That's unclear. The NC State Supreme Court seems largely in on the plot. How federal SCOTUS will react if the case reaches them is a crap shoot, but based on recent rulings, I suspect they'll side with Griffin.
Why do you have any faith in Kavanaugh? I think a 5-4 decision is likely. But then again, I was pleasantly very surprised by the 9-0 decision in favor of the Salvadoran refugee.
It'll be 6-3. Roberts/Coney Barrett has to know they'll either be removed from office or arrested on trumped-up charges if they don't rule in favor of Griffin.
I didn't realize being a Democrat meant the same thing as being a Republican-in this case denying reality.
The Republicans (and especially Trump's) depravity knows no bounds-having justices of the Supreme Court arrested on trumped-up charges is the tip of the iceberg of what they will do to get their way.
If we've reached the point where sitting Supreme Court justices will be jailed for a ruling unliked by the Administration, why even post here? Clearly the chance of free and fair federal elections are then zero, so then what's the point of election commentary?
If they’re willing to stand up to him on the Salvadoran deportation case, then they’re definitely not afraid of ruling against MAGA on a state-level election dispute that is way lower on Trump’s priority list.
Barrett hasn't shown cowardice, and she and Roberts are both on Trump's shit list, so I don't see how caving on this one issue would be a predictable act of self-preservation for them, and moreover, if the court ends democracy, they guarantee the demise of their reserved powers, and for those two, eventually their lives.
Your conspiracy theories are not helpful, Harrison. While few of us are confident that the Trump Regime will respect democracy’s guardrails, what you are describing is pretty far down on even the most extreme To-Do List,
My political predictions tend to be way off, so I'm bracing for the worst. If Griffin was challenging ALL the military and overseas voters who didn't use a photo ID (in accordance with state law last year), then SCOTUS would have 5 votes for him. But with all these different rulings from the SCONC and NC Court of Appeals, there probably isn't 5 SCOTUS votes in favor of Griffin (since it's obvious he's targeting specific voters).
And whomever representing Riggs argues the case to SCOTUS will emphasize Griffin violating federal law that protects military voters -- and how he voted that method when he himself was serving overseas. That will probably persuade Barrett to vote with the progressive judges (as well as Chief Justice himself).
Mike Rogers couldn't win in a Trump year, what makes him think that he could win in potentially a blue wave? He seems to be bent on ending his political career.
I hope Change Research will soon poll the strength for Wiley Nickel against Thom Tillis. Roy Cooper has the name recognition and popularity, but it would be good to have a clearer survey of the political landscape in the event that the good governor does not run for Senate.
Please mention AIPAC/UDP funding context when mentioning sources of big funding, such as self-fundraising. Especially relevant in MI-13 where UDP spent big against Thanedar in 2022 which led to him subsequently caving on unilateral support for Israel
Filing closed yesterday for AZ07. Primary is 7/15 and whoever wins the primary pretty well wins the general election in a D+13 district. Main candidates are Daniel Hernandez, who ran in AZ06 in 2022 (lost in primary); Adelita Grijalva, who obv has the name; and Deja Foxx, an influencer who spoke at the DNC.
Daniel Hernandez is one of the main reasons Gabby Giffords is alive, so I’m curious how much that story will play in a district with so much of Phoenix in it if he couldn’t win a primary in Tucson
"On Tuesday, the Thornton Democrat announced her candidacy for the 8th Congressional District race in 2026. She’s seeking a return to the post she held for the first two years of the district’s existence, from 2023 until her loss by a whisker to Republican U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans in November.
Caraveo spoke to The Denver Post ahead of her announcement, the culmination of a decision she has been mulling for several weeks.
“I think that the district is always going to be incredibly competitive, right?” Caraveo said. “So I know this is going to be a tough race. But I think that that very narrow margin of loss is a testament to the fact that people saw that I was taking a moderate and middle-of-the-road path, really keeping in mind what the district wanted me to do.”
The 44-year-old pediatrician and daughter of Mexican immigrants acknowledged that her loss last year came in what “was not an ideal year for Democrats.” She’s staking hope on the likelihood that the political dynamic will be significantly different next year during midterm elections that historically have favored the party out of power.
Her main focus is on potential cuts to Medicaid that could come as part of a budget that President Donald Trump has made clear he wants to see slimmed down. At her former Thornton medical practice, 65% of her patients relied on the program."
"But I think that that very narrow margin of loss is a testament to the fact that people saw that I was taking a moderate and middle-of-the-road path"...
Isn't it more likely that the close result simply reflects the district's partisan split?
Re the Oakland election: As of yesterday afternoon, turnout was only 18.9%. Early estimates were for 35% turnout and 18.9% seems low to me. Still, nearly all votes will be by mail and only need to be postmarked by today to be counted. Early voters tend to be more white, more affluent and more conservative so expect the early votes to favor Taylor. Similarly as those demographics are more apt to vote, a final lower turnout also favors Taylor.
The attacks on both candidates have been pretty far-fetched IMO. I doubt many people have paid much attention to that contribution or will alter their vote because of it, but I really do not know.
I missed your question. From the link in the lead story above: "$70,000 from Max Hodak, a biotech executive who helped found Elon Musk’s company Neuralink."
With respect to Loren Taylor’s candidacy, I would argue it has far less influence from anything this former business partner has done with Musk’s business ventures. If an actual PAC or Super PAC applied in this context, then I’d be more concerned.
Taylor happens to have an MBA at UC Berkeley, which is well-connected to Silicon Valley. Prior to serving in the Oakland City Council, he was a biomedical engineer, management consultant for businesses and non-profits and is an active member of the 100 Black Men of America organization.
I mean, Taylor’s an East Oakland native and been arguing for some time that he wants more support for East Oakland black businesses, which have been neglected for a long time by Oakland City Government. That’s not the rhetoric of someone who has ties to Musk. There are many black business leaders like Taylor who are arguing the same thing.
First results are posted in the mayor race. These show 17% of voters which is probably only the bulk of the ballots received as of Monday afternoon. The results are Loren Taylor 21,658 (48.96 %) and Barbara Lee 19,819 (44.81 %). Hopefully, there will be more tonight (or tomorrow). After that, I understand that the next posting will be Friday.
Rep. Donald Norcross (D-Camden) has been in the hospital for over a week now after suffering a medical emergency last weekend – and he might not be returning to Washington anytime in the near future.
In a new health update today, Norcross’s office clarified what medical issue has been afflicting the congressman – a gallbladder infection that led to sepsis – and stated that he faces an “extended recovery” at Cooper University hospital in Camden.
This is a real election steal worse than Bush v. Gore if anyone wondered.
Thankfully one more likely than not to fail in the courts.
That's unclear. The NC State Supreme Court seems largely in on the plot. How federal SCOTUS will react if the case reaches them is a crap shoot, but based on recent rulings, I suspect they'll side with Griffin.
I expect the Roberts/Barrett/Kavanaugh wing of SCOTUS to shoot this down.
Why do you have any faith in Kavanaugh? I think a 5-4 decision is likely. But then again, I was pleasantly very surprised by the 9-0 decision in favor of the Salvadoran refugee.
It'll be 6-3. Roberts/Coney Barrett has to know they'll either be removed from office or arrested on trumped-up charges if they don't rule in favor of Griffin.
Please stop with this.
I didn't realize being a Democrat meant the same thing as being a Republican-in this case denying reality.
The Republicans (and especially Trump's) depravity knows no bounds-having justices of the Supreme Court arrested on trumped-up charges is the tip of the iceberg of what they will do to get their way.
If we've reached the point where sitting Supreme Court justices will be jailed for a ruling unliked by the Administration, why even post here? Clearly the chance of free and fair federal elections are then zero, so then what's the point of election commentary?
We're not the only country in the world-surely we could transition to covering elections in other countries?
If this country becomes a dictatorship, do you think we won't all be arrested?
If they’re willing to stand up to him on the Salvadoran deportation case, then they’re definitely not afraid of ruling against MAGA on a state-level election dispute that is way lower on Trump’s priority list.
Barrett hasn't shown cowardice, and she and Roberts are both on Trump's shit list, so I don't see how caving on this one issue would be a predictable act of self-preservation for them, and moreover, if the court ends democracy, they guarantee the demise of their reserved powers, and for those two, eventually their lives.
Your conspiracy theories are not helpful, Harrison. While few of us are confident that the Trump Regime will respect democracy’s guardrails, what you are describing is pretty far down on even the most extreme To-Do List,
My political predictions tend to be way off, so I'm bracing for the worst. If Griffin was challenging ALL the military and overseas voters who didn't use a photo ID (in accordance with state law last year), then SCOTUS would have 5 votes for him. But with all these different rulings from the SCONC and NC Court of Appeals, there probably isn't 5 SCOTUS votes in favor of Griffin (since it's obvious he's targeting specific voters).
And whomever representing Riggs argues the case to SCOTUS will emphasize Griffin violating federal law that protects military voters -- and how he voted that method when he himself was serving overseas. That will probably persuade Barrett to vote with the progressive judges (as well as Chief Justice himself).
Mike Rogers couldn't win in a Trump year, what makes him think that he could win in potentially a blue wave? He seems to be bent on ending his political career.
What political career? He doesn't have one right now. He hasn't been in office for a decade. The only way for him to have one is to win an election.
Scandal insurance, or the possibility of federally directed election tampering that benefits the GOP.
I hope Change Research will soon poll the strength for Wiley Nickel against Thom Tillis. Roy Cooper has the name recognition and popularity, but it would be good to have a clearer survey of the political landscape in the event that the good governor does not run for Senate.
Please mention AIPAC/UDP funding context when mentioning sources of big funding, such as self-fundraising. Especially relevant in MI-13 where UDP spent big against Thanedar in 2022 which led to him subsequently caving on unilateral support for Israel
Isn’t he also a crypto darling? So he has the axis of evil behind him.
You mentioned it. Was it part of the quote that was excepted in the digest?
Any mention of AIPAC leads to a huge fight over that one issue we aren't supposed to talk about.
Does it, now that they're so closely associated with right-wing Republican politics in the U.S.?
Filing closed yesterday for AZ07. Primary is 7/15 and whoever wins the primary pretty well wins the general election in a D+13 district. Main candidates are Daniel Hernandez, who ran in AZ06 in 2022 (lost in primary); Adelita Grijalva, who obv has the name; and Deja Foxx, an influencer who spoke at the DNC.
Daniel Hernandez is one of the main reasons Gabby Giffords is alive, so I’m curious how much that story will play in a district with so much of Phoenix in it if he couldn’t win a primary in Tucson
AZ07 actually is south Tucson (including downtown) south to the border. And the weird thing is... Gabby Giffords has endorsed Adelita Grijalva.
"On Tuesday, the Thornton Democrat announced her candidacy for the 8th Congressional District race in 2026. She’s seeking a return to the post she held for the first two years of the district’s existence, from 2023 until her loss by a whisker to Republican U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans in November.
Caraveo spoke to The Denver Post ahead of her announcement, the culmination of a decision she has been mulling for several weeks.
“I think that the district is always going to be incredibly competitive, right?” Caraveo said. “So I know this is going to be a tough race. But I think that that very narrow margin of loss is a testament to the fact that people saw that I was taking a moderate and middle-of-the-road path, really keeping in mind what the district wanted me to do.”
The 44-year-old pediatrician and daughter of Mexican immigrants acknowledged that her loss last year came in what “was not an ideal year for Democrats.” She’s staking hope on the likelihood that the political dynamic will be significantly different next year during midterm elections that historically have favored the party out of power.
Her main focus is on potential cuts to Medicaid that could come as part of a budget that President Donald Trump has made clear he wants to see slimmed down. At her former Thornton medical practice, 65% of her patients relied on the program."
https://www.denverpost.com/2025/04/15/yadira-caraveo-colorado-8th-congressional-district-gabe-evans-election/
"But I think that that very narrow margin of loss is a testament to the fact that people saw that I was taking a moderate and middle-of-the-road path"...
Isn't it more likely that the close result simply reflects the district's partisan split?
Re the Oakland election: As of yesterday afternoon, turnout was only 18.9%. Early estimates were for 35% turnout and 18.9% seems low to me. Still, nearly all votes will be by mail and only need to be postmarked by today to be counted. Early voters tend to be more white, more affluent and more conservative so expect the early votes to favor Taylor. Similarly as those demographics are more apt to vote, a final lower turnout also favors Taylor.
Is the contribution by a former business partner of Musk really a concern? I could see how it might not be, but who is the contributor in question?
The attacks on both candidates have been pretty far-fetched IMO. I doubt many people have paid much attention to that contribution or will alter their vote because of it, but I really do not know.
I missed your question. From the link in the lead story above: "$70,000 from Max Hodak, a biotech executive who helped found Elon Musk’s company Neuralink."
Seems maybe OK.
With respect to Loren Taylor’s candidacy, I would argue it has far less influence from anything this former business partner has done with Musk’s business ventures. If an actual PAC or Super PAC applied in this context, then I’d be more concerned.
Taylor happens to have an MBA at UC Berkeley, which is well-connected to Silicon Valley. Prior to serving in the Oakland City Council, he was a biomedical engineer, management consultant for businesses and non-profits and is an active member of the 100 Black Men of America organization.
I mean, Taylor’s an East Oakland native and been arguing for some time that he wants more support for East Oakland black businesses, which have been neglected for a long time by Oakland City Government. That’s not the rhetoric of someone who has ties to Musk. There are many black business leaders like Taylor who are arguing the same thing.
https://www.postnewsgroup.com/loren-taylor-wants-more-support-for-east-oakland-black-businesses/
First results are posted in the mayor race. These show 17% of voters which is probably only the bulk of the ballots received as of Monday afternoon. The results are Loren Taylor 21,658 (48.96 %) and Barbara Lee 19,819 (44.81 %). Hopefully, there will be more tonight (or tomorrow). After that, I understand that the next posting will be Friday.
19.5% of total registration counted. Taylor's lead has dropped from 1839 to 1220. Current totals: Taylor 23,362 (48.25); Lee 22,142 (45.7%).
Rep. Donald Norcross (D-Camden) has been in the hospital for over a week now after suffering a medical emergency last weekend – and he might not be returning to Washington anytime in the near future.
In a new health update today, Norcross’s office clarified what medical issue has been afflicting the congressman – a gallbladder infection that led to sepsis – and stated that he faces an “extended recovery” at Cooper University hospital in Camden.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/donald-norcross-may-face-long-road-to-recovery-after-gallbladder-infection-sepsis/
I would think if the seat becomes vacant soon, Stephen Sweeney would drop down from the Governor's race to run here.
Sweeney vs. Durrrrrrrrrrrr rematch?
Game show host Wink Martindale passes away at 91. Martindale hosted numerous shows, including Tic Tac Dough, Gambit, High Rollers, and Debt.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/wink-martindale-dead-tic-tac-dough-game-show-host-1236191994/
Oakland Mayoral election going on. Loren Taylor leads in total and in RCV in the initial count: https://alamedacountyca.gov/rovresults/rcv/257/rcvresults.htm?race=Oakland%2F001-Mayor