Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is showcasing a new internal poll that went into the field following his arrest outside an immigration detention facility that puts him within four percentage points of the leading candidate in the race for Democratic gubernatorial nomination, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair).
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is showcasing a new internal poll that went into the field following his arrest outside an immigration detention facility that puts him within four percentage points of the leading candidate in the race for Democratic gubernatorial nomination, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair).
The brushfire poll shows Sherrill leading Baraka, 20.7% to 16.5%, with Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop in the third with 12.9%.
They’re followed by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) with 7.3%, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller with 7.1%, and former Senate President Steve Sweeney with 5.1%.
Mikie Sherrill is the most electable Democrat running in the primary, stellar candidate in the mold of Abigail Spanberger in nearby Virginia.
Trump today endorsed 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli for another try.
Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli would be somewhere between Lean D & Likely D and her and Spanberger jointly winning in November would be a hell of an Election Night sweep, devastating Republicans in this political environment!! 💙🇺🇲
Sherrill is good, but Baraka might have caught the break he needed to break out of a crowded primary. This will be a good test if Democratic voters regardless of ideology want a fighter.
And Sherrill hasn’t begun running ads yet from what I’ve read. He got his news bump and then it’ll be overwhelmed eventually unless this bump translates to fundraising.
Sherrill may still have a good GOTV machine. She doesn’t need ads to run a sophisticated ground game but they certainly can help drive the enthusiasm and fundraising.
I can see how fundraising could increase for Baraka but there’s also 3 1/2 weeks until the primary election is held. Better than if the election were held the following week but hard to know at this point.
Given how close 2021 was, I'm praying Mikie Sherrill is the nominee. Ras Baraka is way too risky given New Jersey's voting trends in the past few years and I can really see Ciattarelli unfortunately pulling a Christie against Baraka instead of Sherrill.
Way too much at stake, as Ciattarelli has promised a state-level DOGE in Trenton, and that's the last thing they would want or need.
New Jersey is not California, and electability matters, so playing it safe should be a no-brainer!! 💙🇺🇲
NJ, along with TX and NY, is a state I'm waiting for more elections to see if the recent shifts there are a new normal or an aberration.
I'm not particularly worried about a repeat of 2021. That year was the peak of our electoral vulnerability during the Biden years. It was before the Dobbs decision, after Covid didn't disappear simply because we elected Biden, after supply chain pressures started causing inflation on a global scale.
It's difficult to imagine this year's elections going as poorly as 2021's elections did.
EDIT: I got my timeline wrong, Russia's invasion was early 2022, not 2021.
Why did those shifts happen? It was primarily due to a huge swing in naturalized immigrants, non-white voting groups, young voters and Independents towards Republicans due to the inflation and immigration mess. Democrats have historically done well with these three groups. The precinct data is quite interesting too. Some states had a red shift similar to 2024 in 2022 while Dobbs held the line in others. New England, Texas, Florida and California are the most diverse places and you had the biggest shifts there. It was more muted in Nevada and Arizona seemingly due to huge electoral investments in ads and outreach.
Trump approval seems to have crashed among the same groups and they favor Democrats on the generic ballot again but there is a gap between his approval and the generic ballot due to trust deficit among these groups according to one comparison I saw. The change in th generic ballot is primarily due to their swing. I think there should be another huge swing in 2026 if Democrats get their act together due to this as well as Democrats turnout advantage. I expect worse perfomance in NY than 2020 due to Hochul's unpopularity though. I also expect that Democrats will lose in Florida but nevertheless there'll be huge swing considering their own insurance crisis, cost of living crisis, exodus, ICE deportation issues now since immigration and inflation can't be blamed on Democrats anymore.
"I expect worse perfomance in NY than 2020 due to Hobbs' unpopularity though." You mean Hochul. Is anyone actually primarying her? It's ridiculous if no-one is.
I actually don't expect worse performances from Democrats in NY (or most places) than in 2022, if only because of Trump's unpopularity and he serving as a motivator for Dems to turn out. Especially so if the NY GOP nominates someone like Stefanik who is probably too conservative to win statewide even in a red year. And that would probably mislead Hochul and many others in the state party leadership into thinking all is well again.
Honestly, if Republican primary voters had been disciplined enough to nominate a bland public-administrator type instead of election denier Lee Zeldin, they could have defeated Hochul.
I don't see them voting with discipline next year either.
I disagree with both portions of your statement. First, I don't think there are too many stronger statewide Republican NY candidates than Zeldin. If he couldn't do it, no one can. Second, NY is still too blue to elect a Republican governor. No way Hochul was losing that race and I reject the idea that she's vulnerable this year either.
I know that governor's races (especially the off-off-year ones) can be sui generis, but it's hard to see NJ-Gov falling into Republican hands in 2025 when they couldn't pull it off (despite considerably overperforming) in 2021.
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is showcasing a new internal poll that went into the field following his arrest outside an immigration detention facility that puts him within four percentage points of the leading candidate in the race for Democratic gubernatorial nomination, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair).
The brushfire poll shows Sherrill leading Baraka, 20.7% to 16.5%, with Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop in the third with 12.9%.
They’re followed by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) with 7.3%, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller with 7.1%, and former Senate President Steve Sweeney with 5.1%.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/baraka-internal-poll-puts-him-4-points-behind-sherrill/
This is actually a bigger lead for Sherrill than she had in Baraka's March internal. Both have improved their numbers.
Mikie Sherrill is the most electable Democrat running in the primary, stellar candidate in the mold of Abigail Spanberger in nearby Virginia.
Trump today endorsed 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli for another try.
Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli would be somewhere between Lean D & Likely D and her and Spanberger jointly winning in November would be a hell of an Election Night sweep, devastating Republicans in this political environment!! 💙🇺🇲
Sherrill is good, but Baraka might have caught the break he needed to break out of a crowded primary. This will be a good test if Democratic voters regardless of ideology want a fighter.
See what Sarah Longwell at The Bulwark found when she asked a focus group of Dem voters for what I mean: https://youtu.be/QbEd5BiaoWM?si=rnx-ea4vleMcwoWc
But Baraka's proposals are to the left of most and I'm not sure if they are doable.
Right now, I see Ras Baraka’s rise in polls more of a surge in interest than anything else.
Unless there’s something I’m missing.
And Sherrill hasn’t begun running ads yet from what I’ve read. He got his news bump and then it’ll be overwhelmed eventually unless this bump translates to fundraising.
Sherrill may still have a good GOTV machine. She doesn’t need ads to run a sophisticated ground game but they certainly can help drive the enthusiasm and fundraising.
I can see how fundraising could increase for Baraka but there’s also 3 1/2 weeks until the primary election is held. Better than if the election were held the following week but hard to know at this point.
Given how close 2021 was, I'm praying Mikie Sherrill is the nominee. Ras Baraka is way too risky given New Jersey's voting trends in the past few years and I can really see Ciattarelli unfortunately pulling a Christie against Baraka instead of Sherrill.
Way too much at stake, as Ciattarelli has promised a state-level DOGE in Trenton, and that's the last thing they would want or need.
New Jersey is not California, and electability matters, so playing it safe should be a no-brainer!! 💙🇺🇲
Baraka's proposals would likely fail even in California or Vermont.
Which ones? But the thing is, ok, so he won't get what he wants. In that case, he might not be effectively very left-wing as governor.
NJ, along with TX and NY, is a state I'm waiting for more elections to see if the recent shifts there are a new normal or an aberration.
I'm not particularly worried about a repeat of 2021. That year was the peak of our electoral vulnerability during the Biden years. It was before the Dobbs decision, after Covid didn't disappear simply because we elected Biden, after supply chain pressures started causing inflation on a global scale.
It's difficult to imagine this year's elections going as poorly as 2021's elections did.
EDIT: I got my timeline wrong, Russia's invasion was early 2022, not 2021.
Why did those shifts happen? It was primarily due to a huge swing in naturalized immigrants, non-white voting groups, young voters and Independents towards Republicans due to the inflation and immigration mess. Democrats have historically done well with these three groups. The precinct data is quite interesting too. Some states had a red shift similar to 2024 in 2022 while Dobbs held the line in others. New England, Texas, Florida and California are the most diverse places and you had the biggest shifts there. It was more muted in Nevada and Arizona seemingly due to huge electoral investments in ads and outreach.
Trump approval seems to have crashed among the same groups and they favor Democrats on the generic ballot again but there is a gap between his approval and the generic ballot due to trust deficit among these groups according to one comparison I saw. The change in th generic ballot is primarily due to their swing. I think there should be another huge swing in 2026 if Democrats get their act together due to this as well as Democrats turnout advantage. I expect worse perfomance in NY than 2020 due to Hochul's unpopularity though. I also expect that Democrats will lose in Florida but nevertheless there'll be huge swing considering their own insurance crisis, cost of living crisis, exodus, ICE deportation issues now since immigration and inflation can't be blamed on Democrats anymore.
"I expect worse perfomance in NY than 2020 due to Hobbs' unpopularity though." You mean Hochul. Is anyone actually primarying her? It's ridiculous if no-one is.
And did they mean worse than 2022?
I actually don't expect worse performances from Democrats in NY (or most places) than in 2022, if only because of Trump's unpopularity and he serving as a motivator for Dems to turn out. Especially so if the NY GOP nominates someone like Stefanik who is probably too conservative to win statewide even in a red year. And that would probably mislead Hochul and many others in the state party leadership into thinking all is well again.
Honestly, if Republican primary voters had been disciplined enough to nominate a bland public-administrator type instead of election denier Lee Zeldin, they could have defeated Hochul.
I don't see them voting with discipline next year either.
I disagree with both portions of your statement. First, I don't think there are too many stronger statewide Republican NY candidates than Zeldin. If he couldn't do it, no one can. Second, NY is still too blue to elect a Republican governor. No way Hochul was losing that race and I reject the idea that she's vulnerable this year either.
Yeah, I've long been of the belief that Covid is what tipped the scale for Youngkin in VA and caused Ciatarelli's overperformance in NJ.
None of us had any idea at that point that the "social end" of the pandemic was only a few months away...
Not quite CA, but if running the Mayor of Newark could threaten a Republican flip in New Jersey, the Democrats are in big trouble in 2026, not the Democratic wave cautiously forecast by G. Elliott Morris: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-have-a-huge-turnout-advantage
I know that governor's races (especially the off-off-year ones) can be sui generis, but it's hard to see NJ-Gov falling into Republican hands in 2025 when they couldn't pull it off (despite considerably overperforming) in 2021.
Cory Booker was the mayor of Newark.
He is much more mainstream than Ras Baraka, though.
I don’t think it’s ideology that makes Baraka a tougher sell in a general election.
What do you think it is, then?
Unlike Booker and Obama, he comes off as “too black” for some white New Jerseyeans.
It seems surprising for it to be that close.