Morning Digest: Tommy Tuberville will bail on the Senate after just one term

"I can't say that I've enjoyed it up here," says the newly minted gubernatorial hopeful

Republican Tommy Tuberville is leaving the Senate to run for governor of Alabama (credit: Tommy Tuberville campaign site)

Leading Off

AL-Sen, AL-Gov

Sen. Tommy Tuberville launched his long-anticipated campaign for Alabama's open governorship on Tuesday, a move that will likely trigger a packed Republican primary for the right to replace him in Congress.

The very next day, Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson became the first Republican to enter the race for Tuberville's now-open Senate seat. Hudson's only prior run for office was in 2022, when he lost an officially nonpartisan race for Jefferson County sheriff, a reliably Democratic community that's home to Birmingham, 52-48 against Democratic incumbent Mark Pettway.

According to the far-right site Daily Caller, White House aide Morgan Murphy is also "planning on running." Murphy, who is Tuberville's former national security advisor, has not said anything publicly about entering the race to replace his old boss.

Rep. Barry Moore, a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, told the conservative site 1819 News that he's interested in seeking a promotion, too. Attorney General Steve Marshall also reiterated that he has his eye on the race just a few days before Tuberville confirmed he would run to replace termed-out Gov. Kay Ivey.

The list, however, goes on. Semafor reports that some local politicos think Bruce Pearl, who coaches the men's basketball team at Auburn University, could run, but its sources sharply disagree on how likely such a campaign is. One person reportedly "heard Pearl plans to run," while "others are skeptical" the coach would want to give up his lucrative position.

Tuberville, who became a household name in Alabama as Auburn's football coach, also said he'd prefer that Pearl remain where he is.

"I wouldn't let him do it because he did such a good job at Auburn," the senator said of his would-be successor. "We need him there."

Tuberville might be wishing someone had given him similar advice. In January, just two months after saying he'd seek reelection, Tuberville expressed regret when asked by reporters if he might consider a gubernatorial bid instead.

"I can't say that I've enjoyed it up here," he admitted, "but I'm glad I've been in D.C. for the last four years." In fairness, the feeling among Republican senators is probably mutual.

Morning Digest: Why Senate Republicans won't be sad to see Tommy Tuberville run for governor

A few other Alabama Republicans had talked about running in the weeks before Tuberville confirmed he'd had enough of the Senate after just four years in office.

Former Secretary of State John Merrill and Kent David, the former commissioner of the state's Department of Veterans Affairs, both expressed interest in April, while attorney Caroleene Dobson also didn't rule it out. Former Rep. Mo Brooks, for his part, said, "It is possible I will run for the Senate, but unlikely."

Both Politico and The Hill mention several other possible candidates, including state House Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter and former Reps. Bradley Byrne and Jerry Carl. There is no word yet about whether any of them are interested.

Rep. Gary Palmer, however, took his name out of contention last month, while fellow Rep. Dale Strong also said no on Wednesday. Public Service Commission President Twinkle Cavanaugh, meanwhile, announced this week she was resigning to take a post in the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which likely takes her out of the running for the Senate.

Alabama requires candidates to win a majority of the vote in the primary to avoid a runoff, so a busy contest would likely go into overtime. The eventual GOP nominee will be heavily favored to replace Tuberville in this dark red state.

Tuberville, for his part, is on a glide path to win the GOP primary for governor in the first round. The only potential complication surrounds questions about how long Tuberville, who voted in Florida in 2018, has lived in the state he now wants to lead.

While questions about Tuberville's residency have dogged him since his 2020 Senate bid, they're much more meaningful now because Alabama requires candidates for governor to have lived in the state for seven years. Republicans have largely sidestepped the issue, but the state Democratic Party has promised a legal challenge.

Our tagline at The Downballot is, “Covering every race, from kickoff to call”—and we mean it. If anything, it’s an understatement, and the contest above is a perfect example: We’ve been following Tommy Tuberville’s gubernatorial flirtations since January, long before he actually launched a bid. If you appreciate our nose-to-tail coverage of elections, please consider becoming a paid subscriber today!

The Downballot Podcast

The GOP war on direct democracy

Republicans have been trying to make it harder for ordinary citizens to effect change at the ballot box for many years, and their latest effort has now washed ashore in the Sunshine State. This week on The Downballot podcast, Amy Keith, the executive director of Common Cause Florida, joins us to explain how a new GOP bill would impose wild new restrictions on the ballot initiative process, including making it a felony if grandma collects more than 25 signatures on bingo night. But, promises Keith, no matter the hurdles placed before them, Floridians just keep jumping higher.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also preview the top state supreme court races taking place across the country both this year and next. The Davids explain why once-sleepy "retention" elections could be the next major battleground in Pennsylvania and Arizona; how Democrats can expand their majorities in Michigan; and why you shouldn't sleep on Montana, whose top court has acted as an independent check on Republican power-grabs.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Senate

OH-Sen, OH-Gov

Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has rejected a new piece in Politico reporting that he wouldn't run for the Senate, with a spokesperson telling NOTUS' Alex Roarty on Wednesday that the claim was "untrue." They added that Brown "is considering all his options and hasn't ruled anything out."

Earlier the same day, at the very end of a lengthy profile focused on Republican Lt. Gov. Jim Tressel, Politico's Jonathan Martin wrote that Brown, 72, "has told people close to him that he has another campaign left in him and, if he runs, it will be for governor, not the Senate."

Brown had previously told the New York Times in March that he was looking at both races but did not indicate a preference.

SC-Sen

Pediatrician Annie Andrews announced Thursday morning that she would seek the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. Andrews is the first notable Democrat to launch a Senate campaign in conservative South Carolina.

Andrews previously ran for office in 2022, when she challenged Republican Rep. Nancy Mace in the 1st Congressional District. She raised $2 million for her campaign, but Mace prevailed 56-42.

Graham already faces an expensive primary battle against self-funding businessman Mark Lynch, who just publicized a new poll showing Graham ahead 43-29. Lynch argues that his survey, conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, shows that he has a path to victory over the incumbent.

TX-Sen

Attorney General Ken Paxton outpaces Sen. John Cornyn 43-34 in next year's Republican Senate primary, according to a new YouGov poll for Texas Southern University.

Paxton's lead against Cornyn doesn't change much when Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is considering seeking a promotion, is added to the mix: Paxton leads the senator 34-27, with Hunt taking 15% in this hypothetical three-way race. Texas requires primary candidates to win a majority of the vote to avert a runoff.

YouGov also tests each of the three Republicans in general election contests against Rep. Joaquin Castro and former Reps. Colin Allred and Beto O'Rourke, and it finds the GOP with a single-digit advantage in all nine scenarios. The smallest Republican lead is Paxton's 48-46 edge against Allred, while the widest is Cornyn's 48-41 advantage over Castro.

No Democrats have entered the race yet, though that may change soon. State Sen. Nathan Johnson, who was not included in this poll, confirmed to WFAA last week that he's thinking about running. Johnson added that he'd decide after the current legislative session ends on June 2.

Governors

AZ-Gov

State Treasurer Kimberly Yee announced Wednesday that she'd challenge State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne for renomination in next year's Republican primary, which takes her out of contention for the race for governor.

MI-Gov, MI-Sen

A new poll shows Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a longtime Democrat who's running as an independent, pulling equally from both parties in the open seat race for governor of Michigan.

The Glengariff Group's survey for the Detroit Regional Chamber, which the organization released as part of its annual Mackinac Policy Conference, tested six three-way match-ups that included Duggan and different combinations of major party opponents.

The closest scenario finds Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson edging out Republican Rep. John James 35-34, with Duggan at 22%. Glengariff notes that the mayor draws support about evenly across party lines rather than disproportionately from his old party, similar to the findings of a different poll in February.

Duggan takes third place in the other five scenarios Glengariff tested. The best performance for a Democrat is Benson's 36-26 advantage over state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, with Duggan just behind at 25%. The GOP's strongest showing is James' 35-29 lead over Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, while Duggan again takes 25%.

The firm also quizzed respondents about whom they'd favor in six different hypothetical general election lineups in next year's race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.

The widest lead for a Republican is former Rep. Mike Rogers' 47-41 advantage over former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Rep. Haley Stevens' 45-39 edge against Republican colleague Bill Huizenga, meanwhile, is the best for any Democrat. Huizenga, though, has yet to announce if he'll run.

NM-Gov

Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima, who had been preparing a bid for New Mexico's open governorship for some time, became the third notable candidate to join the Democratic primary this week.

Already seeking the party's nod are former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. The lone Republican in the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull.

SD-Gov

Wealthy businessman Toby Doeden announced Wednesday that he was entering the Republican primary for South Dakota's governorship. While Doeden has not previously run for office, he became one of the most influential hardliners in the state last year when he financed primary campaigns against legislators he deemed "fake Republicans."

Doeden's kickoff comes a month after state House Speaker Jon Hansen, who also aligns with the hard right, launched his own effort.

Gov. Larry Rhoden, who was elevated from the lieutenant governorship in January, has yet to announce his plans, but the Sioux Falls Argus Leader writes he's "anticipated to run for governor." The paper says the same about Rep. Dusty Johnson, who represents the entire state in the House.

A fifth Republican, Attorney General Marty Jackley, has also talked about seeking the governor's office, though the Dakota Scout said last month he was unlikely to oppose Rhoden.

House

AZ-06

The progressive veterans organization VoteVets has endorsed Joanna Mendoza, a retired Marine Corps drill instructor who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, as she seeks to unseat Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona's 6th District.

CA-41

Two more Democrats have entered the race to take on Republican Rep. Ken Calvert in California's 41st District: Abel Chavez, a member of a local school board, and attorney Anuj Dixit. They join a field that includes businessman Brandon Riker and former OneRepublic bassist Tim Myers, among others.

GA-01

Chatham County Commissioner Patrick Farrell just became the first Republican to kick off a bid for Georgia's 1st Congressional District following Rep. Buddy Carter's recent announcement that he'd run for Senate.

Farrell joins far-right activist Kandiss Taylor, who had launched a campaign for Carter's seat before the incumbent said he'd seek to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Also looking at the GOP primary is Bryan County Commissioner Carter Infinger.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that the usual flood of candidates eager to run for an open seat has yet to materialize because of doubts about whether Carter will actually remain in the Senate race if Donald Trump endorses someone else.

IL-02

Businessman Eric France, whose late father was a longtime government official in Chicago, has joined the Democratic primary for Illinois' open 2nd District. Separately, Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller says she's formed an exploratory committee.

In a press release, France described himself as "the first Democratic candidate to declare his bid for the seat," but at least three other notable names are already running: Matteson Village Clerk Yumeka Brown, state Sen. Robert Peters, and nonprofit head Adal Regis.

France's father, Erwin France, was described by the Chicago Sun-Times at the time of his death in 1995 as "a fixture in Chicago politics since the 1960s" who "worked with five mayors"—a record France emphasized in his statement announcing his campaign.

"With that DNA lineage," France went on, "the apple doesn't fall too far from the tree." He'll have to hope it drops a little further than usual, though: In 1976, the elder France challenged Rep. Ralph Metcalfe in the Democratic primary in the 1st District at the behest of Mayor Richard J. Daley but lost by a punishing 72-28 margin.

NH-01

Former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, has entered the race for New Hampshire's open 1st Congressional District. She joins Marine veteran Maura Sullivan in the Democratic primary for the right to succeed Rep. Chris Pappas, who is running for the seat held by the elder Shaheen.

NV-03

Conservative columnist Drew Johnson, who hadn't ruled out a second bid against Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in Nevada's 3rd District after losing 51-49 last year, says he'll run for state treasurer instead.

Attorneys General

NV-AG

Douglas County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian, who may be the most prominent perennial candidate in the country, announced Wednesday that he was seeking the Republican nomination for attorney general of Nevada.

Tarkanian's latest campaign comes just a few weeks after Treasurer Zach Conine, a Democrat, became the first notable candidate to enter the race to succeed termed-out Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. Other candidates from both parties are also sure to take a look at the race.

Morning Digest, sponsored by Campaign Hub: A critical race for attorney general is underway in Nevada

None of them, though, will be able to match Tarkanian's trove of experience running for office across the Silver State, though they might have an edge when it comes to actually winning.

Tarkanian hails from a family that's well-known in Nevada for multiple reasons: His father, Jerry Tarkanian, was a legendary basketball coach at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, while his mother, Lois Tarkanian, served on the Las Vegas City Council for many years as a Democrat.

The younger Tarkanian sought to follow in his parents' footsteps, but unlike them, he struggled mightily to achieve his dream of becoming a public figure. While living in the Vegas area, Tarkanian managed to lose his first six campaigns for political office, including:

• a 2004 general election for a seat in the state Senate;

• the 2006 general election for secretary of state;

• the 2010 GOP primary for the U.S. Senate;

• the 2012 general election for the 4th Congressional District;

• the 2016 general for the 3rd Congressional District; and

• the 2018 general, again for the 3rd District.

Tarkanian did come close in a few of these contests, and his wealth and connections to the state's hardcore conservatives ensured he was always more than a mere gadfly either party could dismiss.

At long last, though, he broke through in 2020—though only after relocating to Douglas County, a small rural outpost near Carson City located hundreds of miles to the north of Las Vegas. That year, Tarkanian narrowly beat an incumbent county commissioner in the primary, and he won the general election without opposition.

But Tarkanian soon reverted to form. As a newly minted elected official, he sought to challenge Rep. Mark Amodei for renomination in the 2nd District but lost by a 55-33 margin. However, he got to keep his spot on the Douglas County Commission last year after he turned back a primary foe—albeit by a slender 54-46 spread.

Judges

OH Supreme Court

Ohio Supreme Court Justice Pat Fisher has announced that he'll run against fellow incumbent Jennifer Brunner, the last Democrat holding statewide office, when she's up for another six-year term in 2026.

Fisher's term is set to end in 2028, but he can't run again then because he'll have hit the mandatory retirement age of 70 at the end of 2027. However, if he were to defeat Brunner, he'd be able to stay in office until 2032, because Ohio allows judges to complete their terms if they turn 70 while in office. (They can't seek a new term after they reach that age.)

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has released an internal poll that finds him trailing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo 56-44 in the final round of ranked-choice voting tabulations, which is notably closer than independent surveys had shown—until Wednesday.

Mamdani argues that his survey, which was conducted for his campaign by Workbench Strategy, shows he can pull off an upset if he can improve his name recognition over the final month of the Democratic primary.

Mamdani's internal was buttressed by a new independent poll giving Cuomo an even tighter 54-46 edge in the final round. This survey was conducted by Emerson College, which polled on behalf of PIX11 and The Hill.

Obituaries

Charlie Rangel

Former Rep. Charlie Rangel, an influential New York Democrat who represented Harlem and nearby neighborhoods from 1971 until his retirement in 2017, died Monday at the age of 94.

Rangel won the safely Democratic 18th District in 1970 after defeating the legendary Rep. Adam Clayton Powell by just 150 votes in the primary. In 2007, Rangel became the first Black person to chair the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, but he stepped aside in 2010 due to ethics issues.

The congressman's district not only swapped numbers repeatedly over the years, it saw major demographic changes as well. Toward the end of Rangel's career, what had once been a heavily Black area had become home to a large Dominican American electorate.

Partly as a result, Rangel's final campaigns saw him win tight primaries in 2012 and 2014 over state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, who was born in the Dominican Republic. Rangel retired after their second bout, and Espaillat narrowly beat Rangel's preferred successor in the 2016 primary.

The New York Times' Sam Roberts has much more on Rangel's decades-long career in city and national politics in his obituary.