Morning Digest: Michigan Republican who fell just short in '24 will run for Senate again
Mike Rogers has undergone a dramatic MAGAfication. How will that play?
Leading Off
MI-Sen
Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers announced on Monday that he would run for the Senate, five months after he narrowly lost the general election for Michigan's other Senate seat.
Democrat Elissa Slotkin won that race 48.6-48.3 last year as Donald Trump was carrying the state 50-48, but prominent Republicans remain in Rogers' corner despite his underperformance. The former congressman began his second statewide campaign with endorsements from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Tim Scott, the South Carolina senator who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
But while Rogers currently has the GOP primary to himself, that show of force may not deter other Republicans from joining the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Rep. Bill Huizenga confirmed his interest in running to Fox News over the weekend, and the New York Times writes that he's "expected" to get in.
Huizenga, though, informed Fox's Paul Steinhauser that he doesn't anticipate making his decision until "sometime this summer or right after Labor Day," but he's arguing that he's worth waiting for. The congressman responded to Rogers' announcement Monday by tweeting that Michigan Republicans, who last won a Senate race in 1994, must have "someone who can win."
Several more Republicans are eyeing this seat, though wealthy businessman Kevin Rinke now tells the National Journal he's no longer one of them. Rinke, who took second place in the 2022 primary for governor, said Monday, "If I run for a position it's not for Senate."
Meanwhile, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow is currently the only major Democrat running, though several other big names are talking about getting in.
Rogers, for his part, used the days before he launched his second Senate campaign to spread conspiracy theories about how his first one ended. Far-right commentator Garrett Soldano hosted Rogers last week and mused that the ex-congressman must have gone to bed on election night leading Slotkin "only to wake up, what the heck happened."
Rogers jumped in, "Not to mention the very unusual truckload of ballots showing up at, you know, 4 in the morning in Detroit. We were winning up till that point." Slotkin responded on social media, "That's not what @MikeRogersForMI said when he called me to concede last November."
Rogers, who responded to the Jan. 6 riot by saying of Trump, "Well, you're damn right you had responsibility for this," might have been surprised to hear himself utter such Trump-like language at one time. But while Rogers, who was elected to the House in 2000 and retired ahead of the 2014 election, spent his seven terms cultivating a pragmatic image, he started to align himself with MAGA when he came out of retirement to run for the Senate last cycle.
Trump responded favorably to Rogers' transformation, and his endorsement last year helped the ex-congressman overwhelmingly win the GOP primary. But Rogers, who had moved to Florida after leaving Congress, spent the general election failing to explain exactly where he actually lived upon his apparent return to Michigan. (The Michigan Advance memorably asked, "Where is Mr. Rogers' neighborhood?")
Rogers had also briefly considered challenging Trump in the most recent presidential primary and struggled to explain his condemnations of his party's leader. The candidate told CNN weeks ahead of Election Day, "​​I didn't say he was clearly responsible" for the Jan. 6 riot. Slotkin responded to her rival's about-face by telling him, "I want the 2014 Mike Rogers back."
The Rogers everyone saw in 2024, though, is the one who will be running for Senate in 2026. He kicked off his new campaign by proclaiming, "I'll stand with President Trump and we will deliver on the mandate given to him by the American people."
Election Night
Oakland, CA Mayor
Former Rep. Barbara Lee and former City Councilman Loren Taylor are the frontrunners in today's special election to replace former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao, a fellow Democrat whom voters recalled by a 61-39 margin last year.
Seven other candidates are on the ballot in this officially nonpartisan race, which will be conducted using ranked choice rules, but none have attracted much attention. The winner will be up for a full four-year term in November of next year.
Lee, who spent 27 years representing the East Bay in Congress, began the race as the favorite, but her opponents have argued that she's no longer poised for victory. Taylor's campaign released an internal poll in late March showing Lee only narrowly ahead, and his allies soon publicized more data giving Taylor the advantage. Neither Lee nor any of her supporters ever responded with contrary numbers.
Taylor, who narrowly lost to Thao in 2022, is arguing that Lee is part of the status quo that's failed Oakland. Taylor, 47, is 31 years Lee's junior and has also criticized his opponent for urging voters not to recall Thao, whom federal prosecutors later indicted for bribery and other charges. Taylor and his backers have enjoyed a modest spending advantage over Lee's side.
The ex-congresswoman has responded by saying that she has the expertise to lead the city and by noting that she has the backing of several pro-recall figures. Lee and her allies have also portrayed the former city councilman as the true insider in the contest, highlighting that Taylor has received financial support from one of Elon Musk's former business partners.
Election officials tell Oaklandside they'll release initial ranked-choice tabulations tonight, but it will be some time before all votes are tallied. More voters will be counted on Friday, and another update is set for April 25.
Senate
NC-Sen
The progressive group Carolina Forward has released a poll showing former Gov. Roy Cooper leading Republican Sen. Thom Tillis 48-45 in a hypothetical general election matchup. Cooper has not yet announced if he will seek the Democratic nomination.
This survey from Change Research was completed before former Rep. Wiley Nickel entered the Democratic primary and did not test Nickel against Tillis.
Governors
CO-Gov
Former Rep. Greg Lopez announced Monday that he would run for Colorado's open governorship, making him perhaps the most prominent Republican to do so—though that isn't saying much.
Lopez, a former mayor of the Denver suburb of Parker, served just six months in the House after winning a special election last year. That outcome, though, was better than his experience in prior attempts at high office: Lopez unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination for Senate in 2016 before losing both the 2018 and 2022 primaries for governor.
Following those failures, Lopez instead offered himself as a candidate in last year's special election to replace fellow Republican Ken Buck, who had resigned from the dark red 4th District in the eastern part of the state—with the pledge that he would not run for a full term.
This was just fine with far-right Rep. Lauren Boebert, who had opted to leave behind the more competitive 3rd District so she could instead run in Buck's open 4th. Boebert did not run in the special but rather urged GOP leaders to pick a placeholder, and delegates obliged, narrowly opting for Lopez over Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg. Lopez went on to easily win the general election on the same day that Boebert defeated Sonnenberg 44-14 in a six-way primary for a full term.
The GOP field for governor already consisted of state Sen. Mark Baisley, state Rep. Scott Bottoms, and Teller County Sheriff Jason Mikesell. State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer also expressed interest in running in December, but she does not appear to have said anything more recently.
NJ-Gov
Rep. Mikie Sherrill has publicized an internal poll from Global Strategy Group showing her defeating fellow Rep. Josh Gottheimer 25-15 in the June 10 Democratic primary for governor of New Jersey.
Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka are tied for third with 13% each, while New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller and former state Sen. Steve Sweeney clock in at 12% and 6%, respectively. Every poll that's been made public has found Sherrill ahead, though there's no consensus on who her main opponent is.
Former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, meanwhile, has shown the New Jersey Globe his own poll placing him far ahead in the GOP primary. National Research finds Ciattarelli outpacing his nearest opponent, conservative radio host Bill Spadea, 50-22, which the firm says is an improvement from his 41-22 lead in a previously unreleased February poll. The few other surveys we've seen have also shown Ciattarelli, who was the party's 2021 nominee, on top.
House
CA-22
Randy Villegas, a school board trustee in the Central Valley city of Visalia, announced Monday that he would challenge Republican Rep. David Valadao in California's 22nd District. Villegas, whose community is divided between the nearby 20th and 21st Districts, is the first Democrat to launch a campaign against Valadao in a constituency that swung hard to the right last year.
Villegas told Politico's Nicholas Wu he'll keep running even if former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, who unsuccessfully challenged Valadao in 2022 and 2024, wages a third effort. Salas filed paperwork with the FEC in December, but he has yet to announce if he'll run again. Villegas, who once interned for Salas, said that he respects his old boss but believes that "voters are ready for a new face."
The 22nd District, a sprawling Central Valley seat that's home to a large Latino electorate, backed Donald Trump 52-46 four years after it favored Joe Biden 55-42. That massive shift meant Valadao, who has a long history of running far ahead of the top of the ticket, this time didn't need to secure crossover support: The congressman fended off Salas 53-47, compared to his 52-48 win in 2022.
Valadao, though, narrowly lost reelection in 2018 during Trump's first midterm election before regaining his seat in 2020, and Villegas thinks a similar backlash could be on its way. The new challenger told Wu that "Valadao won't stand up to Musk, to Trump, to his Republican colleagues" to protect vital programs like Medicaid and free school lunches.
FL-19
Businessman Jim Schwartzel, who runs the Sun Broadcasting network, has joined the Republican primary for Florida's conservative 19th District. Schwartzel's company owns several conservative radio and TV stations, including Trump Country 93.7, which Florida Politics described in 2020 as a Fort Myers radio station that "mix[es] singles about tailgates and heartaches with segues from a President Donald Trump impersonator."
Schwartzel entered the race a few weeks after Jim Oberweis, who is a former Illinois state senator, kicked off his own campaign. Several more Republicans—including many who've won or unsuccessfully sought office in other states—are considering running to replace Rep. Byron Donalds, who is the Republican frontrunner for governor.
MI-13
Former state Sen. Adam Hollier announced on Monday that he would once again challenge Rep. Shri Thanedar in the Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th District, a safely blue seat that includes much of Detroit.
Thanedar defeated Hollier 28-24 in the busy 2022 primary to succeed retiring Rep. Brenda Lawrence, an outcome that left the city without a Black representative in Congress for the first time since the early 1950s. (Thanedar is Indian American while Detroit's other House member, Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, is Palestinian American.)
Hollier tried to run again in 2024 but did not make the ballot after election officials determined that he'd failed to turn in enough valid signatures. The former legislator told the Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke earlier this month that he was determined to avoid the same problem, which has sunk many other Michigan candidates, saying that his setback last year "was the most expensive lesson I will ever learn."
Hollier kicked off his new effort by arguing that the wealthy Thanedar, who has deployed millions of his own money to win and keep his seat, is one of the "millionaires and billionaires trying to buy our government." His entry also comes a week after Burke first reported that Thanedar reimbursed himself for over half of the $930,000 in taxpayer money that his office spent on advertising last year.
Hollier, though, may not be the only Democrat eager to stop Thanedar. Politico reported in late February that state Rep. Donavan McKinney was considering running, though he still has yet to confirm anything publicly. Burke also mentions former state Sen. Ian Conyers and Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters as possible contenders. Waters ran last year, but Thanedar's staggering financial advantage helped him prevail 55-34.
NH-01
Marine veteran Maura Sullivan has secured an endorsement from VoteVets, a well-funded group that backs Democrats with backgrounds in national security, in the primary to succeed Rep. Chris Pappas. VoteVets aired ads for Sullivan during her unsuccessful 2018 primary against Pappas, who is now giving up his competitive House seat to run for the Senate.
Former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen, meanwhile, confirmed to WMUR that she's also interested in seeking the Democratic nomination for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District. Shaheen, who is the daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, used that same interview to endorse Pappas in the race to replace her mother. The outgoing senator, however, has yet to back a successor.
WI-03
Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge filed FEC paperwork on Friday for a potential campaign against Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, though she did not immediately announce whether she would run for the Democratic nomination. Berge would face businesswoman Rebecca Cooke, who lost a close race to Van Orden, in the primary for Wisconsin's 3rd District.
Judges
NC Supreme Court
Democrat Allison Riggs filed a notice of appeal on Monday indicating she would ask the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals to review a decision by a federal judge who largely ruled against her in a terse opinion issued Saturday.
In that brief ruling, U.S. District Court Judge Richard Myers declined to block an order by the North Carolina Supreme Court that could retroactively throw out thousands of votes cast in last fall's election for the state's highest court. Riggs won that race by 734 votes over Republican Jefferson Griffin, a victory confirmed by two recounts.
Riggs' briefing before the appellate court was not immeditately available Monday evening, but she previously argued to Myers that Griffin's attempt to disqualify certain votes violates the U.S. Constitution's guarantees of due process and equal protection of the law.
Mayors & County Leaders
Minneapolis, MN Mayor
City Council Member Emily Koski announced Monday that she was ending her campaign against Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, a fellow Democrat.
Koski's departure leaves state Sen. Omar Fateh as Frey's main intraparty opponent in the November general election, which will be conducted using ranked choice voting. Pastor DeWayne Davis and attorney Jazz Hampton are also running to lead Minnesota's largest city, though more candidates could enter the race ahead of the Aug. 12 filing deadline.
Filing closed yesterday for AZ07. Primary is 7/15 and whoever wins the primary pretty well wins the general election in a D+13 district. Main candidates are Daniel Hernandez, who ran in AZ06 in 2022 (lost in primary); Adelita Grijalva, who obv has the name; and Deja Foxx, an influencer who spoke at the DNC.
I hope Change Research will soon poll the strength for Wiley Nickel against Thom Tillis. Roy Cooper has the name recognition and popularity, but it would be good to have a clearer survey of the political landscape in the event that the good governor does not run for Senate.