Morning Digest: Why there's plenty of time for Democrats to find a challenger in Maine

Unheralded candidates have often surprised strong incumbents—just ask Elizabeth Warren

Elizabeth Warren challenged Republican Sen. Scott Brown in 2012 after better-known Massachusetts Democrats passed on the race—and won. (credit: Elizabeth Warren campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

ME-Sen

Maine Democrats have yet to land a major name to take on one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for reelection next year, but recent history shows that unheralded candidates can emerge as strong challengers—and there's still plenty of time for one to step forward.

The one notable candidate who has entered the race against Sen. Susan Collins is Jordan Wood, a former congressional staffer who began his campaign one month ago. There's plenty of discussion, though, about other Democrats who might join him.

One potential contender is businessman Dan Kleban, a co-owner of Maine Beer Company who was mentioned as a possible candidate for governor by the Bangor Daily News last month. Kleban has since informed the paper, however, that Democrats have asked if he's interested in running for the Senate instead.

Kleban told reporter Billy Kobin that he is indeed thinking about opposing Collins and said he'd "make a decision in the coming months." He also no longer appears to be considering a bid to succeed term-limited Gov. Janet Mills anymore, as Kobin describes his interest in that race in the past tense.

Penobscot Nation Chief Kirk Francis could also jump in, though his standing took a hit this month after he was arrested for drunk driving. Francis, who had not publicly spoken about running for the Senate prior to his arrest, informed Kobin that he had "[n]othing new to add right now" about his intentions but would "be in touch."

Former state Sen. Cathy Breen, who now works for the Maine Conservation Alliance, likewise remains in the mix. Breen, who didn't rule out running last month, recently informed the Portland Press Herald's Rachel Ohm that she'd decide after the legislature's current session ends. There's no set date for adjournment, though legislative leaders anticipate finishing up around June 18.

One of those leaders is House Speaker Ryan Fecteau, who is keeping his name in contention for the Senate race. Fecteau told Ohm last week that he was "not a no," but he's said little else about his thinking.

Looming over the field is Mills, who has been cagey about her interest. Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree told Punchbowl News last week, "She's been saying to people, 'Yeah, I'm thinking about it.'"

But Pingree, who said the 77-year-old governor was not "eager" to run, acknowledged that Mills' future was "a big mystery." Because Mills is so well-established, she can afford to wait until later in the election cycle before making a final decision.

The congresswoman herself, however, will not be seeking higher office. A spokesperson for Pingree, who unsuccessfully challenged Collins in 2002, informed Ohm that she plans to seek a 10th term in the House.

Pingree's daughter, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, is a likely candidate for governor—a race where Democrats already have three major candidates.

Many Democrats have expressed frustration that Maine politicians haven't shown such eagerness to take on Collins, who convincingly won her fifth term in 2020 even as Joe Biden was carrying the state.

However, it's still early enough in the election cycle for Democrats to land a serious candidate to take on a seemingly secure Republican. One New Englander—Elizabeth Warren—proved as much over a decade ago when, in September of 2011, she announced her campaign against Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.

Warren, a consumer protection expert who wasn't yet well-known to the public, seemed to have an uphill battle ahead of her. While Massachusetts is considerably bluer than Maine, Brown's popularity and big lead in the polls had dissuaded better-known Bay State Democrats from running. Warren, however, proved her doubters wrong and decisively defeated Brown.

Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff also faced down hordes of naysayers when he kicked off his campaign against Republican Sen. David Perdue in 2019—an announcement that also took place in September. Ossoff entered the race more than four months after former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, who was the first choice of just about every state and national Democrat, had decided not to run.

Georgia had not elected a single Democrat to statewide office since 2006, and Ossoff, who had lost a close House special election two years before, had to convince skeptics he was the one who could break that long losing streak. And break it he did: Ossoff narrowly unseated Perdue in a 2021 runoff on the same night that fellow Democrat Raphael Warnock won the special election for the Peach State's other Senate seat.

Any Democrat who takes on Collins will also have to show party leaders and activists that they're capable of succeeding where so many other Maine Democrats have failed. However, Warren and Ossoff's victories demonstrate that there's time for such a candidate to emerge—and that such a candidate might not be the most obvious name on the roster.

Too many people in politics have the memory of a goldfish. That’s why we always take the long view at The Downballot. Most political reporting happens in a vacuum, but here, context is king—and the item just above is a perfect example. If you appreciate the long-range perspective we bring to our coverage, we hope you’ll consider becoming a paid supporter today.

The GOP war on direct democracy

Senate

AL-Sen

Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall announced Thursday that he would seek the Senate seat that fellow Republican Tommy Tuberville is giving up to run for governor.

Marshall entered statewide office in 2017 thanks to a chain of events that began with Donald Trump's victory the previous year.

Trump selected longtime Sen. Jeff Sessions to join his cabinet as his attorney general, prompting Gov. Robert Bentley to appoint state Attorney General Luther Strange to succeed him in the upper chamber. Bentley then chose Marshall, a former Democrat who at the time was district attorney for Marshall County (no relation?), to be the state's new top lawyer.

The new attorney general, however, would be the only member of this group to benefit politically from this game of musical chairs. While Bentley, Strange, and Sessions all lost their posts under humiliating circumstances—and Trump would rant that he never should have appointed Sessions in the first place—Marshall won a full term in 2018 and again in 2022.

Marshall, who joined Attorney General Ken Paxton's failed lawsuit to overturn Trump's 2020 loss, made national news two years later when he refused to tell the Senate if he believed Joe Biden was "duly elected." He also argued in court the following year that his office had the authority to prosecute any group that helped women leave the state to obtain an abortion.

Several other Republicans are eyeing the race to replace Tuberville, including a billionaire with ties to one of the most famous names in the state. Car dealer Joe Agresti, who is in business with former University of Alabama football coach Nick Saban, told Forbes last month he was thinking of running for federal office.

Agresti doesn't appear to have said anything more about his plans since then. His words, though, attracted renewed attention after Tuberville announced Tuesday that he was leaving the Senate to pursue Alabama's open governorship.

Morning Digest: Tommy Tuberville will bail on the Senate after just one term

MI-Sen, MI-04

Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga reiterated Thursday that he remains interested in running for Michigan's open Senate seat even as party leaders have pressured him to stay out of the race. Huizenga told reporters he has been gathering a team for his potential statewide race and plans to decide this summer.

The congressman had previously brushed off a report from Axios late last month saying that a top official with the NRSC had informed donors that the only Michigan Republican they should contribute to is former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost last year's race for the state's other Senate seat. In his latest remarks, Huizenga argued that Rogers doesn't deserve to be the party's nominee again.

"I want to make sure we win. I want to make sure we've got the right candidate to do that," Huizenga said. "I personally think it should have been won last election. It didn't. And the question is: Are we going to run the same play and expect a different result?"

Morning Digest: Michigan Republican who fell just short in '24 will run for Senate again

Members of Donald Trump's team also have concerns about Huizenga running for Senate, according to a separate report from Axios' Alex Istenstadt earlier this week—but their worries are about his House seat. Huizenga's 4th District backed Trump only 52-46, according to calculations by The Downballot, which could make his southwestern Michigan constituency especially vulnerable if the incumbent doesn't seek reelection.

Huizenga, however, said Thursday he'd recently spoken to Trump about his potential statewide bid. If the GOP's supreme master expressed any trepidation about Huizenga running for Senate—including the almost $4 million that Isenstadt says Trump's people think the GOP would need to spend to defend an open 4th District—the congressman didn't let on.

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Governors

AZ-Gov

A new poll finds far-right Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs defeating wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson 57-25 in next year's Republican primary for governor. The survey was conducted by KStrat on behalf of the conservative organization American Commitment, a group that the Arizona Republic's Stacey Barchenger says is linked to one of Biggs' consultants.

Noble Predictive Insights separately polled the general election, finding Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs outpacing Robson and Biggs 41-39 and 40-38, respectively.

NE-Gov

Wealthy agribusinessman Charles Herbster could seek a rematch against Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen in next year's Republican primary, a spokesperson tells the Nebraska Examiner's Aaron Sanderford. The comments came the same day that Pillen, who narrowly won their first bout in 2022, kicked off his campaign for a second term.

NJ-Gov

A super PAC backing Rep. Mikie Sherrill in the Democratic primary has debuted ads aimed at countering commercials attacking her for previously accepting contributions from the corporate PAC of Elon Musk's SpaceX and for trading stocks while in office.

"Independent news sources praise Mikie Sherrill's ethical standards, saying she went 'above and beyond,'" says the narrator for One Giant Leap. "When Trump and Musk threatened New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill stood her ground, named as one of Musk's top critics."

The spot, which the New Jersey Globe says has "seven figures" behind it, features footage of Sherrill's five intraparty rivals as the narrator decries the "[s]ame old politicians." The ad, however, doesn't name any of Sherrill's opponents.

VA-Gov

Democrat Abigail Spanberger debuted her first TV ad this week, a 60-second spot that touts her time in the CIA and her bipartisan record in the House. The commercial does not mention Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, who began airing positive ads three weeks ago.

NBC, citing data from AdImpact, says that Spanberger is spending $140,000 on her new buy, in addition to the $500,000 she'd deployed on ads on other platforms. Earle-Sears, by contrast, has spent $870,000 on advertising to date. Spanberger, though, maintains a wide fundraising lead.

House

FL-20

Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick may have committed multiple violations of congressional ethics rules, according to a new report released on Thursday by the House Ethics Committee.

The report, which was produced by the independent Office of Congressional Conduct a year ago, concluded that the congresswoman may have "accepted campaign contributions linked to an official action."

It also said she may have sought funds under a program called Community Project Funding for a for-profit entity. That would run afoul of House rules, since such funds can only be directed toward nonprofits or governments at the state or local level.

The committee published the findings under rules requiring it to disclose such reports if it does not conclude an investigation within a year. Cherfilus-McCormick has also been under investigation by the committee since late 2023 regarding a host of alleged campaign finance violations.

Earlier this month, a health care company that Cherfilus-McCormick previously ran settled a lawsuit brought by the state of Florida demanding it repay $5.6 million in funds it mistakenly sent to the firm.

State officials had intended to pay Trinity Healthcare Services around $50,000 for assistance with COVID vaccination efforts but accidentally wound up sending the company more than 100 times that amount—cash that Cherfilus-McCormick then used to self-fund her successful bid for the House in 2021. Trinity now has until 2040 to return the money.

MD-05

Public safety consultant Harry Jarin has launched a challenge to Rep. Steny Hoyer in next year's Democratic primary, and he's explicitly calling out the 85-year-old congressman's age.

"I'm not trying to be cruel or callous," Jarin, 35, told Politico, "but I want Democrats to win, and there are consequences for having this gerontocracy, and we have to reckon with that."

Hoyer is the second-oldest voting member in the Democratic caucus, behind only California Rep. Maxine Waters, who is 86. (Democrat Eleanor Holmes-Norton, who represents Washington, D.C., as a non-voting delegate, is 87.)

He's also the longest-serving Democrat in the House, having won a special election in May of 1981. (On his website, Jarin notes that he was "[b]orn during Steny Hoyer's fifth term in Congress.") Only a pair of Republicans have been around longer: Kentucky's Hal Rogers and New Jersey's Chris Smith, who both took office in January of that same year.

Hoyer has yet to say whether he'll run for a 24th term representing Maryland's 5th District, a safely blue constituency in D.C.'s outer suburbs that voted for Kamala Harris by a 66-32 margin.

MN-05

AIPAC, the hawkish pro-Israel group, is trying to recruit former state House Majority Leader Ryan Winkler to run against Rep. Ilhan Omar in next year's Democratic primary, according to an unnamed source who spoke with The Intercept. Winkler did not respond when asked for comment.

VA-11

A trio of new Democratic candidates have entered the race for Virginia's 11th District, which will host a special election following the death of longtime Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly last week.

The new contenders include attorney and energy policy expert Amy Roma; Navy veteran Josh Aisen; and former Commerce Department official Leo Martinez.

None have run for office before except Martinez—in Venezuela, where he served in the country's National Assembly from 2000 to 2005, until his family was forced to flee by then-President Hugo Chavez.

Martinez was later tapped by Joe Biden to serve as head of the Inter-American Development Bank, but his nomination was blocked by Ted Cruz, who falsely claimed he'd "served under Chavez" (Martinez was a member of the opposition).

Three other notable Democrats were already running, though it's not clear when they'll all face off. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin must call a special election, but Virginia law does not specify a timetable for him to do so.

Mayors & County Leaders

Boston, MA Mayor

A super PAC backing nonprofit head Josh Kraft is spending $2.4 million on negative ads targeting Boston Mayor Michelle Wu through July, the Boston Globe reports. The two candidates, who both identify as Democrats, are the only two serious contenders running in this fall's officially nonpartisan race.

The commercials, which argue that the city is "heading in the wrong direction" under Wu, represent the first attack ads aired in the contest. The spots do not mention Kraft, who is the son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft.

The ad blitz comes from a group called "Your City, Your Future" that has received much of its funding from two prominent contributors: New Balance owner Jim Davis, who is a prominent Republican donor, and Michael Rubin, whom the Globe says "has close ties with" the elder Kraft.

Buffalo, NY Mayor

Acting Buffalo Mayor Christopher Scanlon and former city Fire Commissioner Garnell Whitfield both submitted signatures this week to form new parties so that they can appear on the November ballot—whether or not they win the June 24 Democratic primary for mayor.

State Sen. Sean Ryan, who is also seeking the Democratic nod, previously earned the support of the progressive Working Families Party, which also assures him of a spot in the general election.

Scanlon, who became mayor last year when longtime incumbent Byron Brown resigned to head western New York's state-run gambling agency, faces a tough battle to keep his new job. Ryan, who has the endorsement of the Erie County Democratic Committee, has brought in more money than the incumbent, thanks in part to funds he's transferred from his legislative account. Ryan has also outspent Scanlon and the rest of the field.

However, it's Scanlon who goes into the final weeks of the campaign with a hefty $670,000 to $140,000 cash edge on Ryan. A third candidate, Common Council Member Rasheed Wyatt, had only $30,000 in the bank, while Whitfield had even less. It takes just a simple plurality to prevail in next month's primary.

Winning the Democratic nomination is usually tantamount to election in this dark blue city, with one big recent exception. After his shock loss in the 2021 primary against first-time candidate India Walton, Brown responded by waging a successful write-in campaign for the general election. That experience could explain why so many Democrats are looking past the June nominating contest.

"I think the candidates are thinking anything is possible, so why not?" former Assemblyman Sam Hoyt told Buffalo's NPR affiliate. "Why not be in the game?"