Morning Digest: Nebraska independent who spooked GOP launches another Senate bid
Dan Osborn says it's "the CEO" vs. "the guy from the shop floor"
Leading Off
NE-Sen
Former labor leader Dan Osborn, an independent who lost a surprisingly competitive Senate race last year in Nebraska, announced on Tuesday that he would wage a second campaign for Congress—this time challenging Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts.
In launching his new bid, Osborn argued he has a better shot against Ricketts than he did last time against Sen. Deb Fischer, who beat him by 6 points.
"We were learning how to build the plane as we were learning how to fly it last time," he told the Nebraska Examiner's Juan Salinas.
Osborn, a Navy veteran, also faulted Ricketts for supporting the GOP's new budget bill, saying the already-wealthy senator would make more money "off the backs of people" who depend on the programs he voted to cut.
"If I had been elected in 2024, that 'big beautiful bill' would not have gotten passed," said Osborn, who told the New York Times in a separate interview that he believes his biography will contrast well against the incumbent's.
"It's the CEO from Omaha versus the guy from the shop floor from Omaha," Osborn said, "so that's going [to] be the fundamental difference."
Republicans are again insisting that Osborn would empower Senate Democrats, but the new candidate said he would not caucus with either party if elected. Still, Nebraska Democrats believe he'd still be a big upgrade from Ricketts, a GOP megadonor who served eight years as governor before he was appointed to fill a vacant Senate seat in 2023.
State party chair Jane Kleeb says that her organization, which is wary about dividing the anti-Ricketts vote, won't recruit a candidate of its own. She explained to Epstein, "Breaking up the one-party stranglehold on our state is going to take an unlikely alliance of Democrats, Republicans, and independents coming together to fix a very broken Washington, D.C."
Kleeb and other Democrats, however, cannot prevent someone from filing to run in the primary. It's also possible that a third-party candidate or another independent could run and prevent Osborn from being Ricketts' only opponent in next year's general election.
Osborn was Fischer's sole challenger in 2024, and he used the opportunity to appeal to a broad spectrum of voters who disliked the incumbent. Osborn, who calls himself a lifelong independent, hoped that his lack of a party label would give him an opening with conservative voters who would never cast a ballot for a Democrat.
He wasn't the first unaffiliated Senate candidate to adopt such a strategy in a red state. Kansas' Greg Orman (in 2014) and Utah's Evan McMullin (in 2022) waged strong campaigns against Republican incumbents in races where Democrats didn't field anyone. But while Orman and McMullin performed far better than Democratic candidates usually run in their states, they both still lost by about 10 points.
Osborn, who raised $15 million, hoped things would be different for him, and national Republicans recognized late in the campaign that they needed to take him seriously. Punchbowl News reported less than a month before Election Day that Republicans were in a "panic" about Fischer's race and were angry they needed to spend money to defend what was supposed to be a safe seat.
Fischer did indeed run well behind both Donald Trump and Ricketts, who was competing in a special election for the final two years of his term, but she held onto enough Republican voters to prevail. Fischer beat Osborn 53-47 as Trump carried Nebraska 59-39. Ricketts, for his part, defeated an unheralded Democrat 63-37.
Osborn, though, is betting that Ricketts will be considerably weaker heading into the 2026 campaign than he was in 2024, especially following his vote for the budget bill.
"This race represents the foundational battle taking place in America right now: The Billionaire Class vs. The Working Class," Osborn said as he kicked off his new effort. "Who's with me?"
2Q Fundraising
FL-Sen: Josh Weil (D): $82,000 raised (in 13 days), $222,000 cash on hand
MI-Sen: Abdul El-Sayed (D): $1.8 million raised, $1.1 million cash on hand
MN-Sen: Angie Craig (D): $1.8 million raised, additional $590,000 transferred from House campaign
IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D): $800,000 raised (in two weeks)
NJ-09: Nellie Pou (D-inc): $500,000 raised, $780,000 cash on hand
NY-19: Josh Riley (D-inc): $725,000 raised, $1 million cash on hand
WI-03: Rebecca Cooke (D): $937,000 raised
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Senate
KY-Sen
Wealthy businessman Nate Morris, who just joined the GOP primary for Kentucky's open Senate seat, is already spending a reported seven figures to air ads bashing both of his rivals—and the man he's hoping to succeed.
"Mitch McConnell? He's trashed Trump," Morris narrates in his inaugural spot. "McConnell's boys Andy Barr and Daniel Cameron will do the same if they replace him."
Explaining that he "built one of the largest trash companies in America" as he rides the step at the rear of a garbage truck, Morris says, "I know a little bit about garbage." The candidate then tosses framed photos of McConnell—one with Cameron and another with Barr—into the back of the truck while promising to be a "pro-Trump businessman."
MN-Sen, MN-Gov
Republican state Sen. Julia Coleman said Tuesday that she wouldn't run for Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, though she hinted she was interested in campaigning against Democratic Gov. Tim Walz.
Coleman, the daughter-in-law of former Sen. Norm Coleman, tweeted that her "focus remains on fighting for our future from home." She added that her oldest child "is lobbying to move closer to his grandparents near Summit Ave," a St. Paul neighborhood that Axios' Torey Van Oot notes happens to be the location of the governor's mansion. (Coleman unsubtly added a winking emoji.)
Coleman's decision means that Minnesota Republicans still lack a viable candidate for the Senate seat that retiring Democratic incumbent Tina Smith is leaving behind. As for the governor's race, businessman Kendall Qualls is currently the only notable Republican challenging Walz, though former state Sen. Scott Jensen, who lost in 2022, is considering another try.
Walz, for his part, has yet to announce if he'll seek a third term, though he still sounds likely to run again.
"It won't be me against a theoretical Republican. It will be one of theirs who will bend the knee to Donald Trump, and it will be this bill tanking the economy and Donald Trump having done more stuff," the governor told the Minnesota Star Tribune on Monday. "If we run again, we will win."
The paper writes that Walz will decide "soon," though the governor said he was still thinking things over following the murder of state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, last month.
NC-Sen
Attorney General Jeff Jackson told WRAL on Tuesday that he would not seek the Democratic nomination for North Carolina's open Senate seat. Jackson, who said he wants former Gov. Roy Cooper to run, added that he wouldn't jump in even if Cooper stayed out of the race.
Governors
GA-Gov
Republican Lt. Gov. Burt Jones finally announced Tuesday that he was entering the race for Georgia's open governorship, a long-awaited move that surprised absolutely no one.
Allies of Attorney General Chris Carr, who is the lieutenant governor's only serious intraparty opponent, didn't even wait for Jones to confirm he was in before they started running ads against him last month. Carr responded to his wealthy rival's official launch by telling the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein that the primary won't be decided by "who can write the biggest check."
But Jones, who was one of the 16 Republicans who claimed to be one of Georgia's electors in 2020 and signed documents falsely saying that Donald Trump had carried the state, is indeed betting that his money—and his MAGA ties—will make the difference.
Jones announced his campaign the same day that the public learned he had already stockpiled a hefty $14 million in his leadership committee, an entity that's allowed to raise unlimited sums of money. $10 million of that total came from a personal loan Jones made to the committee.
Carr, who has said that he's not capable of self-funding, is limited to accepting $8,400 from individual donors for the primary. The imbalance results from a 2021 state law signed by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp that authorizes only the sitting governor, lieutenant governor, and leaders of both parties to create these special committees.
Everyone else is out of luck, though nominees for governor and lieutenant governor who don't currently hold those offices can establish their own leadership committees after they win their party's nomination.
Carr argues that a 2022 federal court ruling prohibiting Kemp's committee from spending money until he won that year's primary applies to Jones. The lieutenant governor, unsurprisingly, believes otherwise, so it may again fall on the courts to decide who is right.
Jones, however, also has another key advantage over Carr that money can't buy: The lieutenant governor has spent the last decade as an ardent Trump backer.
"I've been the Trump guy since 2015, not '16," Jones declared at last month's state GOP convention. "I know who ran and hid during 2020 and everything else."
Carr, by contrast, infuriated Trump following the 2020 election by refusing to go along with his plan to steal Georgia's electoral votes. The attorney general, along with Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, later turned aside Trump-backed primary foes in 2022, though Jones is unlikely to let the party's master forget about Carr's apostasy.
Jones, however, could yet face a different opponent he can't out-MAGA. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene remains interested in running for governor, though she has yet to commit to anything. Raffensperger, for his part, has also expressed interest in this office.
Democrats are hoping all this turmoil will give them an opening to win the governor's office for the first time since 1998. State Sen. Jason Esteves, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, and state Rep. Derrick Jackson are already running, and more candidates could end up joining.
Georgia, like many other Southern states, requires candidates to win a majority of the vote to avoid a primary runoff—a rule that, unusually, also applies to the general election.
IA-Gov, IA-03
Republican Rep. Zach Nunn is reevaluating his decision not to run for Iowa's open governorship next year, reports the Des Moines Register, following state Attorney General Brenna Bird's announcement last week that she would not join the GOP primary.
"The reality is, Brenna choosing not to run changes the dynamics of the race tremendously," according to an unnamed "senior source within Nunn's operation" who spoke with the paper. "So in our view, the primary is reset."
That primary, though, would still be a bruising affair, with fellow Rep. Randy Feenstra all but certain to jump in and several other candidates either already running or still weighing the race.
Nunn would also leave behind a swingy House seat that Republicans would have to work even harder to defend. The Des Moines-area 3rd District voted for Donald Trump by a relatively close 52-47 margin last year, according to calculations from The Downballot, and two Democrats launched campaigns against Nunn in May: state Rep. Jennifer Konfrst and state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott.
PA-Gov
Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser, who was Donald Trump's pick to run for governor next year, announced on Tuesday that he would not enter the race.
The development, which was first reported by ABC, also prompted a response from state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who is likewise considering a bid against Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro. In a statement, Garrity praised Meuser and said that she would "have an announcement about the future of my career in service very soon."
House
IA-01
Attorney Taylor Wettach announced Tuesday that he was entering the Democratic primary to face Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa's 1st District.
Wettach, who is running for office for the first time, told the Gazette he'd decided to run after his now-former employer, Simpson Thacher & Bartlett, struck a supposed deal to avoid the wrath of the Trump administration by agreeing to supply it with $125 million in free work.
"Unfortunately, my law firm was one of the firms that was targeted," Wettach told the paper. "I had hoped that we would stand up for what I believe we need to do, which is to push back against government overreach when they come after our judicial system, our legal system. And sadly, they caved."
Wettach joins a primary that already includes former state Rep. Christina Bohannan, who was the Democratic nominee in 2022 and 2024. Bohannan last year held Miller-Meeks to an extremely close 799-vote victory as Trump was carrying this southeastern Iowa constituency by a much wider 54-45 margin, but Wettach argues his party would benefit from having a new candidate.
IA-04
State Rep. Matt Windschitl announced Monday that he would run to replace Rep. Randy Feenstra, a fellow Iowa Republican who is all but certain to run for governor, in the dark red 4th District. Windschitl joins Chris McGowan, who is the head of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce, in next year's primary.
Windschitl, a Marine veteran who was elected to the legislature in 2006 at the age of 22, currently serves as House majority leader. The candidate told the Des Moines Register he'd relinquish his leadership post to run for Congress. He also addressed a potentially big problem in his interview with reporter Stephen Gruber-Miller.
The state representative acknowledged he'd supported Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Donald Trump in last year's presidential primary, an issue he admitted "may be" a concern for some Republicans at home. Windschitl, though, insisted the matter was "behind us," describing himself as a loyal Trump ally.
IL-09
The jam-packed Democratic primary for Illinois' open 9th Congressional District just got even busier on Tuesday with state Sen. Mike Simmons' entry into the race.
Simmons became Illinois' first openly gay state senator after he was appointed to fill a vacancy in 2021, as well as the legislature's first Ethiopian American member. Simmons would be the first member of Congress from the Prairie State who is both Black and gay.
The field already features a variety of notable names, including two other state lawmakers, Sen. Laura Fine and Rep. Hoan Huynh, as well as Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, community organizer Miracle Jenkins, political commentator Kat Abughazaleh, attorney Howard Rosenblum, and school board member Bushra Amiwala.
KY-06
Former state Sen. Damon Thayer, who'd been considering a bid for Kentucky's open 6th District, said on Tuesday that he would not enter the Republican primary. Instead, Thayer pre-endorsed another ex-state senator, Ralph Alvarado, who a day earlier promised he'd make an announcement "soon."
PA-03
State Rep. Chris Rabb said Tuesday he would run to succeed retiring Rep. Dwight Evans, a fellow Philadelphia Democrat, in Pennsylvania's 3rd District. Rabb joins state Sen. Sharif Street, who also serves as state party chair, in the primary for one of the most Democratic House seats in the nation.
The Philadelphia Inquirer's Julia Terruso writes that Rabb, whom she calls "one of the most progressive members" of the state House, has a history of beating opponents backed by the local party establishment.
Rabb pulled off a surprise primary win in 2016 against state Rep. Tonyelle Cook-Artis, a showing Philadelphia Magazine characterized as a victory over "one of Philly's most powerful political machines."
Six years later, Rabb decisively defeated fellow state Rep. Isabella Fitzgerald, who enjoyed the support of the local Democratic Party, after the 2022 round of redistricting resulted in a confrontation between the two incumbents.
TN-06
State Rep. Johnny Garrett on Tuesday became the first notable Republican to announce a campaign to replace Rep. John Rose, who is giving up the dark red 6th to run for governor of Tennessee.
But Garrett will almost certainly have an opponent before the week is over. Former Rep. Van Hilleary, who serves as Rose's chief of staff, has scheduled what he calls a "big, beautiful announcement" for Friday.
Garrett, who serves as majority whip in the GOP-dominated state House, earned a condemnation from the Tennessee Black Caucus in April when he gave actual, literal whips as gifts to his deputies. Jesse Chism, a Democrat who chairs the Black Caucus, said the items reflected a "lack of awareness" in the chamber.
Garrett, who does not appear to have apologized, launched his new effort by embracing transphobia. He told the far-right Daily Wire that his first bill in Congress would be a "nationwide ban" on gender-affirming care for children.
TN-07
Republican state Rep. Lee Reeves has announced that he's entering the special election for Tennessee's vacant 7th District, which has yet to be scheduled. Reeves was elected to the legislature last year after winning his primary by just 97 votes.
VA-01
Attorney Andrew Lucchetti on Tuesday joined the Democratic primary to face Republican Rep. Rob Wittman in Virginia's 1st District, but an even bigger name is now looking at taking on the veteran incumbent.
A spokesperson for Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor, who narrowly lost last month's primary for attorney general, tells the Daily Press's Ben Swenson that she's interested in opposing Wittman.
Former Del. Jay Jones outpaced Taylor 51-49 statewide in that race, but she did considerably better in this constituency. J. Miles Coleman at Sabato's Crystal Ball says that Taylor prevailed 54-46 in the 1st, which was her best showing in any of Virginia's 11 congressional districts. Her base in Henrico County, which contains many of Richmond's suburbs, is home to about a quarter of Wittman's constituents.
Air Force veteran Jim Hendrickson, who chairs the Democratic Party in Northumberland County, also informs Swenson that he's considering running. Hendrickson, though, added that he was currently focusing on the state's November elections.
In addition, the Virginia Scope's Brandon Jarvis reported last month that former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, who narrowly lost the primary for lieutenant governor, is likewise interested. Stoney, however, has yet to speak publicly.
For now, the primary is a three-way race between Lucchetti, Chesterfield County Clerk of Court Amanda Pohl, and activist Lisa Vedernikova Khanna.
Lucchetti, who does not appear to have run for office before, used his announcement video to talk about his past struggles with alcohol and drugs. He tells the audience, "Seventeen years ago, my marriage had ended, my construction work had dried up, and I was drinking too much."
"I was arrested on a drug possession charge and found myself standing in front of a judge with a choice: get sober or go to jail," he continues. "That was the worst day of my life, but it also saved me."
Wittman's team responded to his declared and potential challengers with a bullish statement proclaiming, "Democrats can waste their money however they want but Virginians have elected Congressman Wittman by double-digits time and again for a reason." But the incumbent, Swenson notes, has yet to announce whether he'll stick around to defend the seat he first won in a 2007 special election.
While Wittman has never had trouble holding the 1st, national Democrats have yet to wage a serious effort to unseat him—and there's reason to think things could be different next year. According to calculations from The Downballot, the 1st District voted for Donald Trump 52-47 in November after supporting him 52-46 four years earlier, making it one of just 19 districts in the nation that moved to the left in 2024.
Judges
WI Supreme Court
Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has endorsed Judge Chris Taylor as she seeks to unseat conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley in next year's race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
Taylor previously earned the backing of the four liberal members she's hoping to join on the court and looks to be the consensus progressive choice in April's officially nonpartisan race. Should Taylor win, liberals would expand their majority to 5-2.
In a demonstration of why the citizens of the District of Columbia deserve voting representation in Congress, Trump yesterday proclaimed his inclination to take over the district.
DEVASTATING DYSFUNCTION
Today’s "Letter From an American" by Heather Cox Richardson is a must read – an absolutely devastating description of the Trump Regime’s dysfunction and deeply damaging policies. A few choice excerpts.
"At a press opportunity at a cabinet meeting today, Trump said it wasn’t the right time to talk about his plans to phase out FEMA."
"Meanwhile, at the Pentagon, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth did not inform the White House before he stopped the shipment of weapons to Ukraine last week. … When a reporter asked the president today who had authorized the pause, Trump answered: “I don’t know, why don’t you tell me?”"
"At today’s press opportunity, Trump was erratic, at one point veering off into a discussion of whether he should put gold leaf on the moldings in the room’s corners."
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/july-8-2025