Morning Digest: An upset may be brewing in an Arizona special election

A congressman's daughter had the inside track. Instead, we might have a barnburner.

The candidates at a Democratic debate on May 27, 2025, from left: Adelita Grijalva, Daniel Hernandez, Deja Foxx, Jose Malvido, and Patrick Harris (credit: Arizona PBS screenshot)

Leading Off

AZ-07

An upset may be brewing in a primary taking place on Tuesday ahead of a special election in Tucson, where the daughter of a longtime congressman faces an unexpectedly stiff fight against a Gen Z political organizer in the race for her late father's seat.

Adelita Grijalva joined the contest for Arizona's vacant 7th District on the last day in March with the benefit of a beloved family name and her own long record of service in public office.

Her father, Raul Grijalva, had earned a reputation as an outspoken progressive during his half-century political career, which was capped by more than two decades in Congress—a tenure that came to a close with his death in early March following a lung cancer diagnosis.

The younger Grijalva in many respects matched her father's arc, first serving on Tucson's school board, then winning a bid for the Board of Supervisors in Pima County—both positions that her father had held.

After entering the special election, she earned a raft of endorsements from influential politicians and organizations, including both of Arizona's U.S. senators, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, the pro-choice group EMILYs List, a large number of labor unions, and more.

Two other notable Democrats also jumped into the race for the 7th, a sprawling, solidly blue district that stretches across nearly all of the state's southern border, from Yuma to Tucson, with a jog northward to the Phoenix area.

One was former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez, who had unsuccessfully run for Congress once before; the other was 25-year-old Deja Foxx, a progressive organizer with a large social media following.

Both rivals, however, appeared to be afterthoughts. In an early April internal poll released by her campaign, Grijalva enjoyed a wide 49-11 lead over Hernandez, with Foxx barely registering at 5%. Given Grijalva's many built-in advantages, there was little reason to think she wouldn't cruise to victory.

But Foxx shook up that narrative just before the Fourth of July when she shared her own polling data that gave Grijalva a much slimmer 43-35 edge, with Hernandez at 9—numbers that no one ever contradicted with another survey.

Even as the contest appeared to tighten, Grijalva led the way in ad spending, as AdImpact noted. She was also the only candidate to benefit from third-party TV ads, with groups like the Congressional Progressive Caucus and the Working Families Party stepping up on her behalf. In all, Grijalva's allies reported deploying more than $650,000 to boost her, with nearly a quarter of a million dollars coming from a new super PAC called Progressive Promise.

Foxx, meanwhile, was aided by about $250,000 in outside spending, including $150,000 on digital ads by Leaders We Deserve, the organization founded by activist David Hogg. But it was an outlay of about $200,000 from another new super PAC, Tucson Families Fed Up, that seemed to draw blood.

In the final month of the primary, the PAC began spending on calls, mailers, and online ads attacking Grijalva, with a small portion directed toward aiding Foxx. The infusion appeared to provoke an angry response from the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, one of Grijava's most high-profile backers, which charged in a press release, "Outside Groups Attempting to Disenfranchise Latino Voters."

"Anyone who sees Arizona's 7th district as anything other than a fight for Latino representation in America is enabling all those who seek to disenfranchise our community and silence our voices," said the group's chair, California Rep. Linda Sanchez.

It's not clear exactly why the CHC's PAC views third-party spending as an attempt to disenfranchise Latinos, who make up 60% of the district. The district was, however, represented by a Latino ever since it was first created following the 2000 census: Raul Grijalva, who is of Mexican descent. Like the Grijalvas, Hernandez is also Mexican American, while Foxx is Filipino American.

Ethnicity has not been the only dividing line in the contest, though. At a time when many Democratic voters are demanding a break with the past, both Foxx and Hernandez have criticized Grijalva for seeking to capitalize on her family ties.

"People are hungry for change candidates, they're tired of legacy last names," Foxx told CNN in an interview earlier this month. "The political establishment is not as strong as the people who make up this party."

The attacks appear to have frustrated Grijalva.

"Up until the last, what, month and a half, the words 'Grijalva' and 'establishment' have never been used in the same sentence, ever," she said to CNN. "Unless it's 'Grijalva fights against the establishment.'"

Tuesday's primary is also likely to be a relatively low-turnout affair, and thanks to Arizona's robust adoption of mail voting, most voters have already cast ballots. (The forecast calls for a high of 101 degrees in Tucson for the election.) Whoever wins the nomination will be the heavy favorite in the Sept. 23rd general election, but the eventual victor will also have to go before voters for a full term next year.

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Zohran's pollster pulls back the curtain on how he won

2Q Fundraising

Federal candidates are required to file financial disclosures for the second quarter of the year with the FEC on Tuesday at midnight Eastern Time. As soon as those reports are available, The Downballot will bring you complete charts of fundraising data for all notable Senate and House candidates across the country.

• CO-Sen: John Hickenlooper (D-inc): $1.5 million raised, $2.7 million cash on hand

• GA-Sen: John King (R): $520,000 raised (in seven weeks) (not the CNN guy)

• ME-Sen: Susan Collins (R-inc): $2.4 million raised, $5.25 million cash on hand

• OH-Sen: Jon Husted (R-inc): $2.8 million raised

• CO-Gov: Michael Bennet (D): $1.7 million raised, $1.3 million cash on hand

• AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc): $1 million raised

• CA-40: Young Kim (R-inc): $2 million raised, $4 million cash on hand

• FL-16: Vern Buchanan (R-inc): $415,000 raised, $1.45 million cash on hand

• KY-04: Thomas Massie (R-inc): $584,000 raised, $1.7 million cash on hand

• TX-38: Wesley Hunt (R-inc): $1.1 million raised, $3 million cash on hand (considering Senate bid)

Senate

MA-Sen

Democratic Rep. Jake Auchincloss on Sunday once again did not rule out challenging Sen. Ed Markey for renomination, even as he maintained that he was "running for reelection to Congress."

Auchincloss, who made his latest comments in an interview with WCVB, chuckled when he was told, "I didn't hear a no." The congressman, though, did volunteer that he believed that questions about the 79-year-old incumbent's age were fair, adding that it was up to voters to decide "what they think is the priority."

TX-Sen

Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt's campaign is now airing TV ads well outside of his home base in the Houston suburbs, a move that comes as the prospective Senate candidate is alluding to Attorney General Ken Paxton's pending divorce on social media.

Hunt on Friday tweeted out a picture of himself, his wife, and three children with the caption, "Family, Faith, Freedom." The tweet did not mention Paxton, but observers noted that Hunt published it one day after state Sen. Angela Paxton filed divorce papers alleging that the attorney general had been unfaithful to her.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports incumbent John Cornyn, responded to the divorce news with a statement declaring, "What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting." An unnamed Paxton ally, though, tells NOTUS that donors responded differently and powered the candidate to the "second best day of small-donor fundraising" of his campaign.

Hunt, who has yet to commit to joining the race, does not mention either Paxton or Cornyn in his newest ad. The spot instead features audio of Donald Trump praising Hunt as a "man with an unlimited future" and touts his service in the Army.

The Dallas Morning News says the commercials will air in the Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio media markets. Data from The Downballot shows that just under two-thirds of all Texans live in one of these three markets.

Governors

CT-Gov

State Rep. Josh Elliott announced Monday that he would seek the Democratic nomination for governor, a post currently held by Democrat Ned Lamont. The governor has not yet said if he'll seek a third term, though he sounded likely to run last week.

Elliott, who did not mention Lamont in his launch video, instead called for "fix[ing] out tax structure so we can invest in things like housing, education, and our health care system." Last month, though, Elliott took Lamont to task for unexpectedly vetoing a bill to create more affordable housing that his own team had negotiated with lawmakers.

Morning Digest: Surprise veto sparks talk of primary challenge to Connecticut's governor

But Elliott, who is one of the more progressive members of the legislature, also indicated that he wants to avoid an ugly primary that could give Republicans an opening in this blue state. He told the CT Mirror last week, "The goal is not to dirty Ned to the point where he can't win."

FL-Gov

A new poll shows Florida Rep. Byron Donalds defeating former TV anchor Casey DeSantis 35-27 in a hypothetical Republican primary for governor, with Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson taking just 3%.

St. Pete Polls, which conducted this survey for Florida Politics, finds Donalds doing considerably better in a scenario where state Sen. Jay Collins runs instead of DeSantis: Donalds leads Simpson 44-4, with Collins grabbing a mere 2%. Donalds, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, still has the GOP primary to himself as he runs to replace termed-out Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is Casey DeSantis' husband.

SC-Gov

Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette announced Monday that she was entering what's turning into a busy Republican primary for governor of South Carolina. This office is held by Republican Henry McMaster, who is termed out next year.

Evette, who spent her career in the business world, ran for office for the first time in 2018 when McMaster chose her to be his running mate. Their ticket prevailed that year, and they went on to win a second full term in 2022.

Evette joins Attorney General Alan Wilson and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell in a primary that might grow again before the end of the month.

Rep. Ralph Norman is set to make his own announcement on July 27, though he hasn't said what he'll be doing. Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin, however, flags that Norman raised a mere $25,000 for his federal campaign account during the second quarter of the year. Rep. Nancy Mace has also talked about running for governor, though she hasn't yet committed to a bid.

Morning Digest: Why do GOP primaries keep getting so nasty before they even start?

House

CT-01

Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin is considering challenging longtime Rep. John Larson in next year's Democratic primary, Kevin Rennie writes in Daily Reductions. Bronin, who led Connecticut's capital city from 2016 until the start of last year, has yet to say anything publicly about his interest.

Larson drew a primary challenge just before the Fourth of July holiday from Ruth Fortune, a member of Hartford's Board of Education. The incumbent, who turns 77 next week, responded to Fortune's entry by saying he "fully intend[s] to announce my candidacy" after the state's November elections for municipal offices.

Morning Digest: A senior House Democrat lands a primary challenger after health scares

HI-01

State Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole says he's considering challenging Rep. Ed Case, who has long been one of the more conservative members of the Democratic caucus, in next year's primary for Hawaii's 1st District.

Keohokalole didn't highlight any particular issues where he disagreed with Case, but he said he wasn't sure if "we are getting the representation that really represents the values of residents in our community." He informed Hawaii News Now that he would decide "soon."

But Case, who is 72, won't be going anywhere willingly.

"Next year, the voters of Hawaii's great First Congressional District will be asked to decide: why replace my seniority, experience, relationships, influence and accomplishments, including through my Appropriations Committee, as well as my constituent engagement and services, especially in such highly uncertain and challenging times," the incumbent said in a statement to the Star Advertiser.

Case, who previously represented the 2nd District from 2002 to 2007, restarted his stalled political career in 2018 when he won Hawaii's other House seat. Case, who was a supporter of the war in Iraq during his first stint, has continued to frustrate his party during his second go-round. Earlier this year, for example, he was one of just four Democrats to support a GOP bill to require prospective voters to prove their citizenship before registering.

Keohokalole acknowledged that defeating Case, who has had no trouble winning renomination ever since his return to Congress, would be a difficult task. The congressman, however, doesn't appear to be doing much to prepare for a potentially expensive primary: He brought in just $132,000 during the second quarter of the year, and ended June with $504,000 in the bank.

The 1st District, which includes most of Honolulu, favored Kamala Harris 62-37 last year, so the Democratic nominee should have no trouble holding it.

IA-02

Democratic state Rep. Lindsay James is "seriously considering" challenging Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, the lawmaker tells the Gazette.

James' comments came about two weeks after former U.S. Attorney Kevin Techau ended his campaign and left Democrats without a viable candidate. Iowa's 2nd District, which is based in the northeastern corner of the state, backed Donald Trump 54-44 last year.

IL-02

Former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. has created a new federal fundraising committee, though he has yet to announce a bid for his old House seat.

Jackson represented previous incarnations of Illinois' 2nd District from 1995 until he resigned in 2012 after admitting to spending $750,000 in campaign contributions on personal purchases. Jackson, who served a year-and-a-half in prison, is considering running to replace Rep. Robin Kelly, a fellow Democrat who is now running for the Senate.

MI-04

State Sen. Sean McCann announced Monday that he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga in southwestern Michigan's 4th Congressional District.

Calculations from The Downballot show that Donald Trump carried this constituency by a relatively close 52-46 margin in 2024, and Democrats think they could have an opening in a strong year—especially since the incumbent may not stick around to defend it.

Huizenga is considering a bid for the Senate, and he's stubbornly refused to listen to party leaders' calls to remain where he is. The congressman said in June that he'd make a final decision sometime this month.

McCann entered the race three months after attorney Jessica Swartz, who lost to Huizenga 55-43 last year, launched a second campaign. Diop Harris, a onetime staffer for former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, also entered the race on June 21, though his announcement generated little attention.

MI-08

Navy veteran Amir Hassan on Sunday became the first notable Republican to announce a campaign against freshman Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet in Michigan's swingy 8th District.

Donald Trump carried this constituency, which includes Flint and the area known as the Tri-Cities, by a 50-48 margin, four years after Joe Biden took it by the same spread. McDonald Rivet, though, ran well ahead of the top of the ticket and scored a 51-45 victory against Paul Junge, a frequent candidate with weak ties to the region.

Hassan, notably, launched his campaign by emphasizing how he grew up in Flint. The candidate, who would be the first Muslim Republican to serve in Congress, does not appear to have previously run for office.

PA-10

Former TV anchor Janelle Stelson announced her long-anticipated rematch campaign against far-right Rep. Scott Perry on Monday.

Last year, Stelson held Perry, a former leader of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, to a 51-49 victory as Donald Trump was carrying Pennsylvania's 10th District by a wider 52-47 spread. Fellow Democrats quickly urged Stelson to run again, and she launched her second campaign with an endorsement from EMILYs List.

A prominent outside group also published a poll the same day Stelson launched, arguing that the new candidate is well-positioned to flip this central Pennsylvania constituency. Public Policy Polling, working on behalf of House Majority PAC, finds Stelson ahead 46-43 in a survey conducted last week.

Stelson, though, may not have the primary to herself. Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas said last week that he's also considering taking on Perry.

TN-05

Mike Cortese, a member of Nashville's Metropolitan Council, announced Sunday that he'd seek the Democratic nomination to challenge scandal-plagued Republican Rep. Andy Ogles.

Cortese, who identified as an independent during a campaign for local office in 2023, is the first notable candidate to challenge Ogles in a constituency the GOP aggressively gerrymandered in 2022. Tennessee's 5th District, which includes southern Nashville and its southern and eastern suburbs, backed Donald Trump 58-40 last year.

TN-07

Outgoing GOP Rep. Mark Green has endorsed former state cabinet member Matt Van Epps, a fellow Army veteran, in the packed special election to replace him.

The contest for Tennessee's soon-to-be-vacant 7th District cannot be officially scheduled until Green's resignation takes effect on July 20, but Republican Gov. Bill Lee has chosen some tentative dates. A Lee spokesperson tells the Nashville Banner that the state intends to hold a primary on Oct. 7, followed by a general election on Dec. 2.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Monday that he would campaign as an independent in the November general election for mayor of New York.

Cuomo sought to frame the contest as a simple choice between him and Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, who dramatically upset him in last month's Democratic primary, but he got another unwelcome reminder earlier in the day that there are three more candidates on the ballot.

Morning Digest: Mamdani defeats Cuomo in massive upset

A poll from Data for Progress on behalf of pro-Mamdani groups showed the Democratic nominee defeating Cuomo ​​40-24 in a five-way general election. Independent Mayor Eric Adams and Republican Curtis Sliwa take 15% and 14%, respectively, while unaffiliated candidate Jim Walden notches just 1%. Only 5% were undecided.

Other recent polls have found similar results in a general election where—unlike in the primary—there's no ranked-choice voting. Mamdani's critics have urged his opponents to consolidate behind one option, but so far, no one wants to be the first to bail.

Adams in particular reiterated on Sunday night that he's not about to quit. The mayor responded to NY1's report about Cuomo's upcoming announcement with a statement accusing him of wanting to "FORCE A BLACK ELECTED OUT OF OFFICE."