Morning Digest: Candidates to replace McConnell fight over who hates him most

And the biggest hater of them all hasn't even joined the race yet

Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr, Republican candidate for Senate (credit: Andy Barr campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

KY-Sen

Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr announced Tuesday that he would enter the Republican primary to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, the former majority leader whom few Republican candidates want to be associated with these days. Barr launched his campaign with an endorsement from a different longtime Republican: fellow Rep. Hal Rogers, who has represented eastern Kentucky since 1981.

Barr kicked off his long-awaited campaign two months after former Attorney General Daniel Cameron joined the race. Because Barr, who was first elected to represent central Kentucky in 2012, can transfer all his House campaign money into his new effort, he begins with a giant fundraising lead: Barr outraised Cameron $1.8 million to $510,000 during the first three months of the year and finished March with a $5.4 million to $460,000 cash on hand advantage.

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At least one more candidate might surface, though. Wealthy businessman Nate Morris, who counts JD Vance as a friend, is considering running for Senate, though he's also eyeing the 2027 race for governor. Semafor reported in February that Morris is capable of self-funding, though it's not clear to what extent. Other Republicans could also run, though most of the chatter has centered around this trio.

While both Barr and Cameron described the senator they're seeking to replace as their "mentor" over the last few years, the two have spent the last several months attacking McConnell for voting against several Trump administration nominees.

Barr, who once interned for the senator, sent out a fundraising text in February hyping a video in which the congressman claims he "SLAMS McConnell for selling America out to China." Cameron, who is McConnell's former general counsel, soon released his own video telling his audience, "Now what we saw from Mitch McConnell in voting against Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK was just flat out wrong."

The two also began attacking one another even before Barr launched his campaign. The congressman's team asserted that Barr "won Kentucky's toughest congressional race against Amy McGrath and the Trump resistance" in 2018 while Cameron "embarrassed" his party's leader by losing his bid for governor five years later.

Cameron's people pushed back by citing his campaign's early internal polls showing him far ahead in next year's primary. A spokesperson said, "So Andy is a little confused about electability. Probably too much wine last night from his hundredth lobbyist dinner of the month."

Cameron isn't the only Barr antagonist trying to portray him as an untrustworthy creature of the Capitol. The well-funded Club for Growth debuted a commercial shortly before McConnell announced his retirement that blasted "Garland Hale Barr IV" for having "[s]kipped past the real world into plum government jobs." The Club began airing a new ad last week that utilizes clips of Barr talking about "my mentor, Leader Mitch McConnell" and saying, "I don't represent President Trump."

The Club, which supported Cameron in 2023, has not endorsed anyone in the primary, but it has pledged to "spend whatever it takes" to defeat Barr. The congressman's side has responded by highlighting the Club's on-again, off-again feud with Trump to argue he was being targeted by "the same people who spent millions attacking and lying about President Trump."

Morris has largely escaped broadsides so far, though he's been happy to level them. The businessman said in February, "The candidates that are looking at this race, Andy Barr and Daniel Cameron, have refused to call out Mitch McConnell for the sabotage of President Trump's agenda. We cannot have a Mitch McConnell puppet filling his seat."

Morris' ceaseless pummeling of McConnell has earned him favorable attention on social media from Donald Trump Jr. and Vance, who has reportedly encouraged Morris to run.

However, not everyone is so impressed with the newcomer. Conservative outlets began running stories this winter claiming that Morris has supported diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts during his business career. His critics have also highlighted the fact that his waste and recycling company lost much of its value shortly before he stepped down in 2022.

One unnamed party strategist predicted to Semafor in February, "As soon as Nate's background is examined, folks will find a dumpster just waiting to be ignited."

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Senate

MI-Sen

Rep. Haley Stevens just joined the Democratic primary for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat on Tuesday, but her ability to transfer money from her House account gives her a head start on the money front.

The four-term congresswoman took in $1.2 million during the first quarter of the year and ended March with $1.7 million in the bank. By contrast, her two top rivals in the Democratic primary—state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed—both began fundraising from scratch when they launched their campaigns earlier this month.

Other Democrats looking to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters, such as state Rep. Joe Tate and Attorney General Dana Nessel, would also begin in the same position, since federal law prohibits transferring cash from state-level accounts to congressional campaigns.

The picture on the GOP side is similar, since former Rep. Mike Rogers, who currently has the Republican primary to himself, had $520,000 left over from his narrow loss last year against Democrat Elissa Slotkin in the races for the state's other Senate seat.

Any of Rogers' potential rivals would likewise start out behind, with one exception: Rep. Bill Huizenga, who's talked about a Senate bid, finished last month with $870,000 banked.

Stevens, who was an official with the Obama administration's Auto Task Force, won elected office for the first time in 2018 when she decisively flipped the open 11th Congressional District in the Detroit suburbs. The new congresswoman had a closer race in 2020, but the state's new independent redistricting commission soon made her district considerably bluer.

That, however, led to a different sort of battle in 2022. Stevens faced a competitive primary against fellow Rep. Andy Levin, who resisted calls to instead run in the open 10th District, a swing seat where he would have easily secured the Democratic nomination.

Stevens enjoyed considerable advantages heading into her matchup with her colleague, not least the fact that she already represented a greater proportion of the district. Levin's already difficult task got even harder thanks to heavy spending by the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC, which made reelecting Stevens a priority. Stevens prevailed by a wide 60-40 margin and had no trouble in the general election either that cycle or the next.

Governors

IA-Gov

State Sen. Mike Bousselot announced Tuesday that he was forming an exploratory committee for a potential campaign to replace retiring Gov. Kim Reynolds, a fellow Republican.

Bousselot is the first notable candidate to begin officially organizing a campaign in the weeks since the governor unexpectedly announced her retirement, though former state Rep. Brad Sherman launched a long-shot primary challenge against Reynolds in February.

Bousselot also got a boost from his old boss, former Gov. Terry Branstad, whom he previously served as chief of staff. Branstad, who resigned in 2017 to become Donald Trump's ambassador to China, said in a statement, "Mike worked hand-in-hand with President Trump's team during the President's first term, and he will be a fighter for President Trump again."

Bousselot, though, may not be all that familiar to Trump's team: Bleeding Heartland's Laura Belin reports that Bousselot's name did not appear on any lists of Trump endorsers prior to Iowa's first-in-the-nation GOP caucuses in 2024.

Republican Rep. Zach Nunn, meanwhile, confirmed this week that he's interested in running for governor. That's unlikely to be welcome news to the House GOP leaders, who would have to defend Nunn's swingy 3rd Congressional District without him.

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House

MI-11

Several Democrats in Detroit's northwestern suburbs quickly expressed interest in running to succeed Rep. Haley Stevens in the reliably blue 11th District after she announced her Senate campaign on Tuesday.

State Sen. Jeremy Moss put out a statement saying he would consult supporters "in the coming days" and would make a decision "soon." Dave Woodward, the chair of the Oakland County Board of Commissioners, likewise told Melissa Nann Burke of the Detroit News that he planned to make up his mind over the next few weeks.

Former Rep. Andy Levin, who lost an incumbent vs. incumbent primary to Stevens in 2022, also told Burke that local activists want him to run here. Levin said last month that he'd received encouragement to run for the 11th District—plus four other offices. The former congressman, however, only appears to have spoken about the 11th this week.

Burke also mentions a trio of other Democrats as potential candidates: state Sen. Rosemary Bayer, Oakland County Executive Dave Coulter, and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel. Greimel, whose city is located in Stevens' constituency, announced earlier this month that he was running for the swingy 10th District.

NE-02

Ophthalmologist Mark Edmund Johnston filed paperwork with the FEC this week for a potential campaign against Republican Rep. Don Bacon. Johnston is the first Democrat to signal any interest in taking on Bacon in Nebraska's 2nd District, an Omaha-based constituency that Kamala Harris carried 52-47 last year.

Mayors & County Leaders

Albuquerque, NM Mayor

Former U.S. Attorney Alexander Uballez announced Saturday that he would challenge Mayor Tim Keller, a fellow Democrat, in Albuquerque's nonpartisan primary in November. A runoff would take place the following month if no one wins a majority of the vote, a scenario that longtime political writer Joe Monahan believes is now "highly probable."

Uballez, who served as New Mexico's top federal prosecutor from 2022 until shortly after Donald Trump took office earlier this year, launched his campaign by calling for "new leadership who knows what it takes" to make the city safer. Uballez, who is of both Chinese and Latino ancestry—his father is Chicano rock guitarist Max Uballez—would be the city's first Asian American mayor.

Monahan writes that Keller and Uballez will likely compete for progressive voters this fall. He also identifies three main candidates who are trying to win over the city's smaller conservative bloc: former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, Albuquerque City Councilor ​​Louie Sanchez, and Mayling Armijo, a former deputy manager for neighboring Sandoval County. White is the only Republican member of this trio, while Sanchez and Armijo identify as Democrats.