement the party is finally doing the right steps down in NC. I was only there from 2017-2020 and was shocked by the lack of infrastructure for a party that--up until 2010 had complete control of all three branches for literally generations.
Only area of concern is we still cannot get proper POC turnout in the Charlotte area. Not on Anderson Clayton, but i remain skeptical we take it federally until we can bump those charlotte numbers up. But totally agree, if not for Anderson Clayton North Carolina would have been a wipeout, and instead we finally have numerical parity on the council of state
The fact that a sitting Democratic SCONC judge narrowly won her reelection last year -- in an R-favorable election cycle with Trump on the ballot -- is proof that Anderson is a force to be reckoned with. I wish we had won those three seats on the Court of Appeals too, but SCONC is the big prize.
I honestly think the NC GOP is scared of her now. They thought they had several down ballot races in the bag, especially the state Supreme Court, that those narrow losses rattled them. That's why they pushed through those sore loser power grabs -- not a good sign for their future in this state. Because had Anderson been in charge of party leadership in 2020 and 2022, the NC GOP wouldn't have a 5-2 majority on our state's highest court. Hell, Phil Berger would've been demoted to state Senate minority leader with fair state legislative maps by now.
Not sure if Dems actually would have won the state senate in 2020 or 2022 even with the Anderson in charge. However, Dems really dropped the ball in 2020 in many races they should have won.
Chief Justice Paul Newby ousted Cheri Beasley in 2020 by a margin of 401 votes -- so no. That was a preventable failure by state party leadership by Bobbi Richardson.
Beasley would've likely won by a small amount if Anderson was on the scene in 2020.
2024 was so horrible, I completely forgot about down ballot races in NC. I remember a bullet point about it here, but that was a good bulletin point amongst a lot of awful.
“The credentials committee believed, as they stated, that they are remedying a procedural flaw. But doing so the way they did, is a slap in my face. I’m frustrated, but I’ll be ok,” Kenyatta wrote, adding in another post that “this story is complex and I’m frustrated — but it’s not about (Hogg).”
The challenge was brought by Oklahoma DNC member Kalyn Free, who argued that the party violated its own rules and made it harder for a woman to be elected vice chair.
Her complaint was filed well before Hogg promised to challenge fellow Democrats.
The committee voted 13-2 on Monday evening after about more than three hours of discussion.
The party’s rules state that the DNC’s governing body should achieve gender parity or get as close to it as is possible. Free argued, according to her initial complaint, which was shared with POLITICO, that Kenyatta and Hogg had access to more votes than Free and two other women running for the slot because the DNC’s rules were not properly followed and “made it impossible” for any woman to win the race.
“I have always known that the Democratic Party is the party of free and fair elections. Today, the credentials committee of the DNC confirmed that correcting mistakes in process, and protecting democracy is more important than saving face,” Free said in a statement after the vote.
Earlier this month, Free told POLITICO her challenge was “about fairness,” and added that her challenge had nothing to do with Hogg’s group funding primary challenges.
“This other thing — $20 million — that’s David’s issue,” she said.
I think Kenyatta deserves reelection to his DNC post.
Hogg....not so much. And I'm not saying this because of what Hogg it's doing, it's just don't go around primarying incumbent Dems while you're an elected party official!
Yes, I can just see the reaction from Democratic rank and file and members of congress if their leader said, "If you want to live in the U.S., you should speak English." But I'm sure Trumpites would be pleased with this demagogic immigrant bashing.
"If you want to live in the U.S., you should speak English."
Have you eve strayed into the Comments section on Fox News online? The lack of literacy clearly qualifies a huge swathe of those readers for immediate deportation!
On a larger philosophical basis, one could well consider whether boundaries are artificial. But setting that aside, whether being somewhere is a right or privilege depends on the circumstances. If you were born in the U.S. or were determined to have run here to save your life, being here is a right. If you were given a green card because you convinced an immigration officer that you would be an asset to the country, your acceptance was a privilege.
Americans think immigrants have to be able to speak English well -before- they get here? If so, they're both unreasonable and ignoring the fact that many of them have ancestors who would have failed that test dismally, but their children were native or at least fluent English-speakers.
I think this is a case where if you asked it as a question, a majority would say yes that they support that. At the same time, if someone tried to implement it we would see that same majority immediately pissed off, because they wouldn't support the practical ramifications of such a requirement.
Not the same thing, but it's kind of a similar idea to a lot of gun control measures, where people will say they support it up until legislation is introduced and then a lot of that support evaporates.
In short: an English language requirement for all immigrants would have a mirage of popularity. This makes it hard for us to attack but easier to fend off in congress.
They may think that settlement in the UK is a privilege, but if they restrict immigration, they'll ruin their economy, which is already damaged by Brexit, and become more of a backwater. Insular, you can call it.
Exactly! It's one of the reasons why perhaps my most left-wing political position (as a relative moderate) is immigration. It's simple math - we need immigrants and the UK does too (more than we do, even). That's not even getting into the moral justification for accepting immigrants. That said, I do acknowledge the political reality of the topic...
it is disheartening to see the amount of flack you are getting for acknowledging that Sir Keir is doing his best to bring back the perfidious albion label
yea i couldn't stand corbyn. and yet i have major problems with sir keir sprinting to the right ...checks notes... after winning an election. save the tough anti immigrant bs to get elected, do not make it labour policy
Corbyn was unelectable and had serious issues besides that.
But I wouldn't call the 2024 Labour win a landslide. Yeah, their seat total would account for being a landslide, but that's deceptive. They got 33.7% of the vote. That's really unimpressive. If the UK didn't have a FPTP system they would have done far worse.
Which I suspect is the reason they're doing this. Trying to win back some of the anti-immigrant vote that they think might be gettable. I doubt it'll work out; it hasn't for them yet. Trying to cannibalize Lib-Dem and Green voters strikes me as the easier path.
The "Rivers of Blood" speech was made by the British politician Enoch Powell on 20 April 1968 to a meeting of the Conservative Political Centre in Birmingham. In it Powell, who was then Shadow Secretary of State for Defence in the Shadow Cabinet of Edward Heath, strongly criticised the rates of immigration from the Commonwealth of Nations (mostly former colonies of the British Empire) to the United Kingdom since the Second World War. He also opposed the Race Relations Bill, an anti-discrimination bill which upon receiving royal assent as the Race Relations Act 1968 criminalised the refusal of housing, employment, or public services to persons on the grounds of colour, race, or ethnic or national origin. Powell himself called it "the Birmingham speech"; "Rivers of Blood" alludes to a prophecy from Virgil's Aeneid which Powell (a classical scholar) quoted:
As I look ahead, I am filled with foreboding; like the Roman, I seem to see 'the River Tiber foaming with much blood'.[1]
Up in the UK, Tory MP Patrick Spencer was suspended from the Tory party after he was charged with two counts of sexual assault over alleged incidents at a club in London in 2023. Spencer will soon not be a MP, either he will resign (like ex-Labour MP Mike Amesbury who is now in prison for beating up a constituent after a night of drinking) or be recalled by his constituents.
The good: Committing any kind of sexual crimes is still a career ender no matter what side of the political aisle you're on.
The bad: Reform UK will have an even better opportunity to pick up another seat than the opportunity they had in Runcorn which they managed to pull off by 6 votes.
IL-2: State Senator Robert Peters is running to succeed Robin Kelly, who's running for U.S. Senate.
Much of this district is suburban, so if someone from there can consolidate the vote, they might be able to beat him. The best candidate would be Literally Anyone Else.
Because he's a progressive? No, because he cosplays as a progressive. Rhetorically, he says the right things, but you can't count on him if you're a progressive, even in his district. This is not the person IL-2 needs to fight Trump/Musk.
I was mainly asking if there was some kind of scandal I wasn’t aware of.
By cosplaying, what do you mean? Has he taken specific actions that out him as not a progressive? Votes or such? I’m genuinely not aware, I’m just asking.
No scandal that I know of. By cosplay, I mean that he talks about "the people" but he doesn't deliver. He claims the mantle of progressive officials, but he constantly waits to see what the party tells him he should do. He hides out when things get tough. Pass.
I have had direct dealings with him and find that he is not willing to stick his neck out if he believes that powerful interests (party bosses, donors) are against something. In other words, he won't take a position that his constituents favor if his backers are opposed to it. That's not in the spirit of the state senate district he represents, and I can't believe he would be an effective advocate if he's elected to Congress. Support whomever you want, but know what you're getting--a standard issue Democratic vote on any issue, and in this district, it's possible to get someone with more backbone since the general election is not an issue.
Much more of a more reliable Democrat on the issues, which is why big Minnesota names like Al Franken, Keith Ellison, Julie Blaha have endorsed her. 💙🇺🇲
Omaha Mayor: Any thoughts on what might happen tonight? Obviously Stothert has the incumbency and cash advantages, but after three terms there might be some fatigue setting in (her 36-33 primary result seems lackluster after crushing it in 2021), and Ewing has the McDonnell endorsement, whatever it may be worth.
I suspect that Troy Jackson is waiting to see what Jared Golden does. They are both from upstate Maine and if Golden leaves his house seat, I suspect that Jackson will be the Democratic candidate for the house. He won't run in the same race as Golden because they share the same base.
Just filled the oval for Beverly At-Large Councilor Hannah Bowen in the MA Essex-6 special general election. Bowen defeated Beverly Ward 1 Councilor Todd Rotondo 2,644 to 2,033 in the special primary on April 15. I voted for Rotondo because I saw him being very active in the community whereas Bowen seems to me more of a blank slate. But he was probably not well known outside his ward.
The Republicans recruited well for this election, and will be closer than the 66-32 Harris margin. Medley Long III is almost the perfect candidate: small businessman, two-term President of Beverly Chamber of Commerce, President of Beverly Homecoming (one of three major festivals in Beverly), VP Beverly Farms Improvement Society, Board Member of Beverly Holiday Parade, and more. His platform is helping small businesses and building more affordable housing. He will appeal to long-time Beverly residents who see his investment in the community. He should win Beverly Ward 6 (my ward), maybe Beverly Ward 4, and maybe Wenham Precinct 1. I would be surprised, but not shocked, if he won.
At 6pm, 631 votes cast in Beverly Ward 6. Polls close 8pm.
Thank you for a local perspective on a downballot race, can you clarify though, because you mentioned 3 names, that you voted for Bowen and Rotondo and then that Long was a well recruited Rephblican. I’m assuming you voted Rotondo (D) in the primary and Bowen (D) for the general? And Bowen’s opponent is Long (R) who got 2nd place in the primary in April. Is that right? And thank you for voting!
Also, for City Council which person should we be hoping wins in each district?
1 other comment: It is truly the peak of hypocrisy by the GOP mayor Stothert to talk about transgender bathrooms in ads and on mailers, but then getting upset saying people care about only local issues when Ewing ties her to Trump. She fits perfectly in her party and I hope she goes down in flames tonight!
FWIW, the early in the day ED vote actually increased Ewing’s margin over Stothert from the early vote. She better hope the 2pm-8pm ED vote is all Republicans or she’s likely toast. Next vote count comes at 7:45 PST, 9:45 CST, 10:45 EST so we have to wait a while.
Since the source for this has no estimate for how much of the vote is in, I went to check prior elections as a reference. There were 97k votes in the last mayoral election in 2021, 99k in 2017, and 84k in 2013.
Assuming this year's total ends up in the 100k ballpark, the above data would represent about half of the total vote. But we don't know what the final total will be so there's decent error bars on that.
Looks like we won! Ewing was also our candidate against Rep. Lee Terry way back in 2012. Our loss in 2017 against Stoehert was one of our few notable disappointments that year (along with GA-06).
Since I can’t embed anymore, something a little different about these special election results worth pointing out in the results: blue seats also outperformed Harris and the boost comes across rural, suburban and urban races, with the biggest overperformance in a D vs R race from a rural Trump stronghold (R+51 I think?) in OK.
Is it the ancestral Dem surprisingly strong OK Dem special elections or is there a rural backlash to the tariffs brewing? That’s one of the very few issues rural voters irrespective of party loyalty/ideology especially hate because everything already costs more than elsewhere and supply is low enough to begin with. Something to watch in future results imo.
Ethan C7
@ECaliberSeven
Welcome back to Special Elex Tuesday!
In what has become an utterly routine event, Dems once again MASSIVELY outran Harris, this time in rural Oklahoma (by 19%) and suburban Massachusetts (by 14%).
Dems are now outrunning Harris by an average of 11% in 2025's special elections.
My own addition: Stothert won her previous election in 2021 by 64-35 so this is nearly a 40 point shift dependent upon the ballots left to be counted.
I know we’re used to the endless election cycles where a few months after one ends, a new one begins for those few hyper aware election followers and fewer still for people who notice whether a candidate drops out running for office in May over 1.5 years from the midterm elections. But this isn’t exactly uncommon either. Some people don’t like running in an unwinnable district and decide to follow other career pursuits or drop down running to a lower office when they understand how much efforts it takes. Along with hundreds of other reasons: health, age, tragedy, new child, different paying job etc etc.
I’m absolutely not saying it’s a good thing, so don’t get me wrong, but this early in the cycle especially: it’s normal. Heck, we’ve seen candidates drop out a month before the actual election day. Someone hopefully will step up to run in their district sometime in the next year or so candidates have to file to run before the deadline in most states.
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is showcasing a new internal poll that went into the field following his arrest outside an immigration detention facility that puts him within four percentage points of the leading candidate in the race for Democratic gubernatorial nomination, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair).
The brushfire poll shows Sherrill leading Baraka, 20.7% to 16.5%, with Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop in the third with 12.9%.
They’re followed by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) with 7.3%, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller with 7.1%, and former Senate President Steve Sweeney with 5.1%.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/baraka-internal-poll-puts-him-4-points-behind-sherrill/
This is actually a bigger lead for Sherrill than she had in Baraka's March internal. Both have improved their numbers.
Mikie Sherrill is the most electable Democrat running in the primary, stellar candidate in the mold of Abigail Spanberger in nearby Virginia.
Trump today endorsed 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli for another try.
Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli would be somewhere between Lean D & Likely D and her and Spanberger jointly winning in November would be a hell of an Election Night sweep, devastating Republicans in this political environment!! 💙🇺🇲
Sherrill is good, but Baraka might have caught the break he needed to break out of a crowded primary. This will be a good test if Democratic voters regardless of ideology want a fighter.
See what Sarah Longwell at The Bulwark found when she asked a focus group of Dem voters for what I mean: https://youtu.be/QbEd5BiaoWM?si=rnx-ea4vleMcwoWc
But Baraka's proposals are to the left of most and I'm not sure if they are doable.
Right now, I see Ras Baraka’s rise in polls more of a surge in interest than anything else.
Unless there’s something I’m missing.
And Sherrill hasn’t begun running ads yet from what I’ve read. He got his news bump and then it’ll be overwhelmed eventually unless this bump translates to fundraising.
Sherrill may still have a good GOTV machine. She doesn’t need ads to run a sophisticated ground game but they certainly can help drive the enthusiasm and fundraising.
I can see how fundraising could increase for Baraka but there’s also 3 1/2 weeks until the primary election is held. Better than if the election were held the following week but hard to know at this point.
Given how close 2021 was, I'm praying Mikie Sherrill is the nominee. Ras Baraka is way too risky given New Jersey's voting trends in the past few years and I can really see Ciattarelli unfortunately pulling a Christie against Baraka instead of Sherrill.
Way too much at stake, as Ciattarelli has promised a state-level DOGE in Trenton, and that's the last thing they would want or need.
New Jersey is not California, and electability matters, so playing it safe should be a no-brainer!! 💙🇺🇲
Baraka's proposals would likely fail even in California or Vermont.
Which ones? But the thing is, ok, so he won't get what he wants. In that case, he might not be effectively very left-wing as governor.
NJ, along with TX and NY, is a state I'm waiting for more elections to see if the recent shifts there are a new normal or an aberration.
I'm not particularly worried about a repeat of 2021. That year was the peak of our electoral vulnerability during the Biden years. It was before the Dobbs decision, after Covid didn't disappear simply because we elected Biden, after supply chain pressures started causing inflation on a global scale.
It's difficult to imagine this year's elections going as poorly as 2021's elections did.
EDIT: I got my timeline wrong, Russia's invasion was early 2022, not 2021.
Why did those shifts happen? It was primarily due to a huge swing in naturalized immigrants, non-white voting groups, young voters and Independents towards Republicans due to the inflation and immigration mess. Democrats have historically done well with these three groups. The precinct data is quite interesting too. Some states had a red shift similar to 2024 in 2022 while Dobbs held the line in others. New England, Texas, Florida and California are the most diverse places and you had the biggest shifts there. It was more muted in Nevada and Arizona seemingly due to huge electoral investments in ads and outreach.
Trump approval seems to have crashed among the same groups and they favor Democrats on the generic ballot again but there is a gap between his approval and the generic ballot due to trust deficit among these groups according to one comparison I saw. The change in th generic ballot is primarily due to their swing. I think there should be another huge swing in 2026 if Democrats get their act together due to this as well as Democrats turnout advantage. I expect worse perfomance in NY than 2020 due to Hochul's unpopularity though. I also expect that Democrats will lose in Florida but nevertheless there'll be huge swing considering their own insurance crisis, cost of living crisis, exodus, ICE deportation issues now since immigration and inflation can't be blamed on Democrats anymore.
"I expect worse perfomance in NY than 2020 due to Hobbs' unpopularity though." You mean Hochul. Is anyone actually primarying her? It's ridiculous if no-one is.
And did they mean worse than 2022?
I actually don't expect worse performances from Democrats in NY (or most places) than in 2022, if only because of Trump's unpopularity and he serving as a motivator for Dems to turn out. Especially so if the NY GOP nominates someone like Stefanik who is probably too conservative to win statewide even in a red year. And that would probably mislead Hochul and many others in the state party leadership into thinking all is well again.
Honestly, if Republican primary voters had been disciplined enough to nominate a bland public-administrator type instead of election denier Lee Zeldin, they could have defeated Hochul.
I don't see them voting with discipline next year either.
I disagree with both portions of your statement. First, I don't think there are too many stronger statewide Republican NY candidates than Zeldin. If he couldn't do it, no one can. Second, NY is still too blue to elect a Republican governor. No way Hochul was losing that race and I reject the idea that she's vulnerable this year either.
Yeah, I've long been of the belief that Covid is what tipped the scale for Youngkin in VA and caused Ciatarelli's overperformance in NJ.
None of us had any idea at that point that the "social end" of the pandemic was only a few months away...
Not quite CA, but if running the Mayor of Newark could threaten a Republican flip in New Jersey, the Democrats are in big trouble in 2026, not the Democratic wave cautiously forecast by G. Elliott Morris: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-have-a-huge-turnout-advantage
I know that governor's races (especially the off-off-year ones) can be sui generis, but it's hard to see NJ-Gov falling into Republican hands in 2025 when they couldn't pull it off (despite considerably overperforming) in 2021.
Cory Booker was the mayor of Newark.
He is much more mainstream than Ras Baraka, though.
I don’t think it’s ideology that makes Baraka a tougher sell in a general election.
What do you think it is, then?
Unlike Booker and Obama, he comes off as “too black” for some white New Jerseyeans.
It seems surprising for it to be that close.
TIED ELECTION IN TEREBONNE, QUEBEC?
If you’ve been following the Canadian election results and its lingering judicial recounts, you may have seen that the result for Terrebonne riding [district] in Quebec was changed. Liberals won it by one vote – a single vote!
But wait! The saga is not over. Here is why, and the story is amazing:
Elections Canada says it is investigating after a voter in a Quebec riding came forward with an envelope that had been returned to sender. Inside was a vote for the Bloc Québécois…
(If this vote is counted, e.g. by court order, Terebonne will have a tied election!)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/elections-canada-investigating-terrebonne-1.7533228
As it stands, incoming Liberal MP Tatiana Auguste was declared the winner by one vote after several recounts. Elections Canada said the return address printed on this elector's return envelope was incorrect — specifically, part of the postal code.
Terrebonne resident Emmanuelle Bossé sent in her vote on time for the April 28 federal election.
"I wasn't the one who got Elections Canada's address wrong on the envelope. Elections Canada glued this label on the envelope. I had nothing to fill. I just had to put my vote in there."
I appreciate the Villegas quote about a "$50 million check". Successful politicians spend an incredible amount of time fundraising, to the detriment of their actual work. I sincerely believe that this, as much as rising polarization, is why Congress no longer reauthorizes programs or passes a budget and just floats along on continuing resolutions. They literally do not have the time for all the needed committee work, since their schedules are full up with fundraising.
Rather like academics (especially scientists), non-profit sector, and even some for profit R&D outfits that rely on continued investment (public or private) to keep going. Chasing money to support the enterprise becomes the enterprise itself.
It would be great if Iowa's statewide elections next year reflected just half of that special election percentage swing. The IA GOP is going to fight hard and spend big to keep Sand out of the governor's mansion, keep their legislative supermajority and keep Joni Ernst in the Senate.
Would be nice if Iowans got tired of single party rule.
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump_2025?uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&annotations=true&map=true
I don't know why exactly but Iowa (-3 Trump atm) has been to the left of Ohio in this Trump real time approval poll by Civiqs since long. I would guess due to the presence of a big clean energy wind industry, less racially polarized voting and not being a part of the Rust Belt so they are not too enamored by tariffs? In any case, I would expect the gubernatorial election to be a tough climb but if anyone can do it, it's Rob Sand.
The Civiqs poll doesn't seem to have a bad accuracy since its Texas figures are roughly similar to that given by other polls.
I hope Iowa polling will be better than that presidential poll...
The Selzer poll has become a right wing meme now but she did the right thing by not hiding it.
I wasn't personally sold by it though. I downloaded the pdf and when I saw the breakup, all the Democratic gain seemed to be coming from a huge swing in Gen X and Boomer women.
I didn't buy the margin but thought she was catching legit late movement (which she nearly always did prior).
I'm not saying she shouldn't have owned it. She has integrity. However, she was wrong that time.
Not sure whose vote Pizzo is targeting since he has been pissing off most Democrats and has voted to basically end citizen-led amendments in Florida now. Seems like he is solely there as a spoiler or conservative Ralph Nader to exact revenge or does he really think Democrats won't run any candidate (Jolly or Levine Cava) even after he flipped off the party while leaving it?
I would love it if he draws more conservative voters just like Mike Duggan of Detroit in polls.
Justice Allison Riggs was FINALLY sworn in today for her full term on the NC Supreme Court around 10 this morning, by her fellow judge Anita Earls. WNC streamed the ceremony on their YouTube channel.
Now the fight to keep Justice Earls on the court next year begins.
as a volunteer for Justice Earls back in law school, she is the real deal. Hopefully she benefits from a split republican field like she did in 2018. NC Governor appoints and fills all vacancies so this could flip to a majority well before the 2028 number that is thrown about a lot. Up until 2020 the Court was 6-1 democratic, but in 2017 it was 4-3 democratic just several years after a horrific conservative majority. Things are fluid in the old north state.
I don't think Justice Earls will have that split Republican field like she did in 2018 -- but with the 2026 midterms, she won't need it. I think she'll get reelected by a bigger number than Riggs did last year. Her 2026 GOP challenger Sarah Stevens is pretty despicable.
And in the waning days of their supermajority last year, NC Republicans overrode Gov Cooper on a law requiring any appointees to appellate and state courts be of the same party as the outgoing justice (the governor could only pick one candidate out of three put forward by the party). Meaning that if Paul Newby or Tamara Barringer died or resigned before their terms were up, Gov Stein could only appoint a Republican out of three chosen by NC GOP.
Ah I forgot that. Another reason I am not sad I don’t live there anymore
Anderson Clayton has been working her butt off to turn things around since she became state party Democratic chair in 2023. She not only managed to get Josh Stein in the governor's mansion, but Jeff Jackson, Mo Green, Rachel Hunt and now Allison Riggs won their seats. Under previous leadership, we'd have lost more statewide races last year.
2028 is going to be a BIG year for the state. Dave Boliek, the yes-man for Phil Berger who now controls the NC State Board of Elections, will be a top target. Lots of Rs will be up for re-election and with Trump termed out, there will be Dems and independents looking to punish the GOP.
I'm hoping we can oust Ted Budd and flip at least two of the state Supreme Court seats in 2028. That would be a boon for NC.
Ms. Clayton is the best. I was most impressed by the Mo Green and Rachel Hunt victories. If previous leadership had actually gone after Dan Forrest and Mark Robinson maybe Roy Cooper would have felt more comfortable accepting a place on VP Harris's ticket. No disagreement the party is finally doing the right steps down in NC. I was only there from 2017-2020 and was shocked by the lack of infrastructure for a party that--up until 2010 had complete control of all three branches for literally generations.
Only area of concern is we still cannot get proper POC turnout in the Charlotte area. Not on Anderson Clayton, but i remain skeptical we take it federally until we can bump those charlotte numbers up. But totally agree, if not for Anderson Clayton North Carolina would have been a wipeout, and instead we finally have numerical parity on the council of state
The fact that a sitting Democratic SCONC judge narrowly won her reelection last year -- in an R-favorable election cycle with Trump on the ballot -- is proof that Anderson is a force to be reckoned with. I wish we had won those three seats on the Court of Appeals too, but SCONC is the big prize.
I honestly think the NC GOP is scared of her now. They thought they had several down ballot races in the bag, especially the state Supreme Court, that those narrow losses rattled them. That's why they pushed through those sore loser power grabs -- not a good sign for their future in this state. Because had Anderson been in charge of party leadership in 2020 and 2022, the NC GOP wouldn't have a 5-2 majority on our state's highest court. Hell, Phil Berger would've been demoted to state Senate minority leader with fair state legislative maps by now.
Not sure if Dems actually would have won the state senate in 2020 or 2022 even with the Anderson in charge. However, Dems really dropped the ball in 2020 in many races they should have won.
Chief Justice Paul Newby ousted Cheri Beasley in 2020 by a margin of 401 votes -- so no. That was a preventable failure by state party leadership by Bobbi Richardson.
Beasley would've likely won by a small amount if Anderson was on the scene in 2020.
2024 was so horrible, I completely forgot about down ballot races in NC. I remember a bullet point about it here, but that was a good bulletin point amongst a lot of awful.
We had several significant Democratic statewide wins in NC. Unfortunately that didn't extend to the presidential race or state auditor's election.
Looks like the DNC is moving forward to oust Hogg but I hate that Kenyatta might have to go through another vote due to a procedural error: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/us/politics/david-hogg-dnc-democrats.html
Hogg shouldn't have been in the DNC with the shit he's been pulling.
His idea is good but he shouldn't have run for DNC vice chair if he wanted to do it. I think he should resign. The DNC must remain neutral.
The DNC should be laser focused on electing Democrats, not primary challenges.
Kenyatta called Trump a would be dictator and punk, so of course the DNC would want to get rid of him. DNC stands for Do Not roCk the boat.
To be fair, that's not the reason why. It was a challenge brought by another DNC member. Here's what the deal is: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/12/dnc-panel-opens-the-door-to-removing-david-hogg-from-his-national-post-00343653
“The credentials committee believed, as they stated, that they are remedying a procedural flaw. But doing so the way they did, is a slap in my face. I’m frustrated, but I’ll be ok,” Kenyatta wrote, adding in another post that “this story is complex and I’m frustrated — but it’s not about (Hogg).”
The challenge was brought by Oklahoma DNC member Kalyn Free, who argued that the party violated its own rules and made it harder for a woman to be elected vice chair.
Her complaint was filed well before Hogg promised to challenge fellow Democrats.
The committee voted 13-2 on Monday evening after about more than three hours of discussion.
The party’s rules state that the DNC’s governing body should achieve gender parity or get as close to it as is possible. Free argued, according to her initial complaint, which was shared with POLITICO, that Kenyatta and Hogg had access to more votes than Free and two other women running for the slot because the DNC’s rules were not properly followed and “made it impossible” for any woman to win the race.
“I have always known that the Democratic Party is the party of free and fair elections. Today, the credentials committee of the DNC confirmed that correcting mistakes in process, and protecting democracy is more important than saving face,” Free said in a statement after the vote.
Earlier this month, Free told POLITICO her challenge was “about fairness,” and added that her challenge had nothing to do with Hogg’s group funding primary challenges.
“This other thing — $20 million — that’s David’s issue,” she said.
I think Kenyatta deserves reelection to his DNC post.
Hogg....not so much. And I'm not saying this because of what Hogg it's doing, it's just don't go around primarying incumbent Dems while you're an elected party official!
Paleo, that is a very unfair description of the DNC under Ken Martin.
Mr. Rivers of Blood II Starmer sounding like Kristi Noem.
Settlement in the UK is a privilege that is earned, not a right.
If you want to live in the UK, you should speak English.
https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1922310240973791552
https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1921872765428109714
I think it's worthwhile for western liberal parties to accept that both statements are supported by like 80% of Americans and Britons.
Yes, I can just see the reaction from Democratic rank and file and members of congress if their leader said, "If you want to live in the U.S., you should speak English." But I'm sure Trumpites would be pleased with this demagogic immigrant bashing.
sir keir will soon realize governing like the tories will get him the same election result the tories received last july fourth
"If you want to live in the U.S., you should speak English."
Have you eve strayed into the Comments section on Fox News online? The lack of literacy clearly qualifies a huge swathe of those readers for immediate deportation!
I would imagine a large majority of immigrants would agree with that statement
Which statement? That settlement in Country X is a privilege?
I would agree with that one.
On a larger philosophical basis, one could well consider whether boundaries are artificial. But setting that aside, whether being somewhere is a right or privilege depends on the circumstances. If you were born in the U.S. or were determined to have run here to save your life, being here is a right. If you were given a green card because you convinced an immigration officer that you would be an asset to the country, your acceptance was a privilege.
you lost the median voter at the word "philosophical"
I wasn't addressing the median voter in making that remark. Rights are legal.
fair enough!
Americans think immigrants have to be able to speak English well -before- they get here? If so, they're both unreasonable and ignoring the fact that many of them have ancestors who would have failed that test dismally, but their children were native or at least fluent English-speakers.
Tbh, that is exactly how Standard American English came about.
Partly, and partly because of which parts of the British Isles immigrants to the U.S. came from.
I think this is a case where if you asked it as a question, a majority would say yes that they support that. At the same time, if someone tried to implement it we would see that same majority immediately pissed off, because they wouldn't support the practical ramifications of such a requirement.
Not the same thing, but it's kind of a similar idea to a lot of gun control measures, where people will say they support it up until legislation is introduced and then a lot of that support evaporates.
In short: an English language requirement for all immigrants would have a mirage of popularity. This makes it hard for us to attack but easier to fend off in congress.
Americans are unreasonable, ignorant hypocrites.
Yes, welcome to American politics. Many people involved are very unreasonable.
We know that.
They may think that settlement in the UK is a privilege, but if they restrict immigration, they'll ruin their economy, which is already damaged by Brexit, and become more of a backwater. Insular, you can call it.
Exactly! It's one of the reasons why perhaps my most left-wing political position (as a relative moderate) is immigration. It's simple math - we need immigrants and the UK does too (more than we do, even). That's not even getting into the moral justification for accepting immigrants. That said, I do acknowledge the political reality of the topic...
the UK is cooked I think unfortunately.
A supermajority of voters will agree with both statements. Do you think it is helpful to make these comparisons?
Yes. Then you should have no problem with similar demagogic statements coming from the Trump and members of the Trump administration.
I have a lot of problems with what Trump and his administration is doing. Those two things are not amongst them.
Dems attacking Trump over these two specific things are wrong and should stop doing it.
it is disheartening to see the amount of flack you are getting for acknowledging that Sir Keir is doing his best to bring back the perfidious albion label
Someone will never going to get over the fact that Jeremy Corbyn will never be UK Prime Minister while Keir Starmer won a landslide.
This isn't personal just to Paleo.
yea i couldn't stand corbyn. and yet i have major problems with sir keir sprinting to the right ...checks notes... after winning an election. save the tough anti immigrant bs to get elected, do not make it labour policy
Corbyn was unelectable and had serious issues besides that.
But I wouldn't call the 2024 Labour win a landslide. Yeah, their seat total would account for being a landslide, but that's deceptive. They got 33.7% of the vote. That's really unimpressive. If the UK didn't have a FPTP system they would have done far worse.
Which I suspect is the reason they're doing this. Trying to win back some of the anti-immigrant vote that they think might be gettable. I doubt it'll work out; it hasn't for them yet. Trying to cannibalize Lib-Dem and Green voters strikes me as the easier path.
Was "Rivers of Blood" something Hitler said? I don't recognize the reference.
https://www.historyextra.com/period/20th-century/rivers-blood-speech-divides-britain/
No. I found it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rivers_of_Blood_speech
The "Rivers of Blood" speech was made by the British politician Enoch Powell on 20 April 1968 to a meeting of the Conservative Political Centre in Birmingham. In it Powell, who was then Shadow Secretary of State for Defence in the Shadow Cabinet of Edward Heath, strongly criticised the rates of immigration from the Commonwealth of Nations (mostly former colonies of the British Empire) to the United Kingdom since the Second World War. He also opposed the Race Relations Bill, an anti-discrimination bill which upon receiving royal assent as the Race Relations Act 1968 criminalised the refusal of housing, employment, or public services to persons on the grounds of colour, race, or ethnic or national origin. Powell himself called it "the Birmingham speech"; "Rivers of Blood" alludes to a prophecy from Virgil's Aeneid which Powell (a classical scholar) quoted:
As I look ahead, I am filled with foreboding; like the Roman, I seem to see 'the River Tiber foaming with much blood'.[1]
Up in the UK, Tory MP Patrick Spencer was suspended from the Tory party after he was charged with two counts of sexual assault over alleged incidents at a club in London in 2023. Spencer will soon not be a MP, either he will resign (like ex-Labour MP Mike Amesbury who is now in prison for beating up a constituent after a night of drinking) or be recalled by his constituents.
The good: Committing any kind of sexual crimes is still a career ender no matter what side of the political aisle you're on.
The bad: Reform UK will have an even better opportunity to pick up another seat than the opportunity they had in Runcorn which they managed to pull off by 6 votes.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/may/13/tory-mp-patrick-spencer-charged-with-two-counts-of-sexual-assault
"Committing any kind of sexual crimes is still a career ender no matter what side of the political aisle you're on."
Yeah, in the UK. Wish it was true here. E Jean Caroll is proof that it isn’t.
IL-2: State Senator Robert Peters is running to succeed Robin Kelly, who's running for U.S. Senate.
Much of this district is suburban, so if someone from there can consolidate the vote, they might be able to beat him. The best candidate would be Literally Anyone Else.
Is there a particular reason why you don’t like Peters?
Is it just because he’s a progressive? Or is there something else I’m missing?
Because he's a progressive? No, because he cosplays as a progressive. Rhetorically, he says the right things, but you can't count on him if you're a progressive, even in his district. This is not the person IL-2 needs to fight Trump/Musk.
I was mainly asking if there was some kind of scandal I wasn’t aware of.
By cosplaying, what do you mean? Has he taken specific actions that out him as not a progressive? Votes or such? I’m genuinely not aware, I’m just asking.
No scandal that I know of. By cosplay, I mean that he talks about "the people" but he doesn't deliver. He claims the mantle of progressive officials, but he constantly waits to see what the party tells him he should do. He hides out when things get tough. Pass.
Those are awfully general statements. Can you give any kind of specifics as to why we should oppose him in the primary?
I have had direct dealings with him and find that he is not willing to stick his neck out if he believes that powerful interests (party bosses, donors) are against something. In other words, he won't take a position that his constituents favor if his backers are opposed to it. That's not in the spirit of the state senate district he represents, and I can't believe he would be an effective advocate if he's elected to Congress. Support whomever you want, but know what you're getting--a standard issue Democratic vote on any issue, and in this district, it's possible to get someone with more backbone since the general election is not an issue.
Interesting. I'm not in Illinois (NY-17 is my district) but good to know regardless.
Elizabeth Warren endorsed Peggy Flanagan, marking her first major endorsement outside of Minnesota.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5298093-elizabeth-warren-peggy-flanagan-minnesota-senate-race/amp/
Peggy Flanagan is also my prefered candidate.
Don't get me wrong, Angie Craig is good but in this environment and this administration, Peggy Flanagan is so much better!!
Is Gov. Walz seeking a 3rd term? If so, he'll need a new running mate; as will Gov. Pritzker in Illinois!! 💙🇺🇲
What makes her so much better?
Much more of a more reliable Democrat on the issues, which is why big Minnesota names like Al Franken, Keith Ellison, Julie Blaha have endorsed her. 💙🇺🇲
Franken is controversial, and Ellison and Blaha barely kept their jobs last cycle.
That said, I do like Flanagan (and Craig as well; she will be missed in the House).
Omaha Mayor: Any thoughts on what might happen tonight? Obviously Stothert has the incumbency and cash advantages, but after three terms there might be some fatigue setting in (her 36-33 primary result seems lackluster after crushing it in 2021), and Ewing has the McDonnell endorsement, whatever it may be worth.
With about 47,000 votes in, Ewing leads 53.8%-46.2%. It still says "0% reporting" so maybe this is early vote? https://www.ketv.com/article/omaha-general-election-results-mayor-2025/64645995
Maine Gov:
Quite an interesting Democratic primary with 2 great candidates so far and more could jump in:
1. Shenna Bellows.
2. Angus King III (son of US Senator).
Should stay D, may the best candidate win!! 💙🇺🇲
I thought Troy Jackson had declared.
And forget governor, there needs to be a strong senate contender.
Troy Jackson is still exploring, apparently.
Would love a strong contender to end Susan's career after 30 years. 💙🇺🇲
I suspect that Troy Jackson is waiting to see what Jared Golden does. They are both from upstate Maine and if Golden leaves his house seat, I suspect that Jackson will be the Democratic candidate for the house. He won't run in the same race as Golden because they share the same base.
I will be shocked if Golden runs against Collins.
Just filled the oval for Beverly At-Large Councilor Hannah Bowen in the MA Essex-6 special general election. Bowen defeated Beverly Ward 1 Councilor Todd Rotondo 2,644 to 2,033 in the special primary on April 15. I voted for Rotondo because I saw him being very active in the community whereas Bowen seems to me more of a blank slate. But he was probably not well known outside his ward.
The Republicans recruited well for this election, and will be closer than the 66-32 Harris margin. Medley Long III is almost the perfect candidate: small businessman, two-term President of Beverly Chamber of Commerce, President of Beverly Homecoming (one of three major festivals in Beverly), VP Beverly Farms Improvement Society, Board Member of Beverly Holiday Parade, and more. His platform is helping small businesses and building more affordable housing. He will appeal to long-time Beverly residents who see his investment in the community. He should win Beverly Ward 6 (my ward), maybe Beverly Ward 4, and maybe Wenham Precinct 1. I would be surprised, but not shocked, if he won.
At 6pm, 631 votes cast in Beverly Ward 6. Polls close 8pm.
Thank you for a local perspective on a downballot race, can you clarify though, because you mentioned 3 names, that you voted for Bowen and Rotondo and then that Long was a well recruited Rephblican. I’m assuming you voted Rotondo (D) in the primary and Bowen (D) for the general? And Bowen’s opponent is Long (R) who got 2nd place in the primary in April. Is that right? And thank you for voting!
Omaha Mayor: results website for anyone interested! https://www.ketv.com/article/omaha-general-election-results-mayor-2025/64645995
Also, for City Council which person should we be hoping wins in each district?
1 other comment: It is truly the peak of hypocrisy by the GOP mayor Stothert to talk about transgender bathrooms in ads and on mailers, but then getting upset saying people care about only local issues when Ewing ties her to Trump. She fits perfectly in her party and I hope she goes down in flames tonight!
Seems like they're having a bit of a (to use an old Daily Kos Elections term) ganja break...
63,000 votes in and Ewing leads 54-46.
FWIW, the early in the day ED vote actually increased Ewing’s margin over Stothert from the early vote. She better hope the 2pm-8pm ED vote is all Republicans or she’s likely toast. Next vote count comes at 7:45 PST, 9:45 CST, 10:45 EST so we have to wait a while.
Candidate Votes Percent
EWING JR.
33,834 53.87%
STOTHERT
28,975 46.13%
Updated: 6 minutes ago
Since the source for this has no estimate for how much of the vote is in, I went to check prior elections as a reference. There were 97k votes in the last mayoral election in 2021, 99k in 2017, and 84k in 2013.
Assuming this year's total ends up in the 100k ballpark, the above data would represent about half of the total vote. But we don't know what the final total will be so there's decent error bars on that.
56-44 with 85k votes counted!!
Still the same vote totals but Ewing just got the check mark!
That goes back to the Swing State Project days.
Looks like we won! Ewing was also our candidate against Rep. Lee Terry way back in 2012. Our loss in 2017 against Stoehert was one of our few notable disappointments that year (along with GA-06).
Since I can’t embed anymore, something a little different about these special election results worth pointing out in the results: blue seats also outperformed Harris and the boost comes across rural, suburban and urban races, with the biggest overperformance in a D vs R race from a rural Trump stronghold (R+51 I think?) in OK.
Is it the ancestral Dem surprisingly strong OK Dem special elections or is there a rural backlash to the tariffs brewing? That’s one of the very few issues rural voters irrespective of party loyalty/ideology especially hate because everything already costs more than elsewhere and supply is low enough to begin with. Something to watch in future results imo.
Ethan C7
@ECaliberSeven
Welcome back to Special Elex Tuesday!
In what has become an utterly routine event, Dems once again MASSIVELY outran Harris, this time in rural Oklahoma (by 19%) and suburban Massachusetts (by 14%).
Dems are now outrunning Harris by an average of 11% in 2025's special elections.
My own addition: Stothert won her previous election in 2021 by 64-35 so this is nearly a 40 point shift dependent upon the ballots left to be counted.
So the 1st Dem running against OAN sweetheart Russell Fry in SC7, John Vincent, has dropped out due to apathetic dem base.
Apparently there are Dem challengers against Joe "You Lie" Wilson SC2 and potential SC Gov candidate Ralph Norman SC5.
https://share.newsbreak.com/d2k5lr65
I know we’re used to the endless election cycles where a few months after one ends, a new one begins for those few hyper aware election followers and fewer still for people who notice whether a candidate drops out running for office in May over 1.5 years from the midterm elections. But this isn’t exactly uncommon either. Some people don’t like running in an unwinnable district and decide to follow other career pursuits or drop down running to a lower office when they understand how much efforts it takes. Along with hundreds of other reasons: health, age, tragedy, new child, different paying job etc etc.
I’m absolutely not saying it’s a good thing, so don’t get me wrong, but this early in the cycle especially: it’s normal. Heck, we’ve seen candidates drop out a month before the actual election day. Someone hopefully will step up to run in their district sometime in the next year or so candidates have to file to run before the deadline in most states.