Morning Digest: Two new Democrats could challenge highly vulnerable Michigan Republican

One quit as Ukraine ambassador to protest Trump. The other carried the nuclear football.

Bridget Brink, then U.S. ambassador to Slovakia, at a military training facility in Lest, Slovakia, with American soldiers in 2019 (credit: U.S. Air National Guard / Jonathan Padish)

Leading Off

MI-07

Two well-connected Democrats are reportedly planning to challenge Republican Rep. Tom Barrett in Michigan's 7th District, which is one of the swingiest House seats in the nation.

Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin broke the news Wednesday night that Bridget Brink, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, "is preparing to run" against the first-term Republican. Brink responded the next day with a statement confirming that she's "seriously considering a campaign for Congress."

The Detroit News and Punchbowl News separately reported the next day that retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, who served as an aide to Barack Obama, is also mulling the race for this Lansing-based constituency. The Detroit News added that Maasdam plans to enter the contest sometime this summer, after the new fundraising quarter begins in July. The would-be candidate has yet to say anything publicly about his interest.

Brink was a longtime foreign service official when Donald Trump tapped her to serve as ambassador to Slovakia. She was still holding that post in 2022 when Joe Biden picked her to become the nation's top diplomat in Ukraine two months after Russia launched its unprovoked invasion.

Brink became a prominent figure and initially stayed on in her role after Trump reclaimed the White House. The ambassador, though, announced her resignation last month and soon after blamed Trump.

"'[T]he policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia," Brink wrote in a piece for the Detroit Free Press. "As such, I could no longer in good faith carry out the administration's policy and felt it was my duty to step down."

Maasdam, for his part, served in Afghanistan and Iraq before becoming a national security aide in the Obama administration. His duties included carrying the "nuclear football," the briefcase that allows the president to authorize the use of nuclear weapons.

Several other Democrats could also take on Barrett. The Detroit News mentions that former House Minority Leader Donna Lasinski has been "floated" as a possible candidate, though there's no word if she's interested.

The paper also says the same of state Sen. Sarah Anthony, whose name first surfaced a month after Barrett flipped this seat last year. Anthony does not appear to have said anything over the ensuing months, however.

Marine veteran Andrew Lennox, who works at Ann Arbor's VA hospital, has also been talked about as a possible contender. Lennox showed interest in running for office as a Democrat in March after he was temporarily "fired by DOGE" (as he put it), and Politico reported the following month that he was thinking about challenging Barrett.

But while the field is still taking shape, there's no question that Democrats will make flipping this seat a top priority. The 7th District, according to calculations by The Downballot, supported Donald Trump by a slim 50-49 margin, four years after Joe Biden carried it by an even narrower 49.4 to 48.9 spread.

Barrett himself is also quite familiar with how swingy this area is. The Republican's 2022 campaign against Democratic incumbent Elissa Slotkin ended with a 52-46 loss, but he had a better opportunity last year when Slotkin left to successfully run for the Senate and outpaced Democrat Curtis Hertel 50-47. Both parties are preparing for another hotly contested battle for this seat.

How MA AG Andrea Campbell is fighting Trump

Senate

WV-Sen

State Sen. Tom Willis said Wednesday that he would challenge Sen. Shelly Moore Capito in next year's Republican primary.

Willis, who told WEPM Radio he was "kind of just doing a soft launch right now," made his plans known a few days after Donald Trump endorsed Capito for reelection. The legislator joins former Del. Derrick Evans, who served three months in prison for his participation in the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol, in opposing Capito for renomination in this dark red state.

Willis, an Army veteran, ran for West Virginia's other U.S. Senate seat in 2018 and ended up taking fourth place in the primary with 10% of the vote. He had far better fortune last year, though, when he successfully challenged state Senate President Craig Blair, at the time one of the most powerful Republicans in the state.

"I really didn't intend to run, but my friends called me and explained to me what the Senate president is doing," Willis said ahead of the primary. He went on to accuse Blair of "voting for allowing 'chemical castration' for minors and giving $290 million of our West Virginia taxpayer dollars to a Green New Deal, DEI Form Energy company run by anti-gun Bill Gates."

Willis laid out a similar set of grievances on social media against unnamed "politicians" on Wednesday. He did not, however, mention Capito by name in his announcement.

Governors

AL-Gov, AL-Sen

Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville tells CNN he'll announce Tuesday if he's running for governor, though just about everyone anticipates he'll go for it. The far-right Club for Growth is so confident that it's already endorsed Tuberville's still-undeclared campaign to succeed term-limited Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey.

FL-Gov, FL-Sen

Former Rep. David Jolly told a Democratic gathering on Monday that he plans to announce his campaign for governor of Florida in mid-June. Jolly, who served in Congress from 2014 to 2017 as a Republican before becoming an anti-Trump independent, would be the first notable Democrat in the race for this open seat. (He formally switched his registration earlier this year.)

Teacher Josh Weil, meanwhile, informed that same crowd he intends to kick off his own campaign against Republican Sen. Ashley Moody on June 21. Weil, who ran in the special election for Florida's 6th District last month, would likewise be the first Democrat to take on Moody, though former National Security Council advisor Alexander Vindman also expressed interest in running last week.

ME-Gov

Maine state Sen. James Libby announced Thursday that he would enter next year's Republican primary for governor, more than two decades after losing a previous campaign for the same office.

Libby, who was first elected to the legislature back in 1992, left the state Senate in 2002 to campaign for governor. Libby, though, badly lost to former state Rep. Peter Cianchette, who went on to lose the general election to Democrat John Baldacci.

Libby, who returned to the legislature in 2022 after a 20-year absence, joins attorney Bobby Charles and businessman David Jones in the primary. Democrats also have a busy contest to replace Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who is term-limited.

NJ-Gov

Rep. Mikie Sherrill has publicized an internal poll that shows her beating Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop 33-16 in the June 10 Democratic primary for governor, with Newark Mayor Ras Baraka in third with 15%. Rep. Josh Gottheimer takes 11%, while former state Sen. Steve Sweeney and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller sit at 7% and 6%, respectively.

This four-day survey by Global Strategy Group went into the field on May 10, a day after federal authorities arrested Baraka and accused him of trespassing outside an Immigration and Customs Enforcement complex in his city. The Justice Department dropped the charges against Baraka this week while charging Rep. LaMonica McIver, a fellow New Jersey Democrat who was also at the facility, with assault.

Political observers have speculated that Baraka's confrontation with the Trump administration could help him stand out in this packed field, and the mayor is now trying to capitalize by airing ads in both English and Spanish focused on the incident. The New Jersey Globe, however, says the campaign is spending just $250,000 to broadcast its new message on TV as well as on radio and digital platforms.

Sherrill, who has led in every single poll that anyone has released, continues to look like the candidate to beat, and her opponents are acting accordingly.

A pro-Fulop super PAC called the Coalition for Progress just launched a commercial attacking the congresswoman for previously accepting contributions from the corporate PAC of Elon Musk's SpaceX and for trading stocks while in office. The offensive comes just days after Baraka began airing a spot using the very same arguments to hit Sherrill, who is the only candidate who has been targeted by negative ads.

House

IL-02

Matteson Village Clerk Yumeka Brown, who is also an elected commissioner on the Chicago-area Metropolitan Water Reclamation District, has entered the Democratic primary for Illinois' open 2nd District. Brown joins state Sen. Robert Peters and nonprofit head Adal Regis in running to succeed Rep. Robin Kelly, a fellow Democrat who is giving up this safely blue seat to run for the Senate.

IL-09

State Rep. Kelly Cassidy said this week that she'd support Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss in the Democratic primary for Illinois' 9th District rather than enter the race herself. Biss is one of several candidates running to succeed retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky in this reliably Democratic seat.

TX-02

State Rep. Steve Toth hinted Wednesday that he'd challenge Rep. Dan Crenshaw in next year's Republican primary for Texas's 2nd District, a dark red constituency based in Houston's northern suburbs.

"We're going to have something to announce on July 1," Toth told conservative radio host Kenny Webster. "Looking forward to the chance to maybe represent Texas in D.C."

This would be Toth's second time attempting to unseat a GOP congressman. Toth, whose first stint in the state House ended following an unsuccessful 2014 state Senate bid, opposed Rep. Kevin Brady in the 2016 primary for the last version of the 8th District.

In that race, Toth positioned himself as a hardline, anti-establishment alternative to Brady, who chaired the powerful Ways and Means Committee. The incumbent recognized that he was in danger and deployed his massive war chest to make sure that he'd be able to win the majority of the vote and avoid what could have been an unpredictable runoff campaign.

The plan worked, if only just: Brady turned back Toth 53-37, with the balance going to two minor candidates. Toth rebounded from the defeat two years later by winning back his old seat in the state House, while Brady retired ahead of the 2022 elections.

Crenshaw, a Navy SEAL veteran who also won his current job in 2018, has spent his four terms in office as an ardent Trump ally. The congressman, though, has a very different relationship when it comes to another influential ultra-conservative.

In February, Crenshaw was recorded telling a journalist that, when it comes to Tucker Carlson, "If I ever meet him, I'll fucking kill him." While those comments apparently weren't intended for public consumption, Crenshaw had previously tweeted that Carlson was a "cowardly, know-nothing elitist."

While Democrats once hoped that their emerging strength in Houston's Harris County could put the 2nd District into play, Republican legislators passed a gerrymander in 2021 to ensure it would remain firmly in their grasp. Calculations by The Downballot show that the current incarnation of the district, which now includes Toth's base in Montgomery County, backed Trump 61-38 last year.

VA-11

Fairfax County Planning Commissioner Candice Bennett said last week that she would seek the Democratic nomination for Virginia's open 11th District, an announcement that came just days before Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly died in office.

Bennett joins Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky in the nomination contest for this dark blue seat. Walkinshaw, who entered the race last month with Connolly's support, also received an endorsement earlier this week from Rep. Don Beyer of the neighboring 8th District.

A special election will be held to fill the vacancy created by Connolly's death, but it's unclear whether nominees will be chosen through traditional state-run primaries or by another means, such as smaller-scale, party-run "firehouse primaries," or via party conventions.