I probably didn't make clear enough that my comment was primarily focused on Pennsylvania rather than nationally. But even as it applies to the nonwhite working-class, plenty of tea leaves are pointing to an education-based realignment in every racial category. We'll have to wait four weeks to find out if that materializes, but it's baked into my theory that higher Hispanic turnout in Reading and Allentown than in the midterm will at this point probably net votes for Trump.
Yes, you and I fundamentally disagree on how much nonwhite working class realignment is going on, but I'll admit some swing that direction from 2020 is possible. I'll also point out that the presidential year electorate pulls in a lot of younger voters, including college students.
Of course, the downscale electorate is also disproportionately non-white...
I probably didn't make clear enough that my comment was primarily focused on Pennsylvania rather than nationally. But even as it applies to the nonwhite working-class, plenty of tea leaves are pointing to an education-based realignment in every racial category. We'll have to wait four weeks to find out if that materializes, but it's baked into my theory that higher Hispanic turnout in Reading and Allentown than in the midterm will at this point probably net votes for Trump.
Yes, you and I fundamentally disagree on how much nonwhite working class realignment is going on, but I'll admit some swing that direction from 2020 is possible. I'll also point out that the presidential year electorate pulls in a lot of younger voters, including college students.