Morning Digest: Two major GOP retirements boost Democrats' midterm hopes
A pair of extremely vulnerable Republicans—one in each chamber—are set to call it quits. Are more departures on the way?
Leading Off
NC-Sen, NE-02
Two of the most vulnerable Republicans in Congress are set to depart next year, following a pair of stunning developments that unfolded over the weekend.
On Sunday, following his vote against advancing the GOP's budget bill the night before, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis announced that he would not seek reelection in 2026.
Two days earlier, multiple media outlets reported that Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon would not run again and would make an announcement about his plans on Monday. (The news was first shared in a tweet by Punchbowl and a minute later in a full article from NOTUS.)
Tillis was a top target of both Democrats and Donald Trump, who expressed his support for a primary challenge to the senator after he came out against the budget bill on Saturday. (The measure moved forward on a 51-49 vote.)
But while his retirement pleased Trump—the GOP's master characteristically took to social media to gloat—it only increases Democratic chances of flipping his seat. Among the states Senate Republicans will have to defend in the midterms, North Carolina, which voted for by a slim Trump 51-48 margin, is the second bluest, trailing only Maine.
Bacon's reported exit comes as less of a surprise, since the congressman told NOTUS in April he was thinking about making this term his last. His departure, though, will have a similar impact by boosting Democratic hopes of picking up Nebraska's 2nd District, which backed Kamala Harris 52-47 last year. According to calculations from The Downballot, that makes it the bluest district held by a House Republican anywhere in the country.
Two prominent local Democrats had already announced bids against Bacon, state Sen. John Cavanaugh and political strategist Denise Powell. Another, Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades, expressed interest just before news of Bacon's retirement broke.
The field to take on Tillis had been slower to develop, in part because national Democrats have focused their recruitment efforts on former Gov. Roy Cooper. Cooper, who left office in January and remains popular, has yet to say whether he'll run, with a source telling Politico on Sunday that he’ll decide this summer.
In the meantime, though, former Rep. Wiley Nickel launched a campaign against Tillis while holding out the possibility that he might step aside should Cooper choose to get in. Marine Corp veteran Dan McCready, who lost a pair of close House races in 2018 and 2019, is also reportedly eyeing the race.
Both Republicans have been accustomed to extremely close contests. Tillis, who had served as speaker of the North Carolina House, made his way to Washington by defeating Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan by a 49-47 margin during the GOP wave of 2014. He then survived his only bid for reelection by that same spread in 2020 after his Democrat opponent, Cal Cunningham, acknowledged an affair just weeks before Election Day.
Bacon, meanwhile, got to Congress two years after Tillis when he unseated Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford in a 49-48 squeaker. Thanks to his district's swing nature, Bacon, who is a retired Air Force brigadier general, became a perennial Democratic focus and won each of his subsequent four races with just 51% of the vote.
Both parties will now be on high alert to see which congressional Republicans, exhausted by MAGA toxicity that in many cases they helped foment, will be next to call it quits.
Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take back the House and four in the Senate. Thanks to a difficult map, winning the upper chamber has always been a far tougher task than reclaiming the lower one, but the party's odds just improved in both—and if more Republicans bail, they could get better still.
Election Recaps
VA-11
Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw easily won the Democratic nod on Saturday in the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly. He'll be the heavy favorite over Republican Stewart Whitson, who was tapped by the GOP the same day, when the two meet on Sept. 9.
According to unofficial figures from Democrats in Virginia's 11th District, Walkinshaw captured 60% of the vote in the party-run nominating contest, while his nearest opponent, Del. Irene Shin, took 14%. State Sen. Stella Pekarsky won 13% while every other candidate was in the single digits.
Kamala Harris carried the district by a 66-31 margin last year, according to calculations from The Downballot, so Walkinshaw should have little trouble taking the seat last held by Connolly, who endorsed Walkinshaw just before his death last month.
Senate
AL-Sen, AL-SoS
Attorney Caroleene Dobson said Thursday she would run for secretary of state rather than enter the Republican primary for Alabama's open Senate seat. Dobson, who lost last year's general election for the redrawn 2nd Congressional District, is campaigning to replace Secretary of State Wes Allen, who is running for lieutenant governor.
KY-Sen
Wealthy businessman Nate Morris announced his entry into Kentucky's Senate race on Thursday in an appearance on Donald Trump Jr.'s podcast, but he immediately got hammered by two better-established Republicans already running to replace Mitch McConnell.
Morris has earned favorable attention from MAGAworld thanks to his ceaseless attacks on McConnell, but his opponents were quick to question his conservative bona fides. Rep. Andy Barr issued a statement blasting Morris as the "original woke CEO," while former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron called him "a globalist who dons a MAGA hat and pretends to be America First."
Both Barr and Cameron, though, have also been training their fire on McConnell—and one another. Barr's team argued earlier this year that Cameron had "embarrassed" the GOP by losing his bid for governor in 2013, while Cameron's side, pointing to internal polls that have shown him with a wide lead in the primary, sniped that Barr was "a little confused about electability."
TX-Sen
"Any suggestion that I'm thinking about dropping out of the race is false," Republican Sen. John Cornyn declared Thursday, five days after he said he might drop out of the race.
In an interview that ran on June 22, Texas' senior senator informed the Wall Street Journal that he was willing to end his campaign if he believed doing so would prevent Attorney General Ken Paxton, who continues to lead him in the polls, from winning the GOP nomination.
Cornyn said he'd quit the race if he believed another Republican would run in his place to defeat the scandal-ridden Paxton, though he didn't name any prospective alternatives.
Cornyn, however, insisted to the Houston Chronicle's Jeremy Wallace on Thursday, "I will be on that primary ballot no matter what."
Wallace, noting the apparent about-face, writes, "Cornyn said if anything, he is more determined than ever" to prevent his challenger from winning the nomination and giving Democrats an opening in the general election.
Cornyn's colleagues in Texas' massive congressional delegation, though, are anything but excited about him running again. Fellow Sen. Ted Cruz has remained conspicuously neutral in the primary, and Punchbowl News points out that Cornyn doesn't have the support of a single one of the state's 25 GOP House members.
Two of those representatives, Lance Gooden and Troy Nehls, have endorsed Paxton, while another pair are thinking about trying to claim Cornyn's Senate seat for themselves. Wesley Hunt has been publicly mulling the idea over for months, while Ronny Jackson is reportedly thinking about running as well.
Nehls dismissed the chatter about Jackson as "bullshit," telling Axios, "Ronny Jackson isn't running for Senate." Jackson, however, has remained silent about his interest—or lack thereof.
Other House members also see no reason to support Cornyn in his time of need.
"Why should I?" Randy Weber laconically responded when Punchbowl asked if he planned to endorse Cornyn.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Joaquin Castro has now publicly confirmed he's thinking about running, an acknowledgment that comes a few weeks after Politico first reported his interest.
"I feel like I can meet this moment in our country given my vision and experience," Castro told the San Antonio Express-News. Reporter Greg Jefferson writes that the congressman will decide "soon."
Jefferson notes that Castro received treatment for cancer in 2022 and is still undergoing treatment to remain healthy. The Democrat said of his condition, "These tumors haven't grown since my diagnosis. Now I just need them to not grow for another 40 years."
Castro added, "Right now, I'm more concerned for the country than I am about my cancer. I wouldn't be considering this if I didn't think I could handle it physically."
Retired astronaut Terry Virts is currently the only prominent Democrat in the race, while Castro is one of several others who are considering joining him. Democrats haven't won a Senate race in Texas since the late Lloyd Bentsen secured his fourth and final term in 1988, but many think that GOP infighting will give them an opening—especially if Paxton is their opponent.
Cornyn agrees that Democrats are right to be hopeful about such a development. He told Wallace, "I've simply labored too long in the vineyards in Texas, in Republican politics, to turn the seat over to Democrats in November."
Governors
ME-Gov
Both chambers of the Maine legislature voted Wednesday to recall a bill it had sent to Democratic Gov. Janet Mills aimed at expanding ranked-choice voting to state-level general elections. Mills had not said if she'd sign or veto the legislation before lawmakers withdrew it from her consideration.
The conservative Maine Wire, which first reported the news, says that the unusual move means that the bill will be "carried over into the next special or regular session." The legislature, which adjourned later on Wednesday, is set to convene next January for its next regularly scheduled session.
WI-Gov
Wealthy businessman Tim Michels, who was the Republican nominee for governor in 2022, is considering another campaign, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports. Michels, who lost to Democratic Gov. Tony Evers 51-48, has yet to say anything publicly.
Wisconsin GOP chair Brian Schimming, however, doubts he'll try again. He informed the paper he'd recently spoken to Michels, saying, "I haven't gotten any indication that he is" going to run.
Schimming, however, had more to say about a different well-heeled loser. The party's chief said that he believes Eric Hovde, who narrowly failed to unseat Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin last year, could run but added that the would-be candidate doesn't have to decide for a while.
"He's got the benefit of time because now he has 10s of millions of dollars of name ID built back up," Schimming said of Hovde. "So if he wants to jump in [late], he can." Hovde has also been quiet about his plans.
Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann is the only notable Republican currently running for governor, though others have talked about getting in.
Evers has repeatedly said he'll wait to announce whether he'll seek a third term after the state's biennial budget, which he's still negotiating with the GOP-led legislature, is complete. The governor has otherwise said little about his thinking, with the Journal-Sentinel noting that he gave "no hints" about his future at a recent convention held by Wisconsin Democrats.
House
KY-04
A super PAC run by top advisors to Donald Trump is airing a new ad slamming Republican Rep. Thomas Massie and is putting a reported $1 million behind the buy.
The spot attacks Massie for voting against Trump's efforts to "ban[] sex changes on minors" and claims the congressman "sided with Democrats and the ayatollah" after Trump "obliterated Iran's nuclear weapons program." (The voiceover pronounces it "nukular.")
Trump has long despised the iconoclastic Massie for opposing his priorities and recently re-upped his demands that a more pleasing candidate challenge the incumbent in next year's Republican primary. So far, though, no one has stepped up.
LA Redistricting
The Supreme Court unexpectedly punted on a critical redistricting case out of Louisiana on the last day of its term on Friday, saying it would hold additional arguments when it reconvenes in the fall.
The case concerns the state's congressional map, which the Republican-dominated legislature passed last year after a federal court ruled that the state was obligated to draw a second district where Black voters could elect their preferred candidate.
However, a different federal court ruled that lawmakers had excessively relied on race in crafting the new district, prompting an appeal to the Supreme Court. (The new map was still used last year pending the resolution of this dispute, leading to the election of Cleo Fields, a Black Democrat.)
The potential stakes reach much further than Louisiana, though. As Slate's Mark Joseph Stern notes, the court's far-right supermajority could use the case to gut what remains of the Voting Rights Act, which the original plaintiffs relied on in successfully arguing for the creation of a second Black-preference district.
ME-02
Former Republican Gov. Paul LePage holds a small 50-47 advantage against Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, according to a new poll from the University of New Hampshire of Maine's 2nd District. The only other poll we've seen of this likely general election matchup was an April survey for a Republican super PAC that showed LePage up 48-43.
TN-07
State Reps. Aron Maberry and Jay Reedy are both considering entering the Republican primary for the expected special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, the Tennessee Journal reports. Republican Rep. Mark Green has said he'll resign following passage of the GOP's budget bill.
VA-01
Former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, who just lost the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, is considering a bid for Virginia's 1st Congressional District, reports Virginia Scope's Brandon Jarvis.
The city of Richmond, however, is not located in the 1st, which is represented by Republican Rob Wittman, but rather, in the neighboring 4th, a seat held by Democrat Jennifer McClellan. From Stoney's perspective, that might be for the best: He fared very poorly in the primary in his hometown thanks to serious problems with the city's water supply that burst into view immediately after he left office in January.
Stoney, though, did not perform well in the 1st District, either. According to J. Miles Coleman at Sabato's Crystal Ball, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi defeated Stoney in the first by a 42-26 margin en route to a narrow victory statewide.
Two Democrats, Chesterfield County Clerk of Court Amanda Pohl and activist Lisa Vedernikova Khanna, are already challenging Wittman, whose district was one of just 19 in the nation that moved to the left in 2024. According to calculations from The Downballot, the 1st District voted for Donald Trump 52-47 in November after supporting him 52-46 four years earlier.
State Legislatures
NY State Senate
Following her inexplicable decision to endorse Andrew Cuomo's mayoral campaign, state Sen. Jessica Ramos could earn a challenge in next year's Democratic primary, City & State's Peter Sterne reports.
Ramos, who took less than 1% of the vote in Tuesday's primary according to the latest tallies, infuriated progressives when she gave her backing to Cuomo in the waning weeks of the campaign. As a consequence, says Sterne, Assemblywoman Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas "is now being actively recruited" to run against Ramos. Gonzales-Rojas declined to comment when asked about her interest.
Ramos' district, which she won by unseating a member of the pro-GOP Independent Democratic Conference in the 2018 primary, is anything but Cuomo country. According to data analyst Armin Thomas of Split Ticket, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani defeated the ex-governor by a 51-35 margin among first-choice votes in the 13th District, which is based in the Jackson Heights neighborhood in Queens.
PA-03: Dwight Evans retiring.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/30/congress/dwight-evans-retirement-00432677
Win-win. No chance of the seat flipping red, and we get someone younger or at least healthier who will be there when needed.
https://archive.ph/YUx76
Colin Allred to enter Texas race.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas#Democratic_primary