SPR has a poll with Harris up 5% in PA10. Trump won this district by 4% in 2020. Trump absolutely has to win PA10 if he wants to win the state. Hopefully this is also good for the Democrat Janelle Stelson running here to replace Re. Scott Perry
SPR has a poll with Harris up 5% in PA10. Trump won this district by 4% in 2020. Trump absolutely has to win PA10 if he wants to win the state. Hopefully this is also good for the Democrat Janelle Stelson running here to replace Re. Scott Perry
Someone yesterday (Mark?) asked what kinds of places Harris was making gains this cycle. This is precisely the kind of place where you might expect that.
If you look at the swings towards Dems from 2016 -> 2020 that are over 5% they are all small to mid-sized states: (In order from highest swing to lowest): VT, CO, DE, NH, MD, CT, MA, ME, NE, KS, MN, GA, RI, OR. I'm still skeptical it's anything but noise but states like the above might account for slippage in FL/NY.
They might, but we should also look at the 2020 -> 2022 swing. Nate Cohn says that his polling data makes him think some of those patterns from the midterms may continue into 2024. That would mean relative gains for us in, well, exactly the right places: PA, MI, WI. Maybe AZ as well. And Midwest suburbs such as NE-02, Des Moines (IA-03), and KS-03. Offset by biggish losses in FL and NY.
In those states I listed Democrats generally outperformed expectations in the midterms too so I think both could be true. It may just be some shitty outliers in FL/NY or something else too though.
Yeah. FL vs NY case is kinda interesting as well. NY is the top source of transplants into FL, and obviously the transplants are quite red. So everything being equal, shouldn’t there be a red exodus (this is not hypothetical) that turns NY further bluer?
Account for the popular vote polls to make them work with the polls showing a drop in FL/NY. I'm skeptical of all of it but for the sake of the exercise, those states I mentioned may account for it.
The places Dems have been gaining lately tend to be ancestrally GOP, relatively white, and relatively well educated. I think PA10 fits the bill on all three of those.
TBH, ancestrally is probably used too loosely and there are few places where political traditions go back to ancestors. The only one that comes to mind is Eastern TN defying all Southern logic and being Republican.
The realignment of the 1900’s means few regions have political traditions that go back far enough. And then, the early 2000’s have only solidified that. No more liberal Republicans representing New England or conservative Democrats representing the South.
Thanks. If districts like PA-10 swing to the left by high single digits while the entire state more or less stays stagnant compared to 2020, which is what polls have been showing, I'd think that suggests there's slippage of a similar magnitude in other geographical areas, either the rural area or heavily minority urban areas like inner Philly, maybe both.
The question is whether the polling averages are accurately measuring the race. Right now the PA polling average on 538 includes a bunch of right-leaning polls (Trafalgar; Insider Advantage; Patriot Polling) that give Trump a lead. These same polls led 538 to give Oz a lead of 0.5% in 2022. Even though 538 tries to correct for house effects/biases of polls, they cannot totally negate the influence of red-leaning polls on their aggregation. So if Harris is leading in PA 10, this could (but need not) mean that her lead in PA is greater than what 538 is presently showing.
Yeah I agree that the current PA polling average is skewed by a bunch of right-leaning polls. However, even if we look at only the most reputable polls, I don't think any of them suggests KH is leading in PA by 9 - 10 points. If the 9 point swing in PA-10 is even close to being real, that means there's likely slippage elsewhere is all I'm saying.
A 9-10 point swing in one district need not mean a 9-10 point swing statewide. There might be relatively few districts like PA 10: suburbanish district that had not yet swung heavily towards Democrats. Most of the Philly suburban districts have already swung towards the Dems, with Bucks county showing the weakest swing. Parts of PA 10 are somewhat like the Philly suburbs: highly educated voters who might have supported Republicans in the past. If those voters are slower to move than their Philly area counterparts, and there are few if any other districts that are late swinger, then this swing might be somewhat isolated.
Hence a 9-10 point swing in PA 10 might only translate into a 1-3 point swing statewide, even without any countervailing swing in other areas towards Trump.
Yeah, we don't really disagree. I guess what I was saying was PA-10 represents a certain type of geographic/demographic, suburb/exurb. Its significant swing towards the left needs to be offset by the rightward swing in other dems/geographic areas to keep the entire state on the same level of competitiveness as 2020.
I'm increasingly convinced that it's wishful thinking that the 2022 electorate is gonna show up, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere. Midterm turnout has always skewed upscale and highly educated. In the past, that's meant Republican-leaning, but especially after Dobbs, it meant an electorate disproportionately friendly to Democrats in the new coalition. If more downscale and less educated voters show up in 2024, I suspect it cancels out the midterm turnout model and looks more like the 2016 and 2020 electorates that were much more Republican. Sure, Biden still won with the 2020 electorate, but after four years of additional downscale, less-educated voter realignment, I'm increasingly suspicious we'll look back on swing state polling as being too generous to Trump.
I bet the D friendly upscale electorate is not constant either. Would be a realignment further to D?
You might be correct that the downscale realignment Redding is bigger than the upscale realignment bluing, in the rust belt. I am not sure it is the case in GA/NC/TX where the downscale already went thru southern realignment but the upscale realignment is ongoing.
BTW, if there is no realignment, just pure migration redistribution, then a constant country level, some states Redding doesn’t mean there is always another state bluing. Think if we had only two states CA/TX, and the net migration CA->TX being redder than CA but bluer than TX. A static country level means both CA and TX getting bluer.
Right. I should have clarified that I was talking mostly about Pennsylvania in that response. It tracks some nationally as well, but not nearly as much in Texas or certainly Georgia, where the D-friendly upscale electorate is experiencing constant growth compared to those in the Rust Belt.
I probably didn't make clear enough that my comment was primarily focused on Pennsylvania rather than nationally. But even as it applies to the nonwhite working-class, plenty of tea leaves are pointing to an education-based realignment in every racial category. We'll have to wait four weeks to find out if that materializes, but it's baked into my theory that higher Hispanic turnout in Reading and Allentown than in the midterm will at this point probably net votes for Trump.
Yes, you and I fundamentally disagree on how much nonwhite working class realignment is going on, but I'll admit some swing that direction from 2020 is possible. I'll also point out that the presidential year electorate pulls in a lot of younger voters, including college students.
The problem is there aren’t very many districts like PA-10. It’s not a really a suburban/exurban district but a Harrisburg seat. I’m going through the state capitols in my head and where they are in congressional maps. Harrisburg and Lansing are the only ones I come up with as competitive. The rest are either blue districts, gerrymandered to be red or not enough population to do anything with it.
SPR has a poll with Harris up 5% in PA10. Trump won this district by 4% in 2020. Trump absolutely has to win PA10 if he wants to win the state. Hopefully this is also good for the Democrat Janelle Stelson running here to replace Re. Scott Perry
https://x.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1843997886797013429
Someone yesterday (Mark?) asked what kinds of places Harris was making gains this cycle. This is precisely the kind of place where you might expect that.
Could be wrong, I think he meant by demographic segments.
Yeah, there could be places with movements across all segments. The swing state level polls sometime miss these movements.
If you look at the swings towards Dems from 2016 -> 2020 that are over 5% they are all small to mid-sized states: (In order from highest swing to lowest): VT, CO, DE, NH, MD, CT, MA, ME, NE, KS, MN, GA, RI, OR. I'm still skeptical it's anything but noise but states like the above might account for slippage in FL/NY.
They might, but we should also look at the 2020 -> 2022 swing. Nate Cohn says that his polling data makes him think some of those patterns from the midterms may continue into 2024. That would mean relative gains for us in, well, exactly the right places: PA, MI, WI. Maybe AZ as well. And Midwest suburbs such as NE-02, Des Moines (IA-03), and KS-03. Offset by biggish losses in FL and NY.
In those states I listed Democrats generally outperformed expectations in the midterms too so I think both could be true. It may just be some shitty outliers in FL/NY or something else too though.
By "account for," do you mean counter? I certainly don't think swings toward the Democrats in other states cause losses for Democrats in New York.
Unless the swing state is exactly the major destination of the blue exodus from NY
What blue exodus? I don't think there's any such exodus, and there are undoubtedly also liberal folks moving in to New York.
I was talking about the hypothetical, how you can have a causal relationship of NY red turn and swing states bluing.
That's why I didn't mention Florida.
Yeah. FL vs NY case is kinda interesting as well. NY is the top source of transplants into FL, and obviously the transplants are quite red. So everything being equal, shouldn’t there be a red exodus (this is not hypothetical) that turns NY further bluer?
In theory, but there could be countervailing trends by remaining residents in places like Long Island.
Yea. Exactly my point. There is likely not a causal relationship. But some other things caused the movements in FL, swing states, and NY.
Account for the popular vote polls to make them work with the polls showing a drop in FL/NY. I'm skeptical of all of it but for the sake of the exercise, those states I mentioned may account for it.
The places Dems have been gaining lately tend to be ancestrally GOP, relatively white, and relatively well educated. I think PA10 fits the bill on all three of those.
Perhaps a naïve question, but what do you mean by "ancestrally GOP"? Republican since the time of Lincoln?
TBH, ancestrally is probably used too loosely and there are few places where political traditions go back to ancestors. The only one that comes to mind is Eastern TN defying all Southern logic and being Republican.
The realignment of the 1900’s means few regions have political traditions that go back far enough. And then, the early 2000’s have only solidified that. No more liberal Republicans representing New England or conservative Democrats representing the South.
Is PA-10 is a suburb district? Is that what allows PA-10 to swing much more to the left than the state as a whole?
It encompasses suburbs of Harrisburg, but also rural areas.
Thanks. If districts like PA-10 swing to the left by high single digits while the entire state more or less stays stagnant compared to 2020, which is what polls have been showing, I'd think that suggests there's slippage of a similar magnitude in other geographical areas, either the rural area or heavily minority urban areas like inner Philly, maybe both.
The question is whether the polling averages are accurately measuring the race. Right now the PA polling average on 538 includes a bunch of right-leaning polls (Trafalgar; Insider Advantage; Patriot Polling) that give Trump a lead. These same polls led 538 to give Oz a lead of 0.5% in 2022. Even though 538 tries to correct for house effects/biases of polls, they cannot totally negate the influence of red-leaning polls on their aggregation. So if Harris is leading in PA 10, this could (but need not) mean that her lead in PA is greater than what 538 is presently showing.
Yeah I agree that the current PA polling average is skewed by a bunch of right-leaning polls. However, even if we look at only the most reputable polls, I don't think any of them suggests KH is leading in PA by 9 - 10 points. If the 9 point swing in PA-10 is even close to being real, that means there's likely slippage elsewhere is all I'm saying.
Point taken.
A 9-10 point swing in one district need not mean a 9-10 point swing statewide. There might be relatively few districts like PA 10: suburbanish district that had not yet swung heavily towards Democrats. Most of the Philly suburban districts have already swung towards the Dems, with Bucks county showing the weakest swing. Parts of PA 10 are somewhat like the Philly suburbs: highly educated voters who might have supported Republicans in the past. If those voters are slower to move than their Philly area counterparts, and there are few if any other districts that are late swinger, then this swing might be somewhat isolated.
Hence a 9-10 point swing in PA 10 might only translate into a 1-3 point swing statewide, even without any countervailing swing in other areas towards Trump.
Yeah, we don't really disagree. I guess what I was saying was PA-10 represents a certain type of geographic/demographic, suburb/exurb. Its significant swing towards the left needs to be offset by the rightward swing in other dems/geographic areas to keep the entire state on the same level of competitiveness as 2020.
I'm increasingly convinced that it's wishful thinking that the 2022 electorate is gonna show up, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere. Midterm turnout has always skewed upscale and highly educated. In the past, that's meant Republican-leaning, but especially after Dobbs, it meant an electorate disproportionately friendly to Democrats in the new coalition. If more downscale and less educated voters show up in 2024, I suspect it cancels out the midterm turnout model and looks more like the 2016 and 2020 electorates that were much more Republican. Sure, Biden still won with the 2020 electorate, but after four years of additional downscale, less-educated voter realignment, I'm increasingly suspicious we'll look back on swing state polling as being too generous to Trump.
I bet the D friendly upscale electorate is not constant either. Would be a realignment further to D?
You might be correct that the downscale realignment Redding is bigger than the upscale realignment bluing, in the rust belt. I am not sure it is the case in GA/NC/TX where the downscale already went thru southern realignment but the upscale realignment is ongoing.
BTW, if there is no realignment, just pure migration redistribution, then a constant country level, some states Redding doesn’t mean there is always another state bluing. Think if we had only two states CA/TX, and the net migration CA->TX being redder than CA but bluer than TX. A static country level means both CA and TX getting bluer.
Right. I should have clarified that I was talking mostly about Pennsylvania in that response. It tracks some nationally as well, but not nearly as much in Texas or certainly Georgia, where the D-friendly upscale electorate is experiencing constant growth compared to those in the Rust Belt.
Of course, the downscale electorate is also disproportionately non-white...
I probably didn't make clear enough that my comment was primarily focused on Pennsylvania rather than nationally. But even as it applies to the nonwhite working-class, plenty of tea leaves are pointing to an education-based realignment in every racial category. We'll have to wait four weeks to find out if that materializes, but it's baked into my theory that higher Hispanic turnout in Reading and Allentown than in the midterm will at this point probably net votes for Trump.
Yes, you and I fundamentally disagree on how much nonwhite working class realignment is going on, but I'll admit some swing that direction from 2020 is possible. I'll also point out that the presidential year electorate pulls in a lot of younger voters, including college students.
The problem is there aren’t very many districts like PA-10. It’s not a really a suburban/exurban district but a Harrisburg seat. I’m going through the state capitols in my head and where they are in congressional maps. Harrisburg and Lansing are the only ones I come up with as competitive. The rest are either blue districts, gerrymandered to be red or not enough population to do anything with it.
Springfield IL -13 is D+3 I think