Morning Digest: A one-time rising star in Florida politics seeks a comeback

Ex-Rep. Stephanie Murphy could once again become one of the most influential Democrats in the Sunshine State

Florida Democrat Stephanie Murphy (at center) (credit: Stephanie Murphy campaign site)

Leading Off

Orange County, FL Mayor

Former Rep. Stephanie Murphy, who was one of the most prominent Democrats in Florida just a few years ago, announced on Wednesday that she was joining next year's race for mayor of Orange County.

Murphy is running in an officially nonpartisan election to succeed incumbent Jerry Demings, a fellow Democrat who is prohibited from seeking a third term. Orange County, which includes Orlando and several nearby communities, has remained a left-leaning bastion even as the Sunshine State has swung hard to the right, and its next mayor could become one of Florida's most influential Democrats—much as Murphy once was.

Murphy first attracted national attention in 2016 when, as a former Defense Department official, she challenged longtime Republican Rep. John Mica in the 7th Congressional District, which had just become considerably more competitive under a new court-ordered map. The 12-term incumbent, though, didn't take his opponent seriously.

Mica bragged to Politico in the final weeks of the race that, while Democrats had spent $3 million against him, "[W]e haven't had that kind of money … nor would we waste that kind of money." (Mica was not one to waste anything: The piece also described how the Republican "obsessively hordes throwaway coffee cups in his office and home, insisting that his companions reuse the same paper or Styrofoam carries because 'it's recyclable!'")

Murphy, though, benefited from heavy Democratic spending, and she ran ads in which then-President Barack Obama talked about how her family fled communist Vietnam by boat when she was a baby. The effort paid off, and Murphy's upset victory over Mica was a bright spot for Democrats on an otherwise gutting night that saw Donald Trump unexpectedly win the White House.

Murphy, who was the first Vietnamese American woman elected to Congress, became a prominent moderate voice in the Democratic caucus, as well as a prospective statewide candidate. But while she easily won reelection twice, she unexpectedly announced late in 2021 that she would not run for anything the next year.

The congresswoman insisted she wasn't leaving because she feared that the GOP-run legislature would gerrymander her district—though it did just that a few months later—and instead said she needed to spend more time with her family.

But Murphy, who was a leader of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, also expressed frustration with liberal Democrats and argued that the Biden administration needed "an increased emphasis on pragmatic solutions—as opposed to progressive pipe dreams."

Murphy launched her comeback campaign on Wednesday with a video touting her as a bipartisan figure who has "demonstrated the ability to work with anybody who's willing to work with them." The new candidate went on to focus on local concerns like affordable housing and "smart growth that doesn't mean more traffic."

Murphy, though, isn't the only one competing in the August 2026 primary to replace Demings. Two county officials, Clerk of Courts Tiffany Moore Russell and Commissioner Mayra Uribe, were already running as Democrats, while businessman Chris Messina identifies as a Republican.

One person who will not be running, though, is former Rep. Val Demings, who is married to the outgoing mayor. Demings, who was the Democratic nominee against then-Sen. Marco Rubio in 2022, announced last month that she'd decided not to seek the post.

Candidates need to win a majority of the vote in the first round in order to avoid a runoff next November. Kamala Harris carried Orange County 56-43 last year, though the officially nonpartisan nature of this race could incentivize Republicans to make a serious effort to flip the office.

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The Downballot Podcast

Zohran's pollster pulls back the curtain on how he won

Zohran Mamdani's stunning upset in last month's primary is still reverberating, which is why we were eager to talk with his pollster, Jane Rayburn of Workbench Strategy, on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to understand just how he pulled it off. Rayburn pulls back the curtain to explain how her firm captured the sentiments of a radically reshaped electorate, why Mamdani wanted a two-person race, and when she knew he could actually win. Plus, the challenges of polling a ranked-choice contest!

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also delve into two major Republicans who announced retirements just before the Fourth of July: Thom Tillis in North Carolina and Don Bacon in Nebraska. Why are they bailing? Who has the inside track to succeed them? And what exactly is Lara Trump's job? We do our level best to answer all of these questions!

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

2Q Fundraising

• GA-Sen: Buddy Carter (R): $1.1 million raised, additional $2 million self-funded, $4.1 million cash on hand

• IA-Sen: Zach Wahls (D): $650,000 raised (in three weeks)

• NH-Sen: Chris Pappas (D): $1.8 million raised, $2 million cash on hand

• GA-Gov: Derrick Jackson (D): $9,000 raised (in one month), additional $77,000 self-funded, $60,000 cash on hand

• TN-Gov: John Rose (R): $1.1 million raised (since March), additional $5 million self-funded

• CA-41: Ken Calvert (R-inc): $1.3 million raised, $2.5 million cash on hand

• FL-21: Pia Dandiya (D): $400,000 raised (in one month)

• IL-09: Kat Abughazaleh (D): $520,000 raised, $650,000 cash on hand

• ME-02: Paul LePage (R): $500,000 raised (in two months)

• MI-07: Tom Barrett (R-inc): $1 million raised

• NC-01: Sandy Roberson (R): $300,000 raised (in 10 weeks), additional $2 million self-funded

• NJ-07: Rebecca Bennett (D): $480,000 raised, $700,000 cash on hand

• PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R-inc): $1.3 million raised, $6.5 million cash on hand

• WI-01: Bryan Steil (R-inc): $1.3 million raised, $3.6 million cash on hand

Senate

MI-Sen, MI-Gov

Conservative commentator Tudor Dixon said Wednesday that she wouldn't run for either Senate or governor next year, a decision that answers one of the biggest questions hanging over both of Michigan's open-seat races. Dixon, a MAGA darling, badly lost to Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2022 but retained sufficient popularity to be a threat in any primary.

Republicans still have a multi-way battle in the governor's race, with Rep. John James leading in the polls, while former Rep. Mike Rogers is so far the only major GOP candidate running for Senate.

NC-Sen

Jim Cain, a former president of the NHL's Carolina Hurricanes, tells Axios he's interested in running for North Carolina's open Senate seat—as long as both Lara Trump and RNC chair Michael Whatley take a pass.

As for Whatley, who previously chaired the state GOP, he tells the Washington Examiner that Trump, who is Donald Trump's daughter-in-law, "is certainly going to have the entire Republican universe, myself included, that are going to coalesce behind her" if she runs." But in the event she demurs, Whatley isn't ruling out a bid himself, saying he would "work with the president" to "figure out who the best candidate is to be able to win there."

Governors

CT-Gov

Democratic state Rep. Josh Elliott, who teased a possible primary challenge to Gov. Ned Lamont last month, has filed paperwork for a gubernatorial bid and tells CT Mirror he'll make an announcement on Monday.

Elliot's intentions, however, are not entirely clear. The CT Mirror's Mark Pazniokas writes that it remains to be seen if the lawmaker is "committed to an all-or-nothing run for governor or a campaign to test Democrats' appetite for an alternative to Lamont."

Lamont has yet to say whether he'll seek a third term, but he sounded inclined to run again on Wednesday.

"We have a lot of unfinished business," Lamont told Connecticut Public Radio. "I'll make some sort of a formal announcement later this summer or early in the fall."

He may not have a smooth path, however. Lamont infuriated fellow Democrats after the conclusion of the legislative session in June when he unexpectedly vetoed a bill to create more affordable housing that his own team had negotiated with lawmakers.

Following that veto, Elliott told CT Insider, "Let me assure you, if he decides to run again, he will not run uncontested."

Morning Digest: Surprise veto sparks talk of primary challenge to Connecticut's governor

GA-Gov

Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath has refunded $80,000 to donors that she raised earlier this year when she was exploring a bid for governor, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes.

At the end of March, McBath announced she was suspending her exploratory effort due to health challenges faced by her husband. At the time, she did not foreclose the possibility of returning to the race, but her decision to return contributions to her campaign suggests such a move would be unlikely.

KS-Gov

Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt entered the race for Kansas' open governorship on Wednesday, joining an increasingly busy GOP primary that already features some major names.

Schmidt served in the state Senate for more than a decade before winning the first of her two terms as insurance commissioner in 2018. She'll compete for the Republican nod with former Gov. Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Scott Schwab, among others. (Schmidt does not appear to be related to Rep. Derek Schmidt, who was the GOP's unsuccessful gubernatorial nominee in 2022.)

State Sen. Cindy Holscher is currently the only Democrat running to succeed term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly, though Senate Minority Leader Dinah Sykes also recently expressed interest.

NJ-Gov

A group backed by the Democratic Governors Association called Greater Garden State says it has reserved $20 million in ad time across TV, digital, and streaming platforms to help Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeat Republican Jack Ciattarelli in this fall's race for New Jersey's open governorship.

The DGA's counterparts at the Republican Governors Association have yet to make a similar investment. Four years ago, the RGA spent less than $4 million on Ciattarelli's campaign to oust Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who survived by an unexpectedly close 51-48 margin.

OK-Gov

A super PAC supporting former state House Speaker Charles McCall has launched what Fox News says is a $1.6 million ad buy boosting his campaign, almost a full year ahead of the Republican primary for governor next June.

The Oklahoma Conservative Coalition, which is set to remain on the air for the next eight weeks, is taking action after several polls showed McCall with single-digit support. Those surveys found Attorney General Gentner Drummond, who has clashed with termed-out incumbent Kevin Stitt, well ahead in the GOP primary. McCall, by contrast, has touted himself as an ally of Stitt.

Morning Digest, sponsored by 314 Action: Oklahoma Republican who fought state funding for religious school launches bid for governor

PA-Gov

State Sen. Doug Mastriano, the GOP's disastrous nominee for governor in 2022, is still keeping everyone guessing about whether he might try again.

A day after Rep. Dan Meuser announced he would not seek the Republican nod to take on Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, Mastriano told News Talk 103.7 FM on Wednesday that "I still have my team in place if we decide to do it," adding, "So, to be determined."

WI-Gov

Businessman Bill Berrien announced Wednesday that he would seek the Republican nomination for governor of Wisconsin, an office held by Democrat Tony Evers. Evers recently said he's still a "couple weeks" away from deciding if he'll run again, but the new candidate decided not to wait to attack the two-term incumbent.

Berrien used his launch video to accuse Evers of wanting to raise taxes and "trying to stop President Trump from deporting criminal illegal aliens." Berrien, a Navy SEAL veteran who is waging his first run for office, also compared himself to Trump and pledged to "shake up Madison like he's shaking up D.C."

Berrien entered the race to lead this perennial swing state two months after Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann became the first prominent Republican to announce a campaign. Several other Republicans are also publicly or privately considering whether to run.

House

CA-21

Republican Lorenzo Rios, a veteran of both the Army and the Marine Corps, launched a challenge to longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Costa on Tuesday.

Costa, 73, first won a seat in the state Assembly in 1978, eventually making it to Congress with a victory in 2004. His Fresno-based 21st District has always leaned to the left, but he's often underperformed and experienced several close scares over the years despite drawing a series of unheralded GOP challengers.

Last year offered another such example: Costa held off Republican Michael Maher by just a 52.6 to 47.4 margin while watching his heavily Latino district veer sharply to the right. According to calculations from The Downballot, the 21st supported Kamala Harris 51-47 after backing Joe Biden 59-39 four years earlier—one of the starkest collapses anywhere in the nation.

Costa, who co-chairs the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, has also never been a particularly strong fundraiser. Rios, however, has never run for office before and will be doing so in an election cycle where Republicans are likely to face serious headwinds.

IL-02

Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller announced Wednesday that she was joining the busy Democratic primary for Illinois' 2nd District, a safely blue seat that Rep. Robin Kelly is giving up to run for the Senate.

The field could grow again soon, as former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. confirmed to Sarah Schulte of ABC 7 that he's considering running to regain the seat he resigned from in disgrace in 2012.

Jackson, who spent a year-and-a-half in prison after admitting to spending $750,000 in campaign contributions on personal purchases, said he was speaking to residents as he considers whether to run. Schulte writes he's "likely to make a decision on his future political plans soon."

Anyone else who wants to compete in the March 17 primary also needs to get organized before long. Candidates can begin collecting signatures to get on the ballot on Aug. 5, and they'll want to devote as much time as possible to the task, since Illinois politicians frequently challenge their opponents' petitions to try to get them disqualified.

The deadline to turn in signatures is Nov. 3, which is one of the earliest filing deadlines in the country.

IL-09

Former FBI agent Phil Andrew on Tuesday entered the packed Democratic primary for Illinois' 9th District, a safely blue seat where Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky is not seeking reelection.

Andrew used his launch video to tell the audience how he survived a 1988 mass shooting in which the perpetrator took both him and his parents hostage. Andrew, who almost died after he was shot, describes how the episode led him to join the FBI and become a gun safety advocate.

KY-06

State Rep. Deanna Gordon said Wednesday she was entering the race to succeed Rep. Andy Barr, a fellow Kentucky Republican who is running for the Senate. Gordon joins fellow state Rep. Ryan Dotson, who had had the GOP primary to himself until now.

Austin Horn writes in the Lexington Herald-Leader that Gordon first ran for the legislature in 2018 when she waged a successful primary challenge to state Rep. C. Wesley Morgan, who had infuriated his party's leadership during his single term in office.

The defeated Morgan implored his supporters to vote for a Democrat over the GOP nominee, and his appeal almost worked. Gordon, though, ended up prevailing by 24 votes and has since had no trouble keeping her seat.

NH-01

Nonprofit director Sarah Chadzynski has joined the busy Democratic primary for New Hampshire's competitive 1st District.

Last year, Chadzynski campaigned for a three-member seat in the New Hampshire House of Representatives, but she and her two ticketmates fell just short of beating any of the three Republican incumbents.

On the Republican side, local GOP official Melissa Bailey also announced a bid to flip the 1st District, which Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is giving up to run for the Senate. Bailey is competing against businessman Chris Bright, who finished fourth in last year's primary.

NY-11

New York City Councilman Justin Brannan informs CNN that he's interested in opposing Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis in New York's 11th District, a conservative constituency that includes all of Staten Island and a slice of Brooklyn.

Donald Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot, carried the 11th 61-37 last year, a considerable improvement from his 53-46 showing in 2020. But Brannan, who placed second in last month's Democratic primary for city comptroller, says the seat is still winnable for Democrats.

"Every year, whether it's the midterms or the presidential election when there's people from Manhattan chartering buses to Ohio and Pennsylvania," he told CNN, "I'm like, 'Guys, just take the ferry to Staten Island—there's a swing district here.'"

New York

Zohran Mamdani's upset win in last month's Democratic primary for mayor of New York City has intensified talk that local House members could face intraparty challenges from the left next year, CNN's Edward-Isaac Dovere reports. But as Dovere explains, groups like the Democratic Socialists of America have yet to land any big names for what would be a difficult undertaking.

One notable example is state Sen. Jabari Brisport, who says that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is "rapidly growing out of touch with an insurgent and growing progressive base within his own district that he should pay more attention to." Brisport, however, also told Dovere that he won't challenge his fellow Brooklynite in the 8th District.

Former Rep. Jamaal Bowman, who lost renomination last year to George Latimer in the 16th District, also dismissed talk that he could oppose Rep. Richie Torres in the neighboring 15th. While Bowman said he's often been asked to take on Torres, he told Dovere, "I personally don't think that that is a priority per se."

There's also been speculation that City Comptroller Brad Lander, who cross-endorsed Mamdani in the primary for mayor, could oppose Rep. Dan Goldman. But while Lander didn't rule out the idea last month, Dovere's sources relay that he appears "more focused on helping Mamdani and potentially serving in a top position in City Hall."

New York's congressional primaries are still almost a year away, though, so there's time for strong candidates to run—or for unheralded candidates to emerge as strong candidates. No one has forgotten how Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez emerged seemingly out of nowhere in 2018 to decisively defeat Rep. Joe Crowley, an upset that underdog candidates across the nation are always hoping to replicate.

PA-03

Physician Dave Oxman announced Thursday that he was entering the Democratic primary for Pennsylvania's safely blue 3rd District, where Rep. Dwight Evans is not seeking reelection. Oxman joins state Sen. Sharif Street and state Rep. Chris Rabb in the contest for this Philadelphia constituency.

Oxman filed to run in April when Evans still sounded likely to run for reelection, and his team says he's already brought in $300,000. The new candidate kicked off his effort with a video decrying how America's health care system "is broken as hell," saying that he wants to "lead a movement to change it."

Street, meanwhile, publicized endorsements this week from 10 local unions in what the Philadelphia Inquirer's Julia Terruso calls "an exceptionally early showing of labor support." Eight of those groups are part of the influential Philadelphia Building and Construction Trades Council, though the umbrella organization says it's "far too early" for it to take sides.

PA-07

EMILYs List has endorsed Carol Obando-Derstine in next year's Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania's swingy 7th District. Obando-Derstine, a former supervisor at an electric utility company, faces Northampton County Executive ​​Lamont McClure and former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell for the right to go up against the freshman incumbent.

TX Redistricting

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Wednesday added congressional redistricting to the agenda of a special session of the legislature he previously called, giving fellow Republicans the chance to further gerrymander the state's map.

During that session, which is scheduled to begin on July 21, lawmakers can only consider topics specified by the governor. The New York Times reported last month that Donald Trump had exhorted Texas Republicans to redraw their map with the aim of shoring up the GOP's slim House majority.

That same story also relayed fears from unnamed Republicans that such a move could "backfire" by making GOP incumbents more vulnerable in the general election. More parochially, incumbents generally dislike taking on new turf because it can sever existing relationships, especially with major donors in their districts. It can also expose them to greater risk in primaries, since they'll suddenly have to court new voters who've never voted for them before.

It remains to be seen just how aggressively Republican lawmakers plan to take up Abbott's call, and how deferential they are toward members of Congress in their own party. Whatever unfolds, though, the special session can run for no more than 30 days.

WI Redistricting

A group of business leaders in Wisconsin has filed a new lawsuit asking that the state's congressional map be struck down as an illegal gerrymander in violation of the state constitution.

The case was filed with the Dane County Circuit Court, a trial court that operates as a "court of first instance," meaning it can develop a factual record through written evidence, witness testimony, and expert reports.

Late last month, the Wisconsin Supreme Court declined to hear a similar challenge on procedural grounds, denying a request that it exercise "original jurisdiction"—something that is usually the province of trial courts like the one in Dane County.

In their complaint, plaintiffs allege that Wisconsin's map is an "anti-competitive gerrymander," which they explain "occurs when elected officials work in concert to draw district lines to suppress electoral competition, thereby benefiting incumbent politicians to the detriment of voters."

They distinguish such an effort from traditional partisan gerrymandering because the latter aims to maximize the political gains for one party while the former benefits incumbents in both parties. (For that reason, they are often referred to as "incumbent-protection gerrymanders.")

Even if the plaintiffs receive a favorable ruling, it's not clear whether a new map could be put into place in time for next year's midterms, especially since any decision would be subject to appeal.

Mayors & County Leaders

Harris County, TX Judge

Houston City Council member Letitia Plummer announced Tuesday that she was joining next year's Democratic primary for Harris County judge, a move she says she made because she doesn't think incumbent Lina Hidalgo will run again.

Hidalgo, though, responded by saying she still hadn't made any such decision, and that she was "surprised" and "disappointed" by Plummer, a fellow Democrat.

Hidalgo also told the Houston Chronicle that she'd make up her mind over the next few weeks about whether to seek a third term as leader of America's third-largest county. (County judges in Texas are the equivalent of county executives elsewhere; they are not judicial positions.)

Former Houston Mayor Annise Parker previously entered the Democratic primary for county judge last month, and she didn't show any inclination to defer to Hidalgo.

Former Rep. Erica Lee Carter, by contrast, said Monday she would run as long as Hidalgo doesn't. Carter won last November's special election to succeed her late mother, longtime Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, in the final two months of the 118th Congress, but she did not seek a full term.

Jackson County, MO Executive

Voters will decide whether to recall Jackson County Executive Frank White, a Democrat who leads the second-largest county in Missouri, though it's not clear exactly when the vote will take place.

Recall organizers in the Kansas City area say they want White, who was an All-Star second baseman for the Royals before entering politics, removed from office because of rising property taxes. The executive, though, argues that "dark money groups" are trying to punish him for successfully opposing a ballot measure last year that would have extended a sales tax to fund stadiums for the Royals and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Last month, election officials verified that the campaign to oust White had turned in the requisite number of signatures. The county legislature set the election for Aug. 26, but administrators have threatened to sue because they say it would be "almost impossible" to hold a vote so quickly.

Voters will eventually be presented with a "yes" or "no" question asking whether they want to remove White, whose office is descended from the one that Harry Truman held early in his political career. (The future president served as presiding judge, which was an executive rather than a judicial post; the office was renamed in the early 1970s as part of a wide-ranging transformation of local government.)

If the "yes" side prevails, it would be up to the county legislature to choose a new executive, who would have to be a Democrat. The post will again be on the ballot next year for a full four-year term whether or not White is recalled.

New York, NY Mayor

A new poll shows Democrat Zohran Mamdani leading former Gov. Andrew Cuomo 35-25 in a prospective five-way general election.

Republican Curtis Sliwa is in third with 14%, while Mayor Eric Adams, a former Democrat who is running as an independent, takes 11%, with just 1% going to unaffiliated candidate Jim Walden.

The survey was conducted by Slingshot Strategies, a Democratic firm that worked for Scott Stringer in the primary. Politico says, however, that there was no client for this poll.

A recent survey for Gotham Polling & Analytics for allies of Adams had Mamdani outpacing Cuomo by a similar 41-26 spread, though it had the mayor in third place with 16% instead of in fourth.

Mamdani's critics are calling for his opponents to consolidate behind one candidate to avoid fracturing the vote—there's no ranked choice voting for the general election—but no one is getting out of the way yet.

Cuomo, who lost last month's primary to Mamdani, has a spot on the November ballot under his self-created "Fight and Deliver" ballot line, but he has yet to say if he'll actively campaign.

Nonetheless, he and Adams are each insisting that the other should drop out. Sliwa, for his part, said shortly after the primary, "I'm not getting out of this race unless they figure out a way to put me in a pine box and bury me six feet under." Regardless of who does or doesn't bail, it's too late for any candidates to remove their names from the November ballot.