D +15 on a generic congressional ballot of 28 swing districts after being told of ACA premium increases.
This is a Republican poll and a great sign. I’m surprised that they are specifically polling the political effects of the impending ACA premium increase as there are so many issues they could choose. I guess this is what …
D +15 on a generic congressional ballot of 28 swing districts after being told of ACA premium increases.
This is a Republican poll and a great sign. I’m surprised that they are specifically polling the political effects of the impending ACA premium increase as there are so many issues they could choose. I guess this is what scares them the most. Also, why conduct the poll now, AFTER they passed the budget monstrosity? I’d poll beforehand but I suppose they want to know how screwed they are regardless.
These arrogant bastards all believed Mitch McConnell ("seen here watching an orphanage burn down on Christmas Eve") when he said that voters would forget it by fall 2026—and to be fair, there's plenty of precedent for believing that.
The idea that the effects wouldn't be felt until after the midterm was always total fantasy pundit-brained babble, though. (The sticker shock and cancellation notices will start hitting well before.)
It's up to our candidates and our advertising to keep voters from forgetting it when fall 2026 arrives. And informing voters who aren't presently paying attention.
Great news. My swing district is represented by Juan Ciscomani, a trump toadie. In this district 158K are on Medicaid, and 32K receive subsidies for the ACA. Almost 30K people receive SNAP benefits in AZ CD-06, and of those 17K are at risk of losing some amount for SNAP. Ciscomani threw his most ardent supporters under the bus, not to mention that he's an immigrant who has pulled up the ladder behind him.
To me, the key import of this R poll is the straight generic question, asked before voters are told about the tax credit. When asked the standard generic question, among all RVs in these 28 districts, Dems lead by 3. Among most motivated voters, Dems lead by 7.
And the choice of districts seems sound: "The 28 Congressional Districts surveyed include fifteen where the Republican won in 2024 by a margin of 5% or less and thirteen won by both the Democrat and President Trump. In aggregate, the Congressional vote was tied and President Trump won these districts by 4 points. It will be these districts that decide control of the House after the midterm election."
It was D +3 with all voters and D +7 with “motivated” voters before any issues were mentioned. That is still encouraging but shows that we really need a clear message and narrative if we want a landslide midterm.
The tariffs are kicking in according to latest economic reports. I hope that Trump doesn't turbocharge it on August 1, we have to live here, after all.
Assuming I’m reading Wikipedia correctly that gives us the following list of R-held seats with Trump24 margin in brackets:
AK-AL (13.14)
AZ-01 (3.11)
AZ-06 (0.75)
CA-41 (5.93)
CO-03 (9.73)
CO-08 (1.83)
IA-01 (8.47)
IA-03 (4.41)
MI-07 (1.28)
NE-02 (-4.62)
PA-07 (3.20)
PA-08 (8.50)
PA-10 (5.23)
VA-02 (0.25)
WI-03 (7.40)
I wish we had access to the crosstabs of just the above 15 seats, but the fact that they’re such a good mix of suburban and rural; diverse and more WWC - is a great sign that gains next year might not have as low of a ceiling as I initially suspected
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000198-0adb-d1ba-a7ba-fbfb3de90000
D +15 on a generic congressional ballot of 28 swing districts after being told of ACA premium increases.
This is a Republican poll and a great sign. I’m surprised that they are specifically polling the political effects of the impending ACA premium increase as there are so many issues they could choose. I guess this is what scares them the most. Also, why conduct the poll now, AFTER they passed the budget monstrosity? I’d poll beforehand but I suppose they want to know how screwed they are regardless.
These arrogant bastards all believed Mitch McConnell ("seen here watching an orphanage burn down on Christmas Eve") when he said that voters would forget it by fall 2026—and to be fair, there's plenty of precedent for believing that.
The idea that the effects wouldn't be felt until after the midterm was always total fantasy pundit-brained babble, though. (The sticker shock and cancellation notices will start hitting well before.)
It's up to our candidates and our advertising to keep voters from forgetting it when fall 2026 arrives. And informing voters who aren't presently paying attention.
Considering the pains from our delayed rollout of the ACA, they might have made things worse for themselves with their own intentional delays.
Now it stays in the news cycle for longer. People see more of it and will get more pissed off or be more likely to hear of it in the first place.
Great news. My swing district is represented by Juan Ciscomani, a trump toadie. In this district 158K are on Medicaid, and 32K receive subsidies for the ACA. Almost 30K people receive SNAP benefits in AZ CD-06, and of those 17K are at risk of losing some amount for SNAP. Ciscomani threw his most ardent supporters under the bus, not to mention that he's an immigrant who has pulled up the ladder behind him.
To me, the key import of this R poll is the straight generic question, asked before voters are told about the tax credit. When asked the standard generic question, among all RVs in these 28 districts, Dems lead by 3. Among most motivated voters, Dems lead by 7.
And the choice of districts seems sound: "The 28 Congressional Districts surveyed include fifteen where the Republican won in 2024 by a margin of 5% or less and thirteen won by both the Democrat and President Trump. In aggregate, the Congressional vote was tied and President Trump won these districts by 4 points. It will be these districts that decide control of the House after the midterm election."
Informed ballot polls shouldn't really be taken so seriously.
It was D +3 with all voters and D +7 with “motivated” voters before any issues were mentioned. That is still encouraging but shows that we really need a clear message and narrative if we want a landslide midterm.
Why not a Democratic "Contract with America"? New Dems and Progs could work something out.
ACA premium increases kick in at the end of the year, the Medicaid cuts don't come into effect until after the midterms.
The tariffs are kicking in according to latest economic reports. I hope that Trump doesn't turbocharge it on August 1, we have to live here, after all.
Trump turbocharging it would be extremely helpful for us politically. Voters back Dems when Republicans screw the economy up.
It will be very bad for the working class. Tariffs are one of the most regressive taxes.
Sure. To echo Patt, Republicans are always bad for the working class.
And yet, perhaps masochistically, a huge swathe of the working class votes for Trump and MAGA Republicans. Absolutely amazing!
Which is every time there is a Republican president.
And then right back to Republicans /facepalm
Assuming I’m reading Wikipedia correctly that gives us the following list of R-held seats with Trump24 margin in brackets:
AK-AL (13.14)
AZ-01 (3.11)
AZ-06 (0.75)
CA-41 (5.93)
CO-03 (9.73)
CO-08 (1.83)
IA-01 (8.47)
IA-03 (4.41)
MI-07 (1.28)
NE-02 (-4.62)
PA-07 (3.20)
PA-08 (8.50)
PA-10 (5.23)
VA-02 (0.25)
WI-03 (7.40)
I wish we had access to the crosstabs of just the above 15 seats, but the fact that they’re such a good mix of suburban and rural; diverse and more WWC - is a great sign that gains next year might not have as low of a ceiling as I initially suspected